Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231039
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
439 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Upper level Cirrus clouds
continue to stream northeastward over South Texas this morning with
southwest flow bringing much drier air below it in the mid levels.
At the surface, nearly stationary high pressure over North Texas
will maintain northeast flow through the short term period.
Temperatures tonight have dropped into the 40s across most areas
with the Upper Valley falling into the 30s due to dry air and light
winds. This afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than
yesterday, with highs near normal in the low 70s, with northerly
flow and 1000-500mb thicknesses falling a couple decameters. Rain-
free conditions are expected today as mean RH values range from 20
to 30% below 700mb and from 5 to 10% in the mid levels. Moisture
will increase from the south late tonight into Wednesday morning,
bringing increasing cloud cover and rain chances across mainly the
southeastern corner of the area, including the lower Rio Grande
Valley and southern coastal waters.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): The most active day
during the long term portion of the forecast is anticipated to be
on Saturday, as the approach of a weak cold front from the north
combines with the passage of a 500 mb trough to produce scattered
convection. Up until that time, isolated precipitation is
anticipated, as a closed 500 mb low initially over northwest
Mexico slowly moves east-northeast across the Desert Southwest
and the Lone Star State. The persistent rain chances, coupled with
significant cloud cover overhead through a majority of the
period, will produce temperatures at near normal levels throughout
the entire forecast period.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Surface high pressure over North
Texas will maintain moderate northeast winds through the period with
moderate seas ranging from 4 to 5 feet. Rain chances will increase
Tuesday night into early Wednesday for the southern coastal waters
as moisture surges northward.

Wednesday Night through Monday: Moderate winds and seas will
prevail along the Lower Texas Coast, and these conditions will
likely create Small Craft Exercise Caution seas for the Gulf of
Mexico waters from 0 to 20 and/or 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore
Wednesday night through Saturday night. The passage of a cold
front during the weekend will produce stronger winds and rougher
seas, with Small Craft Advisories more likely Sunday and Monday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  50  63  51 /  10  40  30   0
BROWNSVILLE          70  51  64  51 /  10  40  40   0
HARLINGEN            69  49  64  49 /  10  20  30   0
MCALLEN              71  49  65  50 /  10  20  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  46  65  47 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  53  61  54 /  10  40  40   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...Birchfield-65
Long term...Tomaselli-66
WX4PPT/Meso...Hallman-56



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