Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 200959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
359 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): The highly amplified
midlevel pattern remains in place across the US through the next
36 hours, with a trough along the Rockies and ridging centered
just off Florida. This is inducing the next area of low pressure
dropping into the Texas Panhandle. Breezy southeast winds will
dominate again today, but not quite as brisk as yesterday. Highs
will again reach the upper 80s areawide. The next cold front will
slowly drop southward across Texas today, bringing an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow
morning. The front will stall just off to the north, holding most
of the precipitation to the northern and western valley. While
best dynamics remain off to the north, still some midlevel
impulses that may be able to enhance showers to spark some thunder
near the front. The weakening front will still be in the region
Wednesday, but a lack of upper level support will keep rain
chances minimized through sunset.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): 500mb trough across
the western United States and a 500mb ridge across the southeast
U.S. Wednesday will continue to provide a southwest flow aloft
across the state Thursday and Friday before the upper trough moves
across the central U.S. Saturday. At the surface...a weak cold
front moves into south Texas Wednesday before stalling just north
of the CWA Wed night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along
the front and move into the northern ranchlands Wed night. The
convective boundary will lift northward Thursday and rain chances
will diminish across the CWA Thursday into Thurs night as the
front washes out and lifts northward. The focus for convection
will remain well to the north of the Rio Grande valley Friday
before another cold front moves through south TX Saturday. Will
not mention any rain chances Friday and Fri night and mention a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Elevated
convection is expected to develop across the CWA Sat night in the
wake of the front. The rest of the forecast period is dependent on
the frontal boundary draped across the area as the GFS and the
ECMWF differ on the location of the front with the ECMWF farther
north than the GFS. Will mention a slight chance to chance of
showers or thunderstorms through the rest of the weekend into
early next week as low to mid level moisture remains high across
northeast Mexico/deep south TX through Monday.

.MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Marine conditions still
producing higher swells across the Gulf waters this morning.
Advisories will remain in effect for the open Gulf through noon,
when seas will relax to 4 to 6 feet. The cold front will encroach
on the marine areas after sunset, with lighter winds expected into
the day Wednesday. With the front in the vicinity, some shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected, especially later tonight.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Light to moderate southeast
winds will prevail across the coastal waters Wed night into
Thursday as a weak cold front across south Texas allows the
pressure gradient to weaken across the lower TX coast. Winds
should increase slightly from the southeast Thurs night into
Friday as the pressure gradient increases slightly as the front
weakens and retreats northward. Moderate southeast winds will
prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Friday and increase Fri
night before veering to the south on Saturday. Small craft
advisories may be needed for the offshore waters Fri night into

BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  70  79  70 /  10  30  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          84  70  83  70 /  10  30  20  30
HARLINGEN            86  71  86  70 /  20  30  20  30
MCALLEN              87  71  87  69 /  10  20  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      90  70  87  67 /  20  30  20  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  68  76  69 /  10  30  20  30

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ150-155-170-175.


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