Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 222002
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
302 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGES AND GFS40 250MB HEIGHT/WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY DRIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE 250MB LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA MOVES LITTLE IF ANY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS A RESULT.
SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT/SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THIS SOLUTION BY
MID WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL IMPACT THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE ERODING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND RESTRENGTHENING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MADE ONLY JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG
THE BEACHES...MID 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER 90S TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  93  79  96 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          79  95  79  97 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            78  97  78  99 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              79 100  79 101 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 102  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  90  81  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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