Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 012213 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
513 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...MADE A FEW MINOR TOUCH-UPS TO THE NEAR TERM AND
FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM REGARDING RAIN CHANCES. VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE CU FIELD AND LACK OF ANY FORCING SUPPORTS NO
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH 7 PM...AND SEE LITTLE IMPETUS
FOR MENTIONABLE RAIN EVEN THROUGH 9/10 PM. THEREAFTER...BACKED OFF
COVERAGE TO ONLY THE RANCHLANDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS VALLEY
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY CAPPED AND FARTHEST FROM ANY INITIATION OVER
THE SIERRA MADRE. POST-MIDNIGHT FORECAST GENERALLY THE SAME EXCEPT
STRECHED OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA TO COVER THE BULK OF THE
VALLEY POPULATION...AS COMBINATION OF BEST FORCING AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FAVORS THE RANCHLANDS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE THE SENSE OF THE WEATHER AND
RAIN ON MONDAY. FRONTAL TYPE AND FORCING MORE ANABATIC THAN
KATABATIC...IN SOME SENSE ACTING LIKE AN LATE FALL TO EARLY SPRING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY PIN ANY THUNDER TO THE OVERNIGHT RESIDUE
FROM THE SIERRA MADRE. ONCE NORTHERLY FLOW OVERWHELMS THE LOW
LEVELS...AND TIME- HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW THIS OCCURRING AS EARLY AS
DAYBREAK...THE PRECIPITATION MAY JUST FALL AS OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH PERHAPS THE LOWER RGV SEEING
THUNDER THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING BEFORE THICK CANOPY OF 2000-3500
FOOT CLOUDS ARRIVES IN ALL AREAS BEFORE NOON. WILL NOT CHANGE THE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW...BUT QUITE POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
TRIMMED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND ELIMINATED
FOR ALL BUT THE GULF BY AFTERNOON.
52/BSG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HAZY AND WARM AT THE LOCAL BEACHES...WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TO HIGHLIGHT
THE THREAT AND ASSOCIATED RISKS OF AN UNFAVORABLE SWELL.

SPC EARLIER PULLED NORTH ON THE MARGINAL RISK LINE...NOTING THE
CAPPING EFFECTS OF THE MORNING SOUNDING. LOCAL RADAR HAS BEEN QUIET
TODAY AS EXPECTED...WITH THE THREAT OF CONVECTION STILL THOUGHT TO
BE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...COMING FROM AN EAGLE PASS TO
LAREDO DEVELOPMENT AREA...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY FROM WEST OF THE MID
AND UPPER VALLEY OF THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/LOWER RGV CWA. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM STORMS APPROACHING THE UPPER VALLEY FROM THE NORTH AND
MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE FROM THE WEST WILL BE STRONG WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...
THOUGH FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS ARE PAINTED ON A LARGER SCALE AND CHECK
IN WITH HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG OR HAZE IN THE MORNING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...IS
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PICK UP THE FRONT AND MOVE IT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH QPFS
MEASURING IN THE TENTHS OF AN INCH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND 80S.

FOG AND HAZE WILL BE LESS PROBLEMATIC MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS...AND AS RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH...BUT SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER RESUMES
AREAWIDE. TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING
GENERALLY NEAR THE LOWER VALLEY...BUT BY NOON ANYTHING LEFT OVER
SHOULD BE GONE. DRY AIR MOVES IN ALOFT DURING THE DAY...WITH
QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 80S.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN AIR QUALITY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH THE SMOKY AIRMASS BACK TO THE
SOUTH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS SFC HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS TEXAS. THE HIGH WILL NOT DEPART UNTIL LATER
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY REINTRODUCE MORE GULF MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE LARGE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
MEXICO WILL BE IN A GOOD LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT STEERING FLOW WOULD BRING A FEW OF THESE
TSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MEETING
THE GULF MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCES FOR RAIN BOTH EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE THOSE DAYS WILL
BE WARM AND RAIN FREE.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WILL
ALLOW MARINE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE DECREASING...BUT IT MAY
TAKE THE REST OF TUESDAY FOR SEAS TO FALL BELOW 5 FEET. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING BACK TO THE SE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...WITH NO MORE THAN 3
FOOT SEAS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  81  69  77 /  20  40  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          76  83  68  78 /  20  40  30  30
HARLINGEN            75  81  67  79 /  20  40  30  20
MCALLEN              75  80  66  80 /  20  40  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  76  65  80 /  30  60  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  79  71  76 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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