Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 151702
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE GOING TO BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT IN THE GULF WILL BE EDGING
INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME A PLAYER IN OUR AREA TOO.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE OR REASONING TO THE ONGOING FCST. BASED ON RIG
OBSERVATIONS & SAT PIX IT APPEARS AXIS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE IN
THE GULF CURRENTLY EXTENDS GENERALLY FROM OFF THE SW LA COAST TO WELL
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BEGIN
TO SEE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE & SCT PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVE
LATER TODAY AS THE AXIS MAKES CONTINUED WWD PROGRESS. ONCE WE GET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND ON TUE AS LLVLS OF THE ATMOS OPEN BACK UP. CORRESPONDING
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER INLAND AS THIS OCCURS. IN ADDITION
TO GULF MOISTURE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PACIFIC CONTRIBUTIONS OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ODILE AS IT RIDES UP AND OVER
RIDGE IN CNTL MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER SE TX DURING THE TUE-THURS
TIME PERIOD. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES OF PRECIP...MUCH OF
IT PROBABLY WELCOME. HIGHER TOTALS THRU THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY ALONG
& SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS ELSEWHERE WITH CLUSTERING, ETC BUT DON`T
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A WIDESPREAD ISSUE. PW VALUES AROUND 2" APPEAR
TO LINGER THRU NEXT WEEKEND SO SEE NO REASON TO EXCLUDE CONTINUED
SCT PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. AS TO WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES: ECMWF SAYS AROUND SEPT 22...GFS LATER. 47

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAVE DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE LET THE SCEC EXPIRE. OTHERWISE WILL BE KEEPING WITH FCST OF
LIGHT E/NELY WINDS TODAY WITH THE DIRECTION BECOMING MORE E/SELY
TONIGHT/TUES. SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP SOME DURING THE WEEK BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR ANY CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS IS CURRENT THINKING. 41


AVIATION...
SPOTTY MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID/LATE MORN-
ING. OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE AFTN. AS DWPTS SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUES MORNING WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF (MOSTLY) MVFR VIS/CIGS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  89  75 /  10  40  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  89  75 /  20  50  30  50  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  86  80 /  30  60  50  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23



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