Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201621
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1021 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SE TX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED OVER IL/KY. LOOKING AT AREA SOUNDINGS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WHICH
IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY CENTERS AROUND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR SO. OTHER THAN THIS EDIT...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AND
CURRENT FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO. 13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A MID-LEVEL INVERSION...WITH A
WEAKENING POST-FRONTAL NORTH WIND...WILL LIKELY KEEP REGIONAL IFR
DECKS IN PLACE THROUGH 15Z. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY...SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A NARROWING
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SPREAD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING MAY
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MVFR DECKS TO RE-FORM AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MAINTAINING VFR DECKS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
INCREASING WESTERN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT
NORTHEAST BREEZE. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND ALONG WITH A LOCATION OR TWO
OCCASIONALLY REPORTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK A BIT ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EDGES OFF TO THE EAST AND ONSHORE WINDS GRADUALLY COME BACK TO THE
AREA. SUNDAY`S HIGHS WILL GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES. ONSHORE
WINDS STRENGTHEN A LITTLE ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A NICE WARM UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE AREA`S NEXT COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...THEN A QUICK WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE
AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS COME BACK TO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT FRONT IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR THE LAST FULL WEEKEND OF 2014.  42

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT ENOUGH OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO ALLOW
CAUTION LEVEL (GULF) WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY...EASTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY VEER
ONSHORE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MIX DOWN STRONG NORTHERLIES THAT MAY EXCEED GALE FORCE IN GUST...AND
PICK FAR OFFSHORE SEAS UP TO NEAR 10 FEET...LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  43  59  48  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  45  60  48  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            57  51  59  53  67 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.