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000
FXUS64 KHGX 230840
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A BREAKABLE CAP SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER EAST TEXAS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE JUST DOESN`T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION. A SUBTLE WEAKNESS AT
500 MB WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SAT/SUN. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS SUBSIDENT
AND RELATIVELY DRY OVER SE TX. MEX NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE COOL
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO WENT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE. 43

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND ELEVATE WAVE
HEIGHTS AND WINDS TO CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  72  90  70  90 /  10  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  72  90  71  89 /  10  10  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  74  83  73  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$