Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 242041
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING IN FROM THE WEST...AS NICELY
DEPICTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS...AND THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS TO GORGEOUS WEEKEND
WEATHER. WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS SUBSIDENCE WARMS THE
MIDDLE LEVELS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND...WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WITHIN
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER
80F AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS WEEKEND. TOMORROW
MORNING WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN (INTERIOR 50S) WITH THE LOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS BEING REALIZED AS NEAR-SUNRISE PATCHY FOG OVER
MORE RURAL EXPANSES. AS RIDGING MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN WILL VEER ONSHORE AND AID IN
INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES. THUS...SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS
WILL BECOME MILDER AND A STRENGTHENED AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WIND
WILL REGULATE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON WARMTH BACK TO THE MORE NORMAL
MEAN LOWER 80S.

THIS PACKAGE IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ONE AS RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW CHANCE AT BEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
EARLY WEEK SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGHING. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE/FROPA IS MODELED
TO COME THROUGH WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE...MAYBE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN THE `RELATIVELY` HIGHER PWAT AIR MASS. NWP MODELING
HAS BACKED OFF ON MOISTURE WITH SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH PWS PROGGED
FOR MID-WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER -SHRA OR ISOLATED THUNDER
IF THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFFERED BY A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH OR ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A NEAR 1030 MB
MIDWESTERN HIGH TRAVELING DOWN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WILL STRENGTHEN
HALLOWEEN DAY`S OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EARLY DAY MODERATE
NORTHERLIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA/MARINE ZONES...WITH
A WEAKENING GRADIENT/WIND FIELD THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IF THE
TIMING WORKS OUT...IT APPEARS A BACKING DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER SPLENDID WEEKEND IN KICKING OFF THE MONTH OF
NOVEMBER. 31

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NITE AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS MAY WARRANT AN SCEC MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  87  62  86  64 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  86  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  81  70  82  71 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43



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