Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 140609
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
109 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Low clouds and patchy fog will likely develop again
overnight as low level moisture continues in place during the
overnight. Expect fog to bring reduced visbys to MVFR to IFR
conditions. Once daytime mixing occurs, conditions will improve to
VFR with light ESE winds generally expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...MVFR remains a possibility overnight tonight due to
the formation of fog and low clouds. Tomorrow, full VFR will be on
display with higher clouds and light winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday night): Scattered showers with
a few thunderstorms are beginning to develop this afternoon across
the Gulf waters with additional development, partially aided by
the coastal seabreeze, moving westward along the Rio Grande. An
area of moisture on the southern side of a broad mid-level high
pressure today will move northward into central Texas with mainly
dry conditions over our area behind it on Saturday. With strong
subsidence aloft, a moist and shallow layer near the surface and
light winds tonight, another round of fog is expected. Areas of
fog, some locally dense, will be possible in the mid Valley and
Ranchlands Saturday morning, which will be the main weather impact
in the short term period.

Saturday, a few isolated showers or storms will be possible, but
most areas will remain dry amid strong subsidence and lack of deep
moisture. Temperatures will be continue to be a few degrees above
normal for mid-October with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for
most areas.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): A strong 500 mb trough will
continue to move east over the central Plains States on Sunday. The
500 mb level trough will push a cold front across deep south Texas
late Sunday. Moisture pooling ahead of the approaching front will
support a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Sunday
night. High temperatures Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s to
around 90 before the front arrives. Rain chances diminish on Monday
as cooler and drier air filters into the area. Mid level ridging
builds over the region through the rest of the period. Dry with near
normal temperatures will continue through the rest of the forecast
period as northwest flow aloft prevails. The latest GFS and ECMWF
temperature guidance are in reasonable agreement and will maintain
the previous temperature forecast through Day 7.

MARINE: (Now through Saturday night): Main marine impacts in the
short term will be scattered convection developing this afternoon.
Locally heavy downpours and isolated cloud to water lightning can be
expected. Outside of convection, winds will be light out of the east
with wave heights ranging from 2 to 4 feet. Surface high pressure
over the eastern U.S. with a weak gradient will continue to provide
light easterly flow at 5 to 10 knots through Saturday night.

Sunday through Wednesday Night...Light to moderate winds and low
seas will prevail early Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Adverse marine conditions will develop late Sunday into Monday due
to the passage of the cold front. Small Craft Advisories are likely
Sunday night through Monday night due to strong north winds and
hazardous seas. Marine conditions begin to improve on Tuesday as the
pressure gradient weakens as surface high settles across the
southeastern states.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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