Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 250904
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
404 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A MUCH DRIER AIR PARCEL
HAS SPREAD INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
PW VALUES ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE DATA AROUND 1.5 INCHES. RIDGING
ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...AND THESE FACTORS
WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOST ALL GUIDANCE...AS
ALL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDERFORECASTING HIGHS.

WHILE THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD...THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
US CONTINUES TO DIRECT IMPULSES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON ONE OF THESE IMPULSES WRAPPING
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH IT...BUT WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE.
BUT WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND INCREASED MOISTURE...THE SEABREEZE
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO HELP HOLD TEMPS
DOWN A BIT DURING THE DAY...TAPERING 2 TO 4 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY`S
HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO FILTER
INTO SOUTH TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK BEFORE A 500MB LOW DEVELOPS WITH THE SHEAR AXIS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE BETTER IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...WEAKER PER THE GFS...MOVING WESTWARD
INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILING OVER THE GULF OF MEX EXPECT THE MSL FIELD TO REMAIN
FAIRLY RELAXED. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST WINDS AND LOW SEAS
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH NO ADVISORIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDING
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  94  77  93  75 /  10  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          96  77  95  75 /  10  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            98  75  96  73 /  10  10  20  10
MCALLEN             101  78  99  76 /  10  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  76 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  78  89  77 /  10  10  30  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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