Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 132333
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECITON...

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 12-18HRS WILL BE MVFR CIGS. VIS SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME SLIGHT BREAKS SO COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR BUT
THEN THINK MVFR CIGS RE-DEVELOP AS AIRMASS COOLS OVERNIGHT WITH
STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS
THROUGH ABOUT 15-18Z TOMORROW AND THEN SHOULD SEE BKN CEILINGS
ABOVE 3000FT. WINDS WILL BE NNE SLOWLY TURNING TO ENE NEXT 24HRS
WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM WINDS TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCLL
ONLY REACHING 67 DEGREES AS OF 230 PM. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT
THESE COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF
OF THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS HANGING IN TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO MUCH. STILL
THOUGH... MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ALLOWING THE WARM UP TO
COMMENCE. THE DISTURBANCE WEST OF FLORIDA HAS CONTINUED TO LOOK
LESS AND LESS DEFINED TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL
MOVE TO THE WEST AND BRING HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2.00" MONDAY AND STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA IS FORECASTED TO BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STARTING WEDNESDAY. NOT SUPRISINGLY MODELS
SUGGEST A WET UPCOMING FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT... AND INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE ADVERTISING LIKELY POPS. POPS MIGHT HAVE TO BE
RAISED ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING LOWER PWAT AIR INTO
THE REGION AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURE VALUES. 23

MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY EAST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO WEAK LOW PRESSURE EDGES WESTWARD TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  86  71  92  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  87  73  91  75 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  86  80  90  80 /  10  10  20  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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