Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
841 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Big picture forecast on track as drier air pushes into Southeast
Texas in the wake of today`s front. Though some CAMs indicate
potential for another thin, broken band of very light showers very
late tonight, will keep the forecast dry. Have mainly made
cosmetic tweaks to keep temperatures and dew points in line with
observations. Perhaps the most significant challenge of the
evening will be timing the eventual decrease of clouds from
northwest to southeast after midnight. After that, a wonderful
Sunday looks to be on the schedule with sunny skies and highs in
the low to mid 70s. It may be a bit breezy though, particularly in
the morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

Some TAF sites will be dealing with BKN/OVC MVFR ceilings through
the early morning hours. Much of the area will gradually dry out
overnight, and several locations will have gusty N/NNW winds under
a tightening pressure gradient. Skies should be clear tomorrow
with the occasionally gusty winds diminishing in the mid to late
afternoon hours as the gradient relaxes.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

A strengthening storm system over the plains will move eastward
tonight. The associated cold front had already moved through most
of SE Texas and as of 3:00 PM was on the verge of moving onto the
coastline. Breezy northerly and northwesterly winds will affect
the area for the remainder of the afternoon. The mostly cloudy
skies will then become mostly clear overnight tonight as the upper
level storm system moves into the MS valley and as surface high
pressure builds into SE Texas. Fair and mild conditions are then
expected through Monday as an upper level shortwave ridge moves

Onshore winds return on Tuesday with above normal temperatures
then expected Tuesday through Saturday. Another frontal system
will approach the forecast area during the mid week period. The
GFS and ECMWF disagree on whether or not the front will make its
way to the coast. A stronger storm system will develop over the
southern Rockies late in the week. Increased warm air advection,
moisture advection off of the Gulf of Mexico, and lift from upper
level shortwave troughs will increase the chances of showers and
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. For now, isolated coverage is
possible on Friday and scattered coverage on Saturday since the
surface front will likely be over OK and the TX panhandle.



A cold front and associated showers will be pushing off the coast
over the next hour or so, bringing breezy north-northwesterly winds
in its wake. Small craft should exercise caution this afternoon as
winds and waves pick up behind the front. A Small Craft Advisory has
been issued for all waters from 7PM this evening through Sunday
morning, but this may need to be extended into Sunday afternoon.

Breezy offshore winds will be decreasing Sunday night into Monday
before gradually becoming onshore by Tuesday. The gradient will
begin to tighten Tuesday through much of the week next week, and
caution or advisory flags may be required as early as mid week. 11


College Station (CLL)      49  72  49  79  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              52  74  52  81  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            60  74  63  76  69 /  10   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters
     from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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