Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 261950
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHILE THE 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SLIDE NE. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH NORTHEAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER VALLEY AND EASTERN RANCHLANDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED BUT A
FEW STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.

WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FOR
THURSDAY...WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...IT WON`T FEEL QUITE SO
OPPRESSIVE WITH HEAT INDICES REMAINING UNDER 105 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THOSE
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 BUT 20 FT WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE AND BELOW CRITERIA FOR ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
RETREAT WEST THEREAFTER HOWEVER AS H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE GULF. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP...
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING...AND
PERSISTING OVER THE MARINE AREAS AND POTENTIALLY PUSHING WEST
INTO THE MID VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOW SEAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. LOW SEAS OF
THREE FEET OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  94  72  90 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          75  95  70  92 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            74  98  68  95 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              76 100  71  98 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75 102  69  99 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  89  76  86 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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