Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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552
FXUS64 KHGX 212032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous slow moving showers and thunderstorms continue
across Southeast Texas this afternoon as a disturbance moves eastward
across the area. The slow moving activity and precipitable water values
above 2 inches have brought locally heavy rainfall to the area resulting
in several advisories/warnings. At one point, a Harris County Flood
Warning System rain gage (Cypress Creek at Huffmeister) had rainfall
rates of 0.48 inches in 5 minutes and 0.80 inches in 10 minutes. Expect
decreasing coverage/intensity late this afternoon through early this
evening. The area remains on the southern fringes of ridging both at
the surface and aloft, and enough heating should allow for some mainly
daytime shower and thunderstorm development over the next several days.
But compared to today, expect to see much less coverage for the end
of the week and over the weekend with lower precipitable water values.
Still looking at an eventual increase in rain chances next week as
mid/upper level ridging edges eastward and a western U.S. trough gradually
works its way toward the east. Will be carrying higher rain chances
as we head on into the middle to end of the week when the trough and
associated slow moving cold front begin to work their way toward our
area. Will need to keep a close eye on model trends over the next several
days as some have precipitable water values approaching a very high
2.50 inches under the persistent onshore flow ahead of the slow moving
boundary. This potential heavy rain event is still many days away,
and a lot can change with the models. Obviously, our area does not
need to see another significant rainfall event as the Harvey recovery
continues.  42
&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate southeast winds and seas around 3 feet are
forecast to persist along the Upper Texas Coast through at least the
next week. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
each day through the forecast period, with the greatest chances during
the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      73  91  72  92  72 /  30  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              73  91  72  90  73 /  30  20  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            80  89  78  89  80 /  30  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

11/42



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