Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS64 KBRO 170843
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
343 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
AND PROPAGATING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. ALTHOUGH
ALL SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD AT ROUGHLY
22K FEET FROM THE WEST.

TODAY...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE BRO CWFA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. WITH A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS OVERHEAD...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281/
INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR. INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL...AND THESE WERE RETAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE WEAK INVERTED TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
TEXAS COASTLINE...GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE SEASONAL AFTER THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...ENOUGH WEAKENING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
TEXAS COASTLINE WILL REMAIN TO CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR THE BRO CWFA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED THURSDAY HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW
FILTERING IN MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EAST. MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL REMAIN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND POSSIBLY MIGRATE
INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE VALLEY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN TEXAS BUT MOISTURE BEEN PULL NORTHWARD AND
INSTABILITY IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCE POTENTIAL
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND INCREASE CLOSE TO THE
90S TOWARDS THE WEST SUNDAY. THE RAIN POTENTIAL DECREASES INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONUS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST BY
EARLY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AND AS A RESULT STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH BLYR WINDS
SHOWING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOS AS BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN TOWARDS THE NORTH BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT THIS SE WINDS TO
INCREASE THE WAA ACROSS THE CWA HELPING TEMPERATURES TO REACH BETWEEN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S WEST OF HIGHWAY
281. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAIN UNIFORMLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70 DEGREE RANGE.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 19 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SHOWERS OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ARE CAUSING STRONGER WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AND
THESE WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT BUILDING SEAS MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR EVEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED IN THE
IMMEDIATE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL HOWEVER...MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY
AS RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS REGION WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS FROM THE E WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET SATURDAY.
RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD SHIFTING MODERATE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO SUNDAY AND BUILDING UP TO 5 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK... ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AND KEEP
SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL BEGINS TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE NW PACIFIC COAST AND DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW. THIS
WILL INCREASE SE WINDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUILDING SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  68  78  70 /  20  20  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  68  81  69 /  20  20  20  10
HARLINGEN            80  67  81  68 /  20  20  20  10
MCALLEN              82  68  84  68 /   0  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  68  84  68 /   0  20  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  69  77  70 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/67






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.