Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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683
FXUS64 KBRO 201950
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night):Upper level Ridge will
build across the S TX region during the short term forecast with a
weak warm front gradually lifting northward across Deep South
Texas while it gets wash out. Sea breeze developing today is
allowing for isolated showers and thunderstorms to continue along
the sea breeze near the Lower Texas Coast this afternoon. A light
East to Southeast flow across the area will prevail through the
short term with lingering moisture will continue to enhance more
showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall
accumulations will range between a half an inch with higher
amounts of 1 inch possible mainly over the lower valley. Lingering
moisture over the region east of the Sierra Madre will enhance
showers and thunderstorms along the mountains and the western
counties through the night. High temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 80s and near the 90s. Low temperatures will be ranging
between the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday):12z model suite in good
agreement with the medium range mid level pattern. A somewhat
quiet and dry pattern to dominate much of the local long term
package with the next chance of rain by the end of next work week.
A high latitude ridge will extend from Central Canada to Northern
Mexico with large troughs dominating the West and East Coast.
Increasing temperatures and lower chance of rain to prevail over
Deep South Texas Sunday through Wednesday as the ridge axis slowly
moves east. Mid level southwest flow increasing late in the week
with upper air impulses traversing Northern Mexico and South
Texas. Any of these implues could combine with increasing moisture
for daytime or overnight convection. temperatures to show a
gradual increase to early Summer readings as the ridge builds.
Tuesday- Thursday 850mb temps range from 22-25C this should bump
highs in the 90-101 range if not hotter in the Mid and Upper
Valley. A moderate southerly overnight will keep minimums elevated
in the mid to upper 70s which remains above normal for mid/late
May. GFS and EC temperatures guidance are within reason and going
forecast continues to utilize a blend of these solutions with some
minor adjustments on the higher end middle of next week. One thing
to mention dew points remain a little elevated as the south winds
increase mid week. This should result in high heat indices
possibly exceeding 105 degrees in some locations. This will have
to be monitored especially if temperatures are warmer than
expected.

&&

.MARINE (Now through Saturday Night): Weak surface ridging will
remain in control over the western Gulf of Mex through Saturday.
This will maintain a light to moderate e-se surface flow across
the lower TX Bay and Gulf waters. No SCA conditions expected
through Saturday night. Sunday through Wednesday...onshore flow
and seas will experience a gradual increase through next week as
the pressure gradient strengthens. Strongest winds are expected
Monday night through Wednesday with periods of small craft
advisory conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  85  77  88 /  20  20  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          76  90  77  90 /  20  20  20   0
HARLINGEN            74  90  77  93 /  20  20  20   0
MCALLEN              74  94  76  94 /  20  20  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  96  76  97 /  20  20  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  81  78  84 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...short term
59...long term



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