Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHGX 050446
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1146 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015


.AVIATION...
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE BPT AREA AND GOES PW CLEARLY SHOWS A
PLUME OF 1.4-1.6" PW WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN POISED JUST TO THE
EAST OF LCH AT 00Z SOUNDING LAUNCH. BUT EVEN SO THE LCH SOUNDING
SHOWING SIGNS OF MOISTENING UP. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 07 AND 12Z FROM EAST TO WEST AND
NEARLY STALL BY 15Z FROM BYY TO NEAR CLL. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS
DOTTING THE REGION BY 12Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. TIMING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OUT OF
MEXICO SEEMS TO HIGHLIGHT THE 16-22Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WED/02-06Z ACROSS THE
REGION. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

45

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY COMING UP AND AS SWELLS ARRIVE THIS
AFTERNOON THINKING WE WILL PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR THE 20-60NM
WATERS BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE. FOR NOW HAVE JUST CONTINUED THE
SCEC.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SWRN TX. THEREFORE...WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRONOUNCED ACROSS SERN TX.
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF/ERN TX. HOWEVER EXPECT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIESCENT FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT...
BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MANY
AREAS TOMORROW.

48

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A LOW TO THE WEST OF BIG BEND SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE ESE-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT. LARGE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MARCH WEST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN
TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT WILL BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
BY 10-12Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AS WELL AS
BL SHRINKS. AS THE EAST SIDE OF CIRCULATION REACHES THE HOUSTON
AREA IT SHOULD STRETCH OUT NORTH TO SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD LEAD
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING THE
TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST. FOR THE HOUSTON HUBS EXPECT THE MAIN
IMPACTS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 16-23Z. S/W MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST IN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
TIME PERIOD AS WELL. SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH
CLL-UTS HAVING THE LATEST SHOT AT STORMS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  81  68  84  70 /  20  60  30  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  81  69  85  70 /  30  50  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  79  73  81  74 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...45


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.