Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 121102
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
602 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA TODAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT. LOWER VISIBILITIES SEEN AT THE
RURAL SITES THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE SUN RISES.
SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE
WEST WITH A WEAKNESS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAIN INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.9" AND K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S. THE GFS IS NOT
NEAR THIS AGGRESSIVE. EITHER WAY LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE SUNDAY. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF BIG BEND DRIFTING AWAY TO THE WEST AND
TROUGH TRAILING BACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE EAST
COAST. SETX UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND ONLY A FEW SPECKLES SHOWING UP RADAR OVER THE GULF
WATERS. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS 98-94 INLAND AND NEAR 90 ON THE
COAST. RICHER MOISTURE OVER LA COAST WILL BE SHIFTING EAST AND
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES WEST
INTO SETX SO HAVE RAISED POPS FOR SUNDAY BEGINNING OVER THE GULF
IN THE MORNING AND SHIFTING WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GREATER
COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH. K INDEX VALUES SOAR TO 30-38. NAM IS EVEN
MORE ASSERTIVE WITH THE MOISTURE POOL AND SWINGS IN PW OF 2-2.2"
BUT HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT WHERE THE MOISTURE ORIGINATES FROM....BUT
IF THESE RICHER VALUES COME TO PASS THEN POPS WILL PROBABLY NEED
TO BE MUCH HIGHER AND MAY HAVE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. UPPER SHEAR
AXIS FORMS AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA MONDAY BUT WITH LESS LIFT SO
POPS SHOULD BE LOWER FOR MONDAY. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY
BECOME A VERY ACTIVE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NETX
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SETX. STEERING FLOW SHOULD PUSH STORMS
OFF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INTO SETX. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS (RANGES FROM COAST TO JUST
NORTH OF CROCKETT) BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HARD TO PICK
WHICH DAY THOUGH IS THE MOST ACTIVE SO FOR NOW WILL BE CARRYING
30-40 POPS NORTH TO 20 NEAR THE COAST.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 101-104 WILL BE GRADUALLY
INCREASING SUNDAY AND SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY AT 103 TO 108. MAY
FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RAINS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

45

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO RISE. SEAS AND WINDS COULD BE HIGHER IN
STRONGER STORMS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  74  97  75  99 /   0  10  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  76  95  76  97 /  10  20  30  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  80  90  81  90 /  10  30  30  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...23


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