Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBRO 140050
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
750 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED FURTHER NORTH OF THE CWA
LEAVING BEHIND A LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAIN AT THIS TIME...THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND HIGH
SURF HAS BEEN EXPIRED.

MARINE CONDITIONS...SEAS REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FEET WITH MODERATE WINDS.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL FLOOD AS WELL DUE TO THE HIGH TIDE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STAY INTACT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TERMINALS
AT THIS TIME WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL OCCURRING OVER HRL AND MFE.
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CIG DEVELOPING. STILL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BUT MAINLY ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS WITH VFR CIGS IMPROVING SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

.FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH A COLD FRONT...

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAZARDS...

FLASH FLOODING...
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITH VERY DEEP AND RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE TRAINING FROM EAST SOUTHEAST TO WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE
METROPOLITAN AREAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL BE A THREAT FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME FLASH FLOODING
IN THE CITIES AND AN EXTREME EVENT IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE AS THE
ADVANCING FRONT PUSHES UP AGAINST THIS MOISTURE. LARGE AREA OF
STRATIFORM PRECIP CONTINUES BEHIND THE FIRST BAND. WILL CONTINUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ZONES MENTIONED.

SEVERE WEATHER...
SMALL BUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE/VERY BRIEF TORNADOES
WITH 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND JUST NORTH
OF THE ADVANCING BAND. RADAR HAS SHOWN AT LEAST SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
ROTATION BUT IT HAS NOT MADE IT CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. SOME CELLS
SHOWING BRIEF SIGNS OF MINIATURE SUPERCELL FORMATION. THIS THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT MAY ADVANCE WELL INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

COASTAL FLOODING/HIGH SURF...
TIDAL LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT A 0.7 FOOT RESIDUAL THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL LEAVE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE. SURF VALUES APPEAR
TO BE CLOSE OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN PLACE
AS WELL.

MARINE...
ROUGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND CREATE AT LEAST SOME OVERRUNNING THIS
EVENING AND KEPT PRECIP CHANCES RELATIVELY HIGH. THE INFLUENCE OF IT
AND THE TROPICAL WAVE WANE TOMORROW BUT THERE STILL IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR THE POPS INHERITED AND LEFT AS WAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A BROAD EASTERLY WAVE WILL
SHIFT WEST FROM SOUTH FLORIDA ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SOME STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SPIN UP PROB IS
LOW. THE FEATURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WEST TOWARD THE TEXAS
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BELIEVE CURRENT POPS OF 40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST ARE SOUND AND NEED NO CHANGE RIGHT NOW. COASTAL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS UPSTREAM...CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE SOMEWHAT...THOUGH NOT
COMPLETELY. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. WOULD
EXPECT SEASONAL WEATHER OTHERWISE.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH PUSHES LONGER
PERIOD WAVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGHING PERSISTING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER AROUND AS WELL WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLOW FALL
FROM 4 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT TO 2-3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.