Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 270020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
720 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Precipitation beginning to wane this evening with the loss of day-
time heating. Expecting similar pattern tomorrow but with perhaps
slightly less coverage as the main moisture axis (+2.1" PWs) prog-
ged to shift slightly to the WSW. Also cannot rule out lower CIGS
and VIS during the overnight/early Wednesday morning hours...espe-
cially for sites that had rain. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / 343 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

The main challenge in the short term is handling convection
today, as a second round of showers and storms have developed this
afternoon following this morning`s rain, which resulted in street
flooding around the Houston area. Additionally, scattered showers
and thunderstorms in the north, though to not quite the same
impact as nearer the coast. Looking ahead, forecast challenges
will revolve around the future of the current weakness in the
subtropical ridge aloft, and its implications for precipitation
potential in the coming days, as well as temperature trends.

Rest of today through tonight...
Near the coast, cells continue to train near the boundary left by
the morning`s convection, impacting some of the same locations
that saw heavy rain this morning. This is likely to continue into
the early evening, with new cells triggering on or near new
outflow boundaries. This may give the radar a bit of an unzipping
appearance. Convection to the north, meanwhile, is much less
focused from the lack of convective boundaries from earlier. We
should see this round diminish in the early evening, but the
guidance seems to unanimously crank up the precip machine again
near the coast late tonight. Given the convection over the Gulf
and another max of precipitable water around/above 2 inches
upstream, it seems fair to buy into the scenario and have bumped
PoPs accordingly.

Wednesday through Saturday...
In most models, it appears that someone took a flyswatter to the
vort max associated with the incoming TUTT and splattered it all
over our coastal area. In association, the weakness in the ridge
aloft remains, leaving the Houston area in a col area between
ridging to the east and west. This likely will create a repeat
scenario tomorrow, particularly if we do see a focusing boundary
again. Storm motion should again be slow, and will result in
continued potential for localized storms with heavy rainfall. As
we march towards the weekend, heights will slowly rebound, which
should gradually diminish convective coverage and keep things
closer to the coast. Similarly, temperatures should gradually work
upwards in the coming days. Temperatures tomorrow are more
uncertain, as temperatures could be further suppressed by more
widespread convection as we saw today, but that influence should
gradually wane and see highs work closer towards seasonal averages
this weekend.

Early next week...
While a 594 dm ridge may manage to stretch across and bridge the
weakness currently in place, there is consensus in another
inverted trough working across the Gulf that will keep the ridge a
little soft, though specifics on timing are more uncertain. This
should keep temperatures near those seasonal averages early in the
week, but also allow for lingering precip chances driven by
diurnal trends. As this timeframe draws closer, growing confidence
may allow greater definition from day to day, but for now the
extended will keep PoPs close to a generic diurnal trend.
25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      76  94  76  96  77 /  20  50  20  30  20
Houston (IAH)              76  94  78  96  78 /  30  50  20  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            81  91  83  91  83 /  60  60  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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