Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 181650 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY VFR ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH A CU FIELD IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER VALLEY AS MDT TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS THAT AN OVERNIGHT INVERSION
FORMED...AND A FEW LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BELOW 3 KFT...
BUT WITH MIXING...ANY AFTN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 3 KFT. HOW
EVER...AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR
THE NIGHT. IN GENERAL...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF INTERACTING
WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT NIGHT AND MDT TO BREEZY DURING THE
DAY. BKN VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO BKN TO OVC MVFR AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 1800 FEET
WITH HAZE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE HAZE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN MEXICO BUT VIS
WILL BE LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING DUE LIGHT WIND AND LOW MIXING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIX OF CU CLOUDS AND
SUN. DRY AIR COMING FROM THE GULF WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH
DAYTIME MIXING WITH GUSTS UP 20 TO 25 KNOTS BUT WILL DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH INVERSION DEVELOPING
AND CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING
NORTHERN CA WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MONDAY WHILE WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH TX
WHILE SOME PERTURBATIONS MOVE ACROSS THE MEAN FLOW. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING SLIGHT DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN NEAR THE SIERRA
MADRE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL BE CONCENTRATED DURING THE DAY.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA NOT IMPACTING THE
WESTERN COUNTIES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS AS THE DRY AIR MIXES NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH
CONVECTION OVER THE RGV. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90S ACROSS
THE CWA AND MID 80S NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST...A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA WHILE SE FLOW BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH BKN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS WHILE WINDS
DECOUPLED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. INTO TUESDAY... GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
INCREASING SE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH LEE TROUGH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE.
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A SIMILAR TREND AS MONDAY WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE WEST NEAR THE SIERRA MADRE WITH NO MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE CWA.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NEIGHBORING MEXICO MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN AND/OR NORTHERN HALF OF
THE BRO CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH DAMPENS
AND THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD BECOMES ORIENTED MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. DRY WEATHER MAY BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP SLIGHTLY AND THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE DRY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS AGAIN AND MORE SIGNIFICANT 500 MB DISTURBANCES PASS
OVERHEAD. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
BRO CWFA...DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL INCREASE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING EASTERLY TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 6 FEET AND
REMAIN BELOW SCEC LEVEL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DRY AIR IN THE
AREA WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND
SEAS...WITH POSSIBLE PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION...ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE INLAND.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH/LOW PRESSURE INTERACTION INTENSIFIES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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