Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 211632
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1032 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS ACROSS SE TX ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TEXAS
TECH WRF NEAR SURFACE RH...THINK THIS CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE...ALBEIT GRADUALLY. GUIDANCE STILL TRENDING HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S AND HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MAX TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT
IN PLACE. ONLY MINOR EDITS TO DEWPOINTS...SKYCOVER..AND
TEMPERATURES WERE MADE. 13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MVFR DECKS HAVE STUBBORNLY HUNG IN THROUGH THIS PACKAGE...CLEARING
LINE REMAINING EAST OF THE REGION. AS TEMPERATURES FALL WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THEIR RESPECTIVE DEW POINTS...EXPECT PERIODS OF
PRE-SUNRISE MVFR CAT FOG DEVELOPMENT. VEERING WINDS FROM EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR AND AID IN LIFTING MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS...
SUBTLE BUT ENOUGH TO CLOSE THE T/TD GAP AND INCREASE THE PROBABILITY
OF RETURNING MVFR DECKS AND PATCHY FOG COMMENCING DURING LATE THIS
EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING`S PUSH. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME SUNSHINE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS (WINTER OFFICIALLY BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AT 503 PM
CST). WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...BUT THEY WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A STRONG
COLD FONT AND POSSIBLE RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH HIGHS FOR THE DAY
LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND SOUTH. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TOO
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 10 TO 20 MPH SPEEDS INLAND AND 15 TO 25 MPH
COAST. WENT A LITTLE COLDER WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING (MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 40S COAST)...AND
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL CHRISTMAS EVE. AFTER A COLD START...CHRISTMAS
DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK COOL (IT WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE ON SATURDAY AND QUIETER ON SUNDAY).  42

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NESTLED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL HAVE THE ONGOING NORTHEAST WIND
PATTERN VEERING MORE ONSHORE BY EARLY MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER MORE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL AGGRESSIVELY TRAVEL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLIES TO NEAR GALE FORCE SUSTAINED...
GALE IN GUST...THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT LEAST ALL WATER
ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE SHORT FUSE GULF GALE WARNINGS DURING THIS
PERIOD. WINDS TURN ONSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S..THE NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO CARRY QUITE THE PUNCH...STRENGTHENING
OFFSHORE WINDS TO SCA CRITERIA UPON ITS PASSAGE SATURDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  51  70  52  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  51  72  58  62 /   0  10  10  20  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  56  69  61  64 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13



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