Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231758
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1258 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR flight rules to prevail this afternoon with occasional brief
MVFR periods as SCT ceilings occasionally become BKN030. MVFR
periods should be brief enough not to warrant a TEMPO group in
the TAF at the present time. The HRRR and ARW models suggest that
isolated showers may form in the vicinity of the inland terminals
after 21Z. Again, coverage should be light enough to not warrant
VCSH/VCTS in the TAF package. WInds should be from the southeast
near 10 knots.

Overnight...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible during the pre-dawn
hours with fog reducing visibilities to around 4SM. Conditions
should rapidly improve to VFR after sunrise.

A communications issue at the Houston ARTCC is preventing surface
observations from being automatically transmitted without being
manually typed by an observer. I will continue to append AMD NOT
SKED until automatic transmission of observations is restored. A
failed router is scheduled to be replaced at 430Z tonight.     44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
12z sounding data from CRP/SHV support high temps near 90 this
afternoon so current temp forecast looks on track. Satellite
derived PW fields show higher moisture levels near Matagorda Bay
and other area of higher PW air over extreme East Texas.
Convective temps this morning are in the upper 80`s so feel
shra/tsra will increase in coverage with afternoon heating. Raised
PoPs to 30 percent near these two pockets of higher moisture.
Latest HRRR trends also support the slightly higher rain chances
this afternoon. Rest of the forecast looks on track so no other
changes planned at this time. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      72  90  71  90  72 /  10  10  10  30  10
Houston (IAH)              73  89  73  89  73 /  10  30  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  90  79  88  79 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...44



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