Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 121037 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
537 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Short term weather will remain pleasant moving into the heart of
Spring Break 2024 on South Padre Island. The warming trend will
continue with inland temperatures in the lower to mid 80s today,
while beach temps remain anchored in the mid 70s. On Wednesday,
there will be a few less clouds, and inland high temps will increase
by 5 to 10 degrees, ranging from the mid 80s east to the mid 90s
across the RGV Plains. There will be a mix of clouds and sun on both
days; the clouds will consist of both upper and lower types. Light
southeast winds on Tuesday may become moderate to even breezy on
Wednesday as Gulf of Mexico high pressure interacts with Southern
Plains lower pressure. A weak short wave trough will move over the
Upper Valley and RGV Plains Tuesday night. Some models depict a
brief opportunity for some showers/thunderstorms moving off the
mountains west of the CWA, but this looks like low probability/low
impact scenario right now, but worth a mention. Rip current risk
will remain low in the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

The long term forecast remains on track. Taking a look at the
upper level pattern, a strong midlevel low digging into the Desert
Southwest will amplify the southwesterly flow aloft across Deep
South Texas Wednesday night into Thursday, while a secondary low
breaks off from the main low on Thursday. This main low will
continue to spin across the Desert Southwest through weekend
before finally traversing eastward at the tail end of the weekend
into early next week. The secondary low will tack through the
central Plains and into the Great Lakes into Saturday and will
bring a cold front through the area over the weekend. Timing
between the models continue to differ but at this time the best
time frame for FROPA through the BRO CWA will be Saturday night
into Sunday.

On Thursday a surface low will develop on the lee of the Sierra
Madre increasing the pressure gradient and leading to breezy
conditions across the region for Thursday afternoon, especially in
the lower Valley. Winds will diminish Thursday evening into the
overnight. As the aforementioned cold front moves into central
Texas on Friday, a series of perturbations will move over south
Texas and may be enough to increase rain and thunderstorm chances
Friday night into Saturday. A better chance of precipitation will
arrive Saturday into Sunday along the cold front and again Sunday
night into Monday, thanks a few continuing perturbations in the
mid level flow.

Temperatures will remain warm through the first part of the weekend
with highs in 80s/low 90s through and lows generally in the 70s.
Once the front moves through Saturday into Sunday, temperatures will
cool for the later portions of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Though there are some low clouds in the area, the TAF sites are
currently VFR with light ESE winds. Winds will become moderate
southeast today. Low clouds will increase across the area today,
but ceilings at the TAF sites will generally remain VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Today through Wednesday...Strengthening southeast winds will start
out light today but will reach small craft should exercise caution
strength by Wednesday afternoon. Low seas will build to moderate.
High pressure extending over the North Gulf will begin to interact
with pressure falls developing over the Southern High Plains.

Wednesday night through Monday...An increasing pressure gradient
will lead marginal caution conditions across the waters off the
lower Texas coast through early Friday before more favorable
conditions return for Saturday. Monday, northerly winds increase
behind a cold front slated to move through the waters Saturday
night into Sunday with Small Craft Advisories likely needed by
Monday afternoon. Expect waves heights of 4 to 5 ft increasing to
6 to 8 feet by Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Saturday through Monday which could lead to locally enhanced
winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  69  84  71 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               82  65  88  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 83  67  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         85  65  95  69 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      73  68  76  70 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  67  83  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...54-BHM


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