Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241133 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL THREE AERODROMES AS A RESULT
OF LOW STRATUS. VFR WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE WITH SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING BREEZY AND CEILINGS RISING AND THINNING. IDEAL AVIATION
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MVFR TONIGHT
COURTESY OF RE-DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EXTENDED OVER THE BRO CWFA WILL COMBINE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S TO LOW 100S ARE ASSURED DUE TO THE RELATIVE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
AND THE PROXIMITY AND OPPRESSIVENESS OF THE HIGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND
GENERALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A 500 MB INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OF REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BY MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SILENT 10% POPS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S AT THE
BEACHES...MID TO UPPER 90S NEAR THE COAST AND 100 TO 105 ALONG AND
WEST OF I-69E/US 77 CORRIDOR. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 110. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY UNDER 3.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO BREEZY WINDS
OVER THE BAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON ON THE
LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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