Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 182040
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL OPEN UP AND SHEAR OUT OVER THE
PLAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING OVERHEAD WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TX
DURING A COUPLE OF EPISODES TONIGHT...THE FIRST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THE SECOND FROM LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED OR STRONG THUNDERSTORM. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN STORM ACTION
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST HAS BEEN STEALING MOST OF THE INFLOW
MOISTURE...THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE STORMS
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY WERE BEGINNING TO EXHIBIT COOLING CLOUD TOPS.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE STORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
WAS BEING FORECASTED BY THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 9 PM
AND 2 AM OR SO. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WITH THESE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH ONSHORE
WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. 47


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS INLAND PORTIONS OF SE TX SHOULD START SEEING
SOME INTERMITTENT BREAKS OF SUN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TO SEE
IMPROVING CIG HEIGHTS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THERE IS A SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST...SO ADDITIONAL HEATING ALONG WITH
APPROACHING S/W FROM MID TX COAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN - ESP SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-LIBERTY
LINE. (THIS IS ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT SAW SOME SIG WX
YDAY SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS.) AREAS FURTHER N
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON NW TX. MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A
DEVELOPING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OUT THERE THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY MAKING
IT ESE TOWARD SE TX LATE EVNG & OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW THIS ALL
PLAYS OUT, BUT WENT AHEAD AND THREW THE POTENTIAL OF THIS
OCCURRING IN THE 9-2AM TIMEFRAME IN THE CLL, UTS, CXO TAFS.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS ATTM BUT FEEL IT`S ENOUGH TO
BEGIN MENTIONING. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  56  75  54 /  40  20  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  85  61  78  57 /  30  20  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  81  66  77  66 /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47


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