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000
FXUS64 KHGX 140336
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1036 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO ADD THE MENTION OF
SEVERE FOR THE NRN ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING
PERIOD. BASED ON EARLIER TRENDS LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITHIN
THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRYLINE DOES AP-
PEAR ABLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WX. HOWEVER...SAVE FOR THAT LONE
TSRA ABOUT TO ENTER THE CWA THE ACTIVITY ON THE DRYLINE DOES
SEEM TO BE WINDING DOWN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON POS-
SIBLE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT ITSELF TOWARD SUNRISE ALONG
WITH OUTFLOWS/OTHER MESO FEATURES. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. HOUSTON COUNTY AT THIS TIME HAS A THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...BENEATH
THE CAP. THE BETTER FORCING IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MOST PLACES.

ON MONDAY...COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN EROSION OF THE
CAP...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GIVE RAIN TO
MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING FRONT REACHING
CALDWELL...BRYAN AND CROCKETT AROUND 7 OR 8 AM...AND REACHING THE
COAST AROUND 1 OR 2 PM. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...LOOKING FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS AS A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ENTERS THE
AREA ON A GUSTY NORTH WIND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS LIKE GALVESTON
WHICH ARE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AFTER COLD MORNINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP
AND MORE HUMIDITY AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ACTUALLY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WITH ECMWF KEEPING COOLER AIR FARTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  66  35  63  38 /  40  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  73  41  65  40 /  30  60  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  70  47  64  51 /  20  60  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$