Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 190447
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1147 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS WILL INITIALLY KEEP ALL SITES VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOTS OF CIRRUS
OUT WEST TRYING TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. IF ENOUGH BREAKS DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE...COULD SEE THE FORMATION OF SPOTTY MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW...CONTINUE TO CARRY
VCTS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND FURTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE METRO AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO W/ RAIN COOLED AIR & WORKED OVER ATMOS. OUTFLOWS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH
INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING W/ LOSS OF HEATING. SAME WX
PATTERN/TREND EXPECTED INTO WED. MAYBE A LITTLE LESS AREAL
COVERAGE TUE, BUT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE SURGE OF GULF
MOISTURE ARRIVE ON WED BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING CLOSER TO
THE REGION FROM THE ESE DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. SE TX
WILL STILL BE SITUATED WEST OF THE CENTER SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT AN ISO SEABREEZE CELL OR TWO. BUT OVERALL...MORE OBSTACLES TO
OVERCOME TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN.

REGARDING THE HEAT ADVSY ALONG THE COAST...A COUPLE SPOTS HIT
AGAIN 108-109 TODAY. THE MAGIC NUMBER FOR DROPPING IT NOW GOES TO
HEAT INDEX READINGS <105. THAT`S GONNA BE DIFFICULT TO DO RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AS SEABREEZE PULLS IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AND CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT. BEST CHANCE OF BEING ABLE TO DROP IT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WILL BE WED IF CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN LINGER LATER THAN
USUAL NEAR THE BEACHES. IN THE MEANTIME HEAT ADVSY CONTINUES THERE...47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE STRONGER NIGHTTIME
WINDS DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE
MODELS ARE KEEPING THE WINDS BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  97  78  97  78 /  20  30  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  96  78  96  79 /  10  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  92  83  92  83 /  10  20  20  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42



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