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000
FXUS64 KHGX 121818
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
118 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SEA BREEZE HAS STARTED MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST...HOWEVER
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARE BEING SQUASHED IN
TO SUBMISSION. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SE
TEXAS SHOULD KEEP ALL TERMINALS RAIN FREE THIS AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
EAST COMBINED WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
IMPROVE OUR CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD
STILL BE FAIRLY SPOTTY. HAVE ADDRESSED SUNDAY PRECIP WITH
VCSH/VCTS UNTIL THE COVERAGE IS MORE CERTAIN.     44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

UPDATE...
CHANGE TO POPS AND WEATHER NEAR THE COAST AND THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR TODAY.

40

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER SE TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CAP
OVERHEAD...THE CAPE IS LIMITED EXPECTED TOWARD THE COAST. PW/S ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 1.5 AT KCLL AND 1.7 AT KGLS. THESE
WERE CLOSE TO THE AREA UPPER AIR 12Z SOUNDINGS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DIFFER BUT HAVE ENOUGH OF A CONSENSUS TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BAYS...AND GULF WATERS INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS...BUT KEPT
THE POPS AT 10 PERCENT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA TODAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT. LOWER VISIBILITIES SEEN AT THE
RURAL SITES THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER AS THE SUN RISES.
SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE
WEST WITH A WEAKNESS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAIN INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.9" AND K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S. THE GFS IS NOT
NEAR THIS AGGRESSIVE. EITHER WAY LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE SUNDAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF BIG BEND DRIFTING AWAY TO THE WEST AND
TROUGH TRAILING BACK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE EAST
COAST. SE TX UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY A FEW SPECKLES SHOWING UP RADAR OVER THE GULF
WATERS. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS 98-94 INLAND AND NEAR 90 ON THE
COAST. RICHER MOISTURE OVER LA COAST WILL BE SHIFTING EAST AND
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AS UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES WEST
INTO SE TX SO HAVE RAISED POPS FOR SUNDAY BEGINNING OVER THE GULF
IN THE MORNING AND SHIFTING WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GREATER
COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH. K INDEX VALUES SOAR TO 30-38. NAM IS EVEN
MORE ASSERTIVE WITH THE MOISTURE POOL AND SWINGS IN PW OF 2-2.2"
BUT HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT WHERE THE MOISTURE ORIGINATES
FROM....BUT IF THESE RICHER VALUES COME TO PASS THEN POPS WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE MUCH HIGHER AND MAY HAVE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
UPPER SHEAR AXIS FORMS AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA MONDAY BUT WITH
LESS LIFT SO POPS SHOULD BE LOWER FOR MONDAY. DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
WILL LIKELY BECOME A VERY ACTIVE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NE TX THAT EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SE TX. STEERING
FLOW SHOULD PUSH STORMS OFF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INTO SE TX.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS
(RANGES FROM COAST TO JUST NORTH OF CROCKETT) BUT OVERALL THE
PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HARD TO PICK WHICH DAY THOUGH IS THE MOST ACTIVE
SO FOR NOW WILL BE CARRYING 30-40 POPS NORTH TO 20 NEAR THE COAST.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 101-104 WILL BE GRADUALLY
INCREASING SUNDAY AND SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY AT 103 TO 108. MAY
FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RAINS MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

45

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW. ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO RISE. SEAS AND WINDS COULD BE HIGHER IN
STRONGER STORMS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  97  75  99  74 /  10  30  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  95  76  97  76 /  20  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  90  81  90  80 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...44