Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 271749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Currently having some showers and tstms affecting KCLL, KUTS,
KCXO, and KIAH. Have removed thunder for KIAH southward as it
looks like some stabilization has occurred after activity this
morning. However, it is possible for showers and tstms to
redevelop this afternoon and further amendments may be necessary.
Current thinking is activity should generally die down after 21Z,
with VFR conditions through the rest of the TAF period. Some
showers may develop along the coast tomorrow morning and move
inland throughout the day. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
Quick update to adjust PoPs based on latest radar trends. A few
showers and storms will remain possible across the coastal waters
through the remainder of the day, but the bulk of additional
shower and thunderstorm development today is expected to occur
north of Interstate 10 where drier air moving around an upper
level disturbance over northwestern Louisiana has limited cloud
cover over the northern two-thirds of the region. Additional
heating courtesy this cloud cover will prompt more convective
development this afternoon, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible through late afternoon. Morning soundings
from FWD, LCH, and CRP showed precipitable water values greater
than 2" and, while widespread heavy rain is not anticipated,
stronger cells will be capable of anywhere from localized 1-3
inch amounts leading to minor flooding issues. SPC mesoanalysis
does show limited environmental bulk shear to support storm
organization, but stronger storms will also be able to produce
some 25-35 MPH gusts as updrafts become water loaded and collapse.
Temperatures today will also be tricky, with a mix of cloud cover
and the scattered coverage of rain providing a range of high
temperatures from the mid 80s to low 90s.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

MARINE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting out
this morning over the upper Texas coast. Like the last couple of
days, thunderstorm activity should spread inland during the day.
Overall coverage of storms should be less today as moisture
decreases some and the upper level trough moves west. Winds this
morning are running about 15 knots from the south for much of the
Upper Texas Coast. Winds should decrease later today and tonight.
Light to moderate southerly winds should continue into the
weekend.

Seas will be lingering around 3 feet today but decrease some as
winds decrease for the end of the week. Tide levels will likely
remain near normal levels or maybe a half foot above normal.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      91  76  95  76  96 /  50  20  30  10  20
Houston (IAH)              92  77  95  77  95 /  50  20  40  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            88  83  92  83  91 /  70  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...11



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