299
FXUS64 KHGX 150746
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
246 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

After some morning patchy fog, today promises to be very similar to
yesterday. However, ridging aloft will be a tad more pronounced.
Therefore, we may tack on an extra degree or two or three as
compared with yesterday. Inland highs are expected to average around
90 degrees (~mid 80s at the coast). Humidity is expected to be
relatively low once again (for Gulf coast standards), with afternoon
dew points generally in the low 60s (upper 60s at the coast).

While we enjoy the quiet toasty weather today, a mid/upper trough
will move eastward over SW CONUS. The resulting PVA increase across
western Texas/Oklahoma will induce LL pressure falls and gradually
increase the pressure gradient across the Lone Star State. You will
notice this via a return to SE LL flow from the Gulf. As SE flow
continues into the evening and overnight hours, moisture from the
Gulf will pool northward. A stalled frontal boundary (currently well
offshore) is expected to lift northward through the night as a warm
front, and stall over our CWA on Thursday. Where it stalls is
somewhat uncertain, but the current data suggest it will be
somewhere over our central or northern counties. The aforementioned
trough moves into W Texas on Thursday. Its large scale PVA along
with a parade of vort maxes embedded in the enhanced southwesterly
subtropical jet aloft will bring plentiful synoptic scale ascent.
HREF ensemble mean PWAT show widespread 1.8-2.2 inch values by
Thursday afternoon across SE Texas. In the low levels, some of the
data is hinting at the development of a sfc low pressure system over
W Texas that could move eastward along the stalled boundary. This
could impact the SE Texas atmosphere in a few ways. For starters, it
could enhance LL S to SE flow. HREF 850MB ensemble mean winds
suggest the development of a 25-35 kt LL jet. The low could also
further enhance LL convergence along the boundary, providing a focus
region for deep convective development. Instability south of the
boundary could be high, with ensemble means indicating a good shot
of 2000+ J/kg CAPE in what would be the inflow region of developing
convection. So let`s talk about what this all means for southeast
Texas.

Generally speaking, there is a concern for heavy rainfall across
most of the CWA. WPC has continued the Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4)
of excessive rainfall north of I-10 while most elsewhere is in a
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4). The continuation of the Moderate Risk is
warranted for two primary reasons. The first being the antecedent
soil conditions from recent heavy rains. Unfortunately, it may not
take that much rain to result in flooding issues, especially across
the Piney Woods region. The second reason is the placement of the
boundary coupled with the overall synoptic set up. This is expected
to favor deep convective development over our central and northern
counties by Thursday afternoon. As Thursday afternoon progresses
into Thursday evening and night, mesoscale processes may push the
thunderstorm activity farther south. Widespread Thursday to Thursday
night rainfall totals are expected to be 2-4 inches north of I-10,
then drop to less than an inch near the coast. However, locally much
heavier totals over 6 inches are possible.

Though flooding is the primary concern, it is worth mentioning that
a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe. SPC has placed
areas north of I-10 under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms on Thursday. Areas farther south are under a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 4). Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary
concerns, though a tornado cannot be ruled out.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The storm system should be exiting our area off to the east on Friday.
But before it goes, we could get one more shot of some showers/storms
in the afternoon thru early evening hours. Hopefully, rainfall totals
from this activity do not add too much to our already saturated locations.
The previously mentioned break in our recent rain events is still on
track beginning on Saturday and continuing into the first half of next
week as ridging aloft builds across the state. This pattern change will
shut down our rains. Friday will be the coolest of the days with afternoon
highs in the 80s. Over the weekend and on into next week, highs will
be mainly in the lower 90s, but we could see some mid 90s here and there.
Lows during this period will be mainly in and upper 60s to low 70s range,
but by Tuesday the 60s will likely disappear. Peak heat index values
will be mainly in the upper 90s to low 100s, and heat safety precautions
should be taken.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Clear skies and light, variable winds can be expected across SE
Texas overnight. Isolated patchy fog has already begun to develop
late tonight. As this fog spreads, it may bring MVFR to IFR VIS
thoughout portions of SE Texas during the early morning hours of
Wednesday. All fog should burn off after sunrise, with winds
strengthening and becoming southeasterly heading into the
afternoon. Wednesday night, high clouds and isolated showers will
be possible.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024






42

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record high temperatures were set in Galveston and Palacios yesterday
(May 14th). For Galveston, yesterday`s high temperature of 90 degrees
broke the old record of 88 degrees that was last set in 2022. Galveston`s
records date back to 1874. For Palacios, yesterday`s high temperature
of 91 degrees broke the old record of 90 degrees that was set in 1959.
Palacios`s records date back to 1943.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  66  80  70 /   0  20  80  60
Houston (IAH)  89  69  85  72 /   0  20  80  60
Galveston (GLS)  84  74  83  75 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$