Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 111101
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
601 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT KCXO AND
KLBX COULD BRIEFLY GO MVFR RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT CHANCES
LOOK LOW. HIGH RES MODELS FOR THE MOST PART SHOW LOW COVERAGE. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOIST AXIS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
A LITTLE DRIER TO THE EAST. RIDGING AT 700 MB OVER THE NW GULF
WILL BE DRIFTING INLAND AND THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE INCREASING BUT NOT ENOUGH TO END RAIN
CHANCES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST PROFILE WITH LITTLE CAPPING
TODAY SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A
BRENHAM TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND LINE. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THERE BUT WHAT LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT EXISTS OVER THE SOUTH
IS LACKING TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE COMING DAYS AS 592DM HIGH OVER KS DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASING WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. WILL PUT LIGHT NW FLOW OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY PULLING A FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE STARTED NUDGING UP POPS/INCREASING CLOUD
COVER/COOLING DOWN THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TUE-FRI. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA TUE-FRI WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW TO
NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
BUT EXPECT CHANGES IN THE COMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE ON BOUNDARY
LOCATION INCREASES.
45

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE. ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN START TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  74  97  75  98 /   0  10   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  75  96  77  97 /  20   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  80  91  81  91 /  20   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...23


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