Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 212346
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.AVIATION...
Cold front and associated SHRA/TSRA is moving across North Texas early
this evening, and expect this boundary to move into and through Southeast
Texas tomorrow morning up north through early tomorrow afternoon at
the coast. Should see some -RA/-SHRA move through our area with the
front. Winds will shift to the NW and N behind the front and become
gusty inland and gusty/windy at the coast. MVFR/IFR ceilings forming
tonight will be slow to lift/erode tomorrow with clearing not anticipated
to arrive until late in the afternoon up north and during the evening
and overnight hours for the rest of the area. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
At 2 PM, an area of low pressure was located southwest of Wichita
Falls with a cold front trailing to the west across the southern
panhandle. The low will move east tonight and the cold front will
begin to push across the state. Min temps tonight will remain on
the warm side as weak onshore winds and a bit of cloud cover late
help insulate the area. The front will approach the NW zones
around 12z. Hi Res ARW is a bit faster than other solutions and
leaned toward the faster solution due to the hefty pressure rises
behind the front. A pre frontal trough ahead of the front will
trigger a few showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm over the
north toward morning over the north. The lack of appreciable
moisture and jet dynamics precludes widespread shra/tsra and will
maintain the low end chance PoPs for now. Temps are tricky on
Saturday as the warm start over the southern half of the region
coupled with an influx of dry air will compete with cold air
advection. Areas along the coast will remain very warm as the warm
start to the day coupled with dry air and offshore winds will
keep KGLS in the lower/mid 80s.

Sunday and Monday look as close to perfect as you get this time of
year. Low humidity, cool overnight low temperatures with
mild day time high temps. No rain is expected Sunday or Monday.
Morning lows begin to warm on Tuesday morning as onshore winds
bring back low level moisture. 500 heights remain zonal through
Wednesday but 850 mb temps slowly warm through the week and would
expect daytime high temps to also warm. Overnight low temps look
to warm significantly Wed-Sat morning and it`ll feel more like
June as lows stay in the 70`s. Low temps should remain warm due to
abundant low level moisture and moderate surface winds that fail
to decouple. The warm start to each day coupled with warm 850
temps should allow day time highs to warm into the upper 80s with
a few spots flirting with 90 degrees by Friday. Cloud cover
should also increase Thu-Sat as winds aloft become southwest as
an upper level trough approaches the southern plains. Fcst
soundings showing some capping in place toward the end of next
week so will temper enthusiasm for rain chances next Fri/Sat. 43

MARINE...
10 to 15 knot southeasterlies over 2 to 3 foot seas through tonight.
The advance of an inland cold front will weaken veering winds
through the early Sunday hours. Winds will swing moderate
northwesterly by late tomorrow afternoon with the front`s primarily
dry passage. Strengthening northwesterlies to Advisory levels will
occur Saturday night and will persist through Sunday morning. This
strong early Sunday offshore flow will lift average sea heights to 5
to 7 feet nearshore...8 to 10 foot offshore. High pressure builds
down over the waters Monday with light onshore winds returning by
late evening. The onshore pressure gradient significantly tightens
through the remainder of the week and this will produce at least
Caution level winds and build longer period swell to over 5 feet by
mid-week. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      64  73  49  73  48 /  30  20   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              70  81  52  74  51 /  10  30  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            75  83  58  72  62 /  10  20  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42



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