Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 190435

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1135 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Showers over the Gulf will continue to move inland and some will
begin to affect KGLS and KLBX between 08-10z. Showers will move
inland during the later morning and could impact KHOU, KSGR and
KIAH between 15-19z. Fcst soundings still show a healthy cap in
place near 700 mb but PW values increase to around 1.60 inches and
a saturated layer develops between 850-750 mb. RAP, HRRR and TT
WRF still show some potential for weak showers on Wednesday.
Should still get some brief MVFR cigs near KCLL and KUTS prior to
sunrise. Confidence in fog developing is low but will maintain
MVFR fog conds at KCXO. SREF ensembles show best potential for
NW/NE of area TAF sites. 43


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

The combination of onshore winds and an increasingly moist airmass
has led to the formation of isolated showers off of the coast
early this evening. Model sounding forecasts show the best
potential off of the coast this evening and into the coastal
counties after midnight. The Texas Tech WRF and the RAP13 both
agree with this scenario while the HRRR has the rainfall potential
increasing over the coastal counties toward sunrise.

Revised the rain chances for this evening and overnight tonight.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016/

Another day of unseasonably warm weather expected tomorrow before
the arrival of the cold front on Thursday. We have already tied a
record this afternoon (GLS) and are close to another (CLL). As it
stands...records most likely to be reached/exceeded tomorrow will
be HOU/GLS. (see below)

No significant changes with the overall forecast as models remain
in fairly good agreement with the upcoming pattern shift. Weakening
and eastward shifting upper ridge will allow for the passage of a
deep longwave trof Weds/Thur. This will then help to drag a long-
awaited cold front into/across the state Thur. The NNW flow aloft
in the wake of the front is then progged to segue into broad upper
level ridging by the weekend. Will have to keep an eye on this
pattern as the new week starts as there are hints (via ECMWF) the
ridge will be short-lived with the development/passage of a fairly
well defined shortwave moving in from the CA Baja region. Will
this herald a more active pattern for next week? Long-range progs
from GFS (of a strong upper low/trof deepening just off the southern
CA coast and its subsequent SW flow aloft here) seem to con- trast
sharply with the ECMWF extended patterns (of strong ridging over
the state). Hmmm. Upcoming runs should be interesting. 41

High Temperature Records
     TODAY 10/18     WEDS 10/19
CLL    92-2004         97-1921
IAH    96-1895         94-2004
HOU    94-1947         90-2004
GLS    87-2007         86-2004

Tides are still running about a foot above normal. Will probably see
water come up to or slightly over the Highway 87 @ Highway 124
intersection between 5-10pm this evening and again Wed (around times
of the the more significant high tides). Doesn`t appear any other
locations should see any substantial issues.

Southerly to southeasterly flow of around 10-15kt is forecast to persist
for the next couple of days. A cold front will push off the coast on
Thursday, with northeasterly winds increasing to around 20-25kts and seas
reaching 6 to 8 feet in the offshore waters overnight Thursday night.
Winds will gradually shift onshore and weaken as seas slowly subside
throughout the weekend.  11


College Station (CLL)      73  92  70  79  55 /  10  20  30  40  10
Houston (IAH)              71  91  71  85  57 /  10  20  30  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            78  87  77  83  65 /  20  30  30  50  10




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