Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 280523
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1123 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF SE TX WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS AT
KLBX. MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE SOME MIXING KEEPING CIGS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...
MAINLY MVFR EXPECTED BY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON
SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL MSTR GRADUALLY DEEPENS. SCT SHRA WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SAT NIGHT.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 9 PM...THE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 37 TO 40 FROM CROCKETT AND
HUNTSVILLE SOUTHWEST ACROSS COLLEGE STATION...WHILE BRENHAM WAS
OBSERVING A TEMPERATURE OF 42. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST RAP13 AND NAM12 BOTH KEEP SURFACE WET
BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG THE FAR
NORTHWEST BORDERS OF BURLESON...BRAZOS...MADISON...AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGHOUT A
MOIST LAYER BELOW 700 MB MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH
A DRIER AIRMASS NUDGING WESTWARD FROM LA INTO LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 45.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT WORSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY
MIX MAY OCCUR WEST OF A BRYAN TO CROCKETT LINE LATER TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW CLOSE THE DRIZZLE AREA AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN MOVE IN FROM WEST. FOR NOW...THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...HOWEVER WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE LATER IF
NEEDED.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      33  53  50  68  59 /  30  40  40  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  57  52  71  63 /  20  30  40  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            44  56  56  67  62 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$


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