Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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490
FXUS64 KHGX 292047
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A cold front has pushed through the area allowing for a nice
northerly breeze and drier airmass over SE Texas. Dewpoint
temperatures have dropped into the 50s to low 60s and with
temperatures in the mid/upper 80s, relative humidity levels are down
to 35 to 40 percent. With clear skies and light/calm winds tonight,
minimum temperatures should drop into the 50s most areas with 60s
along the coast.

Current upper level pattern has not changed much with a closed upper
low over the Ohio river valley and a ridge over the Rio Grande
valley. A similar pattern is expected tomorrow with good agreement
of the synoptic models. Upper level trough upstream over the Pacific
will begin to change the pattern over the weekend. As such another
dry day will be expected tomorrow with high temperatures in the low
80s. It should be a nice way to end the month.

Overpeck

&&

.LONG TERM...
Ridging will remain over the area through most of the long term
period, allowing temperatures to slowly rebound back into the
upper 80s to low 90s by Tue/Wed of next week. Pleasant weather
will continue across SE Texas until an upper level trough and
associated cold front approaches from the NW during the second
half of the week next week. Current thinking is that showers and
thunderstorms will reenter the forecast next Wednesday/Thursday
with the actual cold front arriving sometime in the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame.  11

&&

.TROPICAL WEATHER...
Matthew has become a category 1 hurricane despite a hostile
environment with wind shear across the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Matthew will continue moving west before turning to the NW and N
over the weekend. An upper level trough is still expected to develop
over the Gulf for the weekend and help move Matthew northward into
the western Atlantic. No impacts are expected for SE Texas.

Overpeck

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front passed through SE Texas today and will cause gusty
winds of 15 to 20 knots and seas of 3 to 4 feet overnight tonight.
Small craft should exercise caution. High pressure will build into
Texas tomorrow and winds will begin to relax as the gradient
weakens. The high will shift to the east on Sunday night and
onshore winds will return to the coastal waters Sunday night.
Onshore winds will strengthen and likely persist for the first
half of next week. Another cold front will cross the coastal
waters next Thursday or Thursday night.  11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION.../18Z TAF/
Surface analysis has cold front off the coast with northerly winds
behind it. Expect VFR CIGS next 24-30hrs with winds decoupling
overnight and remaining light on Friday.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      57  81  60  83  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              58  82  62  85  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            69  80  71  82  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 8 PM CDT this evening
     through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
     NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
     to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
     from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...39



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