


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
091 FXUS64 KHGX 120557 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - Chances for scattered showers and storms continues through the weekend and into early next week. A few storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Increased rip current risk over the weekend along the Gulf- facing beaches. - Forecast trending drier after the middle of next week and may lead to an increasing trend in temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Have any outdoor plans over the weekend? If you answered yes, then you`ll want to keep an umbrella or poncho nearby. If you answered no and you`re a fan of naps, then you`ll have a shot at perfect napping weather. Elevated PW values (near or above 2.0") combined with PVA from a passing shortwave as a generally trough-y pattern over the Central/Southern Plains continues will lead to continuous rain chances over the weekend. Rain chances will peak during the afternoon hours as daytime heating along with sea/bay breeze interactions become prevalent. Exact coverage is still tough to gauge, but the latest HREF reflects most of the higher-end rainfall totals to occur along or north of I-10 for both Saturday and Sunday. This is also a good time to mention that there will continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds in any of the stronger storms that develop. As a result of the increased rain chances over the weekend, we can expect high temperatures to continue to top out in the low to mid 90s with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s (low 80s along the coast). Rain chances continue going into early next week, but do look to go on a decreasing trend. This is due to the mid level trough evolving into a cutoff low around the Oklahoma/Kansas border. PVA in our region will be subsequently limited and doubly so with a gradually expanding mid level high pressure that will be centered over the southeastern CONUS. Temperatures do look to go on a warming trend beyond the middle of next week, but based on recent history I`m taking this with a little grain of salt. When I was on the forecast desk last week, the temperatures for literally right now were supposed to be in the mid to upper 90s...and the same thing happened the week before that as well. The forecast has been calling for these hotter temperatures to arrive towards the end of the forecast period, but so far it hasn`t actually materialized. As a matter of fact, the latest NBM actually backed off on high temperatures reaching the upper 90s after midweek and is now showing mid 90s. There are some hints in deterministic model guidance that mid level high pressure (AKA heat dome) could slide in overhead, but there is also some guidance that keeps it to our east. So this kind of feels like an "I`ll believe it when I see it" situation. All that being said, it`s still going to be hot and in the 90s...the main question is are we looking at low to mid 90s or mid to upper 90s? If the mid level high moves overhead like in the ECMWF, we`d have the mid to upper 90s. If the mid level high remains centered to our east like in the Canadian, we`d see low to mid 90s. Either way, it`s still July...high temperatures in the upper 90s will happen eventually. Batiste && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Widely scattered showers will continue to push northward from the Gulf tonight and into the morning, mostly impacting our southern and coastal counties. Scattered shra/tsra activity is expected to develop late morning and into the afternoon. Winds are expected to be S to SE 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Locally higher winds in thunderstorms possible. Localized MVFR/IFR cigs/vis possible this morning, especially in our northern zones. Sub-VFR conditions also possible where heavier shra/tsra occurs. && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through next week. Southeasterly winds today have been more on the moderate side with winds between 15-20 kt leading to the issuance of caution flags for the Gulf waters through Saturday morning. This extended period of onshore flow will lead to an elevated risk of rip currents going into the weekend, so be sure to take the proper precautions if visiting any Gulf-facing beaches. With winds elevated today and into early Saturday, offshore seas have already increased to 4-5 ft and may reach 5-6 ft overnight. Seas will then subside to around 2-4 ft Sunday and into next week. Daily chances for scattered showers and storms continue into early next week, and some of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and elevated seas. Batiste Beach conditions: Use extra caution this weekend as there is an increased risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches. Always follow beach flag systems, swim near a lifeguard and away from piers and jetties. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 75 92 75 / 50 10 40 10 Houston (IAH) 91 77 92 77 / 60 10 60 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 83 / 50 20 50 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Self MARINE...Batiste