Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231750 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...CU field remains thick this morning due to moisture
stuck in the lowest levels. Mixing of drier air aloft will thin
the CU field later this afternoon, but TEMPO bkn025 may still
occur in the next couple hours. With drier air already down to
4000 feet this morning, cloud cover will have less vertical
development, so no showers are forecast in the region. Lower
clouds will return overnight, generally MVFR. Expect winds to drop
to around 10 knots overnight, which should keep any fog formation
from getting dense. Another day of thick lower clouds tomorrow,
while winds increase again to around 15kts.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...IR satl imagery and surface obs indicate some ragged
low level cld cover around the RGV reducing ceilings down to MVFR
levels in many areas. After sunrise the daytime heating and low
level mixing will allow for a return to VFR levels through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Lingering moisture later
tonight will allow for a return of more mvfr or ifr ceilings late
in the current taf period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): 500 mb ridging will be steadily
strengthening over south Texas and northern Mexico through Mon and
Tues. This will increase the subsidence and will decrease the
instability and PWAT throughout the short term period limiting the
conv potential. The higher terrain of northeast Mexico may provide
enough orographic lift during the max heating on both Mon and Tues
to fire some conv to our southwest. At this time do not expect this
conv to survive long enough to move into the RGV. The NAM/GFS and
ECWMF guidance all place pops through the short range period in the
single digits and will stick with these values considering the
strength of the 500 mb ridge axis.

The 1000-500 mb thickness values will be gradually increasing at the
500 mb ridge axis strengthens. So expect temps to gradually increase
through Tues. MAV/MET and ECMWF temp guidance are in pretty close
agreement in the short term. Will go with a general blend of the
these model sets for highs/lows through Tues.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): No significant changes
to the long term portion of the forecast. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Wednesday night
through Sunday courtesy of a pair of closed 500 mb low pressure
systems over the western United States producing a west-southwest
to east-northeast mid-level flow over the BRO CWFA. Since much of
the convection is likely to initiate over the neighboring higher
terrain of Mexico and then advect into Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley, future shifts will need to monitor for the
potential for severe thunderstorms during the aforementioned time

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Buoy020 reports a SSE wind around 8
knots with swells around 3 feet. The PGF will be strengthening over
the lower TX bay and Gulf waters through Tuesday as an elongated
frontal system remains elongated over the central states. This may
push the marine conditions up close to SCEC criteria later tonight
into Tues.

Tuesday night through Sunday: Small Craft Advisory winds and seas
will dominate through a majority of the period with high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico interacting intensely with thermal low
pressure over northern Mexico and low pressure in the Central
Plains. Wind and sea conditions may improve during the final 24
hours of the forecast period, but Small Craft Exercise Caution may
still be needed.


.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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