Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 102201
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
401 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): The models did not
disappoint on the strength of the winds this afternoon with both
Brownsville and Harlingen reporting wind gusts of 40-45 mph.  Winds
do slowly decouple this evening but remain somewhat gusty overnight.
Strong pressure gradient persist into Wednesday as Front Range Low
pressure deepens and combines with broad surface ridge anchored over
the Gulf. The low level jet strengthens and broadens overnight into
with models suggesting 45 knots at 925mb. Daytime heating Wednesday
will allow for thermal mixing of these higher winds which will
produce another windy day across much of the Lower and Mid RGV.
Above average confidence and a wider expanse of the stronger winds
will warrant the issuance of a wind advisory for Hidalgo, Cameron
and Willacy counties for 11am-5pm Wednesday.

1000-500mb thickness and 850mb temperatures continue to rise as the
southerly winds deepen. The maximum temperatures the last few days
have exceeding model guidance numbers and do not see why this should
not happen again Wednesday. Forecast calls for very warm
temperatures tomorrow as much as 12-18 degrees above normal.
Dewpoints have shown some resilience and have been lower then what
the models have been suggesting which is likely due to the downward
mixing of drier air aloft. As a result have not seen any sea fog
developing and confidence is low if any will form within the
stronger wind regime or until dew points inch upward. Will maintain
the patchy fog at this time along the immediate coast and let later
shifts monitor for any changes. Also, overnight lows will be
slightly lower with guidance catching on the lower numbers.


.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): Much more amplified pattern
setting up starting Thursday as The H5 ridge across the gulf
shifts west and the next trough dives down the spine of the
Rockies. The ridge remains the more dominant of the two Thursday
with high temperatures still in the 80s. Rain chances begin to
increase starting Friday as the trough to the west begins to shift
upper flow from the southwest, tapping some Pacific moisture at
midlevels. Expect a slight chances for showers each day, mainly as
streamer showers during the morning and seabreeze-type showers
developing in the afternoon. Models trying to come to a solution
regarding the ejecting trough, moving it into the central plains
later Sunday. Even with differing tracks for the upper low, the
lower level effects remains similar, as it drags a surface front
into the region Monday or Tuesday. Temperatures will not change
much with the front, but may focus rain chances and bring a better
chance for thunder each afternoon.


&&

.MARINE:
Now through Wednesday: Buoy 42020 reported South winds around 21
knots with seas near 8 feet at 300 pm CST. The pressure gradient
remains strong and will maintain higher seas overnight with some
slight lowering of the wind possibly. Winds over the Laguna are
likely to lower this evening but are expected to increase once
again before noon Wednesday. Small craft advisories for the Gulf
waters 20-60nm east of Padre island have been extended until noon
Wednesday and are likely to be extended again with no expected
diminishing of the southerly fetch. Also, a SCA is issued for the
Southern portions of the Laguna Madre for Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday: Southeast winds remain consistent through
the weekend as low pressure begins to build in the central plains.
Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range all
weekend, keeping wave heights around 4 to 5 feet. Expect a small
chance for rainfall each night as streamer showers begin to
develop in nocturnal marine instability.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  66  82  69  80 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          65  84  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            63  86  68  86 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              63  88  67  87 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      59  88  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  72  69  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM CST Wednesday for TXZ253>257.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 6 PM CST this evening for
     GMZ130-132.

     Small Craft Advisory for winds from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday
     for GMZ130-132.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon CST Wednesday
     for GMZ170-175.

&&

$$

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