Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 021744 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA...AND VISIBLE
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A BKN TO OVC CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE AREA. BRO AND
HRL SHOW MVFR CIGS WHILE MFE IS JUST ABOVE 3 KFT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND WITH THE SHIFT IN DIRECTION TO NORTH...
OPPOSING ANY FURTHER ADDITION OF PARTICULATE MATTER FROM AG BURNS
OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AT THIS TIME BUT ABUNDANT HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE
NEXT HOUR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR TO IFR WITH A MIX OF
HZ AND FOG THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MID MORNING.
NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENT IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBS SHOW WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE FRONT
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING HOURS BACKING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH FROPA TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL FILTER IN WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OUT WEST AND LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST
WITH BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK. INTO TONIGHT EXPECT ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A THICK CLOUD DECK TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH CAA INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE
BREAK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPS SEEN ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
THE SLIGHT COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT REACHING THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS
THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE RIO GRANDE ENHANCING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOWER COAST TUESDAY WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE LIMITED FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES  AS MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH NEAR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 80S THROUGH
THE DAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST IS LARGELY QUIET. THE AXIS OF 500 MB RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES SIMULTANEOUSLY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH A GRADUAL WARM-
UP OF DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A 500 MB
TROUGH POSSIBLY INITIATES CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEIGHBORING MEXICO THAT MAY THEN ADVECT INTO THE BRO CWFA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
ZONES TODAY BUILDING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS
BY MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THIS MORNING EXPECT A CHANCE OF ISO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE DAY AND
EARLY EVENING. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS
ALLOWING SEAS TO RETURN TO 5 TO 6 FEET FOR THE NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TUESDAY WITH HIGH DEEP MOISTURE IN THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...SPECIFICALLY FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EITHER SOUTH TEXAS OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MORE ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS...FEATURING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND/OR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE
ISLAND...ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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