Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 171949
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday night): Shower activity continues
to bubble up around the region due to midlevel inverted trough
bringing instability and deeper moisture. Activity should continue
through sunset, activating further along numerous outflow boundaries
seen on GOES16 and radar. Once the sun sets, heating instability
wanes and thunderstorm activity as a result. Have kept chance
showers for the upper valley through midnight to cover for evening
precipitation. Shower activity will become more confined overnight
into tomorrow as drier air pushes aloft pushes into the region. The
seabreeze will still try to activate a few showers during the
afternoon hours, but dry air capping will keep showers from growing
considerably, and will keep the rainfall amounts low. Activity wanes
again after sunset tomorrow.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): A mid-level ridge will sit
over the southern High Plains Wednesday. High pressure will remain
king over the Gulf as well, supporting a weak to mdt anticyclonic
southeast flow. A mix of clouds and sun and near normal to slightly
above normal temperatures look probable. Isolated Gulf showers will
stand up along the way, as will an almost daily sea breeze. Wed and
Thursday look like the best opportunities for slowly fading rain
chances. High temperatures will nudge up a couple of degrees moving
into the end of the week and the weekend. Low temperatures will
range from the mid 70s to near 80, while high temperatures will be
mainly in the 90s to near the century mark Wednesday, with peak
upper values creeping a few degrees above the century mark out west
later in the period, supporting associated heat index values up to
110 degrees.

&&

.MARINE:
Now through Tuesday night: Seas remain very tranquil today, with
swells running less than 2 feet across the northwest Gulf. Light
seas will continue through the next 36 hours as high pressure
remains firmly ahold of the northern Gulf and storm systems sweep
along the Canadian border, well away from influencing Texas. Main
marine impact will be the continued threat for showers and
thunderstorms tonight as deeper moisture taps midlevel
instability.

Wednesday through Saturday: Broad high pressure over the Gulf will
support light to moderate winds, mainly out of the southeast, and
low to moderate seas. Occasional marine convection will develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  79  93 /  20  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  93  78  92 /  20  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            76  97  77  95 /  20  10  10  30
MCALLEN              78  99  79 100 /  20  20  10  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 101  78 101 /  30  20  10  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  81  86 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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