Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 230606 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
106 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY...DROPPING DEW
POINTS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL HELP WITH FOG OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING VERY LIGHT WINDS...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST
TODAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. VFR CONDITIONS ONCE ANY FOG OR
CIGS LIFT BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/..,SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ZAPATA TO RIO GRANDE CITY TO SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. AN INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN KENEDY TO WEST OF
HARLINGEN. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING THE
NORTHEAST WINDS TO VEER TO THE EAST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AS MOISTURE
POOLS AND A 500MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVER MEXICO. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ PLACES THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S...DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE HIGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS SUNDAY
AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST UNITED
STATES MONDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A 500MB LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TX THURSDAY
BEFORE STALLING. ANOTHER 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TX BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. &&

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 2.6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 15 CDT/19 UTC. A WEAK
GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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