Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 182020
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
220 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...
AT 250/300MB AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND FLATTENED AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN PLACE JUST
OFF THE COAST GENERATING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER A BROAD FETCH OF
THE GULF...VERIFIED BY A 15Z ASCAT PASS. ABOVE THE SURFACE THE
COASTAL TROUGHS INFLUENCE IS WEAKER AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LARGER SCALE RIDGING CENTERED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA...ARE ADVECTING HIGHER WESTERN GULF AIR
INTO THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE OVERRUNNING THE COOLER NEAR SURFACE
AIR AND PROVIDING A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...THEY ARE ALSO
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE STEADY INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINT.

TONIGHT...
THE NORTHERN MEXICO SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY TONIGHT AND
RESIDUAL COASTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. LIGHT WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT BECOMING ESSENTIALLY CALM BY SUNRISE. A
STEADY OVERCAST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT
SUFFICIENT COOLING FOR FOG...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING ESPECIALLY
IF A FEW MORE BREAKS FORM IN THE CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST.
OTHERWISE LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT....LOW 50S COASTAL MID
40S INLAND.

WEDNESDAY...
RIDGING WILL TAKE GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
TOMORROW FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850/700MB MAY HELP SPARK A FEW EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS BUT MOST LOCALES
WILL STAY DRY. EXPECTING THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ESTABLISH FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRETCH TO AROUND
70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER ON THE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE MORE WELL ESTABLISHED
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE LAGUNA MADRE.
THE WIND SPEED/DIRECTION WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SOME SEA FOG BUT I
BELIEVE FOR NOW THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN GULF ARE TOO
LOW SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE TO A
WEAKENING COASTAL TROUGH PROVIDING WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIGHT BEHIND THE LEAD DISTURBANCE
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING IN ERNEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST MEXICO/TEXAS BIG BEND AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THIS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH A
BULK OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
THIS WEEKEND. FOR OUR AREA THIS IS A WARMING/COMPRESSIONAL WIND
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST MEXICO WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. IN FACT...GFS MEX GUIDANCE DEPICTS
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA. DID RAISE TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 281 AND MAY
NEED TO RAISE MORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL SHIFTS AS THE WEEKEND
DRAWS CLOSER. AS THE SFC CYCLONE RACES TO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS MONDAY. SOME
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF EXIST ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH. AS OF RIGHT NOW NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SO HAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR MONDAY. COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MID
60S EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING
DUE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
OF THE WINDS APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MODERATE TONIGHT
AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO RAMP UP ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
COUPLE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE REGION AND SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. SEAS ALSO
RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AS THE SFC SYSTEM DEPARTS. MORE MODERATE
CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS WAVE HEIGHTS MAY STILL BE
RUNNING AROUND 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  54  69  63  76 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          51  70  62  77 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            49  69  60  76 /  10  10  10  30
MCALLEN              49  69  59  74 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      47  70  58  73 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   58  69  66  75 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ





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