Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180432
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1132 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH SOME MVFR FURTHER TOWARDS THE
WEST. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING... THINK THIS WILL BE LIMITED THOUGH AS CLOUDS SHOULD
HOLD IN. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE TOWARDS THE WEST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS BY THE AREA. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE DAY. SOME CLEARING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY BRINGING A CIRRUS
SHIELD BACK OVERHEAD. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER STILL WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LOWER CIGS TO THE
WEST WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS GOING ON AND PROBABLY WILL
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL ADD 20 POPS TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THIS LIGHT PRECIP. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES HAVE OF
COURSE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE CLOUD
COVER PERSISTING UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE HAVE RAISED MINS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY NORTH OF A LIBERTY TO CONROE TO CALDWELL LINE 1 TO 3
DEGREES.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
CAN BE FOUND AROUND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND WILL
PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN START
TO VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY (PARTICULAR-
LY THE NERN CWA) BUT CLOUDS HAVE HELD FIRM ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH THE
CHANCE OF PCPN (ALBEIT LIGHT) IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TONIGHT COURTESY OF A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE TIMING
OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SHRA THAT
DOES FORM GENERALLY ISOLATED.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT/GENERALLY QUIET WX PATTERN ON TAP THE NEXT
DAY OR SO GIVEN THE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT (AND REINFORCING COOL/DRY
AIRMASS FROM A WEAK COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT). HOWEVER MODELS
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE RETURN OF INCREASING TEMPS/LOW LEVEL MOI-
STURE AND A RETURN OF LOW POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SAT NIGHT/SUN). BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF SHOULD BE
WELL N/NE OF THE CWFA (AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY). A
BRIEF (BUT MUCH FLATTER) RIDGE ALOFT TO WILL BE IN PLACE TO START
THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER (PERHAPS STRONGER) UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
SET TO MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS STILL NEAR BORDERLINE CONDITIONS FOR CAUTION CRITERIA
SO WILL LET THOSE FLAGS CONTINUE TO FLY UNTIL NEXT UPDATE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS WEAK FRONT/HIGH PRES
WILL MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NNE THEN NE. LIGHT ONSHORE RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THRU
NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE 2ND HALF AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  58  78  58  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  58  80  59  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  63  75  66  76 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23



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