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000
FXUS64 KHGX 141742
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE INLAND SITES AT 17Z. VFR CEILINGS AND
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND 00Z. TONIGHT THE MODELS DEVELOP
A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER KCLL AND NEARBY KUTS. FOR BOTH LOCATIONS
EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z AT KCXO
AND KIAH. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH VFR CEILINGS LOOKED MORE
PROBABLE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY 06Z. FELT CERTAIN THAT MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN WERE MORE LIKELY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ALREADY BUMPED INTO UPPER 60S TO 70 IN A FEW SPOTS.
INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY INTO SOLID LOW 70S EVEN WITH CLOUD
COVER. PRESSURE GRADIENT SEEMS TO BE INCREASING SO WINDS HAVE COME
UP AND WARM ADVECTION MAY BE STRONGER.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
RETURN FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR 50F DEWPOINT AIR TO MOVE INTO SE TX
AND ONLY EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS
TODAY SO REMOVED MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY. SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE SAT MORNING WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. WILL BE LOOKING MORE CLOSELY AT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL GIVEN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. EARLY THOUGHTS ARE THAT CAP MAY
BE TOO STRONG...MODELS MAY BE ERODING CAP TOO MUCH ESPECIALLY WITH
BULK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT FARTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
LOOKS MARGINAL AS WELL WITH MAYBE 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AS 12Z MODELS FINISH UPDATING.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  61  71  58  64 /  10  30  40  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  60  73  62  67 /  10  30  40  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  61  70  62  68 /  10  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...40