Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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843
FXUS64 KHGX 130519
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1119 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR KLBX AND SREF/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG WILL EXPAND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT KGLS AND KSGR. A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDED E-E ACROSS SE TX. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG
SOUTH WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT (BETWEEN 09-12Z).
A LIGHT NE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST SAT MORNING AND SOUTHEAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. CIGS MIGHT IMPROVE BRIEFLY LATE SAT AFTN BUT CIGS
WILL LIKELY FALL AGAIN BY MID EVENING WITH MVFR CONDS SAT NIGHT.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM CST SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /ROUGHLY FROM WASHINGTON CO TO LIBERTY
CO/... WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND REMAINING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH OF IT. AS A
RESULT... ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATION FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO
APPEARS POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. THE MAIN
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG
INLAND BASED ON TRENDS IN THE SREF/HRRR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TOWARD THE
GULF TONIGHT. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP DRIVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER STATE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR FOG. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE FOG AREA LIFTING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST OF THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE NOT AS CONDUCIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFSBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK BETTER FOR MONDAY
THAN THE MODEL HAS SHOWN OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION OF PATCHY FOG FORMING ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL GO
ANOTHER FEW CYCLES AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL
RUNS.

40

MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE MARINE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE-E AS THIS OCCURS AND
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD SWING RIGHT BACK TO THE SE SAT
NIGHT AND REMAIN AT MODERATE SPEEDS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST MON AFTN. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE REGION.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT
COULD BE A SET UP FOR A MULTI-DAY SEA FOG ISSUE - DEPENDENT ON
EVENTUAL WATER TEMPS AT THAT TIME. WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE LATER.
47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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