Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 210302
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
TOMORROW...LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST SHOULD LEAD TO LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS EXPECTATION.

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR THE COAST TOMORROW ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 105. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR. AREAWIDE NORTHERN-BASED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. A QUIET TAF PACKAGE IN RELATION
TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS EASTERN RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD
AND SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
LIES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE A LONE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...
BUT AM ANTICIPATING MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY. HIGHER
PWAT AIR MASS OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES RESIDING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF MAINLY SCATTERED MARITIME SHOWERS
(VCSH IN KGLS). BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE 11 THROUGH
13Z HOUR...BUT SOME HUBS WILL FALL TO MVFR FOR LESS THAN AN HOUR
SO HAVE PLACED SOME TEMPO`S IN TO COVER THIS CHANCE OCCURRENCE. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS SE TX
THIS AFTN (PER THE ONGOING CONVECTION INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS). DID EXTEND CHC POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE CURR-
ENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE GRIDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS MODELS CONTINUE WITH FCST OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE EAST. POPS SHOULD BE GOING DOWN BUT LINGERING +2"PW AIR-
MASS COULD PRODUCE ISO ACTIVITY TOMORROW MORNING/AFTN. HOWEVER AS
RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...THE DRYING AIRMASS
WILL BE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISO STORMS ON/
NEAR THE SEABREEZE.

BUT THAT BEING SAID...GFS IS HINTING AT THE RETURN OF DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE (+2"PWS) SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT TOO SURPRISED WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT MORE N/NE NEXT WEEK
AND WE GET MORE ON THE UNDERSIDE OF IT (I.E. A MORE OPEN GULF)...
THUS HERALDING THE RETURN OF SCT MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING GENERATED
PCPN. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER TEMPS DOWN (A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OR SO) NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH TOMORROW EVE. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  98  77  98  77 /  40  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  96  77  98  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  83  92  83 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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