Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

For the 06Z TAFS looking at pretty much a repeat of the past 24
hours with mainly clear conditions...generally VFR conditions
through the TAF period. Would expect again only isolated shower
and thunderstorm development along the sea breeze front
tomorrow...not enough coverage to warrant mention in TAF forecasts
at this point. Winds will be generally light with usual diurnal
directional changes due to the sea breeze given favorable weak
gradient flow regime. 18



Evening forecast update...sea breeze convection has long
dissipated but a few cells coming into the area from the NE
persisted over Polk County later into the evening. Those cells
have dissipated over the last 30 minutes as day time heating
continues to be lost. Otherwise a weak pressure gradient will
allow for light/calm winds tonight with little cloud cover. Low
temperatures should drop into the upper 70s again for the morning.
Temperatures seem on track but made a few slight adjustments to
lower min temps in a few areas.

Upper level ridge should hold on a couple more days before
retrograding early next week. A weak inverted trough should move
over the area next Mon-Wed which should provide a more favorable
pattern for more wide spread diurnally driven convection. Rainfall
for the month of July so far has been hard to come by for some



Few showers and storms this afternoon have pretty much dissipated
over SE Texas...except for a few off to the east of the
terminals...over far E TX. Expect these others will likewise fade
over the next few hours with no impact at the airports. Should see
winds again die off but will little in the way of fog or
status...just like last night. Tomorrow should likewise play out
similar today with a few storms developing mainly along the sea
breeze...but with limited coverage chance small that will occur
right at the terminal and have left out of TAFS for now. 18


Seabreeze storms developing mainly east of the bay and a few near
Matagorda bay this afternoon. Convective temp closer to 94 today
and so expect a few to overcome capping and develop along the
remainder of the seabreeze this afternoon including into the
Houston Metro. Storms will be slow moving and capable of 1-2
inches of rainfall but spotty. Storms should dissipate quickly
between 530-630 pm with end of the heating.

Moisture continue to increase tomorrow and will probably see
showers developing over the coastal waters with a light wind
regime or a land breeze. After the seabreeze develop storms should
fire up and spread well inland during the afternoon. Followed by
another early end to the storms by 6 or 7 pm.

Transition day should be Sunday with PW climbing to 2.1-2.2" and
inverted upper trough sliding toward and through the area Monday.
This environment will be ripe for scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms and have bumped up pops to 40-60 and may even
need to go higher for Monday. Gusty winds Sunday also a minor
threat. During the day Monday storms will likely be very efficient
and can`t rule out the 3-4" hour rainfall rates.

Upper ridge will be retreating westward over the coming days
allowing the inverted trough in which should ease down the max
temps a little but min temps may creep upward with the increase in
moisture and cloud cover. Semi active pattern Tuesday through
Friday with easterly impulses and abundant moisture over the area.

We should be seeing a slight shift from the light easterly winds of
late to a southeasterly one tonight/tomorrow morning as the surface
high shifts further east. This light onshore flow is expected to re-
main in place the next several days. We could also see some increase
in showers/thunderstorms over the weekend into the first half of the
new week as disturbances move in from the east. 41


College Station (CLL)      77  98  77  97  77 /   0  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              77  97  79  96  78 /  10  30  10  40  20
Galveston (GLS)            82  92  82  91  81 /  20  20  20  30  30




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