Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 270433
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1133 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Anticipate mainly VFR conditions during the overnight hours.
Temp dewpoint spread is narrowing and may see some patches of fog
develop should cirrus thin/clear for a long enough period, but
not expecting widespread issues. Precip is starting to get going
off the cntl La coast and this should gradually expand toward the
Galveston coastline overnight...then eventually north of the HWY
59 corridor Sat aftn. Potential is there for some heavy downpours
in/around the Galveston Bay & metro area Sat. Outside any convection
VFR conditions are again expected. Rinse & repeat Sat night & Sun.
47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity moving southwest out of Fort Bend county
down Highway 59 now weakening to just light showers. This lull
will be short-lived, especially for the southeastern forecast
area, or those counties surrounding Galveston Bay. General
troughiness over the north(west)ern Gulf, with a higher plus 2
inch PWAT air mass advecting in on mid-level easterlies, will be
enough to (re)generate offshore convection that will move onshore
through the early Saturday morning hours. Upper ridging has now
retreated back over the mid-Atlantic states with relatively lower
regional heights/pressures providing enough instability (within
this near-saturated column) to maintain moderate to high chance
Saturday daytime POPs for clustered thunderstorms. Lobes of higher
PVA moving onshore from the northwest Gulf, with a near 2.3 inch
pw north-south moisture axis setting up somewhere along the CWA,
and fairly weak sub-20 knot steering flow all signal slow-moving
storms that will be high precipitation producers. Model solutions
target the southern CWA for the highest weekend QPF, or over
counties that are already at (or over) 60% soil saturation. Thus,
if this scenario plays out as forecast over the next 12-24 hours,
a Flash Flood Watch may be required for these more southern
counties (wait and see where the early day activity begins to set
up). Overcast and precipitation will make for another day of a
smaller diurnal temperature spread, about 10 degrees; from middle
to upper 70 minimums to mid to upper 80 maximum T readings. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  89  74  89  74 /  20  40  20  40  30
Houston (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  40  40  40  50  40
Galveston (GLS)            79  86  79  86  80 /  50  60  60  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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