Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 271543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1042 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

No significant updates this morning...a minor moisture tweak
to bring AM dew points up to better fall in-line with current
obs. Isolated early day offshore showers while inland...mostly sunny
morning with afternoon cumulus development. Swath of regionally
dry air should mix afternoon dew points/RHs into the upper 50s F
to low 60s F/mid 30 to lower 40 percentile...respectively. Texas
will be under the influence of this near 590 dam western upper
ridge going into the weekend. Above normal temperatures (at both
extremes) and patchy morning fog (locally dense) will be the main
themes in subsequent days. 31


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/


12Z Aviation...Patches of fog around the area should dissipate
between 13 and 14Z. Possible to see brief MVFR fog at IAH, but it
is mainly occurring at the rural sites. NE winds this morning will
become SE late this afternoon generally in the 5 to 8 kt range
later today. 33


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

Patchy fog to prevail across much of SE TX this morning with some areas
possibly seeing dense fog by sunrise. Cirrus blow-off (from overnight
storms over NTX) moving out and with calm winds and low (to no) T/Td
spreads, we could see this development of fog become more widespread.
No advisory at this time, but cannot rule it out a bit later this
morning. A similar scenario progged for tonight/ tomorrow morning.

Otherwise not a lot of major changes with the overall forecast as
models keep things quiet/warm/dry. The upper level ridge out west
will continue to build this way the next day or so...before flattening
out across the Southern Plains over the weekend. Light ESE winds
at the surface will drive the deeper Gulf moisture into the middle/lower
TX coast...along with some isolated/widely scattered SHRA. Persistence
will feature heavily with temperature forecasts with best (albeit
low) POPs remaining over the coastal waters and points over our far
southwestern CWFA. Still preferring the ECMWF in the extended
forecasts - which is still pushing across a well-defined upper
trof/low into the state from the west by next Tues/ Weds. Will
also have to begin keeping track (with trends) for the next cold
front, which is currently progged for next Fri. 41


High pressure over the eastern U.S. will maintain an onshore flow
through the middle of next week. A long easterly fetch will lead to
a gradual increase in swells Friday and Saturday. The swells may
exceed 5 feet at times and an SCEC may be required over the weekend
and into early next week. The persistent fetch will also lead to an
increase in tide levels beginning as early as Saturday with an
additional slow increase in tide levels early next week. 33


College Station (CLL)      85  64  85  64  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              85  62  85  62  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            81  71  82  71  82 /  10  10  10  10  10




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