Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 200024 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
724 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK FRONT OFF THE
COAST...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM OF THE COAST WEST OF FREEPORT.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL EXTEND THE MENTION OF
THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO E TX.
WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND THEN PICKUP AGAIN TO AROUND
8-10KTS FROM THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR WITH MAYBE SOME MIFG AT
KCXO/KLBX. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...A TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST...AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS HAD MANAGED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS IN THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN
ANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ADVERTISED THIS MORNING /LIKELY
DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER AIR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S FILTERING INTO THE AREA/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE PLEASANT PATTERN WE/VE ENJOYED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S
COURTESY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ITS APPROACH WILL HELP SHEAR
OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH AN
AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THIS AREA AND KEPT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO ONLY A MODEST WARMING TREND BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT... TEMPERATURE
CHANGES LOOK MEAGER BUT IT WILL HELP REINFORCE DRY AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE/VE RECENTLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WITH THE
BIGGEST QUESTIONS CENTERING AROUND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
AND WHAT THAT WILL MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE GFS MOVING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN
OPEN...WEAK WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INSTEAD
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW... PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO END
THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER EAST...WITH THE 12Z RUN
NOW PUSHING IT FARTHER OVER LOUISIANA. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOISTURE... AS RETURN FLOW HAS LITTLE CHANCE TO
DEVELOP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SWEEPING ANY AID THE GULF
OF MEXICO MAY PROVIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW... KEPT RAIN
CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE
DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

14

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
AREA. CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. THERE COULD ALSO BE
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. AT THIS
TIME...ANTICIPATE DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A LOT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
AND PATH OF THE POSSIBLE GULF STORM SYSTEM. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE MARINE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  83  59  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  61  84  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  71  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39


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