Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 190901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
401 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): The H5 ridge is finally shifting
to the east today, opening the door for a cold front to zip through
Deep South Texas. But there will be one more day of hot
temperatures today. Atmospheric moisture remains limited to near
the surface, so models are still pessimistic on rainfall chances
during the day today. With a weak vort moving inland further up
the coast today, it`s not out of the questions that a shower or
two may briefly drop just enough rain to wet the pavement, but
don`t expect a large amount of rainfall anywhere. A few more
clouds and the departing of the strongest compressional heating
will bring daytime highs down a couple degrees from previous days

Then comes the frontal arrival. Models note that, while the winds
will shift during the day Thursday, the main front will not arrive
until Thursday evening. But there will be enough deeper moisture
returning at higher levels of the atmosphere to spark showers and
thunderstorms along the seabreeze during the day Thursday, ahead of
the front. Have kept the rain chances going for the coastal regions
during the day, with some higher rain chances in the northern
ranchlands later in the afternoon as the front encroaches on the
northern counties. More moisture and rain chances will knock another
3 to 5 degrees off high temperatures, with Highs generally right
around 90.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): Moisture aloft will
remain high across portions of south Texas Thurs night and
elevated convection will continue to develop across the CWA Thurs
night before drier and slightly cooler air filters into the area
Friday as surface high pressure builds into the state. Rain
chances will diminish FRi morning and subsidence will continue to
increase across deep south TX Fri afternoon. 500mb ridge across TX
Saturday is expected to move eastward Sunday as a weak shortwave
trough moves across northern Mexico Sunday into southwest TX
Monday. Moisture is also progged to return across northeast Mexico
into south TX the rest of the weekend into early next week. This
will provide a slight chance of showers across the CWA through the
rest of the forecast period. &&

.MARINE (Now through Thursday): Southeast flow starts the day
today as the surface ridge continues to be the main culprit.
Gradient decreases somewhat today as the front approaches, but
will still remain around 10 knots through the day. Seas will run 2
to 3 feet today, with lighter seas closer to shore. Winds will
shift to the northeast by noon Thursday, but the stronger winds
will not arrive until around sunset, so seas will remain modest
around 2 feet during the afternoon. Increased moisture will allow
for more widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop during
the day Thursday. Mariners should be aware of rapidly changing
conditions around any showers.

Thursday night through Sunday...Winds will continue to increase
across the coastal waters Thurs night into Friday as the pressure
gradient increases across the lower Texas coast as surface high
pressure builds into the state. Small craft advisories will be
needed for the coastal waters Thurs night into Friday before the
pressure gradient begins to weaken Fri night. Moderate to strong
northeast winds Fri night should become light to moderate Saturday
as the surface ridge moves eastward across the southeast United
States. Winds will veer to the southeast Sunday as the surface
ridge across the southeast U.S. continues to move eastward and the
pressure gradient remains weak across the western Gulf of Mexico.

BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  75  86  69 /   0  20  40  50
BROWNSVILLE          93  75  89  71 /   0  20  40  50
HARLINGEN            94  73  90  68 /   0  10  40  50
MCALLEN              98  76  93  70 /  10  10  50  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  73  89  67 /   0   0  40  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  80  83  78 /   0  20  40  50



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