Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 050325
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SE TX AND WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE
COAST BY 11 PM. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND CALDWELL IS ALREADY DOWN TO 37 DEGREES. LEANED TOWARD
THE RUC FOR HOURLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT SINCE IT IS THE ONLY MODEL
REMOTELY CLOSE TO CURRENT OBS. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT MODELS
ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH AND THAT COULD BE A REAL PROBLEM OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES BY MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH SE TX AROUND 09Z AND WILL GENERATE A
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF SE TX. HIGH POPS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE BUT BUMPED UP QPF TOWARD THE COAST AND RAISED POPS FOR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST. SINCE PRECIP WILL BE A BIT
HEAVIER AND LAST A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...HAVE MORE
CONCERN THAT WINTER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AM HESITENT TO MAKE BIG CHANGES AT THIS TIME BUT
RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP FREEZING LAYER
BETWEEN 500-3500 FEET WHICH APPEARS COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP
TO SLEET. WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS VERY CLOSELY AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WIND ADVISORY AND GALE WARNINGS LOOK ON TARGET SO NO
CHANGES PLANNED. NEW ZONES OUT BY 945 PM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH KCLL AND KUTS AT 2330Z.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH KCXO BY 01Z...THE METRO HOUSTON
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...KLBX BY 04Z...AND KGLS BY 05Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSET BY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DETERIORATE...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS WITH NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS QUICKLY DEVELOPING.
GUSTS MAY REACH TO NEAR 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE
OVER OR MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING AT KCLL AND
KUTS BETWEEN ABOUT 11Z AND 15Z. CONDITIONS LOOKED TOO WARM FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE RAIN SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...THE NAMBUFR WAS FORECASTING A RETURN TO VFR
FROM ABOUT KHOU AND KSGR NORTHWARD AFTER ABOUT 21Z.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS AT OUR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AT 3PM
THE TEMPERATURE IN COLLEGE STATION WAS 75 DEGREES WHILE IN HEARNE
THE TEMPERATURE WAS 57 DEGREES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
TIMING REMAINS ROUGHLY THE SAME WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE METRO AREA AROUND 7PM AND OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THINKING FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S THE GROUND WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES
ARE COOL ENOUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SLEET ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE
POSSIBLE. AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WOULD BE PARTS OF HOUSTON AND
TRINITY COUNTIES BETWEEN 7-10 AM...ALTHOUGH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BUT WITH PRECIPITATION CLEARING THE REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING AND
THE I-10 CORRIDOR SATURDAY SO SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD REMAIN
COVERED INTO THE WEEKEND.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIE ALONG THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 38

MARINE...
THE SEA FOG HAS RETURNED AND VTS AND PILOTS REPORTING SHUT OUT
CONDITIONS IN LOWER GALVESTON BAY AND ACROSS MATAGORDA BAY. THE
FOG SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES...CLOSE TO 10
PM MATAGORDA AND 11 PM FOR GALVESTON. GALE CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 25-35 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS 40-45
KNOTS. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 15 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WITH VERY ROUGH
CONDITIONS ON THE BAYS. LOW WATER ADVISORY WITH VERY STRONG
CURRENTS SQUEEZING OUT THURSDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER BAY. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD LESSEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BAYS AND NEARSHORE
FIRST. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE GALE WARNING FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      33  37  27  47  32 /  90  40  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              37  41  29  49  34 /  80  60  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  43  35  47  41 /  60  50  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43


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