Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 141138 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
638 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Southeast winds will increase this afternoon with
gusts nearing 30 knots at times. A few lower ceilings will be
possible Tuesday morning, but VFR conditions are likely to prevail
through the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Hot and dry conditions are
expected to continue through the short term period with exception to
a few showers over the Gulf waters this morning. Mid-level ridging
and deep subsidence above 900mb will lead to another hot day with
just a few cumulus clouds expected this afternoon. Surface winds
will again be breezy with gusts ranging from 25 to 30 mph through
the afternoon. Since we continue to flirt with Heat Advisory
criteria according to model guidance, slightly adjusted dew points
down out west since it hasn`t been accounting for persistence in
daytime mixing. Still think we could briefly reach heat indices of
110 to 111F this afternoon, but it should be just shy of an
advisory. Tuesday, another dry day will be in store with slightly
warmer temperatures and highest heat indices ranging from 110 to

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): Global models are in
good agreement with a 500mb trough across the western United
States and a 500mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and southeast
U.S. Tuesday. The subtropical 500mb ridge across the northern Gulf
of Mexico will build westward into south Texas Wednesday. The
upper level ridge will provide hot and relatively dry conditions
across the CWA Wednesday through the rest of the week into the
weekend as the center of the ridge across Louisiana Friday moves
westward into southeast TX Saturday.

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Strong pressure gradient will lead
to moderate to strong southeast winds again this afternoon. A
Small Craft Advisory for Winds has been issued for the Bay and
nearshore Gulf waters (0 to 20nm) from 12 PM CDT to 9 PM CDT.
Adverse marine conditions will also be possible beyond 20nm with
winds ranging from 15 to 20 knots. Winds will increase again
Tuesday afternoon and evening with another Small Craft Advisory
being possible.

Tuesday night through Friday...Moderate to strong southeast winds
will prevail across the coastal waters Tues night as surface high
pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and low pressure across
the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles provides a strong pressure gradient
across the lower TX coast. The pressure gradient will remain
strong across across the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday before
weakening Thursday. Moderate to strong southeast to south winds
Wednesday will become moderate Thursday. Light to moderate
southeast winds should prevail across the lower TX coast Friday as
surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico provides a weak
pressure gradient across the western Gulf of Mexico.


GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds from noon today to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ130-132-135-150-155.



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