Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 182100
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WAVE OF MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORIGINATED WITH A DISTURBANCE JUST OFF THE
MEXICO COAST ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS WAS A RARE
EVENT THAT WAS NOT CAPTURED IN THE GFS MOS OR NAM MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
NEVER THE LESS...WE WERE NOT TOO SURPRISED SINCE THE SATELLITE
CAPTURED THE CONVECTION PLUME APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. WE DID SEE SOME SOME VERY HIGH GUSTS IN THE SOUTH TEXAS
AND MARINE AREAS WITH A OUTFLOW OF WINDS FROM THE CONVECTIVE LINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AS OF THIS WRITING.

WILL CARRY POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS SINCE OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO INITIATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY 06Z.

ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IT AGAIN...THE
SAME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH UP THE
MEXICO COAST AND THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS FOR MORNING
OFFSHORE AND ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BETTER TO BE PESSIMISTIC
IN THESE SITUATION WHEN YOU HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DAYTIME HEATING OUGHT TO ALSO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WELL. BET BET FOR RAIN IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE INLAND COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MEXICO COAST DISTURBANCE
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE LESS OF A WEATHER
MAKER AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE DOME TO THE NORTH
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND ARKANSAS
REGION...THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY. WE ARE
WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF TWO TUTT LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT GENERALLY WILL HELP INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NOW THOUGH...JUST EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...STILL...THOSE PLANNING TO GO
OUTDOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME WILL SWEAT LIKE THE DICKENS AND WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RE-HYDRATED WITH WATER. SEEK A COOLER SHELTER
IF YOU FEEL FAINT FROM THE HEAT. NEVER CAN BE TOO CAUTIOUS UNDER
THE TEXAS SUN (FIGURATIVELY SPEAKING).

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DURING TUESDAY`S EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL
REISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEE LITTLE CHANGE DAY
TO DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 FEET DAILY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  96  81  96 /  20  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          80  97  80  97 /  20  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            79  99  79  99 /  20  30  10  20
MCALLEN              80 102  80 101 /  20  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 103  79 102 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  92  81  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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