Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 250532 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1232 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE DEVELOPING WITH BASES AROUND 1.2K
FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. TOMORROW...FULL VFR
WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE BECOMING MORE MVFR AFTER SUNSET.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN PROGRESS OVER KENEDY AND
WILLACY COUNTIES BUT WILL END AROUND 01Z. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
CUMULUS OVER THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SKIES WERE
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW CIGS...MAINLY IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY...WILL REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
15Z MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A NEGATIVE TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. BROWNSVILLE RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
GULF WATERS BEING GENERATED BY THIS PASSING MID LEVEL FEATURE.
CONVECTION SHOULD END THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM COURTESY OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE
COAST...90S INLAND AND AROUND 100 ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICA AND THE CONUS SHOWS NO SIGNS
OF BREAKING DOWN ANYTIME SOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
WEST TO EAST FLOW OF SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE LOWS/TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FLOW MAKING
FOR A STEADY STATE FORECAST. DAILY VARIATION IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AT LEAST TWO OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOWS/TROUGHS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED TO SEE HOW MUCH
IMPACT THEY HAVE OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS OF THE WEEK WILL BE DAILY MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST LOW IS INDICATED TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH THEN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS SHOWN MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY ALLOW THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT REACHES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE MOISTURE DEPTH ON
WEDNESDSAY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DECREASING WHICH IS REFLECTED A
SUBSTANTIAL LOWERING OF POPS IN THE MOS GUIDANCE. THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONGER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF A TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE 12Z MODEL SUITE.
MOISTURE CHARTS ALSO INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH BUMPING UP THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO EVEN LOW END CHANCE
FOR SATURDAY. LOOKING AT THE WPC RAINFALL/QPF FORECAST FOR DAYS
3-7 KEEP ALL RAIN NORTH OF THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SO CONFIDENCE IN
LOWER POPS LOOKS WITHIN REASON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 3.3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 15 CDT/19 UTC. WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF INTERACTS WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GULF
WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH BE
SOMEWHAT ADVERSE AS QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. MARINERS CAN EXPECT BUILDING SEAS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
STEADY STATE HIGH SEA STATE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG RANGE.
OCCASIONAL OR EVEN EXTENDED PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY THIS WEEK FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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