Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 172006
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
306 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): 500mb ridge across the
western Gulf of Mexico and south Texas will provide subsidence
across the CWA in general tonight into Monday. However...low to mid
level moisture across portions of northeast Mexico and the western
Gulf of Mexico will allow convection to continue to develop across
the coastal waters tonight into Monday. In addition...isolated
showers and thunderstorms will develop across the coastal sections
of the CWA Monday as the seabreeze front develops along the lower
Texas coast and moves inland.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): A quick look down the model
road shows that a 590 or so decameter mid level ridge will set up
shop and maintain a presence over the west Gulf and the CWA for
much of the long term. Some weakening will occur toward the end of
the period, but even then there will be nothing really
significant supplanting the ridge to make a difference. High
pressure over the southeast United States will extend into the
north Gulf during this period as well, maintaining an overall
anticyclonic synoptic scale circulation across much of the basin.
A positive tilt long wave trough will deepen and elongate over the
southwest United States late in the week, weakening and
reorienting the overhead ridge slightly, but the overall effects
seem otherwise uncertain. By opening up the west Gulf to reduced
capping, the model guidance allows thunderstorm chances to
increase a skosh, but the mid levels would dry out more with what
would then be a north flow aloft.

That said, the southwest Gulf will remain convectively active
and, when supported by the anticipated persistent southeast wind
pattern, enhanced moisture will be no stranger to the lower Texas
coast. Thus, maintained the persistent inherited 20 percent pops
over the marine areas. Sea breezes will be a regular visitor to
the coastal counties this week, though not explicitly mentioned
every day. Not much variation in temps will be expected, running a
few degrees above normal, that is 90s to near 100 by day and 70s
by night. A mix of clouds and sun and a light to moderate
southeast wind will round out the particulars.

&&

.MARINE: Tonight through Monday night: Seas were near 2 feet with
north to northeast winds near 8 knots at buoy019 and near 3 feet
with southeast winds near 12 knots at buoy002. In addition...winds
were south near 2 knots at buoy045. Light to moderate southeast
winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight with surface
high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
gradient will remain weak across the western Gulf of Mexico
Monday. Light east to southeast winds will prevail across the
coastal waters Monday. Winds will increase slightly offshore the
lower TX coast Mon night.

Tuesday through Friday night: High pressure will remain in control,
supporting light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate
seas throughout. Intervals of light to moderate isolated showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  92  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  94  78  92 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            75  97  77  94 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              79  98  79  97 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 100  79  99 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  88  80  88 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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