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000
FXUS64 KHGX 080132
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014


.AVIATION...
S/W NEARING BIG BEND REGION AT 00Z IS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SC NEAR THE COAST AND THICKER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
EXPANDING INLAND IN WAA PATTERN. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SETX
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. LL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING SO EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
VISBY RESTRICTIONS WITH SMALL T/TD SPREADS AND WAA MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN 3 AND 6 MILES AT MOST SITES. SHALLOW LIFT SHOULD HELP TO
DEVELOP PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND ORDINARY RAIN DURING MAINLY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE FRONT NEARS CLL 21Z OR SO SOME SHALLOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE
REGION LOOKS TO STAY CAPPED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA. WINDS
BECOME N OR NW POST FRONTAL AND LITTLE IF ANY DRYING IS EXPECTWITHTHE
EXPANSIVE ENTRANCE REGION THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION
SO EXPECT THE RAIN TO CONTINUE WITH IFR OR LOW END MVFR CIGS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM THREAT INCREASES
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY BUT JUST ORDINARY GARDEN VARIETY TSRA. SOME SEA
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING AND INCREASING GOING INTO
MONDAY WITH A SATURATED EASTERLY FETCH. 45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WARMED INTO THE MID 60S MOST INLAND SPOTS
AND AROUND 60 AT THE COAST. THERE WILL NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF COOLING
TONIGHT WITH THIS ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE AND GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS
(LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S UP NORTH AND THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST).
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT MEANS GRADUALLY RISING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TOMORROW.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP DURING THE DAY BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (DON`T FORGET TO CHANGE
THOSE CLOCKS FOR DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME). A COOLER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED AS A STORM SYSTEM (MID/UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST AND SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST) BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE AREA`S MONDAY/TUESDAY FORECAST IS GOING TO DEPEND A LOT ON WHEN
AND WHERE THE MID/UPPER LOW AND ITS SURFACE FEATURES EJECT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY MAINLY CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND COASTAL
AREAS. IF EVERYTHING GOES AS PLANNED...THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THIS MESS HEADS OFF TO OUR EAST AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT (THIS ONE DRY) SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  42

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO PULL TOWARDS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL OUR NEXT FRONT WHICH IS
SCHEDULED TO PUSH OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH WINDS UP TO JUST
AROUND CAUTION CRITERIA SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE WATERS
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PULLS OFF TOWARDS THE EAST. TONIGHT WINDS WILL PICKUP A BIT AS THE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE
WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION FIELDS OF NAM12/ SREF AND GFS SHOWING FOG
POSSIBLE. THINKING OF CURRENT IS THAT WINDS WILL KEEP FOG AS
STRATUS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE GOT SOME TEMPORARY
RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES. SATURDAY MOSTLY MVFR CIGS LOOKS
LIKELY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORT LIGHT DRIZZLE AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  66  42  55  44 /  10  50  50  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              52  68  48  56  47 /  10  30  50  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  65  52  58  52 /  10  20  50  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45