Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 132335 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
635 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail
across deep south Texas this evening. VFR conditions will
continue through the next 24 hours with high pressure in control.
Clear skies and light winds expected for tonight with winds
becoming moderate to breezy on Thursday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley will be positioned between 500 mb high
pressure that will ease east from northwest Mexico to the north-
central part of the country, and 500 mb low pressure (the remnants
of Irma) that will gradually move from the Ohio River Valley to New
England. This synoptic pattern will result in dry weather with
little to no cloud cover for the BRO CWFA during the short term
forecast period. After several days of refreshing temperatures in
the wake of an early cold front, temperatures will return to well
above normal levels courtesy of the limited cloud cover and
decreasing precipitable water values.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The forecast remains
status quo for the most part with H5 ridging still generally
dominating the weather pattern over Texas through the weekend.
Although southerly flow will be in place at the surface, deeper
layer moisture will not become established until the latter half
of the weekend and into next week with models in generally good
agreement with the return of at least a small chance for coastal
and seabreeze convection. Heading into the middle of next week,
some model differences occur with the potential of an influx of
moisture from an Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone. The GFS seems
to hinting at more moisture at this time, as compared to the drier
ECMWF, but even so the bulk of the moisture surge appears to pass
well north of the RGV. As such, have left much of the POPs at the
end of the long term relatively unchanged for now. Otherwise, the
above normal temps will continue through the weekend, before
increased clouds cover/moisture allow readings to decrease a
couple of degrees overall.


Tonight through Thursday Night: Surface high pressure centered
roughly over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will dominate over the
entire basin throughout the period, including the Lower Texas
Coast. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas are
expected, with Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft
Advisory not likely to be needed.

Friday through Monday Night: The long term marine forecast will
largely be an extension of the short term, with high pressure
still in control over the Gulf. Southeast to east winds of
generally less than 15 knots prevailing through the period. Seas
should remain between 1 to 3 feet.




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