Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 190605 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
105 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Occasional MVFR cigs will noted through the overnight
hours as streamer clouds/showers move off of the Gulf. Otherwise,
conditions will be mostly VFR through the period, with high
pressure in control. Some seabreeze convection will be possible
again in the afternoon, however they will be hit and miss in
nature. The pressure gradient will begin to strengthen today with
gusty southeast winds expected during peak mixing.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR to MVFR conditions are still expected through the
overnight hours. The worst conditions may occur around sunrise at
BRO and HRL due to streamer showers, and at MFE due to the
formation of low stratus. Full VFR will return tomorrow. Light to
moderate surface winds are expected through the full forecast

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night):Persistent forecast
for the next 36 hours with little variation seen in the synoptic
pattern. Modest low level moisture will continue to be trapped
underneath a broad mid level ridge extending across Texas and the
Gulf of Mexico. The sufficient moisture and persistent southeast
surface wind to maintain diurnal isolated showers and possible
thunderstorms. Time heights continue to indicate a subtle elevated
warm layer or subsidence layer between 700-500mb which will be
enough to keep the sea breeze and streamer showers at bay with the
going forecast keeping most of the low probabilities of convection
along east of I69C/281. The mid level ridge will continue to
provide warmer then normal temperatures and couple with elevated
dew points, heat indices are likely to be well above normal. Not
anticipating heat advisory criteria but 105-110 will be widespread

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday):Models are in fair agreement
with the overall with the mid level pattern through the long term.
the beginning of the long term the mid level pattern looks to have
a broad trough over the Northwest quarter of the conus with a
high pressure over Texas and the Gulf with a hurricane and
tropical storm east of the eastern seaboard. The synoptic pattern
than transitions into a highly amplified flow with a deep trough
over the west and a blocking high over the Midwest with a weak mid
level low over the Western Gulf. Placement of the mid level low
to determine our rain chances later in the week. GFS is the
farther west but keep rain chances low while the ECMWF centers the
low over the northcentral Gulf coast but shows higher moisture
across the region. model guidance is near average on pops and
remaining above average on temperatures. Forecast is bit below
average on pops but keep temperatures above normal.

MARINE: tonight through Saturday...Weak broad high pressure over
the Gulf to interact with modest low pressure across West Texas
the Southern Plains through the week. Light to moderate southeast
winds and low seas to persist through the period. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are expected each day.




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