Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 012303 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
603 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS STILL PREVAILING AS SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM EAST TO
WEST. PATCHY FOG AND LOWERED CEILINGS WILL BRING MVFR TO THE
AERODROMES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...VFR IS LIKELY TO RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEARBY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TEXAS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND THE GROUND
REMAINING NEARLY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BELIEVE SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS TUES AFTERNOON BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A 500MB RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD AS
A 500MB LOW OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTIANS REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
TEXAS BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PIEDMONT LIFTS NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES...NEAR 90 ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE MID 90S FAR WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH
NIGHT WILL BE IN MID 70S.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TEXAS MOVING
EASTWARD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX
COAST TUESDAY AND TUES NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 52 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 54 FEET LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT 55 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 22 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 23 FEET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER
EXCEEDS THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE
RIVER FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT
AND CONTINUED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV



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