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000
FXUS64 KHGX 181137
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD
START TO SCATTER OUT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS COULD HAVE
TROUBLE BURNING OFF CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE SATURATION IS A BIT
DEEPER. HAZE COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
MIXING OCCURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
FEEL THAT WIND SHOULD KEEP AREAS OF FOG LIMITED. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A WARM AND CLOUDY NIGHT ACROSS SE TX WITH SUMMER-LIKE MIN TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TO CHG
CONCERNING TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS CONTINUE. WITH MIXING TODAY...WE
ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME HAZE AGAIN WITH SMOKE FROM MEXICO IN THE
AIR.

MADE AN ADJUSTMENT TO BUMP POPS UP TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUES AFT AS A MID/UPPER
TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS TROF IS MORE SIGNIFICANT IN
THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE DECIDED TO GO UP
INTO THE CHC POP CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
AN MCS COULD AFFECT THE AREA. A WEAK BOUNDARY COULD LINGER AND
FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON WED AND WED EVE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY...THE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES
THAT MIN TEMPS WILL COOL LATE IN THE FORECAST PD CLOSER TO CLIMO
VALUES. SO...MADE SOME DOWNWARD MIN TEMP ADJUSTMENTS AT THE END
OF THE PD. 33

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 23

AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SMOKE COULD AGAIN REDUCE VISIBILITIES TOMORROW AS MIXING
OCCURS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  72  91  73  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  72  90  73  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  73  82  73  82 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...23