Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 270519
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1119 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
NORTHEAST AROUND DAYBREAK AND BECOME EAST BY THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER IN A STRING OF CHILLY EVENINGS WITH THE LONE DIFFERENCE
BEING THE WIND FIELD. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PASSING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTER OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY
STRENGTHEN MORNING GULF WINDS TO CAUTION LEVELS. MINOR COOLING
FROM WEAK CAA WILL BE COUNTERED BY FULL SUN AS THE AFTERNOON WARMS
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. DUE TO THE RESIDENT DRY AIR MASS...
THANKSGIVING EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COOL INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. NE-E BREEZES VEER ONSHORE FRIDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASE
HUMIDITY. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES AND WILL REACH THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE STATE. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
THANKS TO LOW PWAT AIR IN PLACE (~0.4" ACCORDING TO GPS MET SITE).
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH IT BEING LOCATED RIGHT AROUND WACO, TX AS OF 2 PM. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THANKSGIVING
LOOKS ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ALLOWING THE WARM
UP TO BEGIN ALONG WITH SOME CU IN THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING VERY LOW
RAIN CHANCES WITH IT (FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT BEST). THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONT AFTER TONIGHT
WILL BE LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
GENERALLY STALL THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN THE FRONT
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH SEEMS GENEROUS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
ZONAL FLOW. WILL LOOK FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE FUTURE
BEFORE MAKING BIG CHANGES. 23

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING. THE WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE AND STAY RELATIVELY
STRONG THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. HAVE ISSUED
A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH 15Z AND FOR THE 20-60 NM WATERS
THROUGH 21Z. ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      41  63  41  69  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              42  65  41  70  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  63  52  68  62 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 AM CST THURSDAY
     THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...38


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