Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 290543
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1243 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS VEER WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
OF HAZE UNDER THE INVERSION ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOR LOW LEVEL BKN TO
SCT CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP OVER THE THREE TERMINAL IN THE RGV.
FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST EXPECT LOW LEVEL CIGS AROUND MVFR
TO BRIEFLY IFR EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR
TODAY SE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENING. NO CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH
VFR PREVAILING DURING DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS DECOUPLE A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING AVIATION WISE ACROSS THE VALLEY.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE PERIOD.
AGAIN LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SOME MVFR CIGS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT KHRL AND KMFE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...500 MB RIDGING REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER TX THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY
STABLE ATMS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE RGV. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING
SHOWS ONLY SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED AT AND BELOW THE
950 MB LEVEL WITH A FAIRLY WIDE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD LOCATED ABOVE
THE 950 MB LEVEL. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR ZERO POPS THROUGH WED
NIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE RGV REMAINING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR WED. THE
CURRENT HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND THE AREA AT 245 PM REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT OVERALL VALUES
IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY. EXPECTED HEAT INDEX
VALUES FOR TOMORROW WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SAME GENERAL RANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE 500 MB RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY AS AN ELONGATED 500 MB WEAKNESS MOVES OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID LEVEL FEATURE....A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INCREASING MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 2.10-2.30 INCHES/ OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF IS DRIER WITH THE GFS
COMING IN A LITTLE WETTER. MADE JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP FORECAST BUT KEPT MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT.
OTHERWISE...500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FAIRLY STATUS QUO MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO PUSH THE BAY CONDITIONS BACK UP INTO SCEC
RANGE. HOWEVER NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR EITHER THE BAY OR GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
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