Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 091127
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRAPED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING AND SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. MAINLY THIN
CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGHLY AMPLIFIES RIDGE WILL
VIRTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A CUTOFF LOW WAS NOTED ON
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WAS
AIDING IN AN INCREASE OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THE AREA. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD SO THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS HOUR AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
KEEPING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 12-16%
RANGE WEST OF I 69E AND 16-30% EAST OF I 69E TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HEADING
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...THE LONG TERM
REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STUCK BETWEEN THE COLD
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST AND THE WARM RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE NORMAL PREVAILING SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WAS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY/SUNDAY IS NOW INDICATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
TO STEADILY CLIMB WITH TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES RANGING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST REMAINS DRY
WITH 00Z POP GUIDANCE SHOWING THE LOWEST NUMBERS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS
AROUND 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CST/08 UTC. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
ONSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO
STRENGTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS BECOME BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS LOWER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE WEAKENING AND RETREATING
WESTWARD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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