Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221011
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BASE OF UPPER UPPER TROF SITUATED IN MEXICO SOUTH OF THE AZ/NM
BORDER WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA BY THIS EVENING
THEN INTO LA SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK IMPULSE
BEING KICKED OUT IN ADVANCE...ALONG W/ APPROACH OF LFQ OF JET...
LEADING TO SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WSW LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PUSH NEWD INTO MUCH OF OUR CWA
INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AS TO HOW
STRONG EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BECOME. DRIER AIR BACKDOORED INTO
ERN PARTS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS KNOCKED BACK
DOWN INTO THE 50S...SO ALTHOUGH IT`LL LIKELY RECOVER AS MARITIME
AIR MOVES BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON - WE`LL BE STARTING OFF BEHIND
THE CURVE. FCST CAPES ARE ALSO MARGINAL BUT NOT NIL EITHER.

THAT BEING SAID SAT IMAGERY LOOKS LIKE SE PARTS OF THE REGION
MIGHT START THE DAY WITH PEAKS OF SUN. BY MID/LATE AFTN AND
EVENING WHEN BETTER FORCING MOVES IN - LLVL JET WILL BEGIN
INCREASING, SHEAR VALUES & HELICITIES BECOME RESPECTABLE, & UPPER
DIFFLUENCE & JET POSITION WILL BE THERE. SO...WE`LL JUST HAVE TO
MAINTAIN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AND REALIZE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS CONDITIONAL. ALL THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS WILL BE THERE IF
SO. WINDS...HAIL & POSSIBLY TORNADOES IF ANY STORMS CAN BECOME
SFC BASED. (MORE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA; MORE SPECIFICALLY SW). THOUGH PRECIP WILL
BE MOVING AT A GOOD PACE UPPER PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CELLS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT FOR MINOR
STREET FLOOD TYPE ISSUES. PRECIP WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST AROUND 2 AM
AS WE GET DRY SLOTTED.

W/SW FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A GOOD WARM-UP ON SUNDAY. DRY COLD FRONT STILL PENCILED IN
TO MOVE ACROSS SE TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK. 47

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FLAGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR (AT LEAST) THE OFFSHORE WATERS THRU
TOMORROW AS STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS/NEAR-
SHORE WATERS NOT QUITE AS STRONG THIS MORNING BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVE AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AHEAD
OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT IS STILL FCST TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WNW THIS EVE/TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BY EARLY SUN MORN...BUT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT PROG-
GED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. MODERATE/STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS FCST TO PREVAIL EARLY TUE
AFTN...THEN DECREASING FURTHER AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. 41

&&

.AVIATION..
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORN WITH
SOME LIGHT PCPN NOTED WELL OFF TO OUR SW. THE MENTIONS OF VCSH START-
ING AT 12Z LOOK GOOD AT PRESENT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HINTING THAT BEST
PCPN CHANCES MAY BE A BIT LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AS A SQUALL LINE
SETS UP OUT WEST AND MOVES ACROSS...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID-
NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  59  79  46  64 /  90  90   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  80  51  66 /  90  90   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  76  57  65 /  60  80   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$


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