Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE GENERATED
A THICK WIDESPREAD STRATO-CU DECK TO KEEP NORTHERN COUNTY MINIMUMS
IN THE RELATIVELY WARMER LOW TO MID 60S. FURTHER SOUTH...UNDER
MORE CLEAR SKIES...READINGS WERE IN THE AVERAGE UPPER 50S. SPITS
FROM THIS CLOUD DECK ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF WHAT WAS SENSED WAS
VIRGA. YESTERDAY`S 21/12Z NAM12 SOUNDINGS DID A GOOD JOB PROGGING
THIS EARLY DAY MID-LEVEL DECK SO STICKING WITH ITS NEAR TERM SOLUTION
OF SCATTERING OUT TO MAINLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR A DECREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW PULLS IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
WESTERN UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING EASTWARD HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEEKEND. AVERAGE MX/MN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S/MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED AT A FEW OF THE STATIONS UNDER
THE SERPENTINE RADAR BAND STRETCHING FROM EWX INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS DZ WILL LIKELY
LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF OUR FCST ATTM. OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES
WITH THE FCST THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MILD/ DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE REGION NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFY UNTIL LATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS. WARMER TEMPS/SLOWLY
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING AOA SUN THRU THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. HAVE OPTED TO
WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND THE SLOWER GFS FOR
NOW. 41

&&

AVIATION...
VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT UTS/CXO/LBX THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE MINOR IMPACTS. UPPER SPEED MAX (90KTS) CAN BE TRACKED FROM AROUND
JCT TO GGG AND APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING WEAK LIFT FROM NEAR SAT TO
CLL WITH SOME SPRINKLES/-RA/DZ BUT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
BACK NEAR SAT. DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE AT CLL/IAH
AREAS BUT THIS ENTRANCE REGION WILL CERTAINLY AID THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WHAT IS
LEFT OF IT MAY REACH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. 45

&&

MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY THOUGH ONLY IN THE 10-15
KNOTS RANGE...SEAS ALSO LOWER AT 2-4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS SETX/LA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WHICH IN TURNS SWINGS WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SCECS MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY SLOW OR
STALL IN SETX BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THE WINDS BACK
TO THE EAST. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  58  85  58  86 /  10  10   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  55  84  56  85 /  10  10   0  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  65  81  67  79 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31



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