Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 251950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TUTT LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF. GENERALLY...TUTT LOW ALOFT USUALLY LEADS TO A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR ALOFT. THIS IS
NOTED IN RECENT RADAR RETURNS OF ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COAST...EVEN WITH PW VALUES STILL ABOVE 2 INCHES. WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AREAWIDE...EXCEPT FOR
BRIEF LOWER CLOUDS AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE
TUTT WILL BE OVERHEAD...PLUS MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOCALLY...SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK
SLIM INDEED. WITH THE DRIER PARCEL IN THE VICINITY...WILL LEAN
TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST TOMORROW ALONG WITH LESSER CLOUD COVER.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS COVERED...SO WILL NOT DEVIATE APPRECIABLY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SAT MORNING AND INTO SOUTH TX SUN MORNING BEFORE
STALLING. CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CWA
BEFORE THE FRONT FRONT WASHES OUT. THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS INVERTED 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF MOVES WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO PROVIDING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING INTO THE NW GULF. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH SEAS THREE FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND INTO SOUTH TX SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING ALLOWS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  91  78  93 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          77  93  77  94 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  95  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  98  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  86  79  87 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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