Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 161130 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
530 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...MVFR is trying to sneak in at the aerodromes, with the
real threat being low-level and non-convective wind shear, which
will last for the next few hours until surface winds increase. VFR
is likely after sunrise this morning, with a return to MVFR after
sunset tonight.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): The most recent surface analysis
indicates a cold front over central Texas from roughly Paris to
Eagle Pass. This front will push into the central portion of the BRO
CWFA during the short term forecast period before lingering briefly
and eventually backing just north into the CRP CWFA. Isolated
showers are forecast over most of the northern half of the BRO CWFA
today and tonight, with all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley under a threat of isolated showers on Tuesday. No significant
cold air surges will result in above normal daytime high and
overnight low temperatures during the entire forecast period.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): 500mb low/trough across
the southwest United States and northwest Mexico Tuesday will
provide unsettled weather across the state Tuesday through
early Thursday as the upper level low/trough moves eastward. Low
to mid level moisture will be high across south Texas and with a
stationary frontal boundary draped across the area...the potential
for showers and thunderstorms...some producing heavy
rainfall...exists Tues night through Thurs morning. Drier air
aloft will move into the CWA in the wake of the shortwave trough
Thurs night. This will bring an end to rain chances across south
TX from west to east Thursday into Thurs night. Another 500mb
trough across the west U.S. coast Thursday is expected to move
eastward Friday but moisture appears limited across south TX
through the rest of the forecast period as a 500mb low/trough
moves across the south central U.S. Sunday. This will allow a
frontal system to develop across the southern Plains Saturday into
Sunday and bring a Pacific cold front through south TX Sunday.

Now through Tuesday...Buoy 42020 reported south winds around 14
knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas of 7.5 feet with a
period of 8 seconds at 02 CST/08 UTC. A Small Craft Advisory for
the Gulf of Mexico waters east of Padre Island from 0 to 60
nautical miles offshore has been extended until noon today due to
anticipated rough seas. Afterwards, more moderate winds and seas,
with Small Craft Exercise Caution likely for at least a portion of
the Gulf waters, are expected for the remainder of the forecast
period as the swells subside slightly but persist, and a cold
front intrudes into the central portion of Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley.

Tuesday night through Friday...Light southeast winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Tues night as a weak cold front moves
across the coastal bend before becoming stationary. Light south
winds will prevail across the lower Texas coast Wednesday through
Friday as the frontal boundary across south TX Wednesday and
Thursday lifts northward towards the end of the week as a frontal
system develops across the southern plains Friday.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ150-155-170-175.


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