Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271638
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PW VALUES HAVE DROPPED FROM YESTERDAY AND CU FIELD CONSIDERABLY
LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRIER COLUMN WITH HIGHER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. ONLY THE HRRR IS SHOWING PCPN ON THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
AFTN. COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SLIGHT TO MENTION IN AREA TAFS SO WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF VCSH. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCXO AND KLBX. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED GULF SHOWERS...IT HAS BEEN A QUIET MORNING
PRECIPITATION-WISE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DRY AND HOT DAY
AS 5H RIDGING HAS NOW ENVELOPED THE REGION. LOWER LAYERS ARE
ADVECTING IN A DRIER AIR MASS UPON WARMER SOUTHWESTERLIES WHILE
UPPER LAYER FLOW IS DRAWING IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
THIS TEAMING OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL EQUATE TO A MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY DAY AS MANY INTERIOR TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE
90S...AROUND 90F AT COAST...WITH AN EARLY DAY SOUTHWEST BREEZE
BACKING SOUTHERLY AS INLAND TEMPERATURES WARM PAST 90F. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KS INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
PLAINS. BASED OFF 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA...PRECIP
WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED ALONG THE COAST WITH BEST MOISTURE ALONG
THE N GULF. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE OVER THE S
PLAINS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGE DID NOT STOP A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM FORMING YESTERDAY SO IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT A FEW ISO STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE AND MENTION ISO STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 95-97F RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 103-105. OVERALL
JUST YOUR TYPICAL HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF JULY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MINN WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK OVER THE C PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE THIS
UPPER LOW AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT NOT REALLY WEAKEN MUCH OVER TX. THE RIDGE FINALLY
WEAKENS MON INTO TUE. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO TX MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO SE TX TUE AND STALLS MAINLY FROM A NW TO SE DIRECTION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT POSITION THE FRONT STALLS.
REGARDLESS THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUE THROUGH THUR. RIGHT NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
BASICALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BROADEN INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THUR. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE S PLAINS WED INTO THUR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BUT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE OVER N TX BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR. RAIN CHANCES OF
30 PERCENT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THUR BUT COULD SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO
HOLD ONTO AT LEAST 20 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SO DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  76  96  76  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  95  77  93 /  10  10  10  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  81  91  81  90 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...43


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