Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 230543 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1243 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions to prevail tonight and Wednesday. Sea
breeze may become activity once again 16-22Z Wednesday moving from
the coast to west of highway 69C/281 after 19Z. Have mentioned
VCSH in all the TAFs to cover this low probability. Any showers
that do for are likely to be brief with moderate to possible heavy
rainfall. Light east winds become moderate with some gusts in wake
of the passing sea breeze.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 705 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Clouds will dissipate this evening with high pressure
bringing VRB winds overnight through mid morning Wednesday.
Increasing tropical moisture will allow for possible seabreeze
convection during the late morning and afternoon, with easterly
winds expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500mb ridge across
northwest Mexico and the 500mb inverted trough across the southwest
Gulf of Mexico will provide a northeast flow aloft across the lower
Texas coast tonight into Wednesday. The remnants of Harvey will move
into the Bay of Campeche tonight and possibly redevelop into a
tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Low to mid level moisture will be
higher across the southwest Gulf of Mexico associated with the
remnants of Harvey. GOES-16 satellite images indicate precipitable
water values near 2 inches across the western Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon and the 18Z BRO sounding measured 2.18 inches of
precipitable water. Will likely see isolated to scattered convection
continue to develop offshore the lower Texas coast tonight and some
of these showers will move across the coastal sections of the CWA
late tonight into Wed morning. Seabreeze convection will develop
across the coastal sections late Wed morning and move inland Wed
afternoon.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): The first half of the long
term remains largely uncertain due to the potential redevelopment
of Harvey. The latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian-GEM continues to trend
with its forecast track to move over, very near or just northeast
of the Lower Texas coast on Friday. All interests across the Rio
Grande Valley and along the lower Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system. A deep surge of tropical moisture will
overspread the region Thursday night through Saturday. Rain
chances will remain high (50-70 percent) Thursday night through
Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible
Thursday through Saturday, mainly along and east of the I-69C
corridor. Heavier rain is possible along the coast, especially in
stronger and more persistent rain bands. Nuisance poor drainage
flooding will also be possible. Rain chances will gradually
diminish Saturday night into early next week. Elevated rip
currents will be possible at area beaches Thursday through Sunday.
Coastal flooding will also be possible Thursday night through
Saturday.

MARINE (Tonight through Wednesday night): Seas were near 3 feet
with east winds near 10 knots at buoy020 this afternoon. Light east
winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight with surface
high pressure across the northern Gulf coast and the remnants of
Harvey moving into the Bay of Campeche. Winds will shift to the
northeast Wednesday but remain light as Harvey possibly redevelops
into a tropical cyclone. Long period swells will develop across the
southwest Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and move into the far offshore
waters of the lower Texas coast late Wed night into early Thurs
morning.

Thursday through Sunday night: Most of the forecast period remains
highly uncertain due to the exact track and strength of the
potential redevelopment of Harvey. Latest model data continues to
trend with its forecast track to move over, very near or just
northeast of the Lower Texas coast Friday. Confidence remains high
for some impacts for higher seas, gale force winds and widespread
heavy showers/thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday.
Adverse marine conditions may develop as early as Thursday
afternoon with hazardous marine conditions likely Thursday night
through at least Saturday night. Marine conditions will gradually
improve Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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