Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291801
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
101 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY STALLING OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT IS A BAND OF LOW IFR/MVFR CLOUDS THAT COVERS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT THIS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SHOULD IMPACT THE
HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOOON AND CLEAR OUT BY MID
EVENING.

THE FRONT HAS NOT GENERATED ANY PRECIPITATION THUS FAR. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WEAK SEA
BREEZE AND THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP WILL BE
KHOU/KSGR SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE AFTN. THE FRONT WILL STALL
NEAR THE COAST OVER NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
NEAR KLBX AND POSSIBLY KGLS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 16Z/11AM CDT...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A
CLEVELAND...CONROE...BRENHAM LINE. CLOUD COVER INCREASES BEHIND
THE FRONT SO EXPECT SOME LOWERING CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
MIXING. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HOUSTON.
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THESE TRENDS BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE PULSE
TYPE WITH THE USUAL GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONTAL TIMING.
FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST BEFORE STALLING TODAY. REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH STRONGER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA
THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING. MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.

39/44

MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND MEANDER NEAR THE COAST ON THURDAY BEFORE GETTING A
SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT STRONGER WITH OFFSHORE WINDS PROBABLY REACHING
CAUTION CRITERIA BY FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESUME. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SUN AFTN AND BEYOND. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  79  57  73  46 /  10  10  20  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  79  58  75  49 /  10  10  10  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  76  66  75  59 /  20  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44



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