Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 172144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
344 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

...and so it looks like the HRRR/WRF were indeed correct with the
second round of storms for the afternoon. Some rather robust TSRA
were noted over the coastal waters, with development noted as far
north as DWH/IAH. This activity is expected to move out of the FA
at/around sunset. Clearing skies/light winds and wet grounds will
help with the development of patchy fog overnight.

Upper ridging and strengthening onshore winds should translate to
near 80 high temperatures tomorrow and Sun. There could also be a
small window on Sun where we have favorable conditions for the de-
velopment of sea fog over the bays/nearshore waters.

Otherwise, all eyes appear to remain focused on the potential for
heavy rain late Sun into Mon. GFS still running a bit faster than
the other global models with the 12Z runs, but hesitant to make a
lot of changes with the ongoing forecast timing (with the bulk of
the activity for SE TX on Mon). ECMWF/Canadian guidance have been
consistent...and generally prefer the slower solutions with these
systems from the SW. That being said, progs of very high PWS when
combined with the deep/strong southerly inflow and the forecasted
track of the upper low itself are supportive of heavy rains devel-
oping/moving across SE TX late Sun through late Mon afternoon. At
this time, we will be going with average rainfall amounts of 2-4"
(based on coordination with WPC/local heavy rainfall matrix). All
of this is, of course, subject to change as we move ahead.

We should be clearing out by Mon night/early Tues, with quiet/dry
weather and above normal temperatures the rest of the week. Exten-
ded models hinting at a cold front for next Fri (or thereabouts).


An upper level disturbance is in the process of moving across the
northwest Gulf of Mexico. This is causing showers and thunderstorms,
some strong to severe over the Upper Texas Coastal waters. Storms
are acting to enhance winds and seas in the area. Overall low winds
and seas are expected tonight as the system exits.

Winds and seas do increase over the weekend primarily Sunday into
Monday as another upper level disturbance moves into the area. A
long fetch of southeast winds should develop and help build seas
Sunday night into Monday. Small craft advisories may be required
during this time. After the disturbance pushes by, a cold front will
push off the coast allowing for offshore winds on Tuesday.

Tide levels may push higher over the weekend especially Sunday night
and Monday. Tide levels may become about a half foot above mean
lower low water.



College Station (CLL)      56  82  64  79  62 /  10  10  10  40  80
Houston (IAH)              59  82  66  79  66 /  10  10  10  30  70
Galveston (GLS)            62  73  66  75  66 /  20  10  10  20  60



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