Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 281006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
506 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
develop across the Gulf waters and coastal zones throughout the
morning thanks to a weak coastal trough extending down the TX
coast. Models are suggesting a coastal low may develop along this
trough later this morning, and the location of this low will have
a large impact on the location and amounts of rainfall for the
area today. Right now, it looks like most of the rainfall will
stay over the waters and right along the coastal zones, with
perhaps some more scattered development further inland this
afternoon. With PWs still in the neighborhood of 2.0-2.2 inches
right along the coast, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with these showers/storms today, especially if they train over the
same areas. Isolated pockets of greater than 2-2.5 inches of
rainfall will be possible with some of these storms today, with
the greatest potential near and along the coast. In addition,
some of these showers/storms may be capable of producing brief
funnel clouds or waterspouts over the coastal areas. Much like
yesterday, inland convection should die off after sunset with most
of the activity concentrated offshore heading into tonight.

A similar setup is forecast tomorrow with showers/thunderstorms
initially over the waters and coastal zones early in the morning
before spreading inland during the afternoon. By tomorrow
afternoon, the coastal trough will have diminished and winds
will become moderate southerly in response to a deepening surface
low over the plains. At the same time, an area of upper-level
weakness that has been aiding in driving the convection over the
past couple of days will continue to push towards the northern
Gulf with upper ridging trying to nose in from Mexico. The net
result of all of this will be a down tick in convection over the
Gulf tomorrow night followed by an eastward shift in the daytime
convection on Friday. Upper ridging will continue to build in
from the west this weekend, which should put an end to rain
chances for at least a few days. An upper level disturbance
rotating around the plains early next week may weaken the ridging
enough to squeeze out a couple showers or storms on Tuesday.

Otherwise, hot temperatures for the next couple of days will get
hotter (low to mid 90s) this weekend as the forecast dries out.
Heat indices are forecast in the 100-105 degree range this weekend
and into next week.  11


Mid level circulation helping to focus scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms over the coastal waters this morning. As the
coastal trough meanders around and in from the coast expect the
storms to continue develop and spread inland. During the afternoon
hours may see a lull over the coastal waters before it fires up
again tonight. Winds this morning 15 to 20 knots and will keep a
SCEC going through 7 am then let it come down only to come back up
in the eastern waters late this afternoon as gradient tightens back
up. Elevated tide levels will continue with the persistent coastal
troughing. Beach hazard statement extended through 7 pm but will
likely need extending through tonight with increase in winds. Rip
current stronger today and probably begin to see some overwash on 87
near High Island during the high tide this afternoon with these same
conditions tonight and Thursday. For what it is worth the ARW core
and TT-WRF both focus showers and thunderstorms over the coastal
waters this afternoon/tonight with the potential for stronger winds.
Will need to keep an eye on future runs for some consistency and if
so may warrant bumping up winds 5-15 knots.


Tough forecast today. VLIFR at UTS this morning with BKN001 and
showers streaming into the the coastal areas. How far the showers
make it inland this morning is a tough call. Expecting as the
nocturnal elevated winds relax may see a break focusing showers
closer to the coast then jumping inland with a little heating. GFS
soundings look to be too dry in the LL at 12z so have trended toward
NMM/NAM/HRRR solutions which show an increase in coverage around 15z
for SGR/LVJ/HOU/LBX areas then very slowly expanding northward in
the afternoon and clearing near the coast. Overnight expect to see
SHRA redevelop over the waters and spread inland along the length
of the coast around 06-08z.


College Station (CLL)      91  74  91  77  92 /  30  10  30  10  30
Houston (IAH)              87  75  89  78  90 /  50  30  60  20  40
Galveston (GLS)            83  79  87  82  88 /  70  50  70  30  40


GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from this afternoon through
     Thursday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters
     from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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