Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 222119
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
319 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Ridging aloft and
high pressure at the surface have continued to provide plenty of
subsidence throughout the entire column this afternoon across Deep
South Texas, leading to hot and dry conditions once again.
Temperatures have reached record-breaking levels at Brownsville
and McAllen, with Brownsville breaking century-old records two
days in a row. Regarding fire weather concerns, relative humidity
values have been below 15% area-wide this afternoon, but winds are
below criteria for any Red Flag Warnings. Thursday, there will be
elevated fire spread and growth concerns again with slightly
higher winds shifting to the south/southeast as a low pressure
system develops across the Central Plains. 20-foot winds will
likely be below the threshold for Red Flag Warning issuance, but
will pass on to the next shifts to update, if needed. The main
change to the forecast was a slight uptick in temperatures for
Thursday, which will put daily high temperature records in
jeopardy again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Above normal temperatures
and generally rain-free conditions expected through the forecast
period. A weak and dry cold front will through Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley on Friday. The passage of the front will usher
a little cooler and drier air over the region this weekend but
temperature will remain above normal. A deep 500 mb trough will dig
over the western states early next week. This may allow another weak
cold front to move through the region late in the period. Moisture
will begin to increase on Sunday as breezy southeast winds develop.
No change to current thinking for temperatures through the period,
will continue to lean towards the warmer ECMWF numbers for highs and
a model blend for lows.

&&

.MARINE (Now through Thursday night): Light winds and low seas
will continue through the afternoon and evening across the Lower
Texas Coastal waters as high pressure slowly moves eastward. Winds
will shift back out of the south/southeast late tonight and
increase during the day on Thursday as a low pressure system in
the Central Plains tightens the pressure gradient. Seas will
eventually build in response to 3 to 4 feet by Friday morning.

Friday through Monday...A weak cold front is expected to move
through the Lower Texas Coastal waters on Friday. Moderate southerly
winds Friday morning will weaken and shift to the northwest in the
afternoon. Moderate northeast winds and building seas may reach SCEC
criteria Friday night and Saturday as surface high pressure surges
across the northern Gulf. Strong southeasterly flow will develop
Saturday night through Sunday night across the Lower Texas Gulf
waters with Small Craft Advisories becoming likely during this
time.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  63  86  68  87 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          60  91  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            58  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              58  97  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      56 101  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  77  70  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...65
Long Term...63
Graphicast/Upper Air...62



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