Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 181126 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
626 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 OT
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SOME GUSTIER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIVES DOWN THE
ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST...MERGING WITH EXPANDING RIDGE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE GULF. A
TROUGH AT H2 CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN ABOVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.

TODAY...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED...SO NO RAN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL AGAIN REACH 105 TO 109...BUT WILL NOT REACH HIGHER
NUMBERS AS DRY SFC AIR COVERS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

TUESDAY...THE H2 LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD...PULLING GULF MOISTURE TOWARD
THE VALLEY. PW VALUES STILL ONLY REACH 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL REGIONS. THE SEABREEZE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS WINDS REMAIN
TOO HIGH FOR THE SEABREEZE TO FOCUS. HIGHS AGAIN REACH 100 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IF THERE ARE ANY BEST
DAYS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAYS BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DROUGHT DENTING RAINFALL.

WILL BE MONITORING A PAIR OF 25H LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES THE NEXT
3 TO 7 DAYS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE TROPICS WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE FIRST UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR TAMPICO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. A SUBTLE
INCREASE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THE CONTINUING FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIMITING THE
SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. LINGERING BUT DECREASING MOISTURE CONTENT
BUT LIGHTER WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS THURSDAY BUT NOTHING MORE THEN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE DAY TO DAY
VARIANCES AND LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CONDUCTED.

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO BE IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES AND UPPER LOWS ON
FRIDAY RETURNING TO RAINFREE AND CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND A DEGREE OR TWO WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ AND
TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE IN TANDEM NEXT WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS THE TWO
ELEMENTS ARRIVE SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH BROADER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. GOING FORECAST PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT DO NOT THINK EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN AT LEAST RIGHT
NOW. ONE SHOULD NOTE CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE END OF AUGUST
BEGINS OUR EVENTUAL INCREASE OF DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES AS TROPICAL
WAVES BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND TRACKING EVER MORE SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT JUST YET
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES STILL LOW AND UNCERTAIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PERSISTENTLY HOT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TODAY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
KEEPS THE GRADIENT ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS HAVE REACHED 4 FEET AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. &&

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THIS TIME YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MAINTAINING MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. THE RIDGE
BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO
SLOWER THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT NIGHT HOURS.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY BREEZES OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL AGAIN CROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL
FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THE SAME AREAS AT THE SAME
TIME...SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT ELEVATE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND QUICKLY DRY FUELS THIS WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
FULLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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