Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 182115
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
415 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): A weak sea breeze will
move west this afternoon and evening, but a paucity of moisture
compared to yesterday has prevented more widespread coverage.
However, current satellite and radar indicate that activity spawned
earlier today over the Southwest Gulf is moving north along the
Northeast Mexican coast. Some of this activity will move into the
area this evening. Some model guidance indicates the return of
moisture tonight and Wednesday, and convection around the area will
likely increase in coverage. Look for mid to upper 70s for low
temperatures tonight and Wednesday night, with mainly 90s for high
temperatures on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): 500mb ridge across the
south-central United States Thursday will provide subsidence
across south Texas through the rest of the week into the weekend.
A 500mb low is progged to develop across the northern Gulf coast
Saturday but will likely be absorbed into a 500mb trough
developing across the northeast U.S. Sunday into Monday. Upper
level ridge across north central Texas will dominate the weather
pattern across the CWA through the rest of the forecast period.
&&

.MARINE (Tonight through Wednesday night): Light to moderate
southeast winds and low to moderate seas with high pressure in
control across the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible at times across the coastal waters.

Thursday through Sunday...Light south winds will prevail across
the coastal waters Thursday with surface high pressure across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Light south winds will continue across
the western Gulf of Mexico Friday as the pressure gradient remains
weak across the lower Texas coast. Winds will increase slightly
from the south on Saturday as low pressure across the south-
central United States increases the pressure gradient slightly.
Moderate south to southeast winds should prevail across the lower
TX coast through the weekend.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  80  93 /  20  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  79  94 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            78  96  79  97 /  20  30  10  20
MCALLEN              79  98  79 101 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  99  79 103 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  81  88 /  30  20  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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