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000
FXUS64 KHGX 280455
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A mid/upper level trough over the Four Corners should fill NE across
the Plains this evening. The tight gradient and 30-40 knot LLJ
should continue to bring windy conditions across SE Texas overnight.
Expect winds to be south/southeasterly around 15-25 mph with gusts
of around 25-35 mph. Therefore, a Wind Advisory will remain in
effect for most areas south of the I-10 corridor through 7 PM CDT
Tonight. For the barrier islands east of Freeport, the Wind Advisory
will remain in effect until 7 AM Sunday. Persistent onshore flow
with ample moisture and cloudy skies should keep lows for Sunday
morning in the 70s across SE Texas.

A cold front/dry line associated with the aforementioned upper level
system will approach the Brazos Valley late Sunday morning. As it
nears our area, the pressure gradient will weaken, reducing wind
speeds & gusts. Isolated storms should begin to pop up during the
afternoon ahead of this boundary. During the late afternoon/early
evening, guidance indicates a more cohesive line/cluster of
thunderstorms developing along a weaker boundary, tracking E/SE
overnight. The environment for these storms still appears to be
fairly potent. ML CAPE values during the late afternoon rise to
around 2100-2800 J/KG in areas east of I-45, in excess of 3000 J/KG
in areas to the west. LIs peak around -6 to -10 Deg C, with mid
level lapse rates ranging from 6.5-8.5 Deg C/km. ML LCL heights will
be under 1000m. Effective shear (EBWD) will range from 35-45 knots,
with 3 km SRH ranging from 100-250 m2s2. PWs remain near 1.6-1.9
inches.

Currently SPC has areas north of the I-10 corridor under a Slight
(level 2/5) Risk of severe weather on Sunday, with the remainder of
SE Texas under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk. These storms appear to
take on more of a discrete storm-mode, capable of producing all
severe weather hazards. Damaging winds and large hail remain the
primary hazards, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

These storms will also be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall. WPC has the northern third of our CWA under a Slight
(level 2/4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Sunday, with areas to the
south partially under a Marginal (level 1/4) Risk. Rainfall totals
through Monday morning are expected to range from 0.5"-2.25" with
locally higher amounts up to 4" possible with any slower-moving
storms.

The severe weather & heavy rainfall threat should decrease overnight
as the boundary pushes further south, displacing these storms
further from the upper level trough, reducing the already weak
forcing aloft. This weak/diffuse boundary should slow/stall out
around the I-10 corridor, through conditions will still be fairly
warm/humid across the region Monday Morning.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast as
a series of disturbances/impulses/shortwaves move across the state
in a generally west to southwest flow aloft while onshore winds
remain in place. Enough instability could persist on Monday for
possible strong/severe storms (Marginal Risk on SPC`s Day 3
Convective Outlook) and locally heavy rain (Marginal Risk on WPC`s
Excessive Rainfall Outlook). For the rest of the period, could see
shower/storm development almost any day with better chances
generally across our northern counties. High temperatures will be in
the 80s and lows will be mainly in the 70s. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR ceilings are still expected overnight as a low stratus deck
forms over the region. Winds remain gusty from the SSE in the
15-25kt range. Ceilings are expected to rise throughout the day
on Sunday. Thunderstorms to the west of us will likely decay
before reaching the region, but might still bring scattered
showers in the early morning. Most significant weather is expected
in the afternoon and into the evening as daytime heating, upper
level disturbances, and lingering boundaries initiate widespread
thunderstorm activity. There is still some uncertainty, but latest
model guidance indicates convection firing off in the early
afternoon in the CLL, UTS, and CXO area. They are expected to
become more organized and migrate to the Houston and coastal
terminals around 2-7Z. Localized severe storms are possible, with
strong potential for intermittent heavy rain, reduced vsbys, and
strong winds.

CJ

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Moderate to strong onshore winds (15 to 25 knots with gusts >30 knots)
and elevated seas (10 to 12 feet offshore) will continue through the
weekend. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Sunday. Minor
coastal flooding is possible in vulnerable locations at times of high
tide. Rain chances increase on Sunday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
persisting into Monday. Winds will gradually decrease late Sunday into
Monday, with lingering high seas keeping conditions dangerous to small
craft through Sunday night. Though more moderate, onshore flow will
persist early next week. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  82  69  85 /  10  80  70  20
Houston (IAH)  74  84  70  85 /  10  50  60  60
Galveston (GLS)  73  80  72  80 /   0  40  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ214-
     313-337-338-437>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ437>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Sunday night for GMZ350-
     355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$