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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231712
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.AVIATION...
For the most part, TAFs seem on track as radar shows the first
showers starting to pop up around Galveston Bay. Much of the
stronger convection is occurring nearer the upper low over SW
Louisiana, but think environment is still able to support some
lightning in our area with the strongest cells, so will leave
inherited VCTS.

Otherwise, have more or less gone with a persistence forecast
regarding ceilings/visibilities overnight. This means VFR prevails
for most, but do briefly step down to MVFR and UTS and CXO.

Luchs

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Did make a few tweaks to the forecast for this afternoon. Activity
currently moving down through Central TX could throw out a few out-
flow boundaries which would help produce isolated/widely scattered
activity across our N/NW counties later this afternoon. And so did
rain POPS a bit for these locations through the early evening hrs.
Also still keeping a close eye on points just to our east where we
are seeing quite a bit of unsettled weather related to that linger-
ing upper low. Short-term guidance staying rather bullish with the
idea of scattered storms developing over our eastern counties soon-
er than later today. 41

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

Skies are generally partly cloudy early this morning across much
of Southeast Texas. Temperatures at 4 AM range from the upper 70s
inland to the low to mid 80s at the coast. There are only a few
showers across the offshore waters at this hour. With a mid/upper
level weakness still across the area and precipitable water values
lingering around 2 inches, think we`ll see possible shower and
thunderstorm development today with the highest chances east and
lowest chances out west. Much lower rain chances are in store for
the upcoming week as upper level ridging builds into the area.
Temperatures will be warming up, eventually ranging from the lower
90s near the coast to the upper 90s and close to 100 well inland,
and this will help to boost heat index values a little closer to
our heat index criteria of 108 degrees (will continue to highlight
this in our Hazardous Weather Outlook). Some late July heat
relief might come toward the end of the week and/or on into next
weekend as large upper level ridging out west and a deep upper
trough to the east helps to drive a frontal boundary southward
into our area. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      96  77  98  76  97 /  30  30  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              91  78  95  77  95 /  40  50  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            88  83  90  83  91 /  40  40  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this
     afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
     waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...25