Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 212207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
407 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE TX...TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STEADY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH ONLY A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER 60S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT BECAUSE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD COVER WILL FILL BACK IN. WITH A RETURN TO
ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THINK THE CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE TX. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH BOTH MODELS HAVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT THROUGH SE TX. STILL UNCERTAIN ON QPF COVERAGE...AS THE
BETTER JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEAR TO BE FARTHER
EAST. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WILL FALL THROUGH THE
40S AND ENDING UP IN THE 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE TRENDED ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE FACT
THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE 540 THICKNESS LINE MAKING IT
TO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY AT 12Z.

CLEAR...COLD...AND DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON THE
TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO
MODELS IN BRINGING IT THROUGH SE TX. 13

&&

.MARINE...

AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN SE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORN-
ING. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WX SYSTEM
DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS) WILL HELP TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
MON...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLAGS/ADVISORIES FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY TUES EVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT (TUES AFTN). GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  71  52  54  36 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              52  73  57  58  39 /  10  10  20  40  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  72  62  62  45 /  10  10  20  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
MARINE/AVIATION...41



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