Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 302004
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SCT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST...SO CENTRAL AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE SCT CONVECTION AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SO
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 100
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...UPPER 90S CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO
MID 90S COAST. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IN SW ARK. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE A
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHCS ARE TOMORROW. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY EXPECT SCT CONVECTION AGAIN WHERE PW VALUES ARE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL TAPER POPS UPWARD FROM THE NE TO SW AREAS OF
SE TX....BASED ON THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT EXPECTATIONS
ON FRI. BY SAT MORNING THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND SW
OF SE TX...SO RAIN CHCS WILL BE VERY SMALL AGAIN FROM SAT
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

NOT MUCH CHG EXPECTED IN MAX TEMPS...SOME VARIATIONS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS. FAR
INLAND AREAS ON SAT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TEMPS OVR 100 DUE TO THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EFFECT THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA
BREEZE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL RELAX AND
BECOME ONSHORE DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS POOL OF MOISTURE OVER LA AND GULF SLIDES
WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 44

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  99  75 101  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  99  77 100  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  92  82  93  82 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33



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