Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 211551
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1051 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PER TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND THINGS ARE DRYING
OUT ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM AS THE CUR-
RENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW INDICATING LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
TONIGHT. THESE WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE FAR LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. AT 250 MB BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE RAP PERFORMED
PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY AND SHOWS ALMOST NO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EXCEPT FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO IN SAN JACINTO AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL MAPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
MAKES SENSE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND POSITION ITSELF
NEAR THE ARKANSAS/ LOUISIANA BORDER ON FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RELATIVELY
LOW PWAT AIR IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A CAP IN PLACE AT
850MB. ON MONDAY THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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