Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 240949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
349 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TO COVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND GULF WATERS 0-20NM
EAST OF THE COASTLINE. DENSE MARINE FOG ADVECTED IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED ITS N-NW PROGRESSION EVEN
REACHING EASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY. DID ALSO EXTEND THE TIMING
THROUGH 12Z BASED ON THE HRRR NOT BRINGING FROPA THROUGH THE LOWER
VALLEY TILL 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS NOT UNTIL 14Z. SPEAKING OF THE
FRONT...11-3.9 MICRON SHOWS THE FRONT CLEARLY THROUGH MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS AS A FINE LINE OF LOWER STRATUS WITH KRKP AND KCRP
WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTRAPOLATING USING
CURRENT SPEED PLACES THE FRONT IN THE LOWER VALLEY BY 12Z MATCHING
UP WITH THE HRRR.

NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE COAST THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE
LONGER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. WILL BE A NICE AND COOL DAY TODAY
WITH A SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S IN THE RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THEN SINK SOUTHWARDS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL
KEEP SOME CLOUDS CLOUDS AROUND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE 500MB TROUGH UPSTREAM SWINGS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MET/MAV TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CAME IN COOLER SO
TRENDED OUR TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN
OUTLYING AREAS. TUESDAY HIGHS ARE A REPEAT OF TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY QUIET AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PRIOR FORECAST. ALL IN ALL A MILD AND FAIRLY DRY WEEK IS IN THE
WORKS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. A 500 MB TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY NUDGES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WEAK TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO INVADE AT LEAST THE 20-60NM WATERS
TUESDAY AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS RISING BACK UP
TO AROUND 7 FEET.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS OF 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  51  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          72  51  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            70  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              71  47  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  47  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  57  70  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ251-
     254>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

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