Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS64 KBRO 270856
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
356 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
HELP DEFLECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE VALLEY IN THE
SHORT TERM. THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE ADVANCING FRONT AND THE BROAD SUMMERTIME RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
WITH THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE REGION TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BE
GENTLER...AROUND 10 KNOTS. ANY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE SFC LAYER...WITH VERY DRY AIR REMAINING ABOVE 5000
FT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UP COMING
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN. NO REAL SHOT
OF COOLER AIR TO SURGE INTO TEXAS EVEN WITH AN EXPECTED COLD
FRONT DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. GULF MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE EXPECTED POST FRONTAL
FRIDAY.

THE MERIDIONAL PATTERN REACHES ITS HIGHEST AMPLITUDE FRIDAY AS A
STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. AS THE PATTERN DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING A MODEST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF IS EXPECTED
WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A LITTLE STRONGER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR THE ADVERTISE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE A BIT QUICKER MOVING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL PUSH OF NORTHEAST WINDS IS WEAK WITH LITTLE COOLING
AFFECT. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE EASTERN LONG
WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. OVERALL ONLY MODEST COOLING TAKES PLACES WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATE MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS SHALLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY AND DEEPENS EVER SO SLIGHTLY FRIDAY IN WAKE OF
THE SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NO DOUBT THE POP GUIDANCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONFIDENCE IS WANING IF
THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE
AND SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TAKES PLACE WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW SO WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THU-FRIDAY BUT HAVE BEGUN TO REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE.

AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WITH A PLEASANT DRY SATURDAY IN STORE. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR
PATTERN IS JUST IN ITS BEGINNING STAGES WITH THE RIDGE QUICKLY
EXITING STAGE RIGHT AND GULF MOISTURE RETURNING SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLY SHOWING UP BY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH APPROACHING RATHER QUICKLY.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN
FRONT
ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND BROAD GULF RIDGE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 15 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TODAY...AND SPREAD INTO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON AREA WATERS TODAY. THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH SFC GRADIENT RELAXING. WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CREATE SEAS OF AROUND 4
FEET...RELAXING TO 2 TO 3 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WEAKENS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY FRIDAY. MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS THE STRONGEST
GRADIENT TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  73  84  70 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  71  85  69 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            87  69  86  67 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              88  68  88  69 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      90  67  89  67 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  76  84  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/59





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.