Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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374
FXUS64 KHGX 232156
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A very pleasant day. The only news being that of low water levels
in and around the local bays and shipping channels...the
lingering affects of yesterday`s strong west northwest winds.
Ambient temperatures are warming into the lower 70s with an
anticipated quick drop off into the 50s this evening under weak
(return) flow and clear skies. As high pressure transitions to the
east tomorrow...the onshore pressure gradient will tighten between
this high and lowering lee Rocky pressure producing a fresh onshore
afternoon breeze. Mainly sunny skies (just cirrus) and a slight
westerly component to the lower-mid level wind field as western
Texas troughing deepens promoting above guidance lower 80 F
afternoon temperatures. The mid-level thermal ridge (mid teen
85H temperatures) also strengthens the near 20 degree above normal
Tuesday daytime temperature argument and well as provide a decent
downstream warm nose. This mid-level capping will afford a mainly
dry early Wednesday boundary passage...slight to low end chance
POPS with lower QPF focused over the southern half of the CWA.
Cold air advection Wednesday and Thursday will lower temperatures
to near normal ahead of an early Saturday front. Not much of a
pressure push behind this mid week front that equates to a light
veering offshore wind to the east through Thursday. Brief onshore
flow Friday with swing around to offshore over the weekend in the
wake of Saturday`s frontal passage. The arctic based colder air
will reinforce the region`s already cooler air through the
weekend. The bulk of the driest and coldest Canadian air will
remain off to the north and east. Thus...a cool down but nothing
too extreme. The extended model ensemble blend has diurnal
temperatures at...or slightly below...normal values for late
January. 31

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over East Texas will maintain light winds this evening.
The area of high pressure will shift east overnight and low pressure
will develop in the lee of the Rockies. The gradient will tighten in
response to these systems and wind speeds will begin to increase. An
increase in speeds is expected on Tuesday and a SCEC may be required
for the 20-60 waters. A cold front will cross the marine zones early
Weds and offshore winds will develop and gradually strengthen during
the day. Another SCEC will be possible for the 20-60 NM marine zones
on Wednesday and over the 0-20 NM waters Wednesday night. An SCA may
be needed for the 20-60 N waters Weds night. A moderate east flow is
expected to develop late Thursday night as another sfc high moves to
the east. Another reinforcing cold front will cross the coast on Sat
morning. This will maintain NNE winds across the coastal waters thru
next weekend. Advisory and/or SCEC conditions will again be possible
next weekend.

Tide levels remain very low and will extend the Low Water Advisory
through 04z. Water levels should continue to increase as both Morgans
Pt and Manchester approach high tide. Tide levels will remain below
normal until onshore winds become reestablished early Tues
morning. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      51  80  52  65  38 /   0  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              52  82  61  70  43 /   0  10  20  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            59  77  63  69  50 /   0  10  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Galveston Bay.

&&

$$

Discussion...31/43



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