Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 020927
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
427 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER EARLY START FOR THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...LIKELY DE-
VELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. DID GO
AHEAD AND ADD A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY OF UNSETTLED WX
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVING UP THE
TX COAST THESE LAST FEW DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD A-
GREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE IN/AROUND THE MIDDLE TX COAST
THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN SLOWLY FILLING IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP CHC POPS IN UNTIL
FRI OR SO AS WE THEN EVOLVE TO A MORE DIURNALLY SEABREEZE DRIVEN
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. LONG-RANGE MODELS MAINTAINING A BROAD WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER PATTERN JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH ALSO LOOKS TO BE
WHY THEY ARE KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THIS TIME FRAME. OF NOTE IN
THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED FCST - A COLD FRONT MAYBE PERHAPS NEXT
FRI? WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS TOTALLY IN FAVOR WITH THIS THE GFS IS
NOT EXACTLY DISCOURAGING EITHER. ALSO THE TIMING IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
AHEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR COLD FRONTS IN SE TX (WHICH
IS SEPT 15TH). SO I GUESS WE SHALL SEE... 41

&&

.MARINE...
AGAIN COASTAL WATERS GETTING ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INLAND AS WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST WITH NOTABLE SPEED CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS INLAND. COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A LULL
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
NEAR 10 (OR LESS) THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS SPREADING INLAND PAST GLS/LBX/BYY AND SHOULD BE NEARING
SGR/HOU SOON. WILL LIKELY SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING FOR HOU SOUTHWARD SHIFTING TO IAH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
INDICATIONS OF A DECENT CLUSTER TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
APPROACHES TO IAH/HOU BETWEEN 14-19Z. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
ALSO HAVE AN AREA OF STRONG STORMS EAST OF IAH THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT OF THIS SOLUTION AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN DECREASING
AND CAN FIND ANY CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THE S/W IN THE MODELS AS OF
YET. VFR THROUGH TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH STORMS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  74  94  75  94 /  30  20  30  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  73  92  75  92 /  50  30  40  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  77  88  79  88 /  60  40  50  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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