Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 241117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
with FEW-SCT cirrus around FL250-300. Light and variable winds
will gradually veer to the south and increase to 5-10 knots by
this afternoon as surface ridging over the eastern half of Texas
slides into the northwest Gulf. Onshore flow may result in the
development of low stratus early Tuesday morning, but model
guidance appears to be too aggressive with cloud development given
minimal moisture return during this time and have kept any MVFR
ceiling mention out of 12Z TAFs due to low confidence.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

Off to a cool start this morning with temperatures in the mid 40s
to mid 50s inland. At 4 am high pressure was centered near Bastrop
and should be sliding out into the Gulf this afternoon which turn
winds to the south and gradually increase this afternoon. Dry
airmass over the area will warm up quickly and by afternoon should
5 degrees warmer or so. Cirrus will also be drifting overhead with
sunny to partly cloudy conditions. Onshore flow increases
overnight and a weak s/w moving through Mexico should swing
through SETX Tuesday bringing an increase in high clouds and
southerly flow will tap into increasing dewpoints as max temperatures
climb a few more degrees. May have some patchy fog Tuesday
morning. Strong capping will erode somewhat on Wednesday as s/w
rotates through it stands expect greater chances for
rainfall across the northern areas where weaker cap should be
present but it may be strong enough to curtail rainfall all
together. A fast moving Pacific high slides through the state and
pushes the cold front off the coast Wednesday late afternoon or
more likely Wednesday evening. This fast moving system ushers in
a dry day Thursday but by Thursday night winds should have rapidly
come back around to the south as a potent storm system gets
organized in the lee of the Rockies. Strong onshore flow Friday
into Saturday will set the stage for very warm temperatures and an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms by Saturday
afternoon. The upper trough lifts up through the Plains and a cold
front sweeps through the region from west to east. Breezy
conditions Saturday and Sunday. May see some strong thunderstorms
and fairly generous rainfall between Saturday afternoon and
Sunday noon. As we get closer in time we should be able to narrow
down the timing of the weekend storms.

Light offshore flow across the waters this morning will
veer through the day as surface high pressure slides into the
northwest Gulf, becoming onshore later this afternoon and evening.
Caution flags may be needed as early as tonight as this flow
strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front that is expected to
reach Southeast Texas on Wednesday. Winds may periodically approach
advisory levels ahead of the front. Brief light offshore flow will
be possible Wednesday night as this cold front slides off the coast.
Onshore flow will quickly resume and strengthen Thursday as an upper
level disturbance results in the development of a surface low over
West Texas. Strong onshore flow should result in at least Small
Craft Advisories for the bays and Gulf waters late week into the
weekend and this onshore flow may strengthen enough for possible
gale force winds this weekend.

With the long southerly fetch in place across the western Gulf early
this week and again late this week, waves across the offshore waters
are expected to build into the 7-10 feet range at times. This fetch
may also result in coastal flood issues along Gulf facing beaches by
late this week.



College Station (CLL)      80  60  86  71  85 /   0   0   0  20  20
Houston (IAH)              82  62  85  73  85 /   0   0   0  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            77  70  79  76  80 /   0   0   0   0  10




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