Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301731
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME -RA IN THE AREA...BUT NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
HAVE INDICATED ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE KEPT THE 18Z TAFS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL BE CHANGING AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS IN COMBINATION WITH A SLOW MOVING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA PROVIDE INGREDIENTS FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT AND ON INTO TOMORROW MORNING NEAR THE COAST...BUT BETTER
CHANCES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE...DO ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MORNING MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR CXO/SGR/LBX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE. SEEING SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER
BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTY ON THE HGX RADAR /ABOUT 11KFT ABOVE THE
GROUND/... WITH LITTLE OBSERVED ON THE GRK RADAR /ABOUT 4KFT ABOVE
THE GROUND/. MORNING AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HOUSTON DO SHOW A
STUBBORN POCKET OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 4 AND 16KFT ABOVE THE GROUND.
WHILE THIS LAYER IS LIKELY MORE SHALLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS A FEW OBSERVATION SITES OVER CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE REPORTED
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING... THIS DRY LAYER IS ALLOWING MOST RAIN
THAT DOES ATTEMPT TO FALL TO EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE
GROUND.

CAN/T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO... BUT MOST INLAND SITES WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY. ALSO SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CREEP INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AS MORE MOIST AIR /70+ DEW POINTS/ PUSHES TOWARDS
SHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z TO THE COASTAL WATERS BUT ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER PER SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE OVER WCNTL TX SHOULD CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE SRN PORTION OF A H5 TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTH TX. THIS TROF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE VICINITY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

RADAR IS CURRENTLY PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS NW OF THE CWA &
WOULDN`T BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS SEE A COUPLE OF
DROPS TODAY...BUT SUSPECT DRIER LLVLS WILL KEEP MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
AT A MINIMUM. SAME GOES FOR NEAR THE COAST REGARDING SEABREEZE
POTENTIAL. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY STILL SHOWING THE HIGHER PW`S
CONFINED OFFSHORE.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY RETURN BACK
INLAND LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK...PROVIDING THE BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN ESP TUE & WED. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/SEABREEZE WILL
MAINTAIN SLT CHC/CHC POPS BEYOND THEN...OVERALL CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF AXIS
MEANDERS EASTWARD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF/WHEN THIS SHIFT
OCCURS AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS
ON ITS EVOLUTION. 47

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE UPCOMING FCST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST HELPS TO MAINTAIN MAINLY LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE) S/SE
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SOME SUP-
PORT FOR ISO/WIDELY SCT STORMS DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME AS WELL.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  72  92  74  90 /  10  10  20  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  79  88  79  86 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42



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