Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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451
FXUS64 KHGX 281128
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
Expecting to see SHRA/TSRA development across Southeast Texas later
this morning and on into the afternoon hours, and 12Z TAFs reflect
this thinking with VCSH in the late morning and TSRA in the afternoon.
Some strong storms might develop too, and we might need to add some
wind gusts in future updates if some of the stronger activity gets
close to our sites. Activity should gradually quiet down this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Think VFR conditions will prevail
tonight through tomorrow morning.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
A moist airmass is in place across SE TX, and with heating it
will become quite unstable today. 2+ inches of precipitable water
is expected over the area and by mid-late morning expect sct
shra/tstms to develop and move S/SW. This afternoon the chc of
rain will increase to likely...especially across the NE 2/3rds of
the area. It is possible to see a few strong storms produce gusty
winds this afternoon and evening given the instability. Tonight
through Wednesday the band of higher moisture will gradually
shift S/SE and this will lead to a gradual lowering of pops from
north to south. Hard to find a SFC front off to the NE this
morning - there is slightly drier air in central AR. We will see
dw pts decrease some on Wednesday across northern portions of SE
TX as this boundary shifts S/SW and modifies,likely becoming diffuse
by Wednesday night.

The mid/upper level ridge centered over the 4 corners will build
to the SE at the end of this week and become centered over Texas.
This will lead to little chc of rain this weekend and above normal
temperatures. Expect this mid/upper level pattern to persist into
next week. 33

MARINE...
Light and variable winds and low seas will continue through the end
of the week. Higher winds and seas are possible through Wednesday in
and near showers and thunderstorms. An onshore flow is expected to
return to the area on Thursday but will not begin to strengthen until
Friday night or Saturday when low pressure over west Texas begins to
deepen. Moderate south winds and elevated seas will persist through
the holiday weekend, and caution flags might be needed.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      92  75  93  75  94 /  60  20  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)              92  75  92  75  93 /  60  40  30  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            88  79  89  80  89 /  50  50  40  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...33
Aviation/Marine...42



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