Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 220909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
409 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): 500mb low/trough across the
southern plains today will bring a cold front across north central
Texas this morning through the CWA late this afternoon into early
this evening. Low to mid level moisture will increase across south
TX this afternoon and isolated showers and thunderstorms will
develop along the front as it moves southward. Elevated convection
will develop in the wake of the front tonight as moisture aloft
increases across northeast Mexico into deep south TX this evening.
Will mention scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight as
the 500mb trough axis moves across east TX. Drier and cooler air
will filter into the area late tonight into Sunday bringing an end
to rain chances. Above normal temperatures this afternoon will be
below normal tonight and Sunday as a result.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): One final gasp of
Springtime weather Tuesday night, with mild lows in the 50s.
Surface ridge remains just offshore through the week, keeping
winds modest from the southeast. Models continue to show attempts
of the dryline to move into the western valley Wednesday through
Friday, so highs out west will jump into the upper 90s and low
100s each afternoon. Models finally show an attempt at a pattern
change for the weekend, with a large-scale trough sweeping across
the country, bringing a cold front across Texas on Saturday.
Initial thoughts are the front will have limited moisture to work
with, so rain chances will remain low for the weekend.


Now through Sunday: Seas were near 4 feet with south winds near
18 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Light southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters today before a cold front moves
through the coastal waters late this afternoon into early this
evening. Will go ahead and issue small craft advisories for the
Laguna Madre and offshore waters for tonight as strong northeast
to north winds develop with high pressure building in the wake of
the front. The pressure gradient will remain strong across the
western Gulf of Mexico Sunday but winds and seas will diminish Sun
afternoon as high pressure settles across the lower Texas coast.

Monday through Wednesday: Much more tranquil marine conditions to
start the week, with light southerly winds and seas around 2 feet
Monday and Tuesday. The gradient strengthens by midweek due to a
strong system moving across Oklahoma. Southerly winds will
increase to around 20 knots, which will push wave heights up to 5
to 7 feet for the Gulf.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  63  77  59 /  20  30  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          92  62  78  58 /  20  30  10   0
HARLINGEN            93  61  79  54 /  20  30  10   0
MCALLEN              95  61  80  57 /  20  30  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  60  81  55 /  20  30  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  65  75  66 /  20  30  10   0


GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM
     CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday
     for GMZ150-155-170-175.



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