Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 202145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Low-level moisture continuing to slowly climb across SE TX this
afternoon given the light onshore flow. Precipitation (associa-
ted with the shortwave) has remained over the Gulf waters...and
should continue to move east out of the area. We could see some
isolated WAA-type showers along the coast overnight...but still
thinking that the better rain chances will be during the after-
noon tomorrow as a strong cold front approaches from the north.
Favorable upper jet placement along with progs of strong short-
wave activity will help to keep the mention of isolated thunder
in with FROPA tomorrow.

Looking ahead, this may be our last best chance for rain during
the upcoming forecast period. Models indicating the development
of a highly amplified upper ridge out west, which should keep a
fairly deep/dry NW flow in place over SE TX through the rest of
the week (and into the weekend). As such, not expecting any big
weather issues for Thanksgiving across the region. Mostly clear
skies along with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the lower 40s
are on tap. Another cold front forecast on Sat should be mostly
dry given the lack of return flow/moisture. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Not many marine impacts expected tonight. The next cold front is
expected to push off of the coast Tuesday night. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this front. After the
frontal passage, moderate to strong northeasterly winds are expected
to develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Improving conditions
are expected by Thursday with light onshore flow resuming by Friday.

40

&&

.CLIMATE...
Climate for the Thanksgiving holiday is not as easy to calculate
when compared to other fixed date holidays such as New Years Day or
the July 4th Independence Day holiday.  Since 1942, Federal law
dictates that Thanksgiving be on the fourth Thursday of November.
Taking each Thanksgiving from 1942 and 2016, these dates range from
the 22nd to the 28th.  Given that this is about a week`s time range,
the climatic normals will be fairly close for this time of November.
However, it is important to remember that finding the average high,
low, and rainfall data for the Thanksgiving holiday has the variable
date inherent within the data.

The following is a summary of the 75-year period of Thanksgiving
holidays from 1942 to 2016 for the city of Houston.

Average Temperature Data
Average High:  68
Average Low:  49
Daily Average:  58.6

Maximum Temperature Data
Highest Maximum Temperature:  87
Highest Maximum Temperature Date:  November 22, 1973
Lowest Maximum Temperature:  44
Lowest Maximum Temperature Date:  November 23, 1972

Minimum Temperature Data
Lowest Minimum Temperature:  26
Lowest Minimum Temperature Date:  November 22, 1975
Highest Minimum Temperature:  70
Highest Minimum Temperature Date:  November 25, 1965

Rainfall Data
Total Holiday Rainfall from 1942 to 2016:  3.00 inches
Average Rainfall:  0.047 of an inch
Maximum Daily Rainfall:  0.7 of an inch
Maximum Daily Rainfall Date:  November 22, 190
Number of Days with 0.00 rainfall:  47
Number of Days with a Trace of rainfall:  12
Number of Days with 0.01 or more:  16

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      54  74  50  63  38 /  10  10  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)              53  73  55  66  42 /  10  20  30  10   0
Galveston (GLS)            62  74  61  68  50 /  10  30  30  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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