Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 241127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Complicated and messy forecast today. Patchy fog and some low cigs
have settled around SE Texas this morning. At the same time, a
broken line of thunderstorms is pushing southwestward through the
northern taf sites right now while scattered showers and storms
continue to develop near the coast and push northward into the
southern half of the taf sites. Model consensus is generally that
periods of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing for today and
into this evening, but overall timing trends are very hard to pin
down. Other than the initial convection happening right now, the
tafs have VCTS wording pretty much all day and amendments will
likely be needed to better pin down the timing as things progress.
Vis and cigs should gradually improve to VFR other than right
inside thunderstorms this afternoon with some possible MVFR cigs
and patchy fog developing again overnight tonight.  11


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Precip along a long lived ssw moving outflow has combined with
another line of shra/tstms moving swd across north Texas. This
line is currently moving into southeast Texas ahead of
schedule/forecast. Assuming it maintains about the same motion,
it should be situated from roughly Brenham to Houston to Winnie by
around 8am. Speed convergence along the coast is contributing to
additional (and increasing) precip development along the coast.
The threat of localized heavy rain will occur should this continue
to fill in and collide/merge with the incoming precip from the
north later this morning. We`ve included the mention of heavy
rain in the grids for areas generally along/south of a Bellville
Liberty line this morning.

Not a whole lot of confidence as to what the remainder of the day
has in store. One would think we`d have a decent break in the
early to mid afternoon hours in the wake of this mornings
activity. But with 2-3.3" PW`s in place, along with low convective
temperatures, it won`t take much heating to get additional
activity to develop. Have 50% POPs in as placeholders for the
afternoon, which can be adjusted either way as trends are
established.

Southeast Texas will remain in a general weakness aloft for a good
portion of the week. Available moisture will be highest, and
convective temps lowest, areawide between now and Tuesday. Slow
storm motions are forecast, at least on the synoptic scale, as
well so we`ll need to continue to keep an eye on the localized
heavy rain potential. Timing of precip will be difficult, and much
will probably occur on a mesoscale/microscale level not modeled
well further in time. So, like this afternoon, a lot of the POPs
and timing are broad brushed and will be refined with near term
trends.

Gradually lowering moisture levels, especially inland, are
expected during the second half of the week. So we`d generally
expect warmer conditions and less precip coverage then. Medium
range solutions do try to gradually build the eastern ridge back
overhead next weekend. 47

MARINE...
A SCEC is in effect through 9 AM this morning as winds will be at
least gusting to over 15kt through around mid morning. Winds and
seas will continue to diminish over the weekend before ramping up
again beginning mid week as the gradient tightens in response to a
developing surface cyclone over the lee side of the Rockies.

Tides remain slightly elevated this morning and are running about
1.5 feet or so above normal. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect
through noon today as these tide levels and wave run up will likely
cause some water to wash over Hwy 87 on Bolivar around high tide
this morning. These conditions will also likely cause strong rip
currents and longshore currents along Gulf-facing beaches today.
With winds and seas gradually diminishing, tide levels should
improve heading into this weekend.  11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      87  73  87  71  88 /  50  50  50  40  40
Houston (IAH)              88  75  87  72  87 /  60  40  50  40  60
Galveston (GLS)            88  79  87  78  86 /  60  30  50  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CDT this morning
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...11



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