Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 020540
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EASTERLY WIND WILL BEGIN BACKING EARLY IN THE MORNING
HOURS AS FROPA MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN MVFR WITH A MIX OF HAZE AND PATCHY FOG. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT GUSTY WINDS INCREASING WITH VCSH DEVELOPING AHEAD
WITH FROPA. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW TO MID MVFR LEVEL DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...NO SENSE IN FIGHTING REALITY OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOWS
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AT LEAST...AND PERHAPS EVEN
THROUGH THE RANCHLANDS...WELL CAPPED. LIMITED WEAK CONVECTION OVER
THE SIERRA MADRE HAS GENERALLY FAILED TO LAUNCH...AND ARRIVAL OF
00Z NAM SUPPORTS IDEA OF NO RAIN PRIOR TO 12Z FOR THE POPULATED RGV
WITH CAP HOLDING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DISORGANIZED EVEN AS
SURFACE FRONT "OOZES" THROUGH. THEREFORE...REDUCED RAIN CHANCES
TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR THE RANCHLANDS AND A SLIVER OF ZAPATA...AND
SILENT 10 FOR THE RGV POPULATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

THEREAFTER...I`M QUICKLY LOSING CONFIDENCE THAT WE`LL HEAR MUCH THUNDER/SEE
ANY LIGHTNING AT ALL ON MONDAY. NAM-12 00Z RUN CAME AROUND TO THE
NORTHERLY SHIFT BEFORE 12Z FOR THE MID/UPPER VALLEY AND SEEON
AFTER ELSEWHERE...WITH EVENT A TILT TOWARD SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT PICK UP IN EARNEST AS THE INVERSION FILLS WITH FALL-LIKE LOW
CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...WINDOW FOR CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE 12Z-
15Z PERIOD AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE
MID/UPPER VALLEY AND PERHAPS THROUGH 18Z FOR THE LOWER VALLEY.
THAT SAID...GUIDANCE TSTM POPS ON THE RECENTLY ARRIVED NAM-12
DON`T EVEN CRACK 20 PERCENT. BY 18Z AND BEYOND ELEVATED LAPSE
RATES ARE CONFINED ABOVE 700 MB...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED TO AREA
BEING IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF WESTERLY 250 MB JET. SO...WHILE CAN`T
RULE OUT A ROGUE RUMBLE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IMPACT WILL BE
SHOWERS...AND HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
52/BSG

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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