Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 250920
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREA RADAR ARE A LITTLE MORE QUIET THAN 24 HRS AGO. STILL A FEW
SHOWERS OFF THE LA/TX COAST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST BUT NOT SHOWING ANY BOUNDARY FOR LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MAINLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST
OF SE TX. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER N.M.
INTO TX PANHANDLE AND SW KS. A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A SHEAR AXIS TRAINING BACK ALONG THE N GULF
COAST. THIS FEATURE IS WEAKENING AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND
THIS WEEKEND.

TODAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG ANY OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZE. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DO NOT
SEE ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE THAT MAY
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. ALSO NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
LOOK A LITTLE MORE STABLE WITH NAM SHOWING A BIT OF A CAP
DEVELOPING. THINK 20 POPS LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT AS THERE IS STILL 1.8
TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER BASED ON 00Z LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPANDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NW FROM TX INTO THE ROCKIES. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. ALSO LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST FEW DAYS BUT
SEEMS LIKE THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH SOIL MOISTURE TO KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM INCREASING TOO MUCH. FOR THE MOST PART KEPT TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS WHICH SEEM TO BE
DOING QUITE WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS SE TX BY TUE. COLD FRONT
SLOWLY BACK DOORS INTO THE AREA TUE/WED WITH IT BEING FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. FRONT FOR THE MOST PART STALLS NW/SE ACROSS THE AREA
BY WED WITH SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDED 30 POPS TO THE
FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH THUR AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT MOVER N TX INTO E TX. THE ECMWF FORECAST IS
MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH N TX INTO W LA ON THUR. OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HOLDS ONTO NW FLOW ALOFT SO THINK THE PATTERN
SETS UP NICELY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR GOOD MEASURE THE GFS SETS
UP A BAND OF 2-2.2 INCH PRECIP WATER ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
DECREASED A BIT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED
AND THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS COULD BE VERY EASILY BE
2-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST WHICH
IS NOTORIOUS FOR 100 DEGREE DAYS.

39

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  76  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  76  96  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  92  81  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38



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