Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 122007
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
207 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP DRIVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER STATE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR FOG. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE FOG AREA LIFTING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST OF THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE NOT AS CONDUCIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFSBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK BETTER FOR MONDAY
THAN THE MODEL HAS SHOWN OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION OF PATCHY FOG FORMING ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL GO
ANOTHER FEW CYCLES AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL
RUNS.

40

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE MARINE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE-E AS THIS OCCURS AND
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD SWING RIGHT BACK TO THE SE SAT
NIGHT AND REMAIN AT MODERATE SPEEDS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST MON AFTN. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE REGION.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT
COULD BE A SET UP FOR A MULTI-DAY SEA FOG ISSUE - DEPENDENT ON
EVENTUAL WATER TEMPS AT THAT TIME. WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE LATER.
47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
REMNANT CIGS FROM EARLIER FOG WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS & MCLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF I-10 & WEST OF I-45 AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOISTURE
POOL AHEAD A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. SOME FOG
MAY BE DENSE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME 1500-3000FT CIGS TO FILL IN
AFTER 8Z AND PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SAT - WITH SOME
GRADUAL LIFTING IN THE AFTN HOURS. E WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE AS THE FRONT REFERENCED ABOVE BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47


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