Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 241950
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):
Water vapor imagery indicates a large height center across the
Southern United States and the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Convection
is being suppressed over the Northwest Gulf and East Texas. Broad
high pressure is over much of the Gulf. The ridge will remain in
control through the short term, though it may weaken slightly and
shift northeast a bit on Thursday. Some moisture may surge north
from the Bay of Campeche tonight, bringing coastal showers
Thursday morning, and perhaps the possibility of a few land
showers with the sea breeze Thursday afternoon. Thursday afternoon
heat index values will peak at around 105 degrees. Little change
was made to the inherited forecast, with a model consensus forming
the backbone of the forecast.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday):
Long term models are having a tough time of it recently,
especially out along the east coast, which is having major
implications on the final forecast locally. Keep a close eye on
the forecast until the model can better get their acts together.
Starting Friday, the H5 ridge will be shifting eastward across the
southeastern US, with south Texas in a weak upper flow pattern.
The generally ridge placement will be able to draw some deeper
moisture into the region starting this weekend. Models have backed
off on the arrival of the moisture, focusing it more on Sunday and
Monday, when PW values reach 2 inches. Moisture wanes starting
Tuesday, with a slight chance for the seabreeze to activate, but
overall dry Tuesday. The middle to end of next week remain
muddled, varying between a moister southeasterly sfc flow and a
dry northerly flow. With model bringing a certain tropical feature
into the vicinity of Florida, feeling that the moister southeast
flow scenario is going to win out. With that said, have kept
slight chances for seabreeze showers Wednesday, and kept
temperature generally below 100 degrees areawide.
Now through Thursday night...High pressure centered over the
Southeast United States and the Northern Gulf of Mexico will
dominate, producing light to moderate southeast winds and low to
moderate seas along the lower Texas coast. Moisture will surge north
from the Bay of Campeche tonight, bringing coastal showers to the
area Thursday morning.
Friday through Sunday: Weekend forecast looks good for marine
concerns, as presssure gradient remains light, keeping seas
modest. Winds should stay below 15 knots, keeping seas under 3
feet. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is possible, but this
may be delayed until Saturday Night when better atmospheric
moisture arrives in the western Gulf.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 91 78 91 / 10 20 10 20
BROWNSVILLE 78 94 77 94 / 10 20 10 20
HARLINGEN 76 95 76 95 / 10 20 10 30
MCALLEN 77 98 77 99 / 0 10 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 100 76 99 / 0 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 88 80 86 / 20 20 20 10
This product is also available on the web at: