Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231812 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
112 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NUEVO LEON AND
TAMAULIPAS. BROWNSVILLE RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME ONGOING ACTIVITY
SOUTH OF THE GRANDE VALLEY RIVER SOUTH OF STARR AND ZAPATA
COUNTIES. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA TODAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. IT WILL THUS BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
TAF SITES. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY
TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE MID AND UPPER VALLEYS NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE LATER TODAY. THUS...SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MCALLEN HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTING BY LOWERED CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE
LOW END VSBY RESTRICTIONS. ALL TAF SITES ARE PROGGED TO SEE IFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...A WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS...A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 80S. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE WEST OVER THE
MEXICAN PLAINS LATER TODAY...DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER
VALLEY.

THE TREND OF INCREASING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE HEADS THIS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AFTER
HAVING STARTED OVER BAJA. UPPER VALLEY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 PERCENT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER
FOR THE UPPER VALLEY NEAR THE RIVER SINCE POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE STRONG INROADS IN THAT AREA.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...RANGING FROM THE 30S OUT WEST TO AROUND 60 PERCENT
NEAR THE COAST AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHD. GENERAL TSTMS
WILL BE FCST...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LTG...SMALL HAIL
AND SOME SMALL SCALE FLOODING POTENTIAL IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING
OCCURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE COMPLETION OF THE PASSAGE OF A 500 MB TROUGH THROUGH
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH A ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. WITH THE LARGELY DRY WEATHER
AND A PERSISTENT BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW ALSO ANTICIPATED...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT EAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL
VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL NOT OCCUR.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND. THE FORECAST TREND WILL
BE FOR MARINE CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE ADVERSE OVER TIME...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND
BETWEEN 0 AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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