Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241731 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1131 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER TEXAS TO PROVIDE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
25KTS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY BECOMING
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER
THE REGION WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLD FREE VFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STRONGER NW SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN
AS THE PGF WEAKENS AND WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS
TO CEILINGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
LOWER RGV AIRPORTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STRONG 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION LATER TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK RIDGING TO
REBUILD OVER SOUTHERN TX AND THE GULF OF MEX. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER EAST ALLOWING A RETURN OF WARMER
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURS WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH DECENT SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPS UP STEADILY THURS.
FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND GENERALLY CLR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY FREEZING
TEMPS TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE WINDS MAY START COMING AROUND FROM THE
SOUTH A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE THURS WHICH WILL NUDGE UP THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES SOUTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS ABOUT 6 FASTER THAN THE
CURRENT ECWMF. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REACHING 1.6 INCHES BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RAIN CHANCES
END ON MONDAY AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS.

MARINE...BUOY020 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A NW WIND AT
25G30KTS WITH SWELLS NEAR 9.0 FEET. EXPECT THE PGF TO GRADUALLY
SLACKEN OVER THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SCA CONDITIONS TO
LINGER ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW SCA
LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A QUIET PGF WILL PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURS MORNING WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY THE
AFTERNOON OF CHRISTMAS DAY. WILL REPLACE THE GALE WARNING WITH AN
SCA FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST
FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST TEXAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  61  43  72  62 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          61  42  73  60 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            62  40  73  58 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              63  40  75  56 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      63  38  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   61  50  72  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

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