Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 031606
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1106 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
EVERYTHING IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE ON
THE MORNING UPDATE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF SE TX TODAY BUT WE
SHOULD SEE THE LAST OF THEM LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING AS THE UPPER
RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THEREAFTER THE FCST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET/DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE MODER-
ATE/STRONG CAA OVER THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO ABATE TONIGHT WITH A
LIGHT NLY FLOW PREVAILING WEDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER
THE REGION THURS SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST FRI...ALLOWING ONSHORE
WINDS TO SLOWLY RETURN AT THAT TIME.

WE SHOULD ALSO BE SEEING CHANGES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE SQUEEZED BE-
TWEEN THE TWO BULLSEYE UPPER LOWS ON BOTH COASTS BEGINS TO FLAT-
TEN AS THE SYSTEM OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE INCREASINGLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO DRAW DISTURBANCES
ACROSS FROM THE WEST WITH POPS INCREASING BY THE LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL OPT FOR A MORE CONSERVATIVE INTERPRE-
TATION OF LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RETURN
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. 41

MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND MAY GET A
NUDGE UP AS 850 COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS MORNING AND THE HAPHAZARD
CAA IN PLACE GETS REINFORCED. WILL EXTENDED THE SCEC/SCA THROUGH 11
AM. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH NOON THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. UPPER S/W PASSES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL
LIKELY REINVIGORATE THE CAA BRIEFLY. SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING. OVER THE WEEKEND THE SE FLOW INCREASES WITH A LONG SE
FETCH AND WILL LIKELY END UP WITH A LENGTHY PERIOD OF SCEC/SCA
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
45

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE THIS MORNING WHILE
9000-12000FT CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH LOWER SLIGHTLY BEFORE CLEARING
OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WED-FRI.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  54  80  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  54  79  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  64  79  66  80 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31


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