Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 172101
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT PUSHED THE STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LAST NIGHT WILL BE SHIFTING STEADILY EASTWARDS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND PRETTY QUICKLY FROM THE E-NE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ALLOWING THE COLD AIR TO STEADILY MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. THE CLR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BE
PRETTY SHORT LIVED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START RETURNING
PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGHOUT TOMORROW. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT
SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK COASTAL SURFACE TROFFING TO SET UP LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUES AND TUES NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLGT
CHC OF R-/L-.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE NIGHT FOR THE INLAND AREAS CONTINUES
TO BE HOW LOW WILL TEMPS DROP OFF. THE CLD COVER IS ERODING AWAY
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE DRIER N-NW FLOW MOVING INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS
EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE FAIRLY BRISK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL SEVERELY LIMIT
ANY RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. SO OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL RELY SOLELY ON
CAA FROM THE NORTH. ALSO THERE EXIST SOME POTENTIAL OF CLD COVER
RETURNING LATER TONIGHT AS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE COASTAL TROFFING. IF THIS POTENTIAL CLD COVER
DOES FORM UP IT WOULD ALSO TEND TO LIMIT ANY RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

THIS ALL BEING SAID SOME ISOLATED POINTS COULD REACH NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE ANY FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME.

AFTER TONIGHT THE INCREASING WAA AND THE MODERATION OF THE COLD AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO INCREASE STEADILY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A SHORT RANGE MODEL BLEND FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND MID LEVEL ENERGY SCOOTS BY. DIV Q INCREASES
BEHIND THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY RAIN TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SO HAVE DECREASED POP CHANCES ACROSS THE LAND AREAS EXCEPT
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF. SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A BETTER CHANCE
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN A STRONGER MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS REGION OF WEST TEXAS THEN QUICKLY
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE MORE OF A PACIFIC TYPE SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD
AIR AND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW CAPPING THE
REGION OFF FROM MOST PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY WITH THE MODELS DISAGREEING ON THE TIMING OF PASSAGE.
EITHER WAY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND WE
WILL ENJOY A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH. IF WINDS DO INDEED BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.
THE WEAK FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN
5-8 DEGREES WHICH WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PGF REMAINS STRONG
ENOUGH ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN
SCA/GALE CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE PGF WILL BE SLOWLY
WEAKENING OVER BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS INTO TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT TO POSSIBLY ALLOW THE SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR TO LINGER ON ACROSS THE BAY WATERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SO WILL LEAVE THE SCA IN PLACE FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE FOR THE GULF.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  45  60  55  68 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          43  61  53  69 /  10  20  30  20
HARLINGEN            41  59  51  68 /  10  20  20  10
MCALLEN              41  58  50  67 /   0  20  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      40  57  48  67 /   0  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   50  62  58  69 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...65





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