Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 261544
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
944 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING.
HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY AS AMDAR SOUNDINGS
FOR THE AREA SHOW 850 TEMPS AROUND 6 DEGREES C THIS MORNING. ALSO
MADE CHANGES TO DEWPOINT GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FOR THE SHORT/MID RANGE PART OF THE FCST AS
SE TX REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL/DRY AIR TONIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
THANKSGIVING FCST QUIET. AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST...ON-
SHORE WINDS SET TO RETURN FRI WHICH SHOULD BRING WITH IT WARMING
TEMPS/SLOWLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE (PERHAPS PARTIALLY CAUSED BY A CLOSED
LOW TRYING TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NRN MEXICO) OVER THE UP-
COMING WEEKEND WILL ALSO HELP TO SLOWLY INCREASE OUR POPS BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER HAVE TWEAKED POPS BACK A BIT FOR SUN
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FA LOCATIONS AS THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP LOW POPS
IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE PROGS OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND/OR COLD FRONTS. WHILE THESE LATEST EXTENDED MODEL
RUNS ARE STARTING TO LOSE SOME COHESION WITH THE WHY THEY REMAIN
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF POPS. 41

AVIATION...
 VFR. WINDS THE ONLY ISSUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES QUICKLY WITH
HEATING THIS MORNING AND MAY GET GUSTY BEFORE RELAXING AND BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING. WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH CLL-UTS
01-02Z AND IAH/HOU 03-05Z. WINDS QUICKLY BECOMING NORTHEAST
THANKSGIVING MORNING BUT TYPICALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
45

MARINE...
 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS AND MAY EVEN REACH THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS BY NOON. GRADIENT BEGIN TO RELAX LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE AGAIN AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES OUT OVER THE COAST. WINDS AGAIN MAY BRIEFLY
REACH SCEC. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES WELL IN THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  41  65  45  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  42  67  43  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  52  65  53  68 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23



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