Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 170052 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
652 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY SATURATED SOUNDING
MAINLY BETWEEN THE 850 MB TO 950 MB LEVEL. THE NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR DEEP SOUTH TX
SHOWS THAT THE LOWER ATMS LEVELS WILL REMAIN SATURATED
AS THE OLD FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND ALLOWS A
RETURNING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
POTENTIAL IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ON AFTER 06Z THROUGH SUNRISE WED.
AFTER SUNRISE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN INDICATE PRETTY DECENT
DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
CEILINGS TO IMPROVE BACK UP MVFR/VFR LEVELS LATE IN THE CURRENT
TAF PACKAGE. WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS LAMP AND NAM TAF GUIDANCE
WHICH ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC OF BOTH THE CEILINGS AND VSBYS FOR THE
RGV.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...COLD FRONT ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD.
THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE COASTAL BEND WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC COAST WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL INVIGORATING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULL NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE BEST
AND HIGHER POPS ARE LOCATED. LEAN TOWARDS THE BETTER AND HIGHER POP
ABOVE 30 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WE WILL STILL BE UNDER SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LVL
CLOUDS THURSDAY MAINTAINING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL COUNTIES WHILE TO THE WEST IN THE
LOW 70 DEGREES. ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH EXITS THE CWA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. DRY AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN LOWERING POPS AND BRINGING A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S BUT WILL DROP
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACHED THE LOW TO MID 50S
ALONG THE RIVER AND TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE UPPER 40S WITH
NO CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT ONLY REACHING THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CWA
BOTH DAYS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DEVELOPS
AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS TEXAS AND MOST OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF 12Z MODEL
RUN WHERE GFS HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. LEFT INHERITED 20 POPS FOR MONDAY AS THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 6 FEET WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 19 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WILL WORD SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TO REPLACE SCA THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE EAST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WED AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS BY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY TO SCEC
LEVEL AND SHIFT NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCA POSSIBLE
BUILDING SEAS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. BY THE WEEKEND...DRY
AIR FILTERS INTO THE GULF WATERS AND THE WINDS AND SEAS HIGH EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND BUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER RETURNING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. LATE INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR EAST WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LEFT SEAS CLOSE TO 6 FEET AND WINDS INCREASE
CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  66  75  67  76 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          65  76  66  77 /  30  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            64  76  65  77 /  30  20  20  20
MCALLEN              64  77  66  77 /  30  30  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      61  75  62  73 /  30  30  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  74  68  74 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ




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