Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230948
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
448 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Warming 850/700mb temps will likely inhibit much in the way of
precip today - especially for portions of the region west of
I-45. Continued southerly flow will persist and am not expecting
the current 75-79F dewpoints to mix out all that much. Warm temps
and high humidity will combine to produce some 107-109 degree
heat indices today...generally along and west of a College
Station-Edna line. Went ahead and issued a heat advsy for that
area this afternoon. Expect 103-107 indices further east.

A weak cool front is forecast to sag into se Tx on Saturday. PW`s
pool to 2-2.3" ahead of the front and 850/700mb temps diminish
whereas capping shouldn`t be much of a concern. Expect
showers/thunderstorms to increase in areal coverage with daytime
heating. With a general weakness situated aloft and light
steering flow, storm motions appear to be less than 7kt so
locally heavy rain appears to be possible. A second concern is
a possible collision of the seabreeze with precip along the front
during the afternoon - which would enhance rain rates & storm
strength where it occurs. Unfortunately this many times is close
to the metro area. Just something we`ll be watching...

Elevated moisture levels, a diffuse front, and a mid/upper level
weakness will linger into at least the early part of next week.
This should provide fairly good chances of shra/tstms each day,
most likely diurnal in nature w/ precip offshore at night
transitioning inland during the day. Same general setup, minus the
surface boundary and maybe not as much resident moisture, will
probably persist for the remainder of the workweek. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southerly winds should slacken some later this morning, but
6-7 foot seas will likely stick around for most if not all of the
day today and into tonight. For this reason, the Small Craft
Advisory was extended for the offshore waters through 3 PM this
afternoon with a SCEC in place after that lasting into tonight.
Winds and seas will continue to slowly diminish into the weekend,
with periods of moderate onshore flow and elevated seas returning
around midweek.

Tides are still elevated tonight with some possible coastal flooding
in the usual areas like Surfside, Blue Water Highway, and Highway 87
at 124 on Bolivar. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
these areas as high tide is approaching. Tide levels should come
fall below critical levels by mid morning. Astronomical high tides
will be above 2 feet the next few days. The good news is wind/seas
should gradually diminish, but we`ll continue to monitor conditions
for the usual spots prone to elevated water levels. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      96  77  90  73  87 /  10  20  40  40  40
Houston (IAH)              93  77  90  75  87 /  10  20  70  40  70
Galveston (GLS)            89  81  89  81  87 /  10  20  40  40  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for the
     following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...
     Jackson...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 PM CDT this
     afternoon for the following zones: Galveston Bay...
     Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 9 AM CDT this morning
     through this evening for the following zones: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for the
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 3 PM CDT this afternoon
     through this evening for the following zones: Waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$



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