Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 261139 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
639 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...MVFR ceilings at MFE will mix out after sunrise.
VFR conditions elsewhere and through the day at all locations.
Expecting moderate to strong and gusty south southeast winds from
late this morning through this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The next in a series of short
waves will move east into the High Plains today, with underlying
surface pressure falls serving to tighten the gradient and produce
breezy to windy conditions. Along with the southeast wind, look for
a mix of clouds and sun and warm weather with high temps. ranging
from the mid 80s east to the mid 90s inland.

The plains mid level trough will move rapidly east today, with high
pressure filling in behind it under an advancing short wave ridge.
Skies will be mostly clear tonight with light winds and low temps.
ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Monday will be mostly sunny with moderate southeast winds. High
temperatures will again range from the mid 80s east to the mid 90s
inland. Needless to say, under this regime rain chances will be
virtually non-existent in the short term.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): The most significant
event in the long term portion of the forecast continues to be the
approach and passage of a cold front late Wednesday night and
Thursday morning, respectively, with isolated showers/thunderstorms
forecast. Another shot of isolated precipitation may occur on
Saturday as closed 500 mb low pressure begins moving through the
Desert Southwest. The remainder of the forecast is expected to be
dry with a zonal mid-level flow and surface high pressure in place
for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Well above normal
temperatures in advance of the aforementioned cold front won`t be
cooled much in the wake of the front.

Beyond the official long term forecast period, model guidance
suggests that deep closed 500 mb low pressure moving east through
Texas may bring a better chance of rainfall for the BRO CWFA
Sunday night through Monday.

MARINE (Now through Monday): Winds and seas have temporarily
settled down this morning, but conditions will deteriorate today.
Pressure falls in the southern High Plains will interact with Gulf
high pressure to tighten the gradient and bump up south southeast
winds today and tonight. For now, will headline small craft
should exercise caution conditions for today, although marginal
small craft advisory conditions will be possible, especially
offshore as seas build. The Plains storm system will move quickly
east today and tonight, however, and high pressure filling in from
behind will help quash the gradient. Winds will be moderate on
Monday, though exercise caution may be needed offshore due to
lingering higher wave heights.

Monday Night through Saturday: Small Craft Advisory winds and/or
seas will affect the Lower Texas coastal waters from Tuesday
through Thursday due to a tight surface pressure gradient in
advance of the Thursday night passage of a cold front. The front
will actually serve to diminish winds and subside seas, with much
more favorable marine conditions anticipated for Friday and Friday
night. However, the improvement will be short-lived, with a return
to adverse winds and seas expected for Saturday.




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