Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281701
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1201 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN/EVNG. COULD SEE SOME WEAK STREAMER
SHRA ACROSS SE PARTS OF SE TX BUT OVERALL DURATION/SIGNIFICANCE
ISN`T WORTH INCLUDING IN TAFS ATTM. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING INTO SE TX OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDSHIFT PROBABLY SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS LOWERING
INTO MID-HIGHER END MVFR TERRITORY LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.
WILL INCLUDE SOME TEMPOS FOR NOW. IT`S BEYOND TIMELINE INCLUDED IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE BUT 00Z TAFS MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIP SOUTH OF I-10 LATE IN THE DAY AND EVNG AS CONVERGENCE
ZONE SETS UP BETWEEN SEABREEZE & FRONT. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. AT 10 AM THE
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PARIS TO FORT WORTH TO JUNCTION. THIS
POSITION WAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO ITS 7 AM POSITION. THE 12Z AREA
SOUNDINGS SHOWED A FAIRLY LARGE CAP IN PLACE. THERE WAS A MOISTURE
CHANNEL OVER THE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF SAN LUIS PASS. CONTRIBUTING
TO THE CAP WAS A SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SE TX FROM
THE EAST. THERE WAS SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
MAY DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE NAM12 FORECASTS THE BEST JET STRUCTURE
AND LIFT TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  78  58  79 /  10  20  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  66  81  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  70  79  68  76 /  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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