Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260152
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
852 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 7 PM...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FAR NE SECTION OF
THE HGX CWA FROM ABOUT MIDWAY TO COLDSPRING TO ROMAYOR. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SW OVERNIGHT. DEW PTS ARE IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE LOW/MID 70S AHEAD
OF IT. STILL GETTING A FEW SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND
WILL CARRY CHC/SLT CHC OVERNIGHT BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS LINE OF STORMS.

AT 00Z...PW VALUES AT CRP WERE 1.59 BUT REMAIN NEAR 1.84 INCHES AT
LCH. SHV...BEHIND THE FRONT HAD PW VALUES AT 1.12 INCHES WITH A
VERY DRY PROFILE. 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH
TEXAS WITH A RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR FROM FWD TO SHV. AT 700
MB...THE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MSTR NEAR LCH. HIGH PRESSURE AT 250 MB WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH A WEAK 250 TROF AXIS OVER EAST TEXAS
EXTENDING SW TOWARD LAREDO.

WILL TRIM POPS FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND
OTHER VERY SMALL CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST IS
ON THE RIGHT TRACK. A PNS WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
RAINFALL AND PEAK WIND INFORMATION FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
QUITE A CONTRAST ACROSS SE TX WITH REGARD TO RAINFALL. HUNTSVILLE
RECEIVED 0.06 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. THIS BRINGS THEIR RAINFALL
TOTAL TO 0.31 INCHES SINCE JULY 1ST. MEANWHILE...HOBBY AIRPORT
PICKED UP 1.81 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY BRINGING THEIR AUGUST TOTAL
TO 10.76 INCHES OF WHICH 10.51 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE AUGUST
11TH. BUSH IAH HAS ONLY RECEIVED 2.94 INCHES OF RAIN IN AUGUST...
CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN HOBBY WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 30 MILES TO THE
SOUTH. MADISONVILLE DID NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY AND IT`S
RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE JULY 1ST IS ZERO. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO GROW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.  43


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
THE RAIN AREA WAS CLEARING THE COASTAL AREAS AT 23Z AND EXPECT
THESE TO BE AWAY FROM KGLS VICINITY BY 02Z AT THE LATEST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING EAST OF KIAH AND KUTS AT 2315Z...AND
EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BIG AIRPORTS AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 3 NM AND TO END BY
14Z. THE MODELS THEN BRING THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY TIME FRAME. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITAITON WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  95  68  97  68 /  30  10  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  95  69  96  71 /  40  10  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  90  78  92  80 /  50  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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