Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 290939
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL MORNING ANTICIPATED. AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PW`S 2-2.2") SITUATED IN THE SW GULF WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY UP THE COAST AND INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE`S PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEING INITIATED ALONG
DRYLINE IN CNTL TEXAS AND MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO SE TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY & SHEAR BY THAT TIME FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO BE A
THREAT (HAIL, WIND, ISO TORNADOES ALL A POSSIBILITY). FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS.
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO GENERALLY
BE NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 59.

THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
THIS IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE
LINE/COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE. WORST CASE SCENARIO...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...IS FOR THE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
LINE OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE BEHIND AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT`LL
BECOME SITUATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVEMENT
COULD SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE INFLOW
FEEDING PERPENDICULAR TO SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT FF THREAT WHEREVER SUCH A BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE A WORST CASE SITUATION. ANYTHING IN BETWEEN
IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY TIMES THESE EVENTS PLAY OUT ON
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION ISN`T VERY HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. BOTTOM LINE IS GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS. EVEN 35-50 MPH WINDS WILL BE A RISK OF DOWNING
TREES. STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
QUICK RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE A FF THREAT. WILL LEAVE FF WATCH AS/IS.

REST OF SATURDAY & SUNDAY:
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED & WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT EVOLVES TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PUSHING INTO SE TX LATE SATURDAY. SUSPECT EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK
IN THE ACTION DURING THE DAY IT`LL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCT PRECIP TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT & SUNDAY.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY MORNING:
ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WESTERN TROF. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY AND PROBABLY SERVE AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE
UNNEEDED HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY:
THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD. 47

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS SET TO INCREASE
BY TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EAST AND HELPS TO DRAW DIS-
TURBANCES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. HAVE KEPT CAUTION FLAGS POS-
TED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS/SEAS COULD BE FURTHER ELEVATED IN/NEAR SCT STORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

HAVE ALSO HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE. ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING AREAS IN
THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87
AND 124 CONNECTION NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WAA HAS PRODUCED SOME WIDELY SCT -DZ/-RA OVER SE TX OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT SOME THRU
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS AS THE DEEP ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST.
WE COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH VCSH...BUT INCREAS-
ED PCPN CHCS TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LOWER CIGS. TIMING OF THE STORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE SO WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH VCTS WORDING
FOR NOW. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  83  69  83 /  70  80  60  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  73  82  70  84 /  50  70  70  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  76  80  74  80 /  30  50  60  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
     GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99



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