Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 281132 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AT ALL AERODROMES...
AND SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR MODERATE LEVELS. 11 TO
3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF CLEARING
SKIES OVER CENTRAL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...SO IT APPEARS THE TREND OF
THINNING CLOUDINESS IN THE CURRENT TAFS IS ON TRACK. MVFR IS
PREDICTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED
TO VFR BY THE SUCCESSIVE SHIFT IF THE CLEARING AND MIXING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN PREDICTED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE ADJACENT GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND EASTERN THIRD OF CAMERON COUNTY. AN
ONGOING FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
COASTAL CAMERON COUNTY.

TODAY...THE WATERWORKS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY GETS SHUT
OFF. AS A 500 MB TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS LOUISIANA....THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RAPIDLY WEAKENS...WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. WHILE MOST OF THE BRO CWFA WILL BE DRY...ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE BEST. INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED TOO WARM GIVEN
WIDESPREAD MOIST SOILS AND EXPECTED REMAINING CLOUD COVER...SO THESE
WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES.

TONIGHT...WEAK REMAINING 500 MB TROUGHINESS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
WILL COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HOLDING ON. WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE
INLAND AREAS...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S LOOKED
APPROPRIATE AND REASONABLE.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EAST AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES AS DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
QUICKLY TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCES EAST OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY DAY LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. SOME ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE AT
THE SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO WED.
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...OVER THE GULF
OF MX...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES. THIS SAME PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC
FRONT MOVES INTO THE TEXAS REGION FRIDAY. THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
BE CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND KEEP AN EAST FLOW ACROSS
THE CWA. THERE IS NO STRONG PUSH BEHIND THIS FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE
FRONT TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND AS A RESULT MAINTAIN THE
CONVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE WINDS WITH NO
DRASTIC CHANGES EXPECT BUT WILL FAVOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY AIR BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY AND QUICKLY VEER WINDS EAST AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL GIVE THE CWA  A
BREAK OF THE 90S KEEPING HIGHS AROUND THE 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
OVER 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. SMALL CRAFT
WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS CREATED BY
CONVECTION ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A DISSIPATING INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH
IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REPLACES THE TROUGH AND PREVAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
DUE TO A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUILDING SEAS
CLOSE TO 2 TO 4 FEET. THE MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES ALLOWING FOR
THE CHANCES OF RAIN TO RETURN AND CREATE ERRATIC WINDS AND SEAS. THE
THE EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AS A FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY
INTO THE AREA KEEPING THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY
DIMINISHING THE RAIN CHANCES. SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN WINDS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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