Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 221159
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
659 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS CLOSE TO KBRO WILL BE IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OVER THE GULF WATERS. MENTIONED TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY FROM THE EAST. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE CONCENTRATED SOUTHWARD AND A DRY AIRMASS TOWARDS N
TEXAS. MEANWHILE...IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMS A TROUGH ACROSS
THE DESERT SW LIFTS NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE WHICH IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS OF THE 00Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED 2.0 INCHES. GFS
STILL SHOWS IN THE MID LAYERS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE OF AROUND 70
PERCENT AVAILABLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
80S WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A GRADUAL NORTHEAST DRY AIR FILTERING
INTO THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. STILL DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE WEST
SO THERE STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH MORE OF THE DRY AIR MASS ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL AID FOR MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM BROOKS
COUNTY TO NORTHERN HIDALGO. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE
MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE CWA AND LOW 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DRIER AIR IS NOTED ALOFT IN THE BUFF SOUNDING AND
CROSS SECTIONS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT NO
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH OUT THE DAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EVEN AS A LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP ON
ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX TUESDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUOY020 HOLDS STEADY SCEC CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT THIS SAME PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WE KEEP
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 OVER NORTHEAST
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH REALLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS KEEPING
AN EASTERLY FETCH AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. DO NOT
EXPECT SCA AT THIS TIME...AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM KEPT WINDS AND SEAS MODERATE FOR TODAY. ON THURSDAY...
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE AND
FILTERING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SWELLS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY COMBINED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. BY THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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