Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260537
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF OF THE GULF AND A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL HELP DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE INLAND SITES
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE MODELS WERE ALSO INTRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS GENERALLY AFTER 17Z. THERE WAS ONE DIFFERENCE FROM THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z NAMBUFR WAS FORECASTING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CEILINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND FELT THAT THERE WAS A GOOD
ENOUGH CHANCE TO INTRODUCE VFR CEILINGS FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER
00Z. SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AS THE DEWPOINTS RISE
INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MOVE OVER THE FAIRLY COOL CONTINENTAL SHELF
WATERS NEAR THE COAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...INTRODUCED THE
POSSIBILITY TO THE KGLS SITE AT 02Z.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS STARTED TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE CRP AREA THIS
EVENING AND IS STILL ON TRACK TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. A WEDGE OF VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN A SHORTWAVE
IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE
TX/ LA BORDER TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL LIMITED
BUT LATEST HRRR RUN HAS A LINE OF SHOWERS FORMING THANKS TO THE
LIFT AND MOVING INLAND. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A
SATURATED LAYER UP TO AROUND 800 MB THOUGH. DUE TO THIS HAVE MADE
MINOR CHANGES TO POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME
SHOWERS FORMING THIS MORNING FROM THE SHORTWAVE. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MODELS ARE AGAIN SHOWING STREAMER SHOWERS AND CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. BESIDES MINOR CHANGES TO POP GRIDS FOR
THIS MORNING NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  70  60  64  42 /  10  30  40  60  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              52  72  63  72  47 /  10  30  50  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            59  70  64  70  53 /  10  30  40  70  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...40



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