Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBRO 241914 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
214 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE HAS FIRED OFF A SMALL CLUSTER
OF CONV THAT IS STRADDLING THE RIO GRANDE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS. AT THIS TIME THIS CLUSTER OF CELLS MAY IMPACT THE MFE
AIRPORT AREA ON THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME
BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS. ADDITIONAL CONV IS FIRING
FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE BUT MAY DIE OFF AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE
MORE STABLE OUTFLOW LEFT OVER FROM THE CONV TO THE WEST. WILL
UPDATE THE MFR TAF TO ENHANCE THE CONV WORDING A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE CONV TO MOVE WEST AND DISIPATE
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES FURTHER WEST AND THE
DIURNAL HEATING DIES OFF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR KHRL AND KMFE LATE
AFTERNOON. BE ALERT FOR VARYING GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED IS DUE TO
DOWNPOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WHILE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
STRETCH ACROSS TEXAS...WEAK H2 CUTOFF LOW IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
SW GULF. SOME OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO FAR SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PW VALUES ALSO
RISING LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED TO
LOWER LEVELS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THE
SEABREEZE TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS MODEST ENOUGH THAT THE
SEABREEZE WILL PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE RIVER...SO HAVE TAILORED POP CHANCES TO
THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHATS LEFT OF THE H2 LOW WILL OPEN UP
BUT REMAIN IN THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. DRIER AIR MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...LIMITING POP CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR REACHES THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
RESULT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DEPENDS ON WHICH OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A BETTER HANDLE
OF THE 500MB SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. THE
ECWMF PROGS AN INVERTED TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPING WITH THIS FEATURE
SATURDAY AND BRINGS IT WESTWARD SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A 500MB
LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX EXPECT THE MSL FIELD TO REMAIN FAIRLY
RELAXED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY WILL
VEER TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  94  77  91 /  10  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  96  77  93 /  10  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            77  99  75  96 /  10  10  20  20
MCALLEN              80 101  78  99 /  10  10  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76 101  76  99 /  10  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  78  86 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.