Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 280556
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1156 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Southeasterly flow continues the moistening across the area and
widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS lower CIGS mainly IAH southward but these
will likely expand northward through the night. Light fog will be
possible through the night across the area but with winds staying
up at 6-10kts the fog should be light. Drier air aloft should mix
down in the morning and expect rises on cloud bases with MVFR
becoming the main impact through 14-18z timeframe. Some patches of
MVFR CIGS may persist into the afternoon hours though VFR
conditions should dominate 18-00z. Winds becoming gusty mid
morning especially across the west. Overnight Tuesday expect CIGS
to again return to MVFR and can`t rule out IFR conditions. Will
add VCSH in the out period for IAH 09z-12z/01 as front moves into
the region and cap erodes. 45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Should be a quiet rest of the night for SE TX. Despite the strong
cap in place...would not be too surprised with the development of
some isolated WAA showers along the coast through sunrise. Patchy
fog will also be possible across the bays/nearshore waters. Not a
lot of changes (if any) planned at this time. 41

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 352 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

A warm and muggy afternoon...above normal warmth with a slight
chance for a passing shower. This short forecast synopsis applies
to today and tomorrow. A cold frontal passage Wednesday morning
during the daylight hours will increase moderate chance...low QPF
showers with the occasional isolated thunderstorm. Models are not
overly aggressive with downstream convection per a developing
stout mid-level inversion brought on by enhanced southwesterly
flow advecting in upper teen 85H south central TX temperatures.
Mid week backing high pressure will tighten the offshore pressure
gradient and hoist maritime advisory flags late Wednesday into
early Thursday per post-frontal strong northerlies. Wednesday
afternoon will be breezy with clearing skies...a respite from
these recently warm days to end this warmest February on record.
March will commence on a cooler (post-frontal) note...70s
Wednesday afternoon with temperatures falling into the 40s
Thursday morning. A mostly sunny and significantly drier Thursday
will make this the best day of the work week (if you enjoy clear
skies and lower humidity). Plenty of sun Thursday as temperatures
warm into the comfortable average upper 60s...regional relative
humidities will fall into the 20 percentile range.

High pressure moving into the Ohio River Valley will have our
winds veering around to onshore by mid to late Friday. Increasing
west to southwest cloud cover as coastal Texas pressures lower
downstream of an upper low hanging back off Baja. The development
and eventual positioning of a coastal trough going into Saturday
will determine the first weekend of March`s rain probabilities...
amounts and location. The only consistent marker is that subsequent
model runs have shown that there will be the existence of a (near)
coastal trough and...with a weak cold front slated to be in the
vicinity (within 1.6 pwat/near 99th percentile air mass) Monday or
Tuesday...long range likely rain chances are warranted. Overcast
and unsettled weather on Days 5 through 8 with subsequent warming
from the 40s/60s Friday to the 60s/80s? next Monday. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      67  85  63  71  44 /  10  30  30  20  10
Houston (IAH)              69  84  70  77  48 /  10  20  20  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            68  75  69  75  55 /  10  10  10  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45



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