Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 132343 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
643 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Low level CU field dissipating with low of heating,
leaving behind cirrus shield drifting in from the northwest.
Expect low clouds to remain limited tonight as cirrus insulates
the lower layers. Winds will decrease to 5 to 10 knots from the
southeast overnight. Winds tomorrow will be lighter than today,
generally around 10 knots. Moisture will be a little more limited
tomorrow, so CU field will be more limited and shower chances will
be minimized through the afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): Current radar imagery shows
isolated showers and thunderstorms affecting the coastal counties
and portions of the northern ranchlands. Activity should decrease in
coverage after sunset. Drier air will move into the mid levels of
the atmosphere in the wake of an inverted trough tonight and Friday,
limiting rain chances. Have kept isolated PoPs for the eastern area
with ESE surface winds providing sea breeze potential with modest
low level moisture, in addition to slight discrepancies in 12Z model
guidance. A decrease in clouds and slightly higher 1000-500mb
thickness values expected, afternoon temperatures should warm up
several degrees from today into the mid and upper 90s for much of
the area.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): 500mb inverted trough
across the western Gulf of Mexico Saturday will move slowly
westward into portions of south Texas and northeast Mexico Sunday
into Monday. Low to mid level moisture will increase across the
CWA through the weekend into early next week. This will provide a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and a chance
of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday. A slight
chance of rain will continue through the rest of the forecast
period as low to mid level moisture remains high across northeast
Mexico and the Rio Grande valley...and a 500mb low/inverted
trough across the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday moves westward
into Mexico Wednesday.

MARINE (Now through Friday night): Very broad surface high pressure
over the Gulf waters with a weak pressure gradient will maintain
favorable marine conditions across the lower Texas coastal waters.
Light to moderate southeast winds and low seas of around 2 feet will
continue through the short term period.

Saturday through Tuesday...Light south winds will prevail across
the coastal waters Saturday with weak high pressure across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Weak low pressure is expected to develop
across the coastal bend Sunday. The pressure gradient should
remain weak across the lower Texas coast Sunday through Tuesday.
Light south to southeast winds should prevail across the western
Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the forecast period.




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