Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBRO 241130 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF A 500MB CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM SUNDAY IN SPITE OF THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE SUN
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S SUN AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRAVEL E
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST ENTERS THE BAJA CA COAST. THE RIDGE MAINTAINS A
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. UPPER TROUGH ENERGY WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY REMAINING
NORTH OF S TX AND NOT CREATING ANY MAYOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THURSDAY.

THURSDAY....AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
RETURNS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BUT WITH A WEAK GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS
NO MORE THAN 15 MPH OR LESS. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
STREAMS NORTHWARD MAINLY DEVELOPING FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK THURSDAY.
DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AN SECOND UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST AS IT MOVES EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE A COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY S OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE MOVING SOUTH AND REACH THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SETS
UP PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL BE FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE CWA INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS SLOW MOVING WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS WET PATTERN POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO
THE MID TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY WARM UP INTO THE UPPER
60S BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 17 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EAST TEXAS SUN AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STRONG RIDGE WILL TAKE CONTROL
OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINS
THURSDAY INCREASE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67/55





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.