Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 150430
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1130 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Muggy conditions ongoing this afternoon as temperatures reach into
the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to low
70s. Persistent southerly flow has allowed deep moisture to pool
into SE Texas, and pockets of stronger moisture convergence coupled
with a weak mid-level disturbance have helped kick off a few light
showers across the area this afternoon. Moisture will continue to
increase with PWAT values in he 1.7-1.9" range (well above 90th
percentile). Isolated showers will continue overnight tonight
becoming more widespread in coverage Friday morning.

Continuing to monitor the potential for severe weather for Friday.
SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather
for an area west of a line from Madisonville to El Campo. Elsewhere,
a Marginal Risk is in place (level 1 of 5) with the exception of the
immediate coast.

Digging a bit deeper into the setup and the parameters...A cold
front will approach SE Texas from the west during the overnight
hours, and will stall around the Brazos Valley area Friday morning.
This boundary along with a series of weak shortwaves aloft will help
provide lift to initiate shower and thunderstorms. Models differ
pretty significantly on how strong the capping inversion will be in
the morning, so may see primarily showers with a few storms in the
morning. Hi-Res models indicate a break in activity for much of the
area during the early afternoon hours before redeveloping in the
late afternoon hours.

If this scenario plays out with the break in activity, diurnal
heating will allow the atmosphere to destabilize and recover from
any storms that occurred earlier in the day. Breaks in clouds will
allow for further destabilization. Once the cap erodes, any storms
that initiate with the passing shortwave in the afternoon to evening
hours will have plenty of moisture and instability to work with.
CAPE values exceed 2000 J/kg across much of the area Friday
afternoon with effective bulk shear values approaching 50 kts. This
may allow for a few discrete cells to become more organized and
produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will continue overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the stalled boundary
coupled with the rich moisture will allow for locally heavy rainfall
and the potential for training storms. WPC has placed an area along
and west of a line from Victoria to Houston to Beaumont in a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Elsewhere, a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 4) is in place. Rainfall totals continue to
range from 1-2 inches with the highest totals further inland.
Isolated higher amounts will be possible.

With the threat of severe weather and heavy rains it is important to
stay up to date on the latest forecast and have multiple ways to
receive warnings.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A wet period continues through the weekend with multiple rain and
storm chances, followed by a dry start to the workweek.

Saturday and Sunday...The frontal passage mentioned in the short-
term discussion is progged to stall over our region during the day.
As the front meanders over SE TX; a parade of
disturbances/shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow aloft will
also move over the region. With increasing instability, deep
moisture and surface convergence, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms can be expected. There are still some disagreement
between models with the evolution of the front and upper level
troughs. Albeit confidence in periods of rain/storms is moderate to
high; confidence in total amounts and the location of highest
rainfall totals still remains low to moderate. Overall, kept the
best rain/storm chances generally north I-10 on Saturday as the
upper troughs move through. Then, the focus shifts along a
developing sfc trough over the region and along the front as it
moves toward the coast by Saturday night. Saturday night into
Sunday afternoon could potentially be the wettest period during
the weekend with rainfall totals generally from 1 to 2 inches.
Minor street flooding, ponding of water, especially in low-lying
areas or areas of poor drainage will be possible on Saturday. WPC
highlights this threat with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) and a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) in their Day 3 of Excessive Rainfall
Outlook. WPC also included a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
for Sunday as the front/trough finally moves offshore. The best
focus for precipitation will be for areas south of I-10.

Upcoming week....Sfc high pressure and ridging aloft will finally
push a drier airmass across the region late Sunday into early next
week. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected, at
least through midweek with highs mainly into the 60s and low 70s.
Unsettled conditions return after midweek ahead of an approaching
upper-level trough.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MVFR ceilings have pushed in to the majority of the area terminals
and these ceilings are expected to continue on a downward trend
through the night eventually becoming IFR. Some patchy fog has
already developed around the southern terminals are has brought a
slight decrease in visibility that`ll persist into Friday morning.
Expect ceilings to remain low as the first wave of rain moves in
around 09Z-11Z through 16Z-17Z. After this, ceilings should rise
to VFR into Friday afternoon. Additional convection is expected on
Friday afternoon around 21Z with some of these storms having the
potential to become strong to severe. Hail and damaging winds
would be the main hazards in any storm that manages to become
strong or severe. These storms are expected to fizzle out around
03Z on Friday night. As far as winds go, expect a downward trend
in wind speeds to continue through the night. Southerly winds
generally around or less than 10 knots persists into Friday
morning and then transitions to northeasterly/easterly as a
frontal boundary begins to slowly push in to Southeast Texas.
Expect another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings to push inland from the
south on Friday night.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas around 3 to 5 ft will
persist through at least Saturday. Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution conditions will be likely at times. A cold front will slowly
move across the coastal waters Friday night into Saturday, resulting
in isolated showers and thunderstorms. This boundary will stall over
Southeast TX, potentially developing a sfc low. This will result in
increasing scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms and
moderate easterly winds Saturday and Sunday. The best rain/storm
chances will be Saturday night into midday Sunday. The front will
finally move over the coast by Sunday, bringing drier conditions,
elevated northeast winds and seas. Advisories may be needed late
Sunday into Monday. Conditions will improve after Tuesday with light
onshore winds. Rain/storm chances return towards the end of the
upcoming week.

JM

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Here are the daily rainfall records (inches/year)for Friday (3/15),
Saturday (3/16) and Sunday (3/17).

  College Station  Houston  Houston Hobby  Galveston    Palacios

Fri: 2.81/1969   2.06/1974    1.66/1944    1.88/1896   5.15/1993
Sat: 1.84/1979   2.83/1896    2.28/1998    2.71/1944   2.65/1944
Sun: 1.48/1988   2.57/1957    5.00/1957    2.96/1957   1.83/1997

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  80  64  72 /  40  80  40  60
Houston (IAH)  71  82  66  76 /  20  70  40  60
Galveston (GLS)  68  73  65  72 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM


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