Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 212042
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THAT`LL BE MOVING INTO SE TX ON MONDAY IS NOW
APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION. SAT PIX SHOW SOME CU DEVELOPING
IN ADVANCE SO ADDED SOME LOWISH POPS ACROSS E/NE ZONES THIS
EVENING IN CASE WE SEE A FEW CELLS POP UP. EXPECT A MOSTLY QUIET
FROPA INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS MONDAY AS OVERALL CONVERGENCE/DYNAMICS
ARE QUITE MARGINAL. BUT AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE I-10
CORRIDOR LATER IN THE AFTN & EVENING AT PEAK HEATING...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL SEABREEZE AND/OR BAYBREEZE BECOMES A PLAYER AND
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES INITIATE SOME SCT
CONVECTION. THOUGH WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WX ISN`T EXPECTED...WE`VE
SEEN SEVERAL OF THESE SITUATIONS IN THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS WHERE
A FEW CELLS PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS & PRODUCE VERY LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD. PRECIP SHOULD PUSH S/SW AND OFF
THE COAST IN THE EVENING HOURS AS A DRY AIRMASS GRADUALLY FILTERS
IN.

DRY LLVL ENE FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN
THE GULF (STRETCHING FROM OFF THE TX TO FL COASTS) THRU THE WEEK. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR OFFSHORE THE DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
AND IF THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BEGIN WITHIN OUR 0-60NM FCST AREA
OR JUST BEYOND THAT. GFS SUGGESTS DECENT CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHEREAS ECMWF IS DRIER AND SUGGESTS BEYOND
60NM OFFSHORE. ONGOING FCST HAS GENERALLY BEEN TRENDED TOWARD
ECMWF AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THAT ATTM. 47

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL PICK UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. STILL LOOKING AT A PROLONGED
EASTERLY FETCH AFTER THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TIDE
LEVELS MAY BECOME ABNORMALLY HIGH AND LOW-LYING LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST COULD SEE SOME HIGH WATER PROBLEMS BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE AS THE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED HIGH TIDES GET TO
AROUND 2 TO 2.5 FEET AROUND THE TIME OF THE NEW MOON ON THE 24TH. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  92  67  87  63 /  20  30  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  92  67  88  64 /   0  40  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  89  74  86  73 /  10  30  40   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$


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