Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 042348
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
WITH THE SFC HIGH ATOP THE REGION...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WILL BE
IN STORE FOR SE TX. THE RETURN OF SE WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT COULD
HELP PRODUCE SOME VERY SHALLOW PATCHY BR BY SAT MORNING. OTHER-
ISE VFR CONDITIONS TO ABOUND. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL EARLY FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA TODAY WILL EDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHICH WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO POSSIBLY BRING SOME RAIN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS GETTING ITS ACT
TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. MODELS HAVE
THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO
AND THRU SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE FRI NITE THRU SAT MORNING.  SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE LEVELS RISE...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE WE GET RESULTING IN A
BIT OF FORECASTER UNCERTAINTY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GET BACK IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS UNDER A WESTERN US
RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN THAT SENDS A SERIES OF QUIET COLD
FRONTS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  42

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING. THE BACKSIDE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MODERATE EASTERLIES
THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE WINDS LATER THAT DAY WHILE INTRODUCING SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES. SATURDAY PM CAUTION LEVEL NORTHERLIES WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND VEER NORTHEAST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE EARLY MONDAY. A SLOWER MOVING GREAT LAKE
LAKES REGION STORM SYSTEM...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
TUESDAY...WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR/CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL
TRANSITION TODAY`S NORTHERLIES TO EASTERLY FRIDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      32  58  37  59  35 /   0   0  20  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              33  59  39  62  38 /   0   0  20  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  58  47  61  46 /   0   0  20  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...41


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