Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 252346 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS...SHEAR AXIS...OVERHEAD WILL
FILL/MOVE WEST TONIGHT LEAVING A DRIER ATMOSPHERE ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA UNDER RIDGING
ALOFT...PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TX WILL DICTATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ON SATURDAY. MDT TO BREEZY AND GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CLOUD
STREETS OF LOW CU WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...
AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A WESTWARD-MOVING SEA BREEZE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE IH-69C/US-281 AND IH-69E/US-77 CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MESOSCALE FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS.

AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
CONVECTION LARGELY DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.  FOR THIS REASON...
FORECAST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
THIS EVENING.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ON OUR WEATHER WILL WANE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING RIDGING TO REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  A NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT...CIRCULATING AROUND THE
RIDGE`S CENTER (IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE)...WILL DRY OUT OUR BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND.  WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND A DRIER AIR MASS
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN STATUS QUO FOR LATE JULY.
LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
ABOUT 100 WEST OF IH-69C/US-281.

THANKS TO WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  /BUTTS/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED OR
MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BROAD 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND FIRMLY
EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL LINGER NEAR
1.5 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD FALL TO NEAR 1
INCH TOWARDS THE END. NO PRECIPITATION WAS INHERITED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...AND THIS TREND WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE DUE TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE COMBINING WITH THE 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
INHERITED...AND KEPT...ALTHOUGH SOME ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE TO
INCREASE THEM ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY DAYTIME HIGHS...
DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND A DRYING ATMOSPHERE.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS TO BE SEEN BY SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS...WAVE AND WIND CRITERIA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE
CAUTION THRESHOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED THAN THIS MORNING. AS
SUCH...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT DURING THE SHORT TERM. /BUTTS/

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ON THE LAGUNA MADRE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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