Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 182328 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
628 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT
ALONG A WEAK AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME CIG
OBSTRUCTIONS TONIGHT...MOSTLY LIKELY IN THE 2000 TO 3000 FT RANGE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVING WAY TO
PREVAILING VFR IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AMID STEADYING
SOUTHEAST WINDS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MORNING MCS SWEPT
ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS STABILIZED THINGS LIKELY FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SOME SMALL SCALE SHOWERS IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND REMNANT
-R SHIELD FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL KEEP THE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE...HOLDING TEMPS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LULL IN
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS NO BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS BETTER HEATING AND REMAINING PW
VALUES ABOVE 1.8 INCHES WILL FUEL CONVERGENCE ON THE SEA BREEZE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A BETTER
TIME DEVELOPING TOMORROW WITH DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND REASONABLE
LLVL WIND PROFILE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONG TERM LOOKS RATHER
QUIET OVERALL. MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY...THEREAFTER REMAINING ESSENTIALLY
STATIONARY BUT FLATTENING SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON
SUNDAY...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND WILL TRIGGER CONV
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF...BUT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND THE CWA
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN AROUND FRIDAY...WITH PWAT JUMPING FROM AN INCH AND A
HALF TO AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS...BUT THE EFFECT MAY NOT BE
MORE THAN AN ENHANCEMENT OF ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY...SINCE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE DOESN`T LOOK TO HARBOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES. MAX TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OR
NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WIND PROFILE HAS BEEN LESS THAN
FORECAST...WITH SEAS REACTING MORE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM
ACROSS THE GULF. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...REMAINING MODEST
AROUND 10 KTS. THE LONG PERIOD FETCH WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW...
KEEPING SEAS AROUND 4 FT THROUGHOUT. NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES
OR CAUTION STATEMENTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER
THE WEST GULF. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT TO MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  91  81  93 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  92  81  94 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            78  94  80  97 /  20  30  10  10
MCALLEN              78  97  80  99 /  20  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  98  80 101 /  20  30  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  82  89 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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