Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011629
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1129 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE INCREASING POPS FOR PART OF THE AREA TODAY AS TSRA ACTIV-
ITY BEGINS SETTING UP IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN. WHILE THE SEABREEZE
LINGERS NEAR/ALONG I-10 THIS AFTN...WILL BE KEEPING A VERY CLOSE
EYE ON STORMS JUST TO OUR SW. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS PCPN COULD HELP
ENHANCE/INCREASE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX LATER THIS AFTN/EVE...IN-
CREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. AT
THIS TIME THINKING THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG/NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE COAST. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL /WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE HOUSTON
METRO RECEIVING 3 TO OVER 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS/ HAS ALLOWED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS OF
3 AM CDT THIS MORNING... A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED FOR JULY 1. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND A LARGER COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE SOUTH
TOWARDS TAMPICO...MEXICO.

THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS AND WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
TODAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE /4 KM NCEP WRF...ARW...NMM/ MOVES THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE
RAP AND THE NAM12 SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THEIR SOLUTIONS OFFER
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TROUGH... AND THIS WILL BE
THE BIG DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHETHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS
FEATURE.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE AS WELL AS 00Z UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING EASTERLY
STEERING WINDS /AWAY FROM THE REGION/... THINK THE TROUGH AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH IT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY HOWEVER... ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD REACH THE
REGION AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW /SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS/ AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST
BASED ON TRENDS.

DESPITE ALL THAT... GIVEN SOME WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY AROUND 86 TO 89 DEGREES... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MARINE... COASTAL... AND INLAND ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK
20-40 POPS COVERS THIS WELL AND ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY /BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/. OTHERWISE... HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT IN TO
FRIDAY... WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK...
WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING TO BE ON TAP FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  92  76  92 /  40  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  76  93  76  93 /  50  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  89  81  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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