Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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600
FXUS64 KBRO 141905 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
105 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The daytime heating has quickly mixed out the morning
fog across the RGV leaving behind only some fair wx cu this
afternoon. A light E-SE low level flow will prevail on through the
upcoming 24 hours as surface ridging remains in place over the
Gulf Coast and the Gulf of Mex. The surface winds are expected to
weaken later tonight through early Wed morning as the atms
decouples. This will combine with good boundary layer moisture
levels to allow for the increased potential for late night/early
morning fog for the RGV airports. Some MVFR/IFR conditions will be
possible at all three airports from around 10-14Z Wed. The
increasing daytime heating and low level mixing after sunrise
tomorrow will likely bring around a return of VFR conditions late
in the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
some patchy fog and low clouds across portions of deep south
Texas this morning. Ceilings and visibilities will improve by mid
morning as the low clouds and fog lift and burn off with diurnal
heating. Surface high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico
will support east winds today and southeast winds tonight. Some
patchy fog and low ceilings may redevelop overnight but should not
drop below MVFR levels.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Mid level ridging anchored over
northwest Mexico and surface high pressure across the Ohio river
valley extending into the northern Gulf of Mexico will provide
subsidence across the region through the period. The combination of
moist soils from recent rainfall, mostly clear skies and light winds
has allowed patchy fog to develop across portions of deep south
Texas this morning. The fog is expected to lift and burn off with
diurnal heating later this morning. Satellite total PWAT continues
to indicate drier air moving into the area from the northeast. Rain-
free conditions will prevail across deep south Texas through
Wednesday. Light east winds today will become southeast tonight and
Wednesday as surface high pressure moves farther east. Patchy fog
will be possible again late tonight towards dawn on Wednesday due to
mostly clear skies and light southeast winds. Above normal
temperatures are expected through the short term. High temperatures
today and Wednesday will be in the 80s under a mix of sun and
clouds. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s inland to the
lower 70s along the coast.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): The excitement during
the long term portion of the forecast continues to be the Saturday
morning and afternoon passage of a cold front. Isolated
precipitation in association with the frontal passage and more
seasonal temperatures in the wake of the front are forecast. In
advance of the front, a persistent onshore flow will ensure well
above normal temperatures, with isolated showers Wednesday night
through Thursday.

MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Buoy 42045 (TGLO TABS Buoy K)
reported southeast winds around 12 knots gusting to around 15
knots at 130 CST/0730 UTC. Light east winds today will become
southeast tonight and Wednesday as surface high pressure moves
farther east. A long Gulf fetch will support seas offshore between
4 to 6 feet today. Small craft should exercise caution on the
Gulf waters 20 to 60 NM east of Padre Island today. Marine
conditions will improve late tonight and Wednesday as seas slowly
subside.

Wednesday Night through Monday: Small Craft Advisory winds and/or
seas continue to be anticipated along the Lower Texas Coast from
Saturday afternoon through early Sunday night due to the Saturday
afternoon passage of a cold front. In advance of this front,
generally moderate winds and seas are forecast for the Lower Texas
coastal waters.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term...60
Long Term...55
Graphicast/Upper Air...62



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