Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 272339
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
539 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL SITES EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY MVFR AND IFR CIGS. COULD SEE
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...HOWEVER NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
AND LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT
MVFR LEVELS ARE LIKELY...AND IFR LEVELS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE WELL
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW WITH
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING DAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO WINTER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 59...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LEADING TO A WARM AND HUMID DAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
59...WITH SCATTERED /OCCASIONALLY STRONG/ THUNDERSTORMS JOINING
THE PARTY. AS OF 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR
PALACIOS TO SOUTH OF HOUSTON TO CLEVELAND.

ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR /3 PM GPS MET ESTIMATES 1.4-1.6 INCHES/
POOLED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. STORM MOTION HAS BEEN AROUND 40-50
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL HELP MITIGATE AGAINST A LARGER
FLOODING POTENTIAL...BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT
/ALONG THE FRONT/ RAISES THE RISK FOR AT LEAST NUISANCE FLOODING
FROM TRAINING STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...BEGINNING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT A CLOUDY AND DREARY
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50. RAIN CHANCES WILL END WEST
TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

A BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK
WARMUP /TEMPERATURES NEAR 60/ BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT REACHES
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN
THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE...BUT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OOZE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. INCREASING UPGLIDE OVER THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY LOOK TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. WILL
HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND
OF 2015 BUT THE END LOOKS MUCH DRIER...ALBEIT CHILLY.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SHOWERS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RAINS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHTER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      41  51  35  61  40 /  40  50  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              43  50  37  60  41 /  70  80  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  52  43  57  49 /  60  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...42
REST OF DISCUSSION...HUFFMAN


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