Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 150529 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1129 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Northwest to north winds will continue to be
occasionally gusty through the overnight hours as a 25 to 30 knot
850mb jet develops over the region. High pressure will build into
the region on Wednesday with winds becoming north to northeast and
weakening. VFR conditions are expected through the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Winds at KBRO have briefly turned to the NE at the
surface late this afternoon...likely in the wake of the 850mb
front. The winds should return to the N to NW over the next couple
of hours. Meanwhile...gusty NW winds will continue at KHRL and
KMFE through the early evening before weakening. The low level
850mb jet will strengthen overnight...with NW winds of around
30kts. However...surface winds may remain elevated enough and have
not included any wind shear at the moment. may need
to be included in later TAF packages. Otherwise...VFR conditions
will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The morning cold
front has pushed offshore, leaving high pressure in its wake to
settle over the region. Moderate and gusty northwest winds will
diminish tonight but will strengthen again to moderate on
Wednesday. High temps today were held down in the lower to middle
70s. The next 36 hours will be cooler, with low temperatures
tonight in the 40s and 50s, with more 40s than 50s Wednesday
night. High temperatures on Wednesday will be mainly in the 60s,
slightly cooler than normal for this time of year. Skies will be
clear to mostly clear, though a few high clouds may sneak in from
the west later in the period as a mid level low over Northwest
Mexico edges closer.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): A series of closed 500 mb
lows will track over northern Mexico and southern TX in the longer
range period. The first will move over the region on Thurs and
Fri. This will be followed quickly by another closed 500 mb trough
axis moving over next Tues. Both of these systems appear to advect
in pretty decent moisture levels over southern TX and the western
Gulf of Mex. The good dynamics associated with both of these
systems will set the stage for a couple of rounds of conv. Both
the ECMWF and GFS runs maintain some pretty good pops in the
longer range period so will opt for a general model blend here.

Both the GFS and ECMWF models keep the CAA shut off over the RGV
due to the generally progressive 500 mb pattern. The temperatures
will warm pretty steadily through the weekend as low level WAA
prevails. The 2nd 500 mb closed low that passes through the area
will bring through a cold front late in the longer range period
that will bring in some marginal CAA for Mon/Tues. The ECMWF and
GFS temps are in good agreement up through Sun. The GFS then shows
cooler temps for early next week in comparison to the ECMWF.

MARINE Now through Wednesday night: High pressure will spread
across the area in the short term. Northwest winds will remain
fresh through tonight in the wake of a cold front...supporting
ongoing small craft advisory conditions on the Gulf.

Thursday through Sunday night...A returning S-SE low level flow
will dominate later this week into the weekend as the surface
ridging shifts east over the Gulf of Mex and the southeastern
States. The PGF will then stengthen on Sat and Sun as a surface
low/frontal bounday moves towards the RGV from the west. This may
produce some SCEC/SCA conditions along the lower TX Bay and Gulf
waters late in the CWF period.


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ150-155-170-



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