Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180542
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE HOUSTON TERMINALS AND
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT /ALTHOUGH NOT AS ROBUST AS EARLIER THIS
EVENING/... WITH TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY PERSISTING FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE A BIT TONIGHT BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY... WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY S/SE WINDS 7 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS/.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP IN WAKE OF BOWING MCS FINALLY
CLEARING THE AREA. SITUATION REMAINS ACTIVE WITH MOIST SW FLOW AND
MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINING OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED
TSTMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW AT LEAST.
FLASH FLOODING NOW GREATEST CONCERN WITH MANY AREAS INUNDATEDLATE
THIS EVENING...AND BAYOUS AND CREEKS RISING. ANY FURTHER RAINFALL
WILL CERTAINLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION. SURFACE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE
FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST...HOWEVER ELEVATED STORMS WITH RAIN
AND HAIL REMAIN A CONCERN. SVR TSTM WATCH THEREFORE WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG COAST AND ONE ROW OF COUNTIES INLAND THROUGH 07Z.
TORNADO WATCH FOR JACKSON AND MATAGORDA ALSO REMAINS POSTED
THROUGH 07Z AS THIS AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY LINGERING NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COAST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE AREA WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW.

EVANS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS SE TX EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECTING ALL
TAF SITE TO SEE TSRA WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE HOURS (23Z-04Z) AS THE STORM
COMPLEX MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY WITH
THE ACTIVITY...AND IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER TSRA. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD EXTEND PAST 04Z...ESPECIALLY
FROM IAH SOUTHWARD TO GLS. SOME STABILIZATION COULD OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOWARD MORNING...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  83  59  75  57 /  20  20  10  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  84  63  79  60 /  20  20  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  78  68  75  68 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...14



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