Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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141
FXUS64 KBRO 071722 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1122 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CIRRUS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
WILL ADVECT OVER THE AERODROMES. BACKING AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...L/V WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10KT AFTER
SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLR. L/V
WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...A TRANQUIL PERIOD DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS...JUST IN TIME FOR THE OBSERVATION OF THE OWL THAT IS
SUPERB TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ALONG THE GULF COAST
TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT...AND SLOWLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SFC WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. RIGHT AROUND DAWN MONDAY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF DRIER STABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE. THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL...WITH HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...A DRY AND MILD
FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM. AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST MAINTAINS A RELATIVELY DRY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. THE RIDGE SPREADS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS. NO COLD FRONTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE THE LONG TERM.
AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEK. NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE HUMID AS
MEAN RH AOB 10K FEET RISE ABOVE 60 PERCENT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE VERY LOW POPS AND SOME QPF BUT VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
LIFTING OF THE MOISTURE EXIST WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. HAVE MAINTAINED ZERO POPS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SILENT 10
POPS NEXT SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE INCREASE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES LEVELING
OFF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARRIVE
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX QUICKLY BELOW 2 FEET. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
THE NEXT SURGE OF NORTH WINDS WILL ARRIVE AROUND DAWN
MONDAY...PUSHING WINDS BACK UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO
AROUND 5 FEET.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND A
SLIGHT SEA DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD THURSDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR TXZ250-251-253>257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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