Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 262346
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
646 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
BIT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS UP OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST WILL LOSE THE GUST
CHARACTERISTIC BY AROUND 03Z. FAIRLY LARGE CAPPING INVERSION
OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP IN THE FORMATION OF MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR
CONDITIONS. A MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SE TX
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRY
LINE WILL SWING THE WINDS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM KCLL AND
KUTS SOUTH TO ABOUT KIAH. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER AT KLBX
AND KGLS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT PAST HOUSTON BEFORE RETURNING BACK
INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET WX ACROSS SE TX SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT EXPECTING THIS
TO CHANGE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEEPEN-
ING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING. THIS LINE IS FCST TO MOVE E/
SE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...LIKELY REACHING THE NW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABIL-
ITY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES INTO SE TX...THERE IS STILL CONCERNS WITH CAP STRENGTH.
HOWEVER WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD THE MENTION OF SEVERE WX FOR THESE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CELLS WILL
BE MOVING SO EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS OVERNIGHT WILL AVG FROM 1/2 TO
2 INCHES.

CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM THE WEST BY WEDS AFTN WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER E/NE. A BIT OF A BREAK THEN UNTIL FRI WITH
THE UPPER FLOW GOING ZONAL BRIEFLY. THAT BEING SAID...WILL LEAVE
SOME ISO POPS FOR THUR AFTN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST/CENTRAL ZONES
IN DEFERENCE TO THE SEABREEZE. OTHERWISE RAIN CHCS RETURN TO THE
FCST FRI (IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER TROF/LOW DIGGING AOA THE
FOUR CORNERS). STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS
SYSTEM PROGGED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FOR BOTH FRI
AND SAT. FCSTS OF HIGH PWS (1.8"-2") AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
POINTING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LATER RUNS KEEP RUNNING WITH THIS. 41

MARINE...
MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEK...PRIMARILY OVER NIGHT AT STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS WHERE CAUTION
AND/OR ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE REQUIRED. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS AND THE
FETCH LENGTHENS IN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. CORRESPONDING WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL SEE A FURTHER UPWARD BUMP GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      87  69  86  67  87 /  10  60  30  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  72  87  71  87 /  10  50  50  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  73  81  74  83 /  10  20  50  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



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