Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 241942
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
242 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER A BRIEF UPTICK IN MOISTURE TODAY...12Z
SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 2.01 INCHES...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING LIMITED
WITH 1000-500 MB RH VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TOMORROW AND APPROACH
25C ACROSS ZAPATA CONTINUING THE HOT TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND INTO LOWER 100S ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 109 ONCE AGAIN FOR A FEW
HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONG TERM WILL START
OUT MUCH LIKE IT HAS BEEN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. A 595 DECAMETER
HEIGHT CENTER WILL BE ANCHORED OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE
1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SUBSIDENT AND STABLE ATMS WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT SIMILAR
SUMMERTIME WEATHER. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW
RAIN CHANCES.

THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS REASONABLE AND THUS CONTINUED WITH THE
ONGOING THINKING. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 105 TO
110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ABSENT ANY REAL CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN...SHOULD NOT REALLY GO ANY HIGHER.

THE MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE H5 TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...FLATTENING THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
AND PUSHING THE CENTER EAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...BUT AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY THE H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST TO OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY IN THE GULF...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE MODELS DO REFLECT
MORE UNSETTLED ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST GULF DURING THE WEEK. THOUGH
THERE WILL LITTLE REAL PRECIP PROMISE FOR THE LAND AREAS OF THE
CWA...THE SKY REGIME MAY SHIFT TOWARD MORE PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WILL RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT NEEDING TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FCST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTN
DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  94  80  93 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          81  96  79  94 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            81  98  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              81 101  80 102 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      81 103  78 104 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  88  80  87 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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