Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 271120 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
620 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MAJORITY OF MVFR CIGS HAVE DISSIPATED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OR THIN LINES OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
STREAMING NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CU FIELD BY MID TO
LATE MORNING BECOMING SCT IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BUILDING OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE
MAINTAINING A RELATIVE SPEAKING RAINFREE FORECAST. INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND WARMING OF 850-700MB LEVELS BUILDS A MODEST CAP OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA KEEPING POP CHANCES VERY LOW. BELOW THE CAP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AOB 850MB REMAINS HIGH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE
WARM GULF TO KEEP OUR DEWPOINTS AT MID SUMMER VALUES. THE MODEST
SOUTHERLY 925-850MB WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS AND THE GULF WATER TEMPS
AROUND 80-81 DEGREES COULD BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A LIMITED STREAMER
SHOWERS. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE LOWER VALLEY BOTH THIS
AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PROBABLY
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AS WAS THE CASE TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TO MIX OUT ANY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR CONSISTENCY MAINTAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF THE
EARLY SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEW POINTS TO
COMBINE PUSHING THE HEAT INDICES OVER THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST
LOCALS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 C/281.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS THE NEXT TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...AN EMBEDDED VORT LOBE WILL BE
WRAPPING THROUGH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALL MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE TAIL END SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG ACROSS THE VALLEY...SO
WILL ONLY KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WHILE H5 RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH
THIS AGITATION IN THE REGION...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST GETS MORE DIFFICULT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOP A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND ALSO PRODUCE VARYING TROPICAL DISTURBANCES IN THE
EPAC. WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE LOCALLY...WILL HOLD ON TO LOW
POP CHANCES FOR NOW...MAINLY SEABREEZE VARIETY SHOWERS...WAITING
FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL OUTPUTS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERMAL GRADIENT SUFFICIENT FOR
MODERATE TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS TO
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WITH A COMBINED SEA AND SCEC ANTICIPATED ON THE
LAGUNA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS PRESSURES
LOWER OVER WESTERN TEXAS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ARE EXPECTED BUT
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STEADILY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE DOMINANT SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD GETS FORCED FURTHER EASTWARD BY A COLD FRONT.
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL FROM 5 FEET DOWN TO
AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  79 /  20  20  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          91  79  91  78 /  20  20  20  10
HARLINGEN            92  78  92  77 /  20  20  20  10
MCALLEN              94  78  94  78 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  78  94  76 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  79  85  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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