Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291117
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR TODAY.
PATCHY FOG SHOULD REFORM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST AND WEST OF SE TX. AT 850...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT OVER EXTREME SE TX EXTENDING ACROSS LA. A WEAK
850 TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS WEST MS TO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL TX. AT
700 MB...RIDGING WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE OVER WEST TX. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX.
AT 250 MB...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...EXTENDING INTO TEXAS.

NO REAL TRIGGER TO SPEAK OF TODAY OTHER THAN HEATING. PW VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO 1.20 INCHES TOWARD KCLL BUT REMAIN NEAR
1.70 INCHES AT KIAH. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S SO
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTN.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB SO
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.80 INCHES ON TUES
AFTN BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO HIGHER AND HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 80S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE BUT STILL CAN`T
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. ON WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER SATURATED
LAYER (SFC-850) IN THE AFTN SO DESPITE MORE DRYING ABOVE 800 MB
AND MORE CAPPING NOTED IN THE SOUNDINGS...JUST CAN`T RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CLEARING THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS MIGHT BE A TAD FAST BUT HAVE SPED UP THE FRONTAL TIMING A
BIT. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1.80-1.90 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FROPA. THIS IS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM 2.1-2.2 INCHES FCST
EARLIER. EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN GETS WEAKER AND WEAKER WITH THE
JET DYNAMICS AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANYMORE WITH THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS FOR NOW AND THAT IS
LOOKING KIND OF GENEROUS AT THE MOMENT. STILL LOOKS COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT ON FRIDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE COAST EARLIER. IT WILL ALSO BECOME CONSIDERABLY DRIER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.
A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
43

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY...SOME LOW-
LYING AREAS AT THE COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.
HOWEVER...ACTUAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET BOTH
DAYS.

OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS NO CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  70  92  72  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  71  90  73  90 /  20  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  76  84  77  84 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



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