Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 312119
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
419 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...OUTFLOW AND SEABREEZE
DOMINATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PW VALUES THIS MORNING WERE
ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND STEERING FLOW WAS LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. WITH
TROUGH AXIS IN THE REGION...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE AN ISSUE. CONVECTION WILL END THIS EVENING FOR THE LAND
AREAS...WHILE REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD
MOVE INTO EASTERN CAMERON COUNTY BEFORE DAWN...SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING.

TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STEADY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW...WITH
INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HELPING TO ADD FURTHER LIFT TO THE
ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN
THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOW INITIATION STARTING ACROSS CAMERON
COUNTY THEN MOVING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED POPS FOR
TOMORROW TO HIGH END CHANCE...AND PUSHED TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB LOW/SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOUSIANA EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE LITTLE IF ANY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
DEPENDS ON THE WEAK 500MB RIDGEING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN
MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE NOW THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO INSTABILITY
ALOFT AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM SOUTH OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  90  78  91 /  30  40  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          76  91  77  93 /  30  40  30  40
HARLINGEN            76  95  76  94 /  30  50  20  40
MCALLEN              77  96  78  97 /  30  50  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  97  76  96 /  40  40  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  85  80  87 /  30  40  30  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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