Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 011837 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
137 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 3600FT AT KMFE TO NEAR 10000FT AT KBRO.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS NORTH WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WITH A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS FROM MVFR AT MFE TO LIFR AT HRL. FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING...AROUND 14Z... WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND DIRECTIONS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED FROM THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONFIDENCE LOW OF PLACING
IN TAFS. OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITH MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR AFT 08Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE RADAR IS CLEAR...WINDS ARE LIGHT...AND THE SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. WHAT THIS MEANS IS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN FACT...REPORTS OF 1-3 MILES NOW
OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER VALLEY. UPPER TROF IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING TROF WITH PWATS OF 1.3 INCHES PROGGED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TODAY BUT NEAR 1.6 IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
VALLEY WHERE DRY AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT IN. WINDS WILL
BECOME EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS SFC HIGH PRESSURE...SPEEDS A TICK HIGHER IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SFC CONVERGENCE COULD
LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER/TSTORM IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS IN MIND...ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG IS IN THE OFFERING FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRIVE
WIND SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITH 10-15 MPH
COMMON...AND 8-12 MPH EVERYWHERE ELSE. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AROUND 90 IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND MID 90S ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN H5 RIDGE OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST AS AN H5 LOW OVER TENNESSEE REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE H5 RIDGE WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER TEXAS MID TO LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S AT
THE BEACHES...NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST...AND THE MID 90S FAR WEST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN...HAD NO REAL
ISSUES USING THE SUPERBLEND AS THE PRIMARY FORECAST FRAMEWORK.
IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOKED CONSISTENT AND DID
NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM EACH OTHER.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A FLAT PRESSURE FIELD WITH A WEAK
GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEEK...RESULTING
IN FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 54 FEET THURSDAY
MORNING. AT 55 FEET MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE. THIS RIVER FORECAST FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE IS BASED ON
THE CURRENT AND CONTINUED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR
IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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