Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 180934
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
434 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday): Unsettled weather will
continue in the short term. The CWA will remain in a marginal
severe tstorm risk area. A cold front will push into south central
Texas today while a mid level short wave trough moves across
Arizona and New Mexico, maintaining a potentially destabilizing
west southwest flow aloft, if weak disturbances are detected
moving within the flow. Dew points south of the surface front,
that is in deep South Texas and the RGV, will remain elevated,
mainly in the 70s. Convection may again fire in the mountains of
Mexico with peak heating later today, moving east into the CWA, in
addition to any frontal convection. Convection early this morning
pushed east into the CWA, with large hail being the primary
hazard, but also with the threat of strong, damaging winds.
Furthermore, convection initiating this afternoon and tonight, and
moving across the area, may linger into Thursday morning.

Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with high temps in the 80s and lower
90s today and Thursday. Low temperatures in the 70s tonight.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will prevail through a majority of the
long term portion of the forecast, specifically from Thursday
night through Sunday, as a series of disturbances within a west-
southwest to east-northeast 500 mb flow over Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley generate convection. Drier weather is
anticipated Sunday night and through the end of the forecast as
500 mb ridging develops over the Lone Star State and persists.
Well above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures will
be the norm.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Thursday): Light to moderate east to
southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail through the short
term. Southeast winds will steady out at moderate southeast on
Thursday as a tighter gradient develops over the northwest Gulf,
pushing a remnant frontal boundary over the middle Texas coast
back north.

Thursday night through Tuesday: Generally moderate winds and seas
are forecast along the Lower Texas Coast during the period with
surface high pressure in control over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not
likely to be needed.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  76  86  77 /  20  30  40  40
BROWNSVILLE          87  76  88  77 /  20  30  40  40
HARLINGEN            89  75  89  76 /  30  40  50  40
MCALLEN              91  76  91  76 /  40  40  50  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  74  92  74 /  60  50  50  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  77  83  78 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...Miller-54
Long Term...Tomaselli-66
WX4PPT/Meso...Birchfield-67



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