Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 062149
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY WITH ONLY
A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BELLVILLE TO TOMBALL TO LIBERTY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE
PLEASANT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
ARE CONVERGING UPON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAPIDLY INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY LOOK QUITE WET WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY TUESDAY AS A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND UPON THE
EVENTUAL POSITION OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST
ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. 38

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS STILL 8 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BUT WINDS OVER THE WATERS HAVE
BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING SO EXPECT SEAS TO DO SO AS WELL. SCA
CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM FOR 20-60NM WATERS...MAY NEED A BRIEF SCEC
OFFSHORE THERE BUT IT WOULD PROBABLY ONLY BE FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS. RAINS RAMP BACK UP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ACTIVE
WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE/COASTAL TROUGH...MODELS HAVE TUCKED IT BACK IN CLOSER TO
THE COAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT IT IS PROBABLY STILL TO EARLY TO
KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE. MOST LIKELY WILL NEED A SCEC AS GRADIENT
PUCKERS UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...BUT AGAIN THE TRACK
MAY LEAD TO STRONGER WINDS AND NEED FOR AN SCA.

45

&&

.AVIATION... VFR. WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE WELL INLAND AND INTO
HOUSTON METRO AT 3 PM. OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING WITH CALM WINDS AND
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW.  HEADS UP...MONDAY MAY SEE IFR
CIGS WITH ABUNDANT RAIN BLANKETING THE TERMINALS FOR MANY HOURS.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      32  58  43  53  44 /   0   0  30  70  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              33  59  45  55  47 /   0   0  30  70  70
GALVESTON (GLS)            43  56  52  57  52 /   0   0  30  70  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38


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