Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271657
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1057 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION NEAR 2500 FEET FRI MORNING WITH SOME
MARGINAL MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING FRI AFTN. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
TODAY LOOKS LIKE A GORGEOUS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED AND NO UPDATE IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING! 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL/DRY AIR CONTINUING TO SETTLE OVER SE TX
TODAY. THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK (INTO THE WEEKEND) TO RE-
MAIN QUIET EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN/MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST WITH TIME.

STILL KEEPING WITH THE START OF LOW RAIN CHANCES ON SUN AS MODELS
ARE KEEPING WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT THAT TIME. STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH MOISTURE RETURN BUT CANNOT ARGUE AGAINST THE
VERY LOW POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT (AOA LATE
MON/EARLY TUES) THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING OVER APPEARS TO BE
BACK ON. HOWEVER AFTER THIS...THE EXTENDED PROGS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
REGARDING TRACK OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROF. ECMWF GOING WITH A BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVENESS DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAN THE GFS BUT WILL
LIKELY LEAN MORE ON THE GFS AT THIS TIME (BASED ON RECENT TRENDS).
AS SUCH THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO CONTINUED LOW POPS THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS INCREASINGLY SW UPPER FLOW DRAWS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. 41

HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL!

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC FOR
ALL OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN AS GRADIENT
RELAXES INLAND STRONGER WINDS SHOULD SHIFT OUT INTO THE FAR COASTAL
WATERS AND DOWN THE COAST. SCEC CONDITIONS SHOULD END BY EVENING IN
THE SW WATERS. EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND BY FRIDAY
NIGHT SE WINDS RAMP UP AND EXPECT SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  41  69  56  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  41  70  57  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  52  68  62  72 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$


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