Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 161131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
631 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOME LOW
CLOUDS (AROUND 4000 FEET) MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. POSSIBLE FOR SOME
MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...BUT THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY
TO HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULD START OUT MVFR.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...WE ARE SEEING A COLD APRIL MORNING WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS N/NE AREAS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXIST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS INLAND.
LIGHT EAST WINDS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS TODAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CIRRUS MOVE ACROSS SE TX THIS AFT AND SOME STRATO CU DEVELOP
LATE AFT/EVE NEAR THE COAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISING A SHRT WV TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THU/THU NIGHT AND WE MAY SEE A FEW SHWRS ACROSS THE SW 2/3 OF
THE AREA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT. WILL SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS ON FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHRT WV. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ON
SATURDAY WITH SE FLOW. A LONGWAVE MID/UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEST OF SE TX. IT APPEARS BY SATURDAY NIGHT N/NW AREAS WILL HAVE
A CHC OF SEEING SOME CONVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
WEAKENING UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS. THE ECMWF IS STILL DRIER ACROSS
SE TX DURING THIS PD WHEN COMPARED TO THE FASTER GFS. STILL THINK
IT IS BEST TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SOLNS WITH THE POP FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH ELEVATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CAUTION FLAGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  53  72  57  79 /   0  10  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  55  74  59  80 /   0  10  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  60  72  64  76 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5
     PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...42



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