Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHGX 271706
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1206 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis late this morning had a stalled front draped E/W
across SE Texas with weak surface low pressure over the Hill
Country. Strong inflow was noted with 30-35kt southerly winds on
the KHGX VAD wind profile. Elevated storms have formed behind the
frontal boundary as deep moisture continues to stream northward
riding over the boundary. Convective trends have been for more
activity to develop and with daytime heating, there could be
isolated strong/severe storm that produces heavy rainfall. It is
challenging to pinpoint the evolution of this convection since it
is not well organized. HRRR has had a tough time resolving
convection and depicting its evolution as a result. Given the
moist inflow normal to the boundary and favorable jet structure,
there is no reason to think that more convection will not develop.
Moderate ML CAPE exists south of the boundary so again more reason
to support convection with severe/heavy rain threat. Tried to
updated the forecast with these thoughts which was to increase
thunderstorm chances again. The next 6-9 hours will need to be
watch carefully for deep convection.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
The bulk of this morning`s TSRA activity now exiting east into the
Sabine River Valley this hour. Other than some light showers over
the next few hours...it should be quiet (generally VFR) as the
regional air mass recharges through the early afternoon. Satellite
imagery depicts quite a bit of dry air moving in from the west...but
can`t completely rule out a mid to late afternoon thunderstorm. The
kicker would be another weak disturbance passage latter today ahead
of the Rocky Mountain upper low as it lifts out into the Plains
early Saturday. The only caveat to the late period may be the
(re)development of MVFR decks per weaker winds over wet ground. 31


DISCUSSION...
Very dangerous flash flood and severe weather threat continues across
portions of Southeast Texas early this morning mainly to the north of
Interstate 10. Locations north of the Interstate that received amazing
and record shattering rainfall totals during the past 12 to 18 hours
remain at greatest risk for life threatening flash flooding as more
very heavy rainfall moves into the area from the west. A Flash Flood
Emergency is in effect until 815 AM for these areas generally between
College Station and Bellville then eastward to just west of The Woodlands.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect today for a large part of Southeast
Texas. In addition to the flood threat, there is a risk for severe
thunderstorms with this storm system, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is in effect for a large part of the area until 10 AM. Expect to see
adjustments made to the watches and warnings as the day progresses.
42/31/45/14/43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      81  71  88  72  86 /  80  40  30  10  30
Houston (IAH)              82  74  88  73  87 /  70  40  30  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            82  77  83  78  82 /  60  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Colorado...
     Fort Bend...Grimes...Harris...Houston...Liberty...Madison...
     Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
     Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 6 PM CDT this evening
     through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Galveston
     Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 6 PM CDT this evening
     through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 PM CDT this evening
     through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Waters
     from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...39



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.