Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
FXUS64 KHGX 282319
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
Currently seeing some de-development near the coast (likely along
the seabreeze) as the precipitation over the northern half of the
CWA continues to fall apart. At this time, not expecting this ac-
tivity to persist into this evening given how worked over the air
mass is. However...will include the brief mention of VCTS for LBX
with this TAF package. Otherwise not a lot of changes with trends
for tomorrow as the moist/tropical air remains in place across SE
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / 337 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to push northward
this afternoon along an expansive outflow boundary stretching from
near Caldwell to Lufkin. Observed wind gusts along this feature
have been anywhere from between 20 to 40 MPH, with generally light
rain (and an embedded thunderstorm or two) north of Interstate 10
in its wake. Have kept low rain chances (20 PoPs) in the forecast
for areas north of a Columbus to Livingston line this evening for
any lingering activity from this afternoon, but expect most rain
to be gone shortly after sunset. Could also see a few streamer
showers set up across the coastal waters and move onto the coast
early Friday morning, with patchy fog possible across the Brazos
Valley to areas southwest of the Houston metro where some of the
heaviest rain fell today. Otherwise, expect overnight lows in the
mid 70s to low 80s.
With the region remaining in a relative weakness in between two
ridges over the next few days, expect scattered diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms to remain possible through the weekend.
Will need to keep an eye on an upper level disturbance located
over the north central Gulf on afternoon water vapor imagery as
enhanced lift from this feature may result in slightly better
thunderstorm coverage tomorrow afternoon if it is able to reach
the region. Short term guidance shears this feature out as it
lifts northeast of the region around upper ridging near Florida,
but with easterly (albeit relatively weak) steering flow
aloft have low confidence in what model guidance is advertising.
Generally kept with the previous forecast for Friday as a result,
but will need to watch the evolution of this upper disturbance.
For Friday through the weekend, best chances appear to be along
the sea breeze each afternoon with locally heavy rainfall
possible with forecast soundings showing precipitable water values
remaining near 2 inches each afternoon. Mid-level heights do look
to rise a bit by the end of the weekend as the upper ridging
centered over the Great Basin this afternoon builds farther west,
which will help maintain high temperatures in the upper 80s along
the coast to mid and upper 90s inland.
Upper ridging over the state continues to build at the beginning
to middle of next week and this will help limit rain chances,
while keeping afternoon temperatures hot in the upper 80s to upper
90s. A disturbance moving under the ridge by late next week may
bring increasing rain chances back to the region next weekend.
Winds currently 10 to 15 knots with seas of 2 to 3 feet. A few
showers and storms continue to linger along the coast but have
been diminishing throughout the afternoon. Isolated showers and
possibly a thunderstorm are expected to develop Friday morning
before moving inland during the afternoon. Light to moderate winds
are expected to continue through the weekend and early next week.
Seas should be limited to 3 feet or less for the weekend. Tide
levels will likely remain near normal levels or maybe a half foot
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 96 77 96 77 / 20 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 78 97 78 95 78 / 10 30 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 90 82 90 82 / 20 20 10 30 10