Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281536
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1036 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. AT 10 AM THE FRONT
WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR PARIS TO FORT WORTH TO JUNCTION. THIS
POSITION WAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO ITS 7 AM POSITION. THE 12Z AREA
SOUNDINGS SHOWED A FAIRLY LARGE CAP IN PLACE. THERE WAS A MOISTURE
CHANNEL OVER THE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF SAN LUIS PASS. CONTRIBUTING
TO THE CAP WAS A SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SE TX
FROM THE EAST. THERE WAS SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT FOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT MAY DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE NAM12 FORECASTS THE BEST JET
STRUCTURE AND LIFT TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THE MOISTURE CHANNEL
WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

40



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A FEW SPOTS BUT OVERALL MOST TAF
SITES REMAIN VFR. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A GENERAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS TODAY WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.50 INCHES
OVERNIGHT. ADDED VCSH FOR KCLL AND KUTS FOR LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER
SOUTH...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MSTR LEVELS ARE DEEP ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 12Z. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...DRAWING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE TOWARDS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD
FRONT WE/VE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTH AND HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR AS OF 0845Z DEPICTED THE FRONT DRAPED FROM ROUGHLY
MIDLAND TO ABILENE TO NORTH OF THE D/FW METROPLEX INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING DEVELOPED
ALONG IT NORTHEAST OF THE D/FW METROPLEX. CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OVERNIGHT WEATHER HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND LOOKS TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE /6 HOUR CHANGES AROUND 1-2 MB/ AND THIS WEAK FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT. BY THURSDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AND A
PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
RETURN BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS...THIS FRONT WILL MAKE THE WEATHER
ON HALLOWEEN A TREAT...NOT A TRICK. FOR THOSE CURIOUS...HALLOWEEN
EVENING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60/S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE /AND PLEASANT WEATHER/ IN PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF TO THE EAST... INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS...COUPLED WITH MOISTURE DRAWN IN FROM A POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST... WILL AID RAIN CHANCES AS
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES BY MID-WEEK. WHILE STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT...IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES /WHICH COMPARES FORECAST VALUES TO
CLIMATOLOGY/ INDICATING SOME ABOVE NORMAL PWATS FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO SEE WHAT
NEXT WEEK/S SYSTEM WILL MEAN IN TERMS OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

14/MH

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY STALL NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
GETTING A SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BUT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN EARLIER PROGGED. THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST
ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUN/MON. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  64  78  58  79 /  10  20  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  66  81  62  78 /  10  10  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  70  79  68  76 /  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47



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