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000
FXUS64 KHGX 182035
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SE TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE TO 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP A CAP IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CAP WILL LIKELY
KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IT
WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE MEXICAN FIRES
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY IF NOT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGH AND NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WELL.

A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SHOWS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY SHOULD AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES
THEN SHOW THE AIR MASS INCREASING IN MOISTURE WITH PW/S REACHING
1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY...AND
DESTABILIZING WITH LAPSE RATES AND CAPES INCREASING. EXPECT THAT
THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. AS EXPLAINED ON THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...EXPECT A
BOUNDARY TO LINGER AND RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL HELP DIMINISH THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

40

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES FROM SMOKE...GENERALLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z. MOISTURE BENEATH THE CAP WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN. LEANED TOWARD PERSISTENCE ONCE AGAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MIXING OUT BETWEEN 15-16Z. GRADIENT
LOOKS TIGHTER ON SUNDAY SO WILL ADD A GUST GROUP. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  91  73  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  90  73  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  82  73  82  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...43