Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 152025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23



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