Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 170253
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
953 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
VERY BUSY EVENING AS ADVERTISED. CATEGORICAL POPS IN ORDER THROUGH
MID NIGHT AREA WIDE...OUTSIDE OF THE COAST/SWRN COUNTIES BEHIND
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES
PRIMARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ESTABLISHED ROUGHLY ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF I-10 WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S/ IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. SPC HAS TORNADO WATCH
IN EFFECT AS ACTIVITY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT INGESTS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR AIR. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPIN UPS UNTIL THE WARM SECTOR ITSELF
BEGINS TO CAP OFF LATER TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE FEED OF MOISTURE WILL
SUSTAIN THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY ACTIVITY AREA WIDE.
CURRENTLY FFA IS CONFINED TO THE WARM SECTOR WHERE MOST ABUNDANT
FEED OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONFINE THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.
HOWEVER FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN AREA WIDE GIVEN THE EVENING
RAINFALL ACROSS SOME NRN AREAS. THUS...FEEL FFA IS WARRANTED
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND WILL EXPAND. WITH
ANOTHER POSSIBLE LATE DAY/EVENING MCS...FFA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN LATER FORECASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY/SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
BE ENDING THROUGH 02-03Z...WILL HOLD ONTO VCTS/TSRA FOR MOST TAF
SITES AS CONVECTION WANES. BASED ON HRRR TRENDS MAY KEEP SOME VCSH
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT IF ANYTHING RE-DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH ON THIS SO ANTICIPATE AMMENDING TAFS TO REMOVE
CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BASED ON WRF-ARW/TX TECH WRF AND EVEN
SUPPORTED BY GFS...EXPECT LARGE MCS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
EVENING SO ADDED MENTION OF VCTS FOR TAFS. STILL TIME TO WORK OUT
THESE DETAILS AND LIKELY BE FOCUS OF 06Z TAFS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  78  66  79  63 /  90  70  60  50  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  79  67  80  64 /  90  70  60  50  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  77  70  76  69 /  70  60  60  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48



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