Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 040032
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 09Z. AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE CAP AND SO THE TALLER CU TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS RELAX THIS EVENING AND MIFG/PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AT CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. TOMORROW THE DEEP DRY
AIR MASS ALOFT SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION BUT LL DO MOISTEN UP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A REPEAT WITH A LITTLE STRONGER SE
FLOW DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE INCREASING OFFSHORE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY FOR TUESDAY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE...
RADAR REMAINS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES DECREASE A BIT
GOING INTO MONDAY SO RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING WARMER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MSTR INCREASES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX ON TUES/WED AIDING LIFT.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES
PEAK AROUND 1.7 INCHES SO FEEL HIGH END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL COMPETE WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. FEEL
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. 43

MARINE...
A TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN SEABOARD HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURES WILL GENERATE AND
MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS
FETCH WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION...POSSIBLY BRIEF OFFSHORE
ADVISORY...LEVELS FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERN
GULF HIGHER SWELL WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
TUESDAY AND PICK UP AVERAGE HIGH THIRD SEA HEIGHTS BY A COUPLE OF
FEET GOING INTO MID WEEK. PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  83  64  81  67 /  10  10  10  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  83  67  82  69 /  10  10  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  81  71  80  72 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45


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