Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 270122
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
822 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO SE TX TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SFC DEW PTS HAVE COME UP SOME
THIS EVENING BUT MID/UPPER 60 TEMPS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MVFR FOG AT KCXO AND KLBX BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. OTHERWISE...A
WIND DIRECTION FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE NEARLY CLEAR BY 3 PM AS DRY AIR PUSHES WEST AND SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. THE WEATHER THE NEXT 3 DAYS LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES AND KEEPS SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
LIGHT WINDS - WARM AFTERNOON AND MILD NIGHTS. THE STRONG UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS TODAY WILL BE WEAKENING AS AN UPPER
TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING MAINTAIN
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN GULF/LA. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
FURTHER THE TROUGH RETROGRADES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH SHOULD
DEEPEN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES. GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER WITH THE SPEED OF THE
RETROGRESSION THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAKES THE MONDAY POP FORECAST A
LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING. FOR NOW WILL STRONGLY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA FOR RAIN AT 40 PERCENT WITH 20S UP NORTH. TUESDAY
AND BEYOND GFS/ECMWF DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR SETX AS UPPER TROUGH
AXIS LOCATION VARIES WELL EAST OF THE AREA (ECMWF) OR OVER THE
AREA OR WEST OF THE CWA (GFS) AND HAVE IN GENERAL FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WILL SPELL COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND A 30-50
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE REGION AND
20-30 NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUESDAY MAY LINE UP FAVORABLY WITH
THE COASTAL AREAS BRINGING A THREAT OF SLOWER MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
45

MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE THURSDAY...THEN VEER TO
BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND BUILDS OVER THE SERN STATES. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  97  67  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  96  69  97  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  92  80  92  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43


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