Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 030522 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1222 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT THE
AERODROMES BUT MVFR IS EXPECTED TO SET IN OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW
DECK OF CLOUDINESS AROUND 1500 FEET FORMING UP. VFR WILL RESUME
AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS AND
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD IN
LATE OVERNIGHT AFT 09Z. SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT HOLDING MVFR
THROUGH MID MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
FRIDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAT A NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
ABLE TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RACING NORTH
ALONG THE COAST. THIS LINE ALSO STABILIZED THE ATMS AFTER...SO THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE AFTN SHOULD STAY DRY. DRIER AIR ALREADY
FILTERING INTO THE REGION, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES. FOCUS TOMORROW WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE A BETTER TIME
RISING DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MODELS ARE HANDLING DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REASONABLY...REACHING 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF STREAMER SHOWER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY
DECREASE IN MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING OVER
THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
FLATTENING NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE WEST TO EXTEND
OVER TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL
KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY...FADING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BY NEXT WEEK A MORE STABLE PATTER WILL SET UP
AS RIDGING OVER THE WEST BUILDS EAST. SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OTHERWISE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. WIND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS, WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL RISE BACK
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUMPING
UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
INITIALLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO EAST TEXAS...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL THE WEST GULF WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS. THE PATTERN WILL BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. LOWER PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BOOST SOUTHEAST WINDS SLIGHTLY AT
NIGHT...MAKING SMALL CRAFT EXERICSE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. ISOLATED MARINE CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE THROUGH THE FORECAST...NEVER
COMPLETELY SHUTTING OFF.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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