Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 242028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Onshore winds have slowly become more easterly this afternoon, as a
front pushes in from the north. Still continuing to monitor a
few showers straggling along the coast and also in Washington
County. Based on short time guidance, the best chance for possible
showers to develop tonight would be in the northern counties of
the CWA. Although, after the convection we saw earlier today
thinking that conditions have stabilized, which would put a
damper on the chance for wide spread development tonight. If this
pans out, PoPs will need to be lowered for the overnight period.
Conditions will definitely remain muggy, with forecast soundings
keeping PWs between 2.0 to 2.25 inches through Sunday morning, and
by late Sunday lowering to around 1.90 to 2.0 inches. With
convective temperatures remaining in the low to mid 80s over the
weekend and with such a saturated airmass lingering over SE TX,
the ingredients are there for shower and thunderstorm

Tomorrow, precip will most likely develop near leftover boundaries
from today as well as along a weak sea breeze that could push
onshore by late afternoon as we approach max temperatures. High
temperatures for Sunday through Tuesday will reach up into the mid
to upper 80s. There are also some higher values of vorticity that
will move across the region in the upper levels, that could help to
provide some lift first on Sunday afternoon and again late Tuesday.
Still low confidence in the timing and location of exactly where
this precip will end up over the next few days as most of the models
lack agreement in the locations of development.

SE TX remains centered between two upper level high pressure systems
through next Friday. Expecting winds to remain out of the east until
Wednesday, and then we will begin to see a return to onshore
flow. PWs will be lower by Wednesday with PoPs also lowering, as
an area of surface high pressure begins to move in from the east.
Therefore, max temperatures will be on the rise by late next week,
reaching into low 90s across much of SE TX.



A weak outflow boundary may result in a few showers and
thunderstorms across the nearshore waters this afternoon with a
brief period of offshore flow possible in its wake. Otherwise, light
to occasionally moderate east to southeast flow is expected across
the coastal waters through mid-week and this will help keep tide
levels 1-1.5 feet above normal over the next few days. In addition
to elevated tides, east to southeast flow will help promote an
increased risk for rip currents. A Beach Hazards Statement is in
effect through tonight for these strong rip currents and additional
Beach Hazards Statements may be needed at times through early next
week for elevated tides producing wave run up along Bolivar
Peninsula and increased rip current risk.

Lee troughing over the High Plains will result in onshore flow
strengthening to caution or possibly advisory criteria mid to late
next week.



College Station (CLL)      73  87  72  88  72 /  50  50  30  40  20
Houston (IAH)              75  89  73  87  73 /  40  50  40  50  20
Galveston (GLS)            79  86  78  85  78 /  30  40  40  50  40




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