Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241804 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
104 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MULTI-LEVEL CLOUD DECK PREVAILS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS. WILL MENTION
TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND 21Z BEFORE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING OCCURS. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TODAY. NO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED
ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT
VALLEY TAF SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED -SHRA OR
TWO. VFR TAFS OTHERWISE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT THEN MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG WITH
BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS THE LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED ACROSS MUCH OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HAVE MOST OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND QPF GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE TEMPORARILY LIFTED...BUT THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MAY HAVE A BIT OF ENERGY
LEFT IN IT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS BUILT INTO THE TAFS FOR A FEW
HOURS FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH ANY REMAINING
RESIDUAL RAIN CHANCES. VFR TAFS OTHERWISE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL TRUNDLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...HAS PROMPTED A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WEATHER CATEGORIZATION
FROM SPC. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY...AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING...CONFIRMING THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING...BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT RADAR ALSO SHOWS MORE DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTH...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT SOME
CONVECTION WILL NOT KEEP COMING THROUGH THE DAY. THE HRRR AND NAM
SHOW SOME QPF OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

CONVECTION SHOULD END THIS EVENING...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR THE MARINE
AREAS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 80S AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S FAR WEST.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE INTRUSION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COMBINES WITH
DECENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY WITH NO OTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGES OR SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES
AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL SUPPORT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO HIGH END MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL BUILD...WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. HIGH END
MODERATE WINDS WILL REPEAT ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE
AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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