Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 262313
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
513 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORE OF THE SAME...PATCHY CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT W-NW SFC
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
JUST LOOKING OUT THE WINDOW IT LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY TO BE OUT
SIDE. LATEST SFC OBS AT 20Z HAVE GENERALLY W/NW WINDS WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S. POSSIBLE TEMPS COULD CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. WHERE
WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD SEE TEMPS DROP MORE THAN FORECAST. THESE
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING THERE
COULD BE VERY DIFFERENT TEMPS FROM ONE AREA TO THE NEXT DEPENDING
ON WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND 4
CORNERS REGION. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER TX TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THUR. A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL STILL
MAINTAIN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PLAINS. ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA THUR NIGHT. NAM LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES FRI AND MAINTAIN NE/E BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK TO CLIMO
NORMALS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRI INTO SAT GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER
DESERT SW AND BAJA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE EMANATING FROM THE LOW
WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS ON
SAT TO HELP INCREASE QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY SAT INTO SUN WITH
BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY. FORECAST POPS OF 50-60 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE SINCE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HAVE MORE AGREEMENT. EARLY
LOOK AT RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH AREA WIDE.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT LIKE THIS MOST RECENT
EPISODE LAST WEEK. MODELS NOW PINCH OFF THE REMAINING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SUN INTO NEXT MON. MODELS ARE THEN HAVING
A TOUGH TIME DETERMINING WHEN THIS CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX.

39

MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT/SHIFT TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WEDS AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF FURTHER TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORN-
ING WITH MODERATE N/NELY WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SCEC CONDITIONS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  75  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              46  75  47  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            52  68  55  68  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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