National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KHGX 100057
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
757 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014


.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL RIDGING CAN BE SEEN SPREADING OVER SETX AND APPEARS TO
BE HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE MID/LOWER LEVELS OF CLOUDS. S/W OVER
MEXICO IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF VIRGA/SPRINKLES FROM OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY TO MEXICO TO DEEP SOUTH TX. WITH THE SKIES CLEARING THIS
EVENING THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP. T/TD SPREADS ARE NARROWING AND EXPECT THAT LIGHT FOG WILL
SET IN BETWEEN 04-08Z WILL PROBABLY BECOME THICKER AS TEMPERATURES
DIP TO MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE WINDOW BETWEEN 09-12Z. THE INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT THE SOUTHERN AREA TERMINAL INCLUDING IAH
FROM GETTING SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG BUT CAN`T RULE OUT CXO
EXPERIENCING 1/4-1/2 MILE VISBY. CLOUD COVER IN THE MID LEVELS
INCREASES QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING AND AS LL FLOW VEERS TO THE SE
AND S EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO FORM FOR COASTAL AREAS AND SPREAD
INLAND. CHANGES ARE COMING...AS THE 850 FLOW BECOMES INCREASING
MORE SOUTHERLY AND INTENSIFIES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE -RA/SHRA (POSSIBLY
TSRA) SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS AFTER 00Z.
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
AND MAY HAVE SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE 04-12Z WINDOW TUESDAY.
45



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TYPICAL WINTER 2013-14 DAY UNDER OVERCAST...COOL AND DAMP.
WITH THE 85H FRONT WASHING OUT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...LATE
DAY BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD COVER MAY ACTUALLY ALLOW SOME COMMUNITIES
(CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE) TO EXPERIENCE THE 60S FOR A BRIEF HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE THE SUN SETS AT 730 LT. AS MANY HEAD INTO THEIR
FIRST FEW DAYS OF SPRING BREAK WEEK...WEATHER CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER WILL BE THE LARGE NEAR-STATIONARY UPPER
LOW THAT IS CHURNING BETWEEN THE SONARA/CHIHUAHUA PROVINCES IN
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS LOW/OPEN WAVE INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE EAST
AND BE INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. HIGHER
PVA BEING THROWN UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
SPLIT IN THE UPPER JET STRUCTURE...MAY BE THE IMPETUS TO COMMENCE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERN (COASTAL BEND/MATAGORDA BAY) RAIN AS EARLY AS
MID-LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...THE EAST-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT
AND ANY SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL...BUT
ALL INDICATORS ARE THAT MANY OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WILL PICK UP ON AVERAGE HALF INCH TO AN INCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST RAINFALL FROM EPISODES OF MORE MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS...OR
EAST OF EITHER A WEAK CLOSED-OFF LOW OR AN INVERTED TROF AXIS. POPS/WX/QPF
CURRENTLY REFLECTING A SCENARIO OF THE LOW CONTINUING ON MORE OF
AN EASTERN-VERSUS-NORTHERN TREK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

WARMTH IS ON THE WAY AS EARLY DAY OVERCAST BREAKS UP THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
THERMOMETERS WARM INTO THE SEASONABLE LOWER 70S. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE OVER LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BACKSIDE SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD CLEAR SKIES OUT TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND ALLOW
OUR LOCAL STAR TO WORK ON US. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WORK DONE BY
MID-DAY TUESDAY TO REALIZE NEAR 80 F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS.
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY RAIN-WISE BUT
FOLLOWING CAA SHOULD BE ENOUGH (NEAR 5 C 8H TEMPS) TO REGULATE
WARMTH INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER A MODERATE NORTH WIND. IF THESE
N-NE WINDS DIE DOWN ENOUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...FAR INTERIOR
READINGS WILL AGAIN CHILL BACK DOWN TO SLIGHTLY UNDER 40F (MID-
UPPER 40S ALONG COAST). THUS...AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SPRING THE
REGION WILL FALL BACK TO MORE MILD WINTER STANDARDS TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK. RETURN FLOW BY LATE THURSDAY WILL INCREASE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES AND INCREASE THOSE UNDER-THE-CAP SHOWERS
FRIDAY. WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING FURTHER
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WITH LOWERING WESTERN TX SFC PRESSURES SATURDAY
..MAY ALLOW HIGHER MID-UPPER VORTICITY TO STREAM INTO AN INCREASING
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A SUNDAY FROPA. LOW END CHANCE POPS
NEXT WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SITUATION. 31

MARINE...
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A NNE WIND TONIGHT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TONIGHT BUT FEEL
ITS BEST TO MAINTAIN THE SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 05Z.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND WEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY IN ITS WAKE. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP NEXT THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY MORNING.
43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      45  73  54  77  49 /  10  30  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  72  54  75  53 /  10  30  50  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  69  57  70  57 /  10  30  60  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...45