Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 162330 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
630 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
scattered mid clouds across the CWA early this evening with some
high clouds across extreme western portions of the CWA. Ceilings
were near 7000ft at KAPY. Expect MVFR conditions to develop
tonight into early Mon morning as moisture allows low clouds to
develop across the area. Convection across the Mexican plateau
extending northward across the Big Bend may move into the extreme
western portions of the CWA late tonight into early Mon morning.
Will mention showers in the vicinity for MFE late tonight as
outflow from Mexican thunderstorms may produce showers across the
mid and upper Rio Grande valley.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): A weak impulse is
moving over the area this afternoon, with the CWA in a general
thunderstorm outlook area. May still see some late afternoon
convection. Plus, the HRRR, for example, suggests development west
of the RGV Plains, with activity moving southeast toward the
Upper Valley late this evening. Current thinking is that the
strongest development won`t move into the Lower Valley overnight,
however. Any residual boundaries will provide a focus for better
coverage on Monday, supported by a better defined H5 impulse
moving in from the west. The day 2 outlook advertises a marginal
outlook for the CWA with the potential for slow moving clusters
and a few stronger, even low end severe cells. Residual activity
may persist through Monday night and into Tuesday.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): The midlevel trough buckles
overhead early Tuesday, slowing down and dropping southward along
the coast. The trough brings in better moisture at midlevels,
eroding the capping inversion. Add in some daytime heating, and
possibly the seabreeze boundary drifting inland during the
afternoon, will be able to spark showers and thunderstorms for the
area. Will need to monitor subsequent updates for changes in
possible strength of daytime thunderstorms. On Wednesday, the
trough drifts further east and begins to shear. This will also
drag drier air back into the region at midlevel, restrengthening
the cap. A few showers may still be possible Wednesday morning,
but for the most part will be an improving day. Ridging dominates
the region for the rest of the week, before a late-season cold
front sweeps across south Texas late Saturday. Models fairly
consistent in bringing a good chance for rain with the front, and
a cool down behind the front into the lower 80s for Sunday.

Now through Monday night: The continued presence of high pressure
over the North Gulf will support moderate southeast winds and seas
tonight. Exercise caution is advised offshore for the rest of
today due to seas in the 4 to 6 feet range, which may continue
into the tonight period. The gradient will weaken slightly Monday
and Monday night, producing light to moderate southeast winds and
low to mdt seas.

Tuesday through Thursday: Modest southeast flow continues for the
region through midweek, with high pressure interacting with
surface low moving across the central plains. This low will
disrupt the long fetch across the Gulf seen recently, so waves
will lower to 2 to 3 feet for the extended.



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