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000
FXUS64 KHGX 172059
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM HUMID AND...CLOSER TO THE COAST...HAZY DAY. HAZE APPEARS TO
BE CAUSED BY MID-UPPER LEVEL SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM EAST OF VERACRUZ
MX FIRES MIXING DOWN TO SURFACE. EARLY DAY OVERCAST HAS MIXED OUT
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING FOR AREAWIDE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90F. TODAY WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER PATTERN...ONE OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY MORNINGS PARTIALLY CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS. VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES...POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
TOWERING CU MAY SPIT OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER. MODELED COLUMNS ALL
DISPLAY WARMER MIDDLE LAYERS THAN THE SURFACE...SO STABILITY WILL BE
THE RULE WITH ANY ISOLATED MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION BEING THE
EXCEPTION.

THIS RECENT DRY PERIOD CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO UPPER RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER US THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ITS
AXIS CENTERING ITSELF OVER EASTERN TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING. RELATIVELY
HIGHER MOISTURE SATURDAY (1.3 INCH PWATS) MAY LOWER A BIT SUNDAY
AS A SWATH OF HIGHER LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND MIXES DOWN DURING HEAT OF THE DAY. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNVARIED EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY...HIGH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN
THE MEAN LOWER 70S WILL KEEP AFTERNOON INLAND RH`S IN THE 50-60%
RANGE...MUGGY 70-80% DURING WARMTH OF DAY THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. DAILY MINIMUM READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...
AFTERNOONS TOPPING OUT IN THE AVERAGE LOWER 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG AND
NEAR COAST). EXTENDED PROGNOSTICATIONS ARE REAMINING CONSISTENT WITH
THE MESSAGE OF PUSHING A BROAD UPPER NW TROUGH INTO NORTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY THAT WILL TRANSITION OUR FLOW TO MORE ZONAL UNDER WEAKENED
RIDGING. FEELING IS THAT...AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...THAT A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE (OR GENERAL WEAKNESS IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW) MAY INITIATE TUE-THU PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER THAN 1.3 INCH PWATS
AND...WITH UPPER 80F AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE TEMPS...RETURNING RAIN AND
THUNDER EPISODES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE EARLY-MID WEEK
FORECAST IS FOR SLIGHT NORTHERN CWA RAIN CHANCES WITH THE NOTE THAT
THESE POPS WILL POSSIBLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...OR ONCE WE GET
WITHIN THAT 2 TO 3 DAY WINDOW WHERE TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
MENTIONED ABOVE COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS. 31

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY FLIRT WITH SCEC CRITERIA. 43

&&

.AVIATION...
SMOKE IS CREEEPING UP THE COAST FROM FIRES IN MEXICO. THE SMOKE HAS
REDUCED VISIBILITY TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5 MILES AT TIMES. WILL UPDATE
COASTAL TAF SITES/HOUSTON TAF SITES TO REFLECT CHANGING CONDITIONS.
43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  90  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  90  71  89  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  81  73  78  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43