Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 090548 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1248 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR TODAY. RADAR HAS SETTLED DOWN AFTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING WEST TO EAST ALOFT. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE TODAY. CAN`T RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STREAMER SHOWERS
AGAIN THIS MORNING AND A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE EVIDENT ABOUT 100
MILES OFFSHORE. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP AROUND MID DAY
BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. THE FORECAST IS FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND ATMS INSTABILITY HAS HELPED
FIRE OFF SOME PRETTY DECENT CONV OVER ZAPATA AND WESTERN STARR
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT OF THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD COVER LEFT OVER FROM THIS CONV
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE LOWER RGV THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE EVENING BRO SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE ATMS OVER THE LOWER
RGV HAS DRIED OUT AND STABILIZED SOMEWHAT WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE FORMATION OF ANY LOW LEVEL CLD COVER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND TOMORROW. SO WILL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD FOR ALL THREE VALLEY AIRPORTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WEAK 500MB LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF TAMAULIPAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OUTFLOW FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY FOR SUBSIDENCE TO WEAKEN ENOUGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. EVEN IF RAIN
CHANCES DO NOT MATERIALIZE WEDNESDAY AS EXPECTED...THE INCREASE IN
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD AT LEAST PROVIDE ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE RAW AND MOS
CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WEAKNESS ALOFT AND
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PEAK OF THE MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. STARTING SATURDAY...THE
TROUGH FINALLY BREAK FREE AND SWEEP WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT
RIDGE CENTERED ON THE FOUR CORNERS. WITH MORE STABLE AIR AND LESS
MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S...WITH SOME 100 DEGREE
READING FAR WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE
THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SE. WHILE INSTABILITY
INCREASES...MODELS ARE NOT YET PULLING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD LIMIT A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE HELD TO
10 POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING NEAR THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY SEASON FOR NOW.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO PROVIDES A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK PG KEEPING WINDS FROM RAMPING UP.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE THE ISOLATED
STREAMER TYPE...WITH MINIMAL BRIEF IMPACT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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