Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210932
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS NETX/LA/MS/AL THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY (EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES) TODAY
WITH WARMER CONDITIONS ON TAP. EASTERLY LL FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY
DECOUPLING TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT OVER KANSAS TODAY
WILL DROP SOUTH AND INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE BUT HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE
LIMITED GIVEN THE STORM MOTIONS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT INTO
THE GULF AND SW COASTAL COUNTIES BY EVENING AND RAIN CHANCES DROP
AGAIN. DRY AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP. THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS 829 PM
MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE WEEK OVER THE
GULF AND SOME MAY SKIRT INTO BRAZORIA/MATAGORDA/JACKSON COUNTIES
SO WILL CARRY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LOWER
PROBABILITY EVENT.

THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY OVER MOST OF SETX THEN
RIDGING WEAKENS AND UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO SETX SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD POOL DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MAY EVEN DRAG SOME
INTO SETX SATURDAY SO WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FLIRTING WITH SCEC CRITERIA
THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT ADD THE MENTION ATTM. HOWEVER
EXPECT- ING GRADIENT TO RELAX A BIT MORE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OFF THE COAST MON AFTN AND THE
SUBSEQUENT LIGHT/MODERATE OFFSHORE (NELY) FLOW FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY SPOTTY PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BY
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SPOTTY PATCHY FOG A
POSSIB- ILITY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORN. MAY HAVE TO ADD
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE MORE SRN SITES WITH FROPA DURING THE DAY
MON. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  72  92  68  88 /  10  10  30  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  72  92  68  87 /  10   0  40  30   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  79  87  75  86 /  20  10  20  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...41



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