Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 271945
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES STEADILY ROCKETING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH THE
WESTWARD-MOVING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES. EVEN WITH THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER-AIR
SOUNDING SHOWING 1.66 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND ABUNDANT
DRY AIR ABOVE 2000 FEET...SOME CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES...AND 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND EXTENDED OVER THE BRO CWFA...DRY AIR WILL RESULT.

MONDAY...INVERTED 500 MB TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE BASE OF THE RIDGE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST AND MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
ADJACENT NORTH OF MEXICO. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH CONTINUED LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. FELT INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE TOO COOL...
SO OPTED TO INDICATE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY FOR THIS
DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA (PWATS
NEARING 1 INCH)...MORE DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY. INHERITED OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS
...AND THESE LOOKED REASONABLE (AND WERE RETAINED) GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
HOT/HUMID/DRY ALL WORK WEEK...BREEZIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOME
PRECIP CHANCE SAT/SUN BUT TRENDING DRIER RUN TO RUN.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN GOVERNING THE REGIONS WEATHER CHANGES VERY
LITTLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN EXTENSION EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS KEEPS THE BERMUDA HIGH WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AND LEADS TO
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FUELED PRIMARILY BY LAND/SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING UNCOMFORTABLE AS LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IS RECHARGED BY ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S COASTAL TO 100 TO 105 INLAND WERE INHERITED AND AGREE
WITH FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE AND BIAS CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND CHANGED BOTH MAXES AND MINS VERY LITTLE IN
THIS TIME FRAME WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THURSDAY THE ONLY APPRECIABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT LEE TROUGHING
APPEARS TO GROW A LITTLE MORE INTENSE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
250/500MB DIGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOCAL WINDS
BACK INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
500MB HEIGHTS STILL AROUND 592 TO 594 DAM.

FRIDAY A JET MAXIMUM WORKS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF BROAD EASTERN US
TROUGHING AND CARRIES A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO INITIATE SOME PRECIP/ACTIVITY TO OUR
NORTHEAST BUT THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW DOES NOT QUITE REACH
INTO THE CWA AND LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT STILL HOT AND BREEZY.
COLUMN RH DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COLUMN THICKNESS VALUES DROP A
FEW DM AND FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
MAXES ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENT
FORECASTS FOR SENSIBLE WX. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH 250/500MB
RIDGING TO THE EAST AND THIS SHIFTS THE DIRECTION OF STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS THE RIDGING RETREATING AS DEEPER AND STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLIES PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS MOVES A SHEAR
ZONE/BOUNDARY/AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF GENERATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIP.
THE GFS DELAYS THIS PROCESS UNTIL SUNDAY AND KEEPS SATURDAY BREEZY
AND DRY.  MODEL TRENDS FROM 12 TO 24 HOURS LEAN DRIER WITH THE
RIDGING HOLDING AND THE SEASON HAS PLAYED OUT THAT WAY SO FAR SO
WORKED THE FORECAST IN THE DRIER DIRECTION BUT DID LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. IF THE STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SOLUTION EVENTUALLY VERIFIES EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY THAT IS A PRETTY CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS. KEPT MAXES A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON
SATURDAY BUT COOLED THEM ON SUNDAY OWING TO DEEPER HUMIDITY...LOWER
THICKNESSES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. /68-JGG/

&&

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET WITH
A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 8 PM CDT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS
AND DROP IN SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED...AND SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  96  78  94 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  96  78  95 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            77 100  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79 102  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 102  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  92  80  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...66-TOMASELLI
LONG TERM...68-GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...BILLINGS




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