Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 302356
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
656 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
PCPN BEGINNING TO DIE OFF THIS EVENING...LIKELY DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SLOWING IN-
CREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
MOST OF SE TX OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDS MORNING. MVFR VIS TO PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE SITES...BUT HAVE GONE IFR FOR A COUPLE OF SITES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT PCPN POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTN (AS PER THE ON-
GOING ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF (NEAR AND FAR OFFSHORE)). 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DAYTIME HEATING HAS GOTTEN SCATTERED (SLOW MOVING) STORMS GOING
IN THE SW AREAS AND A FEW FROM MADISONVILLE TO LIVINGSTON
NORTHWARD. WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS EXPECTED AND 75-77
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEARLY ONSHORE. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE. THE MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMING TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADDED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE RAINS WILL HELP TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND UP NORTH
WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER TEMPERATURE FALLS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE T/TD SPREADS AND
SUCH AS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEGINNING OVER THE WATERS AND EXPANDING INLAND
IN THE MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL AS WELL WITH A
GOOD CU FIELD. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND
STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXTENDS FROM SETX TO OK (MAGNITUDES IN
THE TOP 1 PERCENT ALONG WITH ELEVATED TEMPERATURES ALOFT) SO
STORMS ONCE THEY OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2700 CAPE AND LI -4 TO -7 THOUGH THE SHEAR
PROFILES DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WHEN MUCH BETTER FORCING
ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. HAVE RAISED POPS WITH
FROPA TO 60-70 WITH THE PASSAGE. THEN ABRUPTLY DROP AS STRONG CAA
KICKS IN AND DRY AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING. VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
ON TAP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DRY AIR AND DECREASING
WINDS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  92  76  92  68 /  20  10  10  40  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  90  77  91  72 /  40  30  10  30  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  84  79  87  77 /  20  20  10  20  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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