Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 221715
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1215 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS MSTR LEVELS ARE
A BIT HIGHER THAN PROGGED. WINDS ALOFT ARE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND
SOME MIXING IS BRINGING THE HIGHER SPEEDS TOWARD THE SFC. WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DEW PT DEPRESSION SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER THE SW ZONES AROUND SUNRISE.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
AN ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN PER THE SYNOPTIC
POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH. A BACKING VAD WIND PROFILE
WILL REGULATE HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THE VERY DRY SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AIR MASS HAS ON THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERAL MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW APPEARS TO FAVOR A CONTINUED EAST OR NORTH DIRECTION
THAT WILL MAINTAIN NEAR INCH PWATS OVER EASTERN TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...AMPLE SUN WITH ONGOING AVERAGE MID TO
UPPER 50 DEW POINT READINGS THAT WILL EQUATE TO SUB 50% AFTERNOON
RH`S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS EASTWARD THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/QUIET WX EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES UNTIL LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY
SEEING SCT ECHOES ON RADAR (LIKELY VIRGA) ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OVER WEST TX TRYING TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION. NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS (OVER SE TX) TODAY/TOMORROW. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE E/NELY LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN PLACE A BIT LONGER. PROGS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RETURN OF RETURN FLOW SUN THEN BECOMING MORE
ENTRENCHED BY MON. HOWEVER...STILL A BIT WARY CONCERNING REAL
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL MAYBE TUES.

THE MIDDLE/EXTENDED FCST MODELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH THE
TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE UPPER TROF. ECMWF WHICH HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A STRONG WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
SE TX HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT WITH THIS LAST RUN...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THE GFS WITH THAT REGARD. IT KEEPS A FLAT NEAR ZONAL/
SLIGHTLY SWLY UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...WITH THE ADDED BONUS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF(!?). DIFFERENCES ALSO NOTED WITH TIMING OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH TUES FROPA AND GFS
SLOWER WITH A LATE WEDS ONE. WILL SPLIT THE DIFF AND KEEP WITH 20%
POPS FOR BOTH TUES/WEDS ATTM. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  57  83  58  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  57  83  57  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  67  81  66  81 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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