424
FXUS64 KHGX 091819
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
119 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across
Southeast TX this afternoon through early evening with a few strong
storms possible.

- Gusty winds, brief heavy downpours (potentially resulting in minor
street flooding), and frequent lightning can be expected with any
storms this afternoon.

- A daily risk of showers and storms continues in the next 7 days,
though coverage is expected to be less as we head into the weekend.

- Daily high temperatures will continue to be at or just below
  seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Regardless, it is
  summer in Southeast TX and technically still hot. Make sure to
  take breaks if spending time or working outside and stay
  hydrated.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

An active afternoon with scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms across Southeast TX and the Upper TX coast. The
region continues to be situated between high-pressure systems
aloft, bringing some "troughiness" over the us thanks to a mid-
level trough over the Ohio Valley. This weakness aloft, combined
with steep low- level lapse rates (~ 7 C/km), and deep low-level
convergence are producing this scattered to widespread activity
across the region. We should also make a note of the precipitable
water values remaining over our region. Early this afternoon,
latest readings show values in the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range. To
provide perspective, this is around the Max percentile of
climatology for today. In simple terms, rain and storms are likely
across most of the region this afternoon/early evening. A
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rain continues for all of SE TX today.
Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.5 inches/hr are expected, with
localized 2-3 inches/hr possible with some of the strongest
storms. Speaking of strong storms, we are already seeing storms
capable of producing gusty winds up to 40-45 mph, along with
frequent lightning. Rain/storms should diminish this evening as
the sun goes down. Albeit, some lingering rain could persist until
late night as some upper lvl forcing meanders over the region.
Stay weather alert; exercise caution during your commute.

The pattern aloft does not change much for Thursday. A few
shortwaves associated with the mid-level trough over the Ohio
Valley will be moving over us throughout the day. Again, the
ingredients for scattered showers and storms are there: enough
moisture, instability and forcing. Therefore, expect another warm
day with rain and storm chances, becoming likely in the afternoon
with the peak of daytime heating. This time, the best focus will
be for areas north of I-10 with a light activity as early as
7-8am. However, we cannot also rule out some activity over the
coastal waters in the morning.

Beyond Friday...ridging aloft remains strong over the southwest
CONUS, while different shortwaves embedded within the flow move
over the region. This pattern will continue to bring a daily risk
of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage of these storms, on the
other hand should be less than we have seen over the past couple
of days. However, strong storms and locally heavy downpours will
be possible each day. Most of this activity will be confined for
areas roughly south of I-10.

Regarding temperatures...it will continue to be warm and humid,
but it won`t feel as hot as we typically see for early July. NBM
guidance continues to suggest well-above average temperatures;
therefore, have leaned towards a blend between NBM and NBM50 for
temperatures. This is mostly due to cloud cover and daily
precipitation chances. Overall, expect highs from the upper 80s to
low 90s...becoming hotter towards the middle of next week.
Temperatures remain near seasonal, but don`t forget to keep
practicing heat safety whenever you are as peak heat indices in
the triple digits are expected each day.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Very sparse MVFR CIGs but otherwise VFR conditions broadly
prevail across the area this morning. Scattered showers/isolated
storms are already developing over the Gulf waters this morning.
Storms should move inland and increase in coverage during the
afternoon, later tapering off into the evening as S/SW winds
become light and variable again. Early Thursday morning could see
a few sparse MVFR CIGs, mainly to the north/northwest near KCLL,
though VFR conditions will dominate throughout the period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Surface high pressure centered across the eastern Gulf will continue
to bring light to moderate south to southeast winds across the Upper
TX coast. Gusts from 15 to 20 knots are expected at times. Seas
remain into the 2 to 4 ft range the rest of the week and into the
weekend. The main marine concern will be gusty winds and elevated
seas near any strong storms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected along the coast and further inland this afternoon and
evening. Expect a similar pattern through the weekend with showers
and storms offshore in the mornings, spreading inland by midday.
Onshore winds, low seas and rain/storm chances will continue through
at least next Wednesday.

Beach conditions: A moderate risk of rip currents continues across
all Gulf-facing beaches through the end of the week. The high risk
will be possible during the weekend. Stay weather alert, follow
beach flag systems, and always swim near a lifeguard.

JM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  73  92  74 /  60  10  20   0
Houston (IAH)  90  75  93  76 /  70  20  40   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  82  90  82 /  80  20  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM