Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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215
FXUS64 KBRO 202335 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
535 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND MOIST SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG TONIGHT...SOME WHICH MAY BECOME
CLOSE TO DENSE. TOMORROW...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AROUND
SUNRISE WILL BRING PURE VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
DUE TO AN INFLUX OF DRY AIR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): 500mb trough across
west Texas and northern Mexico this afternoon will move across the
state into east TX and across the middle and lower TX coast tonight.
Subsidence will increase across the CWA tonight as southerly winds
aloft veer to the west and northwest. With the 500mb low/trough
across Louisiana and the northwest Gulf of Mexico Tuesday...north to
northwest flow aloft will reinforce the subsidence. Patchy fog will
develop across the eastern portions of the CWA late tonight into
early Tues morning before a trough/front moves through the area Tues
morning reinforcing the drier air across the area. This will allow
temperatures to be well above normal Tues afternoon.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Dry northerly flow aloft
and surface high pressure will continue to provide subsidence
across Deep South Texas on Wednesday. The mid level flow becomes
more zonal Wednesday night into Thursday with surface high
pressure moving east. Low level moisture will gradually increase
on Thursday as the surface flow becomes more southerly. A dry weak
cold front is expected to move across Deep South Texas Friday.
Winds will shift to northwest by Friday afternoon in the wake of
the front. Surface high pressure moves into the northwest Gulf of
Mexico by Saturday resulting in winds veering to the northeast
then east. Strong southeast flow develops on Sunday ahead of the
next storm system across the Plains. This will allow low level
moisture to return to the area. The weather will warm through
Thursday, with high temperatures well above normal, from the mid
80s to the lower 90s. Temperatures will be slightly lower on
Friday behind the cold front but overall temperatures will still
remain above normal.

MARINE (Tonight through Tuesday night): Seas were near 5 feet with
north winds near 6 knots at buoy020 this afternoon. Winds will be
light and variable across the coastal waters tonight before low
pressure across east TX brings a trough/front through the coastal
waters Tues morning. Moderate to strong west winds will develop in
the wake of the trough/front and small craft advisories will likely
be needed for the offshore waters Tues morning through Tues
afternoon before the pressure gradient begins to weaken across the
western Gulf of Mexico Tues afternoon. Moderate northwest winds
Thurs afternoon will veer to the north and decrease Tues night as a
result.

Wednesday through Saturday: Light to occasionally moderate northwest
to north winds will prevail across the Lower Texas Coastal waters
Wednesday as high pressure spreads over the area. Winds will
gradually turn to the southeast Wednesday night then south on
Thursday as high pressure moves east. Strengthening low pressure
system across the Plains will support an uptick local winds Thursday
night with small craft should exercise caution conditions possible.
North to northwest winds develop on Friday with the passage of a
weak front. Winds increase and become northeast to east on Saturday
as high pressure moves eastward.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

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