Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 272059
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND HOT LATE JULY DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 90S
UNDER A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S ARE PRODUCING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 104F RANGE SO THE
DISCUSSION OF EXCESSIVE HEAT HAS BEEN HELD AT BAY. THE SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD UPON A SLOW
SOUTHERN-ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE PINEY WOODS TOMORROW AND...WITH HEATING INTO THE LOWER 90S
...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. GUST FRONT BOUNDARIES...OR MAYBE EVEN A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH LEADING A SLUGGISH SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE DAILY INITIALIZATION OF DISCRETE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSING DOWN ALONG THE BACKSIDE
OF A LARGE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH/EASTERN EDGE OF GREAT BASIN
RIDGE WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS
THIS BOUNDARY LIES AROUND THROUGH MID-WEEK...NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AIR
MASS WILL POOL OVER THE AREA WITH LOWER 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
SPELLS DIURNAL-DRIVEN REPEAT PRECIPITATION EPISODES THROUGH LATE
WEEK. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY REAL STEERING FLOW...SLOW-MOVING
POCKETS OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LAY DOWN ENOUGH RAIN TO
INDUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHER THAN THE REGION (SANS
THE COAST) REMAINING AT NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL GOING INTO EARLY
AUGUST...THE UP SIDE WILL BE THE RELATIVELY LOWER TEMPERATURE
EXTREMA PER A WET GROUND AND OVERCAST SKIES. 31

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  74  94  74 /  10  20  30  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  77  95  77 /  10  10  30  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  89  81 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43


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