Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 192314
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
FCST SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION
OVERNIGHT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS BULLISH WITH MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT BUT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. CONDS STILL
LOOK RATHER FAVORABLE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE STEADILY ACROSS SE
TX THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING. LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT TO WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES
RATHER LIMITED AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WHILE THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST N/NW OF THE CWA ON MON
WITH THIS FEATURE...ISO COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MON NIGHT/
EARLY TUES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF A DRIER (BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER) AIR
MASS TO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THIS 1ST PART OF THE WEEK WX
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO FLATTEN/SHIFT FURTHER EAST BY WEEKS END. THE
RESULTING ZONAL TO SLIGHT SWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD OPEN US UP TO A
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE(OR TWO). THIS COMBINED WITH THE RE-
TURN OF ONSHORE WINDS/INCREASING MOISTURE SEEMS TO SUPPORT IDEA
OF LOW POPS STARTING LATE THUR (AND MAYBE ON THROUGH NEXT WEEK-
END?). 41

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOW SEAS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE COAST AND THEN STALL
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL TURN WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE THE PLAINS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AT LOW LEVELS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  59  80  62  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  60  81  63  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  64  77  67  77 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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