Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 101912
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
212 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night): Large moisture plume
stretching northward off the remnants of Franklin continue to
provide ample fuel for shower and thunderstorm activity across
south Texas. Moisture profile suggests any showers this afternoon
will produce copious amounts of rainfall, with minor ponding on
roadways. Once daytime heating is done, showers will dissipate
for the most part, with only remnants expected to be an isolated
shower or two moving ashore off the Gulf late tonight. Dry air
moves in above 10000 feet tomorrow, but surface moisture remains
abundant underneath this capping. Daytime heating will likely
still bubble up the CU field during the day, with isolated
showers still possible right along the sea breeze, being the only
effective surface forcing mechanism available. High temperatures
will recover tomorrow into the mid to upper 90s, with a few places
reaching right around 100.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): A 594 decameter high will
park over south Texas Saturday, with 1016 mb high pressure over
the Gulf. This pattern will persist quite well through the long
term. Though a stray afternoon or coastal shower can`t be ruled
out, rain chances otherwise will become muted in the long term,
and for now have gone with a dry long term forecast. Seasonal
weather will ensue on Saturday and thereafter, with light to mdt.
onshore (southeast) winds and a mix of clouds and sun each day.
Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal on avg., with heat
index values typically in the 103 to 108 degree range for a few
hours each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE:
Now through Friday night: Conditions peaking currently from the
effects of Franklin, now long dissipated inland in Mexico. Long
period swells of 9 to 10 feet currently will gradually decrease
through the next 36 hours. Models have underplayed wave action off
the coast by a couple feet, so reduction of seas below advisory
criteria will not arrive until right around sunrise tomorrow.
Small Craft Advisory already covers this period, so no extensions
will likely be needed after expiration tomorrow. By tomorrow
night, seas will be back down to 3 to 5 feet offshore. Winds
during the next 36 hours will remain modest as the surface high
builds across the northern Gulf, keeping the gradient relaxed.
Onshore flow will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range
throughout the short term period.

Saturday through Tuesday: Mid level ridging overhead and surface
high pressure over the Gulf will produce light to moderate
southeast to south winds and low to moderate seas. Slightly
stronger winds will be possible Sunday night and later as lower
pressure over west Texas periodically tightens the gradient.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  93  80  93 /  20  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  94  79  95 /  20  20   0  10
HARLINGEN            78  96  78  98 /  20  20   0  10
MCALLEN              80 100  80 100 /  20  20   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 100  78 102 /  20  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  88  82  90 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251-
     256-257.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 10 AM CDT Friday
     for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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