Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210245
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED AN SCEC FOR THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AT 930 PM THAT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE OF
MATAGORDA BAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LA/AR
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.

TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY GRIDS.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR E WINDS WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD BE VFR AND WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MIFG. E WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO
8-10KTS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK /18Z
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING 45 TO 50 KT WINDS/ UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SPEEDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER LAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF NOW RESEMBLING THE GFS IN TERMS OF A
FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TX. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES LATE
WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND. THERE/S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WHICH
DAY...SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WILL BE WARMER. FOR NOW... WILL SIDE
WITH SUNDAY BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE BIGGEST FORECASTING CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND MARINE
IMPACTS FROM A DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA... EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

14

MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA) IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO THE
AREA. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EITHER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED RETURN TO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  84  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  84  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  70  80  69 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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