Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 110919
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW ALONG A DRY COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER ERN OK EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SSEWD INTO
CENTRAL TX BEFORE STALLING TODAY. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS OVER SERN TX EARLY THIS MORNING HAS KEPT MORNING TEMPS A BIT
HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS SLY COMPONENT WILL ALSO BRING
A RETURN TO 50+ SURFACE DEW POINTS SPREADING FROM THE COAST NWD
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE WARMER START AND THE CONTINUED SSWLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS...WE WILL WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

A SIMILAR SETUP WILL MAINTAIN THIS WARM WEATHER FRIDAY...BEFORE
THE WEAK COLD FRONT GETS PUSHED ACROSS SERN TX SATURDAY AS NWLY
FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING
INTO ERN CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL FOR THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COOL
FRONT STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLGT TO CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT.

48

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. CAUTION FLAGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH STRENGTHENING EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. CAUTION
FLAGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT STILL ANTICIPATED LATE ON MONDAY.  42
&&

.FIRE...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON A SLOW UPWARD TREND TODAY AND FRIDAY.
VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25%-35% THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...AND 35%-65% SOUTH OF THERE AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.
IT IS STILL DRY OUT THERE...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WEAKER
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  52  76  50  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  55  78  53  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  59  70  57  65 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48


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