Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 042038
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SEA BREEZE MOVED INLAND EARLIER
TODAY. A MORE MOIST AIRMASS WAS REFLECTED BY PW/S UP TO AROUND 2.0
INCHES AS SEEN ON THE SPC RAP OUTPUT. IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...THE NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SHOWED WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION MOVING OVERHEAD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINATION
HAS GENERATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM
EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
EVEN SO...THE NAM12 AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A 15
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE AND MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.

THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE BUILDING
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS. THE GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT WERE
FORECASTING ACTUAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND
COUNTIES AS HIGH AS 99 TO 102 IN SOME PLACES WELL INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HEAT INDEX MAY REACH 103 TO 108 OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN MAY POSSIBLY EXCEED 108 FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
KEPT MENTION OF PCPN FOR MOST SITES FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN GIVEN
THE TRENDS. MODELS INDICATING THAT THESE HIGH PWS (JUST OVER 2") TO
PERSIST THRU TOMORROW AFTN SO WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF TODAY. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS NOTED FOR SOME SITES THIS MORNING. 41

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH AFTN FCST PACKAGE FOR THE MARINE ZONES AS
THE CURRENT WX PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. THE LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH DIURNAL VARIATIONS. ISO/WIDELY SCT POSSIBLE
EARLY TOMORROW GIVEN THE LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  97  79  98  79 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  92  83  91  83 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41


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