Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 181137
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
637 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...MVFR cigs at KBRO and KHRL with IFR cigs KMFE will
continue for a couple more hours early this morning before
conditions generally improve by 13 or 14Z. Some patchy fog has
also been noted but will lift quickly. Otherwise, high pressure
will remain in control with VFR and some gusty southeast winds
this afternoon. Winds will decrease after sunset, and low clouds
could form again Sunday morning with possible MVFR to IFR cigs.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): A ridge high pressure aloft
and surface high pressure over the Central Gulf will remain in
control of the sensible weather across the RGV through the
weekend. Meanwhile, low clouds have developed over Deep South
Texas early this morning as a some low level moisture increases
over the region. Despite the cloud cover this morning, dry air in
the mid to upper level will mix down as surface heating commences
and allow for both sun and some clouds. The surface pressure
gradient has also relaxed due to the proximity of the high, and
southeast winds today will be less breezy. Meanwhile, temps will
be running a few to several degrees above normal for mid March as
highs today top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast
to the lower 90s across the Western Ranchlands. Low Sunday morning
will be in the 60s.
As for as the beaches, waves and swells have been steadily subsiding
early this morning and expect conditions to improve through the day.
As such, will keep the rick of rip currents low today and allow the
Rip Current Statement to expire at 7 AM.
The RGV can expect a similar set up for Sunday although highs may be
a degree or two warmer as high pressure continues over Deep South
LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): As a large 500 mb trough
digs along the East Coast of the U.S. a large ridge will prevail
over the central portion of the country. This ridging will persist
on through next Thurs. Later next week a strong 500 mb trough axis
will dig steadily east from the Cali coastline pushing into the
south central Plains states Thurs and Fri. The approach of this
trough axis will erode away the ridging over the region. This
trough axis will push a cold front into central TX on Sat. But it
is very questionable that the cold front will actually make its
way through the RGV this weekend with little or no CAA evident. So
with the 500 mb ridging in place over the region combining with
persistent WAA expect overall temps to remain above climo through
Overall moisture values remain pretty limited under the influence
of the mid level ridging. The only hint of any significant pops
shows up late in the forecast period with the approach of the 500
mb trough from the west. At this time will maintain no more than a
slgt chc of conv for next Fri.
The GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement for both temps and
pops through next Fri. Will go with a general blend of the two
models for temps. Run to run consistency with the GFS MEX MOS
numbers is pretty stable. So the overall confidence in the
forecast wording is above average at this time.
MARINE: (Now through Sunday): High pressure is in control of the
Gulf with Buoy 42020 reporting SSE winds at 12KTS and seas around 4
feet as of 3 AM. Mariners can expect excellent conditions today and
through the remainder of the weekend, with light to moderate S to SE
winds and low to moderate seas.
Sunday Night through Wednesday Night...Surface ridging over the
Gulf of Mex extending into the western Atlantic will maintain
moderate S to SE low level winds throughout the first portion next
week. With the approach of the 500 mb trough from the west late
next week expect the PGF to tighten up a bit possible pushing the
marine conditions up close to SCA late Wed.
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