Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 262032
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
232 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): The weak cold front has
pulled up stationary in the vicinity, with good moisture noted in
morning sounding up through around 12000 feet. This is keeping
isolated shower activity going in the valley. The recent shower that
passed slowly over the office granted us 0.07" rainfall. Most
rainfall across the land areas should be ending just after sunset
with the loss of daytime heating. With the dry air remaining above
12000 tonight, clouds should stay broken to overcast tonight, but
will be in ragged layers. Some light fog is still possible in the
upper valley and ranchlands, but lack of significant focus for
moisture will keep fog from getting thick. High pressure moving into
the Southeastern US and next front moving into west Texas will
switch winds to the southeast tomorrow morning, with breezy
conditions possible areawide. The southeast flow will remove what`s
left of the stalled frontal boundary in the vicinity, removing the
only boundary available for shower formation. Return flow will also
bring up temps tomorrow into the low to mid 80s with thicker daytime
CU field bubbling up.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Winds will be breezy to
windy from the south to southwest on Monday, especially near the
coast, with high temperatures from the mid 80s to lower 90s, which
will be well above normal and will be close to record setting for
this time of year. Winds will veer to northwest late in the day
with the approach of an initial cold front, but any convective
activity will be more likely along the middle and upper Texas Coast.
Nonetheless, a few showers will move through the CWA Monday night
with the front, but should be mainly offshore. Low temperatures
will decrease into the 50s and 60s while high temps on Tuesday
will be more reasonable in the lower 80s.

A follow-on short wave trough moving southeast into the Southwest
Conus behind the ejecting system associated with the first cold
front will amplify over Arizona on Tuesday with stronger high
pressure moving south over the Rockies. This will bring reinforcing
high pressure to the CWA Tue night with a secondary and stronger
front Tuesday after midnight. Shower and isolated thunder chances
will be a little better with the Wednesday morning boundary, but
will again be focused over the Gulf and in coastal sections. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
while Wednesday high temps will be mainly in the 70s. Skies will
clear Wednesday afternoon with breezy north winds, and fair weather
will take charge through Friday.

Low temperatures will dip into the 40s for the Ranchlands and Brush
Country Wednesday night under mostly clear skies, with lower to mid
50s near the coast. Thursday high temperatures will be in the lower
to mid 70s as high pressure spreads over the area and shifts east.
Winds will swing around to the east by Thursday, and return moisture
will pump back over the area on east to southeast winds Friday, with
the models indicating increasing shower chances with the old front
coming back this way through Saturday.

A cut off low feature will develop over the southwest on Friday,
with a low latitude Pacific front dissipating over the Mexican
mountains on Saturday, but setting up southwest overrunning on
Sunday as the low sinks deeper into North Mexico.

&&

.MARINE:
Now through Sunday night...Pressure gradient between high
pressure in the southeastern US and developing low pressure along
a front in west Texas will quickly bring up winds from the
southeast on Sunday. Winds will reach 15 to 20 knots during the
afternoon, with sustained 20 knot winds becoming more likely after
sunset. Higher winds and an increasing fetch will bring seas
upwards to 4 to 5 feet on Sunday, and above 6 feet Sunday night.
Small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday Night.

Monday through Thursday: Solid small craft advisory conditions
should be ongoing Monday morning with prevailing strong south winds
and high seas on the Gulf. This will be the consequence of a deep
plains storm system interacting with high pressure over the Gulf. By
Monday the plains low will eject northeast and winds may decrease
slightly during the day. A trailing cold front will push into the
area late in the day with winds turning to east Monday night, at
least for the northern marine zones. Elevated wave heights should
keep small craft advisory conditions going on the Gulf well into
Monday night, however. Winds will get a chance to turn to southeast
again on Tuesday as the remnant front loses some definition or rises
above the surface flow. Remember that the front will not be that
strong. Another stronger front will push through Tuesday night, with
strong north winds developing by Wednesday morning. Small craft
advisory conditions will develop Wednesday and persist through Wed
night. High pressure will settle over the area Wednesday after the
front moves offshore, with improving conditions Wednesday night into
Thursday. Though south winds will be strong and hazardous on Mon, a
shift to strong north winds behind the front on Wed will also entail
hazardous marine conditions. Wave heights Mon will build to between
8 and 10 feet offshore, and similar wave heights will be possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  80  68  86 /  20  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          64  81  69  87 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            61  82  66  90 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              65  83  69  91 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      63  85  66  92 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  78  73  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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