Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 282319
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
Convection is waning across the area but residual periods of light
rain will probably persist for the next hour or so. Once precip
ends, VFR conds will prevail with just some cirrus. Models still
diverge a bit on whether showers will develop near the coast late
tonight but will maintain a VCSH at KLBX and KGLS after 09z. SREF
ensembles show a slight chance of fog near KCLL and with wet
ground and clearing skies...feel there is some potential for some
ground fog toward morning. TT WRF initialized and performed well
today and will lean toward the TT WRF for Wednesday. The TT WRF keeps
some light precip near the coast on Wed and will mention showers
at KLBX and KGLS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Complex forecast this evening as widespread showers and tstms
roll generally s-sw across southeast TX in advance of large scale
cool front sliding swd out of central TX. With moderate CAPE and
abundant moisture, storms have been producing some large rainfall
rates and localized flooding. Although expect a gradual diminishing
trend after sunset across the inland locations, we should still
see scattered activity near the front/outflow boundary tonight,
especially offshore.

Tomorrow will be much less active, although slight chance PoPs
will remain for another day or so before hotter and drier weather
becomes entrenched over the area by the end of the week and
through the holiday weekend. Although rain chances will be low for
the holiday break, the hot and humid conditions will bring heat
indexes back into the 105-110f range for some areas by Sunday.
May need to return to heat advisories by the end of the weekend
and early next week. Evans

MARINE...
Light and variable winds and low seas will continue through the end
of the week. An onshore flow is expected to return to the area on
Thursday but will not begin to strengthen until Friday night or Saturday
when low pressure over west Texas begins to deepen. Moderate south winds and
elevated seas will persist through the holiday weekend, and caution flags
might be needed.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  94  74  95  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  92  75  94  75 /  40  30  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  89  80  89  81 /  50  40  30  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...43



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