Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 022034
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE
TO GENERATE PRECIP. STORM MOTION IS ON THE SLOW SIDE AND SOME
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ACTIVITY ENDING BETWEEN 700
AND 1000 PM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FEATURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EAST AND IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED...THE TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND GENERATE SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND WITH HEATING. SE TX
WILL LIE IN A WEAK RRQ LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT A BIT. THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER RATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PW VALUES AND THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO BE WETTER.
PARTS OF THE UPPER COAST WILL AGAIN RECEIVE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LEVELS WANE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ASSERT
ITSELF OVER TEXAS. 500 HEIGHTS BUILD TO 592 DM ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY
SO ONLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS
INCREASING TO THE MID 90S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE RIDGE SHOULD BE
JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL LOWER RAIN
CHANCES AND WEAKEN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. RESPONDING SEAS WILL FALL AND STAY BETWEEN ONE AND
SLIGHTLY OVER TWO FEET OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT GULF
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS...AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN...BUT GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL STAY AT OR
AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 31

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS RETURNED TO A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...AREAS TO THE NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE HAVE
REMAINED VERY DRY. MADISONVILLE HAS RECORDED ONLY 0.12 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE JUNE 22ND. CROCKETT HAS RECEIVED ONLY 0.67 INCHES SINCE
JUNE 22ND. SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA HAVE
KBDI VALUES OVER 700. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. CONTRAST THE
LACK OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH WITH THE COPIOUS RAIN OVER THE SOUTH.
GALVESTON RECEIVED 3.35 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. HOBBY AIRPORT
RECEIVED MORE RAIN THIS MORNING AND THEIR ANNUAL TOTAL IS NOW
53.82 INCHES OR 0.83 INCHES BEHIND THEIR 30 YEAR ANNUAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL (54.65 INCHES). PARTS OF BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...HARRIS
AND GALVESTON COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED 12 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
JUNE 22ND WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING DURING AUGUST. 43


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  92  75  94  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  75  93  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  79  90  79 /  50  50  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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