Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 212029
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE UP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH TX THIS
AFTN SO WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE IN THAT DIRECTION THIS EVENING. NO
REAL CHANGES TO THE FCST HOWEVER AS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OVER OUR NRN ZONES INITIALLY (IN PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY). POPS
SHOULD WORK DOWN TO THE COAST TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOW-
LY SAGS INTO THE REGION. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD/STRONG SHRA/
TSRAS WITH THIS FROPA GIVEN THE STILL SOMEWHAT DRY/CAPPED AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE DRIER THIS INCOMING AIRMASS SHOULD WARM UP
RATHER EFFICIENTLY TOMORROW/TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING (IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WX SYSTEM) TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN/STRENGTHEN. SO...MOSTLY DRY/SEASONAL
TEMPS/SLOWLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FCST FOR THIS WEEK.

RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN LATE FRI AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK ON THE
IDEA OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE GENERALLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SW
FLOW ALOFT. THESE LOW POPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE UP-
COMING WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS APPEARS TO BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
POSSIBLE STRONG(ISH) LATE SEASON COLD FRONT NEXT TUES. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE HOLDING FIRM THUS FAR WITH THIS FCST. 41

&&

.MARINE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE COAST WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW BUT BUILD TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN A LONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH. 39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  84  62  85  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  84  62  85  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  65  79  67 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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