Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 140432 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1032 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...CLR skies and L/V winds continue tonight as high
pressure settles across south Texas. Tomorrow morning, the high
moves offshore, allowing light southeast flow to return. Winds
will remain light around 10 knots, with only a few clouds possible
right along the coast during peak heating hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 521 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Skies remain nearly clear, with only a few high cirrus
sweeping eastward above KBRO. Expect skies to remain clear
through the remainder of the night and through most of tomorrow
with high pressure in the vicinity. The high will also allow winds
to become L/V overnight. The high moves just to the east
tomorrow, allowing southeast flow to return tomorrow morning, but
will remain around 10kts through the day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Cool, rain free weather will
continue in the short term, though by Sunday temperatures will warm
closer to normal. There has been little change in the large scale
pattern with high pressure in control at the surface and mid level
ridging upstream. Light northeast winds will prevail tonight through
Sunday morning under clear skies with low temperatures in the 30s
and 40s. As high pressure begins to shift east on Sunday, winds will
veer to east and southeast, also allowing dew points to increase.
Moisture return in the 900 to 850 mb layer on Sunday will eliminate
the dew point depression at the level of an elevated inversion,
allowing for a few to scattered afternoon clouds to form at around 4
kft. High temperatures on Sunday will be mainly in the 60s, just a
bit below normal, as cold air advection from the north ends and the
air mass in place modifies. Low temperatures Sunday night will be
close to 50 degrees, give or take a couple of degrees, which is
pretty much normal. Continued moisture return will add a little more
depth to the low cloud layer Sunday night.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Models are in good agreement
with the positively-tilted 500mb trough developing across the
eastern half of the country Monday into Tuesday. A strong cold
front is expected to move through south TX Tues morning and
through deep south TX Tues afternoon proving a slight chance of
showers across the area Mon night with a better chance of showers
on Tuesday. The rest of the forecast is dependent on how cold the
airmass is behind the front and how much moisture lingers across
the area Tues night into Wednesday. The GFS is currently trending
warmer than the ECMWF as far as temperatures and the ECMWF is
trending drier than the GFS as far as rain chances. The question
is if temperatures will be freezing across the northern ranchlands Wed
morning and if freezing rain/drizzle will develop across the
northern portions of the CWA as a result. For now will go a couple
degrees cooler than the model blends as far as temperatures but
will hold off on mentioning frozen/winter precipitation...mainly
freezing rain/drizzle due to the shallow nature of the
airmass...Wed morning. Rain chances will diminish across the area
Wednesday before a coastal low develops across the western Gulf of
Mexico Wed night and moves northward Thursday. This will provide
showers offshore the lower TX coast Wed night into Thursday with
light rain/drizzle across the lower TX coast and inland. Rain
chances will diminish Thurs night into Friday as the coastal low
moves northeast towards the southwest Louisiana coast Friday.
Below normal temperatures will prevail Tuesday through Friday
through Saturday.

MARINE (Now through Sunday night): High pressure will spread south
into the northwest Gulf today through Sunday night, starting to
shift east late in the period. Moderate northeast winds and moderate
seas will prevail tonight and Sun morning. Onshore flow will return
on Sunday, with winds shifting to east and then southeast Sunday
night.

Monday through Thursday...Moderate southeast winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Monday with a strong cold front moving
into the Texas panhandle and surface high pressure across the
southeast United States. Winds will back to the east and diminish
slightly Tuesday before the cold front moves offshore the lower TX
coast Tues afternoon. Very strong northeast winds will develop in
the wake of the cold front Tues evening with gusts to near gale
force Tues night through Wed morning. Small craft advisories will
be needed for the coastal waters Tues afternoon through at least
Wed night before a coastal low develops across the western Gulf of
Mexico Wed night and moves northward Thursday. Strong northeast
winds Wednesday should veer to the south and diminish Thursday as
a result but seas will remain elevated offshore the lower TX coast
Thursday.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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