Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 301421

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
921 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are continuing to drift across
the offshore waters this morning. A few showers and storms may
develop inland this afternoon, but the bulk of the activity is
expected to remain offshore. No significant changes were made to
the previous forecast. Highs this afternoon are forecast in the
low to mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to mid 100s. 11



VFR. Most of today`s SHRA/-TSRA activity will be focused along
and south of I-10, or where the highest moisture and weak coastal
boundary reside. Another day of few-sct 030-050 cu/tcu with an
early day northeast-vrb breeze becoming more easterly then veering
southeasterly late in the day. Moderate chances for the return of
late period southern terminal light precipitation or isolated Friday
morning -TSRA. 31


Some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity has developed near the
coast early this morning mainly in and around the Galveston Bay area
and further off to the east across the Texas and Louisiana coastal waters.
Models continue to indicate more development near and along the coast
during the remaining overnight and morning hours with activity possibly
spreading inland during the day. Made little change to the area`s rain
chances with lower values inland and higher values near the coast and
offshore. Still expecting decreasing rain coverage heading into the
holiday weekend as mid/upper level high pressure builds across the area.
Besides the near zero rain chances, this ridge will also bring gradually
warming temperatures to the area into next week with highs working their
way into the mid to upper 90s while lows possibly struggle to fall under
80 degrees. Still anticipating daily heat index values edging upward
into a 100-110 degree range beginning on Sunday, and we`ll be closely
monitoring these values for possible heat advisories.  42

A near non-existent pressure gradient over the local waters, along
with a weak offshore boundary and any passing shower or storm`s gust
front, will maintain these current variable breezes over sub 2 foot
seas through week`s close. Lowering western Texas pressures, in
relation with eastern Gulf high pressure, will tighten the weekend
onshore pressure gradient. Gulf southerlies will respond in
strengthening to caution levels early next week. Weekend 2-3 foot
seas will pick up to 4-5 foot seas/slightly choppy bays by Monday
(4th of July) and maintain at least 3-4 foot average heights through
next week. Enough atmospheric instability exists to keep moderate
shower and storm chances in place through tomorrow. A dry weather
pattern will commence Saturday with near nil precipitation chances
as regional high pressure at all levels asserts itself through the
holiday weekend. 31


College Station (CLL)      94  75  95  76  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  76  95  77  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            90  81  91  82  91 /  30  10  30  10  20




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