Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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708
FXUS64 KHGX 012356
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 21Z HAD SEVERAL BOUNDARIES OVER SE TEXAS WITH
THE MOST NOTICABLE ONE HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG IT NORTH
OF KIAH. RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST ACROSS GALVESTON BAY WHICH HAS PUSHED THROUGH KHOU/KSGR AND
LOWERED CEILLINGS TO IFR. EXCPECT CIGS TO BE MORE MVFR OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WITH CONVECTION AND
WILL BE AMMENDING TAFS ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR NEXT
6-12 HRS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION BUT THE HRRR AND GFE SEEM TO GIVE A GENERAL IDEA. BASED
TAFS ON BOTH MODELS EVOLUTION...MAINLY HRRR FOR SHORT TERM AND GFS
FOR LONG TERM TRENDS. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. COULD HAVE CIGS BECOME VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OVERPECK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  56  76  54 /  40  40  20   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  78  60  78  56 /  70  60  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            72  78  66  78  64 /  70  60  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...GALVESTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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