Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 240955
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMER ON THE ISLAND FOR LOWS
ALL WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING BUILDS EASTWARD AND OUT INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY TURNING WINDS ACROSS SETX TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING NOTICEABLY ON MONDAY...MAY EVEN APPROACH
BREEZY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOISTURE
RETURNS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY
INCREASING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLOW
AND STALL OVER N TX KEEPING SETX IN WAA WITH WEAK S/W FORCING TUE
AND WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY BY THIS POINT
WEDNESDAY WITH ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AS UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND BLEND IT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE REGION ON FRIDAY SETTING
US UP FOR A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AROUND THE 1ST OF NOVEMBER.
45


&&
.MARINE...

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS... WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL ENCOURAGE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
EVENING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE GULF. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION TO GENERATING BUILDING SEAS... STRONG WINDS MAY WARRANT AN
SCEC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

14
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  58  85  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  54  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  64  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14



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