Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 010932 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING BEHIND
YESTERDAY/S WEAK COLD FRONT... WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FILTERING INTO NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO CLEVELAND LINE AS OF 4
AM CDT. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED YESTERDAY/S FRONT
ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION REMAINED ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR TODAY... A RELATIVELY DEEP COLUMN OF EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION. EVIDENCE OF THIS DRYING HAS BEEN DRAMATIC WITH
BOTH GPS-MET AND GOES SOUNDER DATA SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVING DROPPED ALMOST ONE INCH
/EARLY MORNING ESTIMATES AROUND 1.5 INCHES/. CONSEQUENTLY... MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF
YESTERDAY/S "COLD FRONT"... THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO MORE HEAT TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 INLAND. HOWEVER... LOWER DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN WHAT
SOUTHEAST TEXANS HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS /PEAK
VALUES IN THE LOW 100S ALONG THE COAST/. TODAY WILL STILL BE
HOT... BUT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SHOULD FEEL BEARABLE.

EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REMAIN QUIET
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAVE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S POSSIBLE
INLAND AND LOWS ALONG THE COAST NEAR 80. MORE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
RESUMES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE REGION AND HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED TODAY. ADDITIONALLY... CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION AND BUILD
THROUGH MID-WEEK... LEAVING SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH NO APPRECIABLE
RAIN CHANCES. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG THE
COAST AS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CONTINUE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 105 TO 107 RANGE LATER
THIS WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE RETURN.
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/S JULY
31 OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 8 THROUGH 14 OFFERS LITTLE HOPE FOR RELIEF
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED
FOR THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
BECOME 10-15 KNOTS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING TO THE WEST. THEN WINDS RETURN TO THE DIURNAL PATTERN OF 5-
10 KNOTS IN THE MORNING INCREASING NEAR TO AS SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND
THEN DIMINISHING BEFORE RESTRENGTHENING IN THE EVENING...THIS
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL MOST OF NEXT WEEK.  A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY AS POOLED MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF RETURNS AS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR MOST SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SOME PATCHY MIFG/BR POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN SITES LBX/SGR EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS SUNDAY BRINGING BACK IN SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG MONDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A ST DECK NEAR CLL NEAR
SUNRISE.
45

&&

.CLIMATE...
SETX ENDED THE MONTH ON A WARM NOTE. A NUMBER OF RECORDS WERE SET OR
TIED. BELOW IS A TABLE OF THE LAST 3 DAYS OF THE MONTH AND THE TIES
OR RECORDS FOR EACH DAY THAT OCCURRED AS WELL AS RECORDS FOR THE ENTIRE
MONTH.

T=TIED R=RECORD

          HIGH MIN TEMPS            HIGH TEMPS       MONTH
         29TH  30TH  31ST        29TH  30TH  31ST   OF JULY
CLL            79-T
HOU            81-T  81-R        100-T 101-R         81-T
GLS            83-T                     97-R  98-R

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  74  98  75  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              99  76  99  77  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            96  82  95  82  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE/CLIMATE...45



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