Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 181124 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
624 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours. Moderate
winds are anticipated today with scattered cloudiness. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are in the official forecast for today,
but have been left out of the current suite of TAFs due to
coverage that will be very isolated in nature. Winds will rapidly
diminish to light and then variable levels beginning near sunset
this evening and for the overnight hours. A few clouds tonight
will affect the skies overhead.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): A few isolated showers were
observed over mainly the central portion of the BRO CWFA on Sunday
with moist and hot conditions in place. A gradual increase in deep
moisture will occur during the forecast period with precipitable
water values approaching and remaining near 2 inches. Very subtle
500 mb and surface inverted troughiness will also prevail along the
Lower Texas Coast. These conditions will generate isolated showers
and thunderstorms within Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
today and tomorrow and isolated streamer showers over the Lower
Texas coastal waters tonight. Inherited daytime high and overnight
low temperatures appeared slightly too cool based on observations
and trends over the past couple of days and were increased slightly.
LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): Low to mid level
moisture across the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday will move
westward into northeast Mexico around the southern periphery of
the 500mb ridge centered just north of the ARKLATEX Wednesday.
This will provide a slight chance to chance of showers and
thunderstorms across south Texas Wednesday through Friday as the
easterly flow aloft allows seabreeze convection to develop across
the coastal sections of the CWA and move inland each afternoon.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the rest of the forecast period as low to mid level
moisture remains relatively high across the Gulf of Mexico through
Today through Tuesday...Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds
around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly over
2.5 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. Surface high
pressure centered off the coast of the Carolinas will gradually
become recentered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico during the
forecast period, all the while remaining extended over the western
Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas
are forecast for the Lower Texas coastal waters with Small Craft
Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory not likely to be needed.
Tuesday night through Friday...Light to moderate east to southeast winds
will prevail across the coastal waters Tues night into Wednesday
as surface high pressure across the northeast United States
extending into the southeast U.S. provides a light easterly flow
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate east to
southeast winds should prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico
Thursday and Friday as the pressure gradient remains weak across
the lower Texas coast with the surface ridge across the western
North Atlantic extending westward into the Gulf of Mexico.
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