Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 012156
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. AT 3PM...THE COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED IN A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF COLLEGE STATION TO
JUST NORTH OF CROCKETT....WITH THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ORIENTED IN
A LINE FROM KINGWOOD TO EAGLE LAKE...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON CITY LIMIT. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
IS MOVING ALONG THE TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO HOUSTON.
MOST RECENT KHGX RADAR SCAN SHOWING SOME WEAKENING IN THE LINE OF
SHOWERS...BUT STILL EXPECTING THEM TO REACH THE COAST BY 6PM.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END...LIKELY BY 9PM TONIGHT.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID CLEARING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS TOO. AS OF 3PM...DFW IS AT 53
DEGREES F AND AMARILLO IS AT 40 DEGREES F. RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH STRONG CAA...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BEEN SHOWING 40-50 KTS OF CAA MONDAY MORNING...WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH.

A 1031 MB HIGH WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAKING FOR A
CHILLY BUT QUIET MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS STAYING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES NORTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIP OFFSHORE.

ON THURSDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE
GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS REACHING
THE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS.

A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.

13
&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT DISAGREEMENTS IN HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND
RESULTANT WIND GUSTS PRECLUDED UPGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A
WARNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG NONETHELESS...AND MARINERS ARE URGED
TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

THE FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO EAST TEXAS AND
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AROUND SUNSET...CLEARING THE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT... BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND
ALLOWS WINDS AND SEAS TO RELAX MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A PASSING DISTURBANCE
/PRESENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA/ INDUCES A COASTAL TROUGH
NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE GULF BY THURSDAY.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      35  49  35  57  44 /   0   0   0  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              39  51  36  55  45 /  10   0   0  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            42  50  43  55  47 /  40   0   0  60  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13


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