Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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318
FXUS64 KHGX 291739
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Bulk of today`s shower and storm coverage likely to be offshore
this afternoon. Still, with a couple cells beginning to pop up
upstream of the TAF sites from IAH to the coast, it looks like
short range guidance is on track for spotty development around the
southern sites. Kept VCSH in the TAF given the expectation that
today should be more anemic than yesterday, but can`t totally rule
out some lightning this afternoon. Also, many sites currently have
light east or variable winds, but flow just above the surface may
mix down this afternoon and result in a little bit better
established easterly winds. Finally, may see a sort of repeat of
this morning tomorrow morning with lingering moisture and ridge
that is only beginning to build into the area. So introduced
tentative mvfr vis/cigs at the sites that saw so this morning. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity should remain
offshore today, however another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will likely move through SE Texas from
the northeast during the afternoon. Updated the high temperature
forecast to reflect slightly cooler guidance and 12Z soundings
from Lake Charles and Corpus Christi. Heat index values will
remain in the low to mid 100s this afternoon.  11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
Expecting to see less SHRA/TSRA coverage today (best chances closer
to the coast and offshore) as some drier air filters into the area.
Kept VCSH in from IAH southward, and will adjust to mention TS if
needed. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will dissipate
early this morning. We might have a few isolated spots with MVFR/IFR
concerns again early tomorrow morning.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...

Scattered shra/tsra are located well offshore early this morning where
an outflow boundary and deep moisture are present. Will likely see
a few shra/tsra develop closer to the coast later this morning.
With heating today expect scattered activity to develop across the
SE half of the area. However...precip coverage will be
considerably less as compared to yesterday as the 2+ inch
precipitable water values are south of the area and in the NW
Gulf. Will continue to see the atmosphere dry on Thursday. On
Friday will see moisture levels creep up across the SE 1/3rd of
the area which likely lead to sct mainly afternoon convection.

This weekend the mid/upper level ridge will be positioned overhead
and we should see little chc of rain and slightly warmer
temperatures. Heat indices will also be on the rise over the
holiday weekend. Early next week our weather is likely to
continue to be dominated by a broad mid/upper ridge across the
southern U.S. However, there are some weaknesses in the ridge
that could result in some day to day variability in rain chcs. 33

MARINE...
Through the end of the week, mainly light and variable winds and
low seas will persist.  There will be lingering chances for showers
and thunderstorms (and associated higher winds and seas) with a
focusing boundary in the area.  An onshore slow is expected to return
to the area on Thursday and Thursday night but will not begin to
strengthen until Friday night or Saturday when low pressure over West
Texas begins to deepen.  Moderate south winds and slightly elevated
seas will persist through the holiday weekend, and caution flags might
be needed.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      94  75  94  75  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            90  79  91  80  91 /  30  20  20  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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