Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 201728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Based on latest trends, main change with the update is to add the
mention of thunder to the activity offshore. These storms are mov-
ing east at a pretty good clip and likely associated with a short
wave aloft. The bulk of this development will remain offshore for
the afternoon/evening. The rest of the forecast looks good and no
other changes planned at this time. 41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24-30
hours with periods of broken to overcast clouds between
FL150-FL250 today. Light and variable winds this morning inland
will gradually become east to southeast midday and increase 5-8
knots (remaining around 8-10 knots along the coast) as surface
high pressure along the Gulf coast slides east. Winds are expected
to become light and variable again overnight. Depending on the
amount of moisture return as winds veer onshore, lower clouds
around FL020-FL025 will be possible at all terminals with patchy
fog at CLL, CXO, and LBX tonight through the end of the TAF
period. Due to low confidence in how quickly this moisture will
return, have not included any MVFR category restrictions with the
12Z package.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/


Considerable high cloudiness is moving west to east across the
area tonight, yielding partly cloudy skies. Currently too dry for
any precip across the area with a series of upper level short
waves moving across. The exception could be offshore later today
where we could see a few very light showers developing from mid-
level cloud cover. Max temps today will be similar to yesterday
with mid-upper 60s expected for most areas, possibly reaching the
lower 70s across SW areas.

Will see some low-level moisture return begin this afternoon as
winds become southeast. This additional moisture with near calm
winds could lead to some patchy fog across SW/W areas late Mon
night/early Tues. On Tues, expect temps to warm into the mid 70s
with scattered showers developing offshore and near the coast as a
mid/upper level trough amplifies over the area. A significant
upper level jet streak will be diving southeast into the area on Tue
aft/eve from the NW, and lift from this feature could produce
isolated TSTMS Tues aft/eve across southeast areas and offshore.
Models are in good agreement that our next cold front will move
across Tuesday night into Wed morning. The chance of precip across
the area should end on Wed morning with the front offshore.

Expect dry and cool conditions for Thanksgiving behind the front.
A warmup will begin on Friday as a strong mid/upper ridge builds
to our W/SW. It appears that max temps will likely be close to 80
inland on Saturday ahead of a weak cool front that will move
through Sat night/Sun morning. It does not look like we will see
any precipitation with next weekend`s weak front.


Light northeast winds over the coastal waters this morning will
gradually become easterly today and southeasterly tonight as surface
high pressure stretching from Texas towards the Ohio Valley slides
towards the east. Southeast to south winds will continue Tuesday
ahead of a cold front moving off the coast on early Wednesday
morning with moderate offshore flow in its wake likely warranting
caution or advisory flags. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the coastal waters ahead of the front on Tuesday,
shifting south as the front clears the waters on Wednesday. Expect
wave heights in the 1-3 feet range ahead of the front, building into
the 4-7 feet range behind the front. Improving conditions are
expected by Thursday with light onshore flow resuming by Friday.



College Station (CLL)      67  50  74  51  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              68  53  75  55  68 /  10  10  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            67  61  74  59  69 /  10  10  30  30  10




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