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000
FXUS64 KHGX 071718
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1118 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT ECHOES ARE NOW APPEARING ON THE RADAR THANKS TO WEAK
UPGLIDE/LIFT. THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING UNDER THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER RETURNS. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND IN COMBINATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW IFR
TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR CIGS TONIGHT. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN AMDAR AND UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED. 23


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR. THESE ARE CORRESPONDING TO
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN. HAVE EVEN HAD A FEW REPORTS OF ICE PELLETS.
TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR NW ZONES
WITH MUCH OF BRAZOS...BURLESON AT OR BELOW FREEZING...AND PORTIONS
OF MADISON...COLORADO...WALLER...WALKER...HOUSTON AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES LIKELY THE SAME. WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND THIS PATCHY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THINK TEMPERATURES MAY CREEP ABOUT JUST A
FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS.

WITH REGION BECOMING LOCATED IN FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SEEING MORE ECHOES
UPSTREAM...THINK THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME AREAS STILL
CLOSE TO FREEZING...HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME ICY PATCHES
FOR THOSE NW COUNTIES TODAY...EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS VERY
LIGHT. AM CONSIDERING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NW COUNTIES
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW THE LATEST
DATA COME IN. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED CLOUDY & COLD WX TODAY WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET FOR MANY AREAS (OLD RECORDS: 40 CLL, 45
IAH, 49 GLS). RADAR SHOWING SOME REALLY LIGHT RETURNS HEADED
NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST. EXPECT INCREASED ISENTROPIC
LIFT AN SOME SCT AREAS OF DZ OR --RA DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS MIGHT FALL OVER
PLACES SEEING TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AT TIMES.
OVERALL COVERAGE AND FCST ACCUMULATIONS ARE JUST TOO LOW FOR ME
TO CONSIDER ANY KIND OF ADVISORIES ATTM. ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON THOUGH.

WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY/DZ/--RA TYPE SOUNDINGS.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT
ITS STILL NOT LOOKING AS COLD AS PREVIOUS DAYS GUIDANCE SUSPECTED
IT MIGHT BE. DUE TO CONSISTENCY OF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WENT
AHEAD AND NUDGED TEMPS UP A TOUGH FROM WHERE WE HAD THEM AND
BUMPED POPS UP ANOTHER 10%.

SFC HIGH GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO THE SE STATES DURING THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL TEMP MODIFICATION. STILL
APPEARS WE`RE LOOKING AT A CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A COASTAL
TROF DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
ON AN UPWARD TREND HEADED INTO FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS AREN`T
IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO WHEN THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION & THEREBY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END. GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH ITS MOVEMENT THAN THE ECMWF. GIVING THE ECMWF
MORE WEIGHT ON THIS ONE THOUGH AND CONTINUING POPS THRU NEXT
WEEKEND. SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH (IF ANY) SUNSHINE UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. 47

MARINE...
WINDS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF DECREASING (ESPECIALLY FOR THE
BAYS) THIS MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON
AS IT IS CURRENTLY CONFIGURED. HOWEVER EVEN AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DE-
CREASES...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE SFC HIGH STAYS
E/NE OF THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON MON COULD RAISE WINDS/
SEAS BACK TO ADVISORY/CAUTION CRITERIA BY MON NIGHT. 41

AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING (EXCEPT FOR CXO WHERE
IFR CIGS HAVE PERSISTED). SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A
RETURN OF PCPN LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE SW. GIVEN THE TIMING...NOT THAT CON-
CERNED WITH THE PROSPECT OF WINTRY/FROZEN PCPN ATTM. THESE MVFR CIG
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS -FZDZ THREAT FOR
CLL/UTS TERMINALS. 41


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      33  31  45  37  46 /  30  30  30  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              38  36  47  42  52 /  30  40  30  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            43  41  50  49  56 /  30  40  30  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23