Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 232333 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
633 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SET
OF TAFS...WITH SLIGHT CHANGES MADE TO INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE
ADDITION OF ANOTHER TIME PERIOD AT THE END OF THE EXISTING TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE TO LIFR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
VFR WILL RESUME AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND MODERATE SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TEXAS
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AREAS
OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUES MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF LATE TUES MORNING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TUES AFTERNOON
INTO THE 80S WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER TUES NIGHT THAN TONIGHT BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 500MB
RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL ALLOW MOISTURE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARM AND GENERALLY DRY. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 70S AT THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND.
SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND SOME OF THE MOUNTAINOUS BASED CONVECTION COULD DRIFT INTO THE
UPPER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE FORECAST WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE WEST.OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE GFS IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SOMETIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR
LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES CLEARING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND COOLER FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
70. CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL
INTO THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 AT THE BEACHES. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL FEATURES MOVES
OVERHEAD

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUES NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. SHOWERS OR
LIGHT RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL OCCUR WITH AND
AFTER THE FRONT THURSDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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