Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 151748 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mid-level ridge building eastward into Texas will
allow for subsidence and continued drying aloft with VFR
conditions over the next 24 hours. Modest SE breezes this
afternoon with only a few cumulus clouds. Winds should stay up
just enough tonight to prevent formation of any fog/mist at the
terminals. BUFKIT forecast soundings suggest a low cloud deck
could form toward dawn at all three terminals. However, not even a
hint of this in the statistical guidance, so will downplay for


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
mostly clear skies across the CWA this morning. Ceilings were near
2300ft at KPIL. Visibilities were near 4sm with fog at KBKS and
KHBV. Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande
valley and northern ranchlands today as the 500mb ridge across
northern Mexico and southwest Texas provides subsidence across the

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb ridge across northern
Mexico and the western half of the state will provide subsidence
across the CWA today. Subsidence will increase across the area
tonight into Sunday as the upper level ridge of high pressure
moves eastward across Texas tonight. Low to mid level moisture
will be limited across south TX so not much in the way of rain
chances are expected through Sunday. Will lean towards persistence
for temperatures today and Sunday as observed highs the past two
days have been slightly warmer than MOS temp guidance.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): The most significant
weather event during the long term portion of the forecast will be
the Thursday night passage of a cold front through Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the immediate passage of the front, with isolated showers
possible during the daylight hours of Thursday and Friday due to
relatively decent moisture in place. Otherwise, the remainder of
the forecast appears dry courtesy of broad 500 mb high pressure
centered over the BRO CWFA. The presence of the high and an onshore
flow will produce above normal temperatures in advance of the front,
but finally tempered to more near normal levels in the wake of the
front by the end of the long term forecast period.

MARINE (Today through Sunday):  Seas were near 4 feet with east to
southeast winds near 16 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Light
southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters today with
surface low pressure across the Texas panhandle and surface high
pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico. WInds will be slightly
higher offshore the lower TX coast tonight but the pressure gradient
will remain weak across the western Gulf of Mexico. Light to
moderate southeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf of
Mexico tonight as a result. Light southeast winds will continue
across the coastal waters Sunday.

Sunday Night through Friday: Small Craft Advisories are possible
for all or portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters Friday due
to the passage of a cold front. Otherwise, light to moderate
winds and low to moderate seas are anticipated along the Lower
Texas Coast in advance of the front through the remainder of the
forecast period.




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