Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 131138 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
538 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are prevailing right now and should
continue to persist through today as surface winds intensify to
breezy levels. Diminishing winds this evening and tonight will
allow for the formation of fog, which should be light but could
easily be more dense if winds become even lighter than forecast.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): A moist and breezy onshore flow
will produce not only well above normal temperatures during the
short term forecast period, but will also produce isolated showers
mainly over the adjacent coastal waters and periodically over the
inland portions of the BRO CWFA. An aspect of the forecast to
monitor will be the potential for fog, suggested by both MET and MAV
model guidance. However, the MAV guidance suggests that the fog may
become dense shortly after the transition from short term to long
term portion of the whole forecast package.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): Moist and breezy
onshore flow and above normal temperatures will continue through the
first part of the forecast period. Isolated showers will be possible
across Deep South Texas Saturday night into Sunday. Low temperatures
Saturday night will be in the 60s under mostly cloudy skies.
Surface low pressure develops across eastern New Mexico into west
Texas on Sunday. This should allow the pressure gradient to
tighten across the region...resulting in breezy to windy
conditions on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will range from
the 70s at the beaches to the low to mid 80s inland under a mix of
sun and clouds. Scattered showers will develop late Monday night
through late Tuesday night in association with the approach and
passage of a front, some showers may lingering along the coast
into Wednesday. Temperatures will return to near normal values
Tuesday night into Wednesday in the wake of the front. Dry
conditions will prevail through late week with temperatures
warming as southerly flow develops.

MARINE (Now through Saturday): Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds
around 14 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly over
5.5 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 02 CST/08 UTC. The
combination of an enhanced surface pressure gradient over the
western Gulf of Mexico and swells approaching from the southeast
will produce moderate winds and seas along the Lower Texas Coast
during the forecast period. Small Craft will likely need to Exercise
Caution for all or a portion of the Gulf of Mexico waters east of
Padre Island.

Saturday Night through Thursday: Moderate to strong southeast winds
will prevail Saturday night through Monday, supporting moderate to
high seas. Small craft should exercise caution to low end small
craft advisory conditions will dominate through a majority of the
forecast period due to an enhanced pressure gradient and the late
Tuesday passage of a cold front. Wind and sea conditions will
improve to below Small Craft Advisory criteria on Wednesday as
surface high pressure briefly becomes centered over the western
Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the front.



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