000
FXUS64 KBRO 282106
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
306 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE CA COAST WHILE A WEST TO EAST FLOW IS IN PLACE
IN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE COASTAL
TROUGH IS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY WHILE THE
CANADIAN HIGH WRAPS AROUND IT WITH A NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. A VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY BUT IT REMAINS LIGHT
IN NATURE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NO MORE THAN ONE TO THREE
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AS THE COLD AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THE CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE 700 FEET OR 1200 FEET WITH HAZE
CONDITIONS REDUCING VIS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC WILL HELP DIG FURTHER SOUTH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS OVER CA
COAST. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE COASTAL LOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
NOT MUCH MOVEMENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN
AS RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE WEST. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO
50 PERCENT AND LESS TOWARDS THE WEST LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN EVEN
MORE INTO SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CON THE COOLER SIDE TO THE W
AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH
THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF
WATERS. STILL THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
MOISTURE COMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND NEAR 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. TONIGHT MOISTURE WRAP AROUND THE GULF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA BUT THE MAIN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST UNITED STATES MONDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
TX MOVES NORTHWARD. THE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WED AFTERNOON/WED EVENING. CLOUDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL RETURN WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A COASTAL LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
BUT DUE TO THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS...THE SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SCA CRITERIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND AS
A RESULT SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE LIKELY WED NIGHT. VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  56  67  58  75 /  30  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          56  67  56  77 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            55  69  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              54  69  55  80 /  20  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  71  58  78 /  20  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  66  59  72 /  30  20  10  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ170-175.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
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