Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 282045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows mainly
clear skies over SE Texas. Radar still shows a few showers out in
the far offshore waters of the Upper Texas coast where the previous
cold front has stalled and is in the process of dissipating. Surface
analysis this afternoon shows weak high pressure over much of Texas
with a cold front pushing through Oklahoma. This front will bring
reinforcing dry air into our region. Water vapor imagery and upper
air analysis shows deep upper low over Indiana with ridging through
the High Plains.

Overall in the short term the forecast is about as quiet as it can
get. Winds should decouple overnight with mainly clear skies
allowing for low temperatures in the 60s except right along the
coast. Hi-res mesoscale and medium range synoptic guidance all push
the cold front through the area after sunrise tomorrow. Winds should
pick up from the north. Analysis of the forecast soundings are
continuing to predict the coolest temperatures on Friday and
Saturday. Cold advection does not really increase until later on
Thursday into Thursday night. High temperatures in the low to mid
80s look on track with dewpoints dropping into the 50s. Conditions
will feel more like actual fall rather than summer.


Following the front, high pressure will build back in from west TX.
This high should remain in control Friday and through the weekend.
Winds will begin turning Saturday night into Sunday and become more
easterly. Early Monday we should start to see this high pressure
system dampen and move to the south as low pressure begins to move
onshore from over the northwest coast near Washington State. This
low will slide to the southeast, potentially setting up our next
frontal passage. Forecast soundings keep precipitable waters fairly
low until next Tuesday when they increase to around 1.4 inches. Mid
to late next week is when we should begin to see rain chances rise
due to the influence from this low pressure system. Winds will be
onshore, helping to drive the seabreeze while also advecting Gulf
moisture into the area.


A weak cold front associated with a low pressure system sitting over
the Ohio River Valley, pushes the area in late Wednesday into early
Thursday. Wind speeds will pick up with the passage to around 10-15
kts, with gusts between 15-20 kts Thursday morning over the coastal
waters. Thursday evening winds will range from 15-20 kts, with
gusts between 20-25 kts. During this period wave heights will also
be slightly higher at 2-3 ft. The winds should lower after the
frontal passage, placing wave heights back to around 2 ft. Winds
will become easterly on Sunday, as high pressure takes control. By
Tuesday, we will see precip chances return to the forecast along
with onshore flow around 5-10 kts, and wave heights rise slightly
between 2-3 ft.


Tropical Storm Matthew has formed over the Lesser Antilles earlier
this morning. Current track takes it through the Caribbean before
possibly stalling and turning to the north towards Jamaica. There
seems to be good agreement with track models through Saturday but
when/where it begins to turn north will be the trick. By late
Sunday into Monday an upper level trough is expected to develop
over the Gulf of Mexico which should all for Matthew to turn
north. This also means that Matthew will pose no threat to the
Gulf of Mexico.


College Station (CLL)      61  82  58  80  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              65  86  60  82  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            75  85  71  80  71 /   0   0   0   0   0



Short Term/Tropical...39
Long Term/Marine...08

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