Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 050933
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
433 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL HELP TO KEEP THINGS QUIET
ACROSS SE TX JUST A BIT LONGER. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FCST REMAINS
THE UPCOMING CHANGE WITH THE MESO SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND
THE RETURN OF RAIN CHCS TO THE REGION. THE ELEVATED RIDGING OVER
THE REGION (THAT HAS BEEN TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO ROBUST LOWS ON
EACH U.S. COAST) IS STILL PROGGED TO FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND AS THE
LOW OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. WHILE THE LATEST RUNS ARE IND-
ICATING A MORE NNEWD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS)
WE SHOULD SEE AREAWIDE POPS RETURN TO THE FCST BY MON AS THE IN-
CREASINGLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO DRAW DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE TO
THE WEST...AND PERHAPS THE SEABREEZE. AS FOR THE REST OF THE EX-
TENDED FCST...SRN STREAM JET NOT LOOKING QUITE AS ACTIVE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK BUT NOT COMFORTABLE WITH LOWERING POPS TOO MUCH
AT THIS TIME. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
STILL A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME INSIGNIFICANT MIFG AT
CXO/LBX AT SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MORE OF THE SAME...VFR. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AS WEAKENING FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE AREA. VERY DRY COLUMN THIS
AFTERNOON. FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE MORE SUNNY DRY WEATHER THEN PERHAPS
SATURDAY MORNING A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE FOR MIFG AT LBX AS MOISTURE
RETURN GETS UNDERWAY.
45
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TAP THIS MORNING AS W TO NW WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY LEADING TO FALLING SEAS
AND WINDS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY AND
INCREASES WITH PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WILL PROBABLY
NEED SCEC/SCA SATURDAY NIGHT. LENGTHY FETCH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND 15-25 KNOT SSE WINDS.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  57  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  58  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  70  79  70  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99



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