Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 250453
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1153 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected. Winds should pick up by 15Z to 18Z
Thursday as the surface pressure gradient tightens. Breezy
conditions during the afternoon should then diminish during the
evening.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

UPDATE...
Minor changes to the forecast this evening, which consisted of
mainly adjusting temperatures and dewpoints to reflect most recent
observations. Clear skies tonight will help to bring our low
temperatures down into the lower 70s along the coast, to low-mid
60s farther inland. Sunny skies will prevail for your Thursday,
with model guidance and forecast sounding analysis bringing high
temperatures back into the upper 80s and lower 90s across SE TX.
Moisture tomorrow will also begin to build back in, with
dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s by late afternoon, but do not
expect PoPs to return to the forecast until late this weekend.

Hathaway

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through Thursday afternoon. Winds may stay
up a bit, but expect light winds by around 02-03Z time frame.
Winds should pick back up mid to late morning Thursday with breezy
conditions Thursday afternoon.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery nicely depicting the surge of drier air rushing
into the state in response to ridging filling the void of the
northeastern-exiting upper low moving up into the Ohio River
Valley. At the surface...high pressure centered over the lower Rio
Grande is creating a brisk northwest wind with overall subsidence
keeping skies mostly sunny and warming this afternoon`s temperatures
into the lower 80s. This resident post-frontal drier air mass will
begin to moisten up by sunrise tomorrow as offshore flow transitions
to onshore. A near-zonal upper air pattern will maintain westerly
mid-level steering winds leading to a continued relatively dry
atmospheric column through early Friday...then steering flow will
turn around to the south-southeast around a northern Gulf mid-level
high. Status quo weather through the end of the week...no precipitation
forecast and the diurnal temperature curve will best-fit the climate
trace.

The gradual breakdown of upper ridging centered over the western
Gulf through the weekend will equate to a partially cloudy Saturday
becoming mostly overcast by Sunday afternoon. After a couple of
late week warm and muggy days in the upper 80s to lower 90s/mid
to upper 70 mornings upper troughing moving across the central
Plains Sunday into Memorial Day will open the way for a series of
passing shortwave disturbances. A weak and (becoming diffuse)
surface boundary will sag into the area over the holiday and this
may provide the needed lower to mid level focus for periods of
inclement weather. Depending upon the passage of the aforementioned
shortwave disturbances/troughs...a scenario similar to the one we
just experienced yesterday could unfold on (or around) Memorial
Day. Model soundings look ripe for thunderstorm development to
quickly evolve into strong or severe early next week. While the
shear improves through Wednesday...Memorial Day`s thermodynamics
are impressive (1.5K to 2.5K J/kg CAPE...6-8 deg C/km 0-3 km
lapse rates leading to high lifted indices) with higher K indices
support more areal storm coverage. Overcast and a more active
convective pattern Monday through Wednesday will regulate
temperatures to slightly below normal values. 31

MARINE...
Light north winds will become light southerly by sunrise. Onshore
winds will quickly strengthen during the day as the pressure gradient
tightens in response to developing low pressure in the lee of the
Rockies. A moderate onshore flow will prevail through the weekend
with low pressure over West Texas and high pressure over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A SCEC may be required at times through
the weekend. A weak cold front will approach SE TX Sunday night
and the gradient over the water will relax and winds will begin to
decrease on Monday. A lighter onshore flow is expected for the
first half of next week. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      82  61  90  73  91 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              84  62  90  74  89 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            84  71  85  78  86 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...08
Aviation/Marine...40



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