Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291602
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT AS LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT ERODING QUITE AS
QUICKLY AS FORECAST. DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE
WITH HEATING AND SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS. 12Z CRP SOUNDING SUPPORTS
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S SO TWEAKED TEMPS OVER THE W-SW ZONES FOR
THE AFTN. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1115 AM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
A COUPLE OF AVIATION HAZARDS WILL START OUT THE MORNING...FIRST
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT THE INLAND SITES THROUGH ABOUT
15Z OR SO. ALSO...A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HAS LED TO A STRATUS DECK
TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA SITES. AS
THE DECK SCATTERS OUT AROUND OR AFTER 15Z...MIXING WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE WINDS GUSTING FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE INLAND
SITES.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP -- BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AND THERE WILL BE A REPEAT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SOME OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AS WELL WHERE DW PTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST CONCERNING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HAVE
TRENDED THE PRECIP FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH DEPICTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE W/SW AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...THEN SHIFTING
E/NE ON WED EVE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WED ACROSS SE TX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF PRECIP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SE TX AND SUPPORT A CHC
OF RAIN THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. 33

MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF FREEPORT WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL DATA
DIMINISHED THE WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  62  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  81  63  81 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  66  76  66  76 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43


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