Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 272049
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NW MEXICO KEEPING A
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE TONIGHT WHILE TROUGHING FROM MAINE
TO ALABAMA TO THE GULF MAINTAINS THE DRY PATTERN OVER SETX THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT BUT AFTER THE DEEP
PENETRATION OF THIS EXTREMELY UNUSUAL DRY AIRMASS INTO THE GULF IT
WILL BE SOME TIME BEFORE THE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS. LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A KEY INGREDIENT IN THE SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE.
LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES OVERHEAD.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE BUT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE TROUGH AXIS/LOW SETS UP OVERHEAD MONDAY-THURSDAY WITH
MINOR WOBBLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
FORECAST EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND SOME INDICATIONS OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITIES CROP UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TRYING TO
PINPOINT THE SPECIFIC TIMES AT THIS POINT IS DIFFICULT BUT SUFFICE
IT SAY THAT WITH PW 2"/K INDEX 36-39/STORM MOTIONS 8-10KTS ARE
COMMON INGREDIENTS BOTH DAYS. CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GIVE THE AREA LOWER TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES INLAND WHERE WE GET THE RAINS.
45

&&
.MARINE...
ANALYSIS OF AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS PLACED THE UPPER TEXAS WATERS ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH... LEAVING LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME AS THIS HAPPENS AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
KEEPING SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. MOISTURE RETURN FROM ONSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME... WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  97  72  96  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  95  72  93  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  90  79  90  79 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
MARINE/AVIATION...HUFFMAN


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