Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 290911
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PERHAPS ONE MORE "QUIET" DAY TODAY BEFORE PCPN CHCS NUDGE UP A BIT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THU/FRI. PWS CONTINUING TO
HOVER AROUND 2" ACROSS SE TX TODAY...WITH THE WV IMAGERY SHOWING A
STEADY FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. SO THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
ISO SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTN. CANNOT RULE OUT MAX TEMPS NEAR 100F
FOR TODAY EITHER.

WE SHOULD GET A SLIGHT RESPITE TOMORROW/FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY (AIDED BY THE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN U.S.). THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF PWS AOA 2" AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT (20-30%). HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERN
WITH LINGERING SUBSIDENCE (FOR PCPN TO FIGHT THROUGH). AND SO WILL
BE KEEPING THINGS STATUS QUO FOR NOW. DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND TO HELP RAISE TEMPS BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICIES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS WILL
BE KEEPING CLOSE TABS ON THIS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF THEN MOVE A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS LA AND E TX TOWARD THE COAST LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
EITHER EVENT...BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS...AND ON SATURDAY
OVER THE GULF WATERS. BOTH MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  20  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  78  99  78  99 /  10  10  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  82  92  82  92 /  10  10  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99



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