Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 172006
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
306 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): A 500 hPa ridge anchored
over North Central and Northwest Mexico will support short term
subsidence and stability, as well as hot weather, over deep South
Texas and the RGV. Almost without saying, above normal to near
record high temperatures will prevail on Sunday. High temperatures
Sunday will range from the lower to mid 90s near the coast to triple
digits across portions of the Mid and Upper Valley. Heat index
values will be in the 105 to 110 degree range for a few hours over
most inland areas, and may even poke briefly into heat advisory
territory at places like McAllen and Rio Grande City. Surface low
pressure across West Texas interacting with high pressure across the
Gulf of Mexico will support moderate to strong southeast winds on
Sunday. Overnight low temperatures will range from 75 to 80 under
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Relative humidity values across
the Upper Valley will range from 25 to 35 percent Sunday afternoon
with 20 ft winds of 10 to 15 mph and with drying fuels. Thus,
monitoring of fire weather parameters should be sufficient for now,
with no supplemental fire weather products needed.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): 500mb ridge across the
southwest United States Monday will continue to provide subsidence
across south Texas Monday through early Tuesday before any
impacts reach the CWA from the broad area of low pressure over the
Gulf of Honduras moves northwest across the Yucatan Peninsula
into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday into Monday. The global models
continue to show a wide range of possible tracks of the tropical
low assuming it develops into a tropical depression or tropical
storm during the next couple of days. The GFS continues to prog
the low moving towards the northeast Gulf Tuesday while the ECMWF
progs a westward track across the southwest Gulf approaching the
Mexican coast Wednesday. At this point with no tropical cyclone
defined yet and no official forecast track...will go with a blend
of the models for now which at least brings some rain
chances...mainly across the coastal sections of the CWA...by
Wednesday through the rest of the week. Temperatures will still be
hot Monday and Tuesday but the increase in clouds and rain
chances through the rest of the forecast period may provide some
relief to the heat across the Rio Grande valley and northern
ranchlands.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Sunday night): Moderate to fresh southeast
winds and moderate seas will prevail. Diurnal trends, driven in part
by low pressure over North and West Texas interacting with high
pressure over the Gulf, will support SCEC conditions on the Laguna
Madre by day and on the Gulf waters by night.

Monday through Thursday...Light east to southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Monday with a weak frontal
boundary across northeast Texas and a tropical low possibly across
the southern Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the forecast is highly
dependent on the future track of the broad area of low pressure
over the Gulf of Honduras. Northeast winds may develop across the
western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and increase assuming this feature
moves more to the west than expected. Even if the tropical low
moves more to the north than west...swells will develop across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday into Tuesday and propagate westward
into the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  96  79  93 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          80  97  78  96 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            79 100  77  98 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              79 103  78 101 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 105  77 103 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  89  80  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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