Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 040547
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1147 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK CLOUD SIGNATURE ON IR IMAGERY
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT. NO
IMPACT TO THE LOCAL AREA AS THE THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
REMIANS NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN
WAKE OF THE TROUGH MAINTAINING VFR AND CLOUDLESS SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BECOMING MODERATE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. A SHALLOW MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY FARTHER SOUTH...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A PAUCITY OF
CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AT THE 500 MB LEVEL THE
TROFFING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD IN OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL STATES WILL MAINTAIN DECENT CAA OVER THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM. THIS WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BELOW
CLIMO FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT
AROUND FROM THE NE TOMORROW NIGHT. BUT THIS MAY NOT INCREASE THE WAA
ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE FOR LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT SINCE THE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL NEED MORE WAA TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY. ALL
OF THE THREE SHORT TERM MODEL SETS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT FOR MAXES AND MINS. SO WILL GO CLOSE TO A
THREE WAY BLEND THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED AND WILL GO WITH NIL POPS AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: IF
YOU LIKE SUNNY DAYS...CRISP NIGHTS...AND MILD TO WARM AFTERNOONS
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FOR YOU! THE ONCE-ROBUST
SOUTWEST U.S. SHORT WAVE HAS BECOME A PUSSYCAT OF SORTS AND NOW
ONLY AFFECT NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH ANY NOTABLE
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AN INCREASE IN
STRATOCUMULUS TO CONSIDERABLE LEVELS...STILL WITH A BIT OF
SUNSHINE...FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRYING TO GO OVERCAST OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER TOWARD THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THURSDAY...UPPER
60S..DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST SURGE ON SATURDAY BRINGS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BUT WITH FULL ADIABATIC MIXING HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OVERACHIEVE THE COOLER ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE...LOW TO MID 70S. THIS
IS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES...WHICH AT 4-6C WILL MIX TO NEAR 20-21C JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH VERY DRY AIR CREATING A LITTLE
SUPERADIABTIC LAYER AND BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 22/23C OR
LOW TO MID 70S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS THROUGH
PERIODICALLY THICK CIRRUS THOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO BLOT OUT THE
SUNSHINE...AND EVEN THAT SHOULD GO AWAY BY TUESDAY. THE REASON FOR
THE WINNING FORECAST IS A DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROUGH THAT SETS UP
SHOP...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST GULF PINCHING ANY MOISTURE RECOVERY OFF ACROSS
TROPICAL EASTERN MEXICO (I.E. TAMPICO SOUTHWARD). ECMWF/GFS HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THICKNESS AND LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT
GIVEN WHAT`S HAPPENING TODAY (MID 70S UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW) AND
INCREASING FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE SEE NO REASON WHY LOW TO MID 70S
ISN`T THE PREVAILING CONDITION EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY 40S
EACH MORNING.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 DATA INDICATES THAT
SOLID SCA CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE SURFACE OBS NEAR
THE BAY SHOW SCA WINDS ALSO CONTINUING HERE. EXPECT THE PGF TO RELAX
ENOUGH OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE TO ALLOW THE NORTH WINDS TO WEAKEN HERE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINTAINING SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SO WILL EXTEND THE SCA
FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH 23Z THURS AND WILL ALLOW THE SCA FOR THE
BAY TO EXPIRE SHORTLY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS
WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND PERHAPS SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR
SO WITH SEAS DIPPING BELOW 5 FEET...THEN A BRIEF SURGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING LIKELY INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TERRITORY
BEFORE QUICKLY RECEDING SUNDAY...CERTAINLY IN TIME FOR ANY LAGUNA
MADRE OR NEARSHORE BOATING/FISHING TRIPS. ANOTHER WAVE OF
FRESHENING NORTH WINDS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT
REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS AND 7 FEET SEAS.

FIRE WEATHER...THE RH VALUES OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE BRO
AREA HAVE DROPPED BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. SO HAVE ISSUED A SHORT FUSE RED FLAG WARNING
FOR MOST OF THE BRO CWA EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL WILLACY AND COASTAL
CAMERON COUNTY AREAS.

BEYOND THE SHORT TERM...WITH NO RAINFALL AND CONTINUED FLOW OF DRY
AIR FUNNELING INTO THE VALLEY/DEEP S. TEXAS...THE NEXT SHOT AT 15
PERCENT RH AND 15-20 MPH WINDS IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
FORECASTING AROUND 20 PERCENT RH BUT LATEST ECMWF VERY BULLISH ON
UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID TEENS DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS WHICH MAY BE LOGICAL BASED ON CONTINUED DRYING TOP SOILS AND
RECENT EVENTS. LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY PRECLUDE SPREAD POTENTIAL BUT
THAT MAY CHANGE MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS...AS
THE 15/15 RULE MAY APPLY ONCE AGAIN. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE...BIGGEST THREATS ARE FROM HIDALGO/BROOKS WEST WHERE FINE
FUELS ARE "CRISPY" WITH NOTHING FORESEEN TO CHANGE THAT.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>255.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  48  63  49  66 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          46  65  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            43  65  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              43  66  44  68 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      40  66  41  68 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   51  61  53  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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