000
FXUS64 KBRO 141726 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1226 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEADY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET. IT THEN LOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH INITIAL
CIGS FORMING AT MVFR LEVELS BETWEEN 2-3K FEET THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND SATURDAY MORNING
UNTIL HEATING COMMENCES AND MIXING OF SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
BEGINS TO MIX OUT MORE THEN LIKELY AFTER 16Z OR EVEN CLOSER TO
NOON CDT. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO MAINTAIN LEVELS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281/69C LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT
THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 15-25 KNOTS SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS RATHER HIGH FOR BOTH CEILING AND WIND FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR CURRENT TRENDS. SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING. RADAR RETURNS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE MORE STABLE
INLAND AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE COAST
THIS MORNING UNDER THE INVERSION THEN DROPPED THEM FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS INCREASED MIXING OF DRIER AIR MIXES THE MOIST LOWER
LAYERS. IF ANY SHOWERS HANG ON THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DAMPEN ANY
ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RATHER
RAPIDLY NORTH AT AROUND 25 MPH.

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

MARINE...STEADY STATE WIND AND SEA REGIME EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATE. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NOT
EXPECTED TO FULLY MIX TO THE WATER SURFACE DUE TO COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AS SURFACE HEATING INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED PATCHES
OF STRATOCU CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE KBRO AND KHRL EARLY THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF BEGINS TO INCREASE. SCT-BKN
VFR DECKS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING BECOMING INTERMITTENT THROUGH
THE DAY AS WELL AS GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO WEST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED 30-50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KBRO AND ARE MOVING NNW
WITH THE SE FLOW. THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
WATER THIS MORNING WITH ONE OR TWO MOVING OVER LAND THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SMALL LOW TOPPED AND
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AND FILLING IN.
THE LOWER CIGS ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281/69C WHERE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL INFLUENCE LOCAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH A ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT
KEEPING TIME WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW TRUNDLES FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TOWARD NORTH
TEXAS. THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH COMPLEX WILL COME INTO PLAY
AFTER SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
NORMAL FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND AS SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
RATCHET UP TO MDT AND EVEN BREEZY NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ASHORE WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. COASTAL
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES. SATURDAY WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES TO
ESSENTIALLY NORMAL VALUES FROM THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE MID 80S
WEST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL AGAIN ACCOMPANY MODERATE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALTHOUGH LATE IN THE DAY PRESSURE FALLS MAY REACH
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KILL THE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX A
BIT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A MODEST TO STRONG CAP CENTERED
AROUND 5 KFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DUE TO
THE EFFECT OF SUBSIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM 5 TO 10 KFT...SERVING
TO LOCK IN CLOUD COVER AND KEEP ANY SHOWERS DOWN TO THE GARDEN
VARIETY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...EURO AND
GFS IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH S/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS AND ANOTHER S/W TROUGH DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE LATTER WILL QUICKLY
DIVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE FORMER CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD. A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ROUGHLY EAST OF HWY 281 EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
FORMER S/W TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR A SUNDAY
MORNING PASSAGE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THE LATTER S/W TROUGH
DIVES INTO TEXAS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE OUT IN THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
CAPPING INVERSION. GFS CAME IN ALOT WINDIER AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MODEL AND THE EURO. IN FACT...GFS PAINTS 34-35 KNOTS SFC
SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE EURO IS 15-20
KNOTS. WONT BUY IN TO THE GFS FULLY BUT WILL RAISE WINDS SUNDAY TO
JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
SKIES CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK LOOKING PRETTY GOOD ATTM. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
70S WITH 80S BY TUESDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT IN HANDLING THE
UPPER FEATURE. BOTH MODELS SWING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
SINCE DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES WILL TAKE AN ALL BLEND SOLUTION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S BOTH
DAYS.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL. FORECAST WINDS WILL BE LISTED AS 15
KTS...BUT MAY GUST FROM 15 TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. WAVE HEIGHTS
OFFSHORE WILL REACH 4 TO 6 FEET AT TIMES. THUS...PERIODS OF SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND TO MAINTAIN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AS STRONGER MARINE WINDS
BRING MOISTURE ONSHORE WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER...CREATING
CONVERGENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL GO DOWNHILL IN A HURRY SUNDAY. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
WINDS WILL GET PRETTY STRONG WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 7 TO 11 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH SEAS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH MONDAY. A SHORT WINDOW OF
FAVORABLE MAY EXIST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING BACK INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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