Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 242010
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND AND
CLOSE TO 70 AT THE COAST. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...
EXPECTING ANOTHER SHOT OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80 DECREES. RAIN (SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS)
COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP NORTH
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA AND TOWARD THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL CLEAR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...STILL ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE RAINFALL TOTALS PEAKING AT A TENTH
OF AN INCH...POSSIBLY TWO. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A GRADUAL WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS AN ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. MOISTURE LEVELS AND
LIFT MIGHT INCREASE ENOUGH ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT SOME
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE COULD COME ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT VERY HIGH ON WHAT MIGHT EVENTUALLY HAPPEN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
42
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES AND
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY SEE SOME SEA FOG FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE FOCUSED IN THE
FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA BAY AREA. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH AND WITH
SHORTER TRAJECTORIES OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS MAY BE MORE OF A
LOW STRATUS FEATURE. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST NEAR NOON AROUND
MATAGORDA BAY THEN A FEW HOURS LATER FOR GALVESTON BAY AREA. WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP AND GET GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT. SCEC CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING IN THE BAYS
AND SCA CONDITIONS ON THE GULF WATERS AS WINDS MAY BE SUSTAINED AT
20-25 KNOTS WELL OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION AS FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE
GULF THE THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS INCREASES WITH CAPE OF 1000+J/KG
WITH SOME WEAK SHEAR/PW 1.5-1.6" BUT ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...SO WHEREVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CAP RESIDES FROM
THERE EASTWARD MAY HAVE AN ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT OVER THE WATER.
WINDS RELAX QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND OUT
OVER THE WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
SHALLOW CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND GULF IS CLEAR. EXPECT THE CU FIELD TO GRADUALLY LIFT
BUT STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND CU SHOULD DISSIPATE 22-01Z. OVERNIGHT
ST SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN AREAS AND EXPAND IFR INTO THE
AREA TERMINALS BY THE 06-09Z WINDOW. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP FIRST BEFORE STRATUS MOVES IN. STRONG INVERSION AND MORE
MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE ST DECK IN LONGER THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  81  60  66  47 /  10  10  40  40   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  81  62  71  51 /  10  10  20  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  76  65  71  56 /  10  10  20  50  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...45



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