Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300224
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
924 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT THINKING
ANYTHING DENSE AT THIS POINT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
INTERESTING TO NOTE NAM/WRF FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...INCLUDING
LATEST 00Z RUN...HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A THETA E RIDGE...ALONG GULF FREEWAY
AND POINTS NW...BUT MODEL IS PRETTY MUCH ON ITS OWN IN SHOWING
THAT SCENARIO...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT FOR NOW.
STILL SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES OVER HOUSTON COUNTY BUT THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CURRENT SET OF TAFS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND VERY FEW CHANGES MADE
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE. GENERALLY A PERSISTENCE FCST OF MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OR FOG AT RURAL
SITES LATE TONIGHT. NAM12 KEEPS WANTING TO GENERATE SOME SCT SHRA
ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT BUT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL
DOING THIS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BUT WON`T INCLUDE A MENTION IN
TAFS ATTM. MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...VFR WITH JUST SOME
SPOTTY SHRA POPPING UP AROUND TIME OF PEAK HEATING. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/
SURFACE RIDGING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS MAINTAINING THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SETX THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND RADAR SHOWING
CU/TCU STRUGGLING TO FORM INTO SHOWERS. SHOULD ANY FORM THEY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A GROVETON TO CONROE TO WHARTON LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SHALLOW AND PROBABLY NOT OF MUCH
IMPACT.

RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY TUESDAY LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. THE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED TOWARD THE COAST
AND STILL ONLY 20-30 PERCENT. WARMER WEATHER BOTH TUE AND WED AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER ACTION SHOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE ARRIVING IN
THE CWA AND SWEEPING THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40-60 PERCENT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CAPE SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT TO
700-1500 J/KG BUT CAPPING BETWEEN 800-700MB WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH HEAVY RAIN
THREAT LOW AS WELL THOUGH WIDESPREAD PRECIP SEEMS LIKELY...PROBABLY
LESS THAN AN INCH. DRY WEATHER PUSHES IN QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND MILD DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS FOLLOW AND SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.  45

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO ONSHORE FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY NEAR
CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  92  72  92  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  73  90  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  84  77  84  79 /  10  20  20  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99



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