Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 220611 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME LOCALIZED FOG NOW IN CAMERON COUNTY...ESPECIALLY
AT HRL. LOOKS LIKE MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID TO LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS BACKING TO
EAST AND NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN LATER IN THE DAY...WITH
DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAREDO TO NEAR
KINGSVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE EXTENDING
FROM BROWNSVILLE TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BROWNSVILLE RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWS ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS KENEDY AND WILLACY COUNTIES. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WILL BE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE 21Z HRRR INDICATES CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ZAPATA AND STARR THIS EVENING. THE 12Z NAM KEEPS
MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS...THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A
LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE VALLEY...AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WILL GO
ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. POOLING MOISTURE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND ENHANCED SEA BREEZE EFFECT...AND ANOTHER WEAK 500 MB
DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO
THE UPPER ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH WINDS
AROUND 2 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 4 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
3.3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 15 CDT/19 UTC. A WEAK
GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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