Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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053
FXUS64 KHGX 280505
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
Forecast reasoning has not changed much from the last cycle.
perhaps some uncertainty has been introduced in where a convective
band sets up later today as recent HRRR runs have set up a little
farther west than presented in the TAF scenarios. But at this time
it is not enough to warrant wholesale changes to the forecast,
especially given its performance earlier this evening. The main
issue in this cycle was in wrapping up precipitation and going to
clearer skies and lighter winds. Opted to give a bit wider berth,
and end convection a little later than the guidance. There is some
potential for renewed showers and storms towards the coastal sites
with potential for convective initiation along the landbreeze, but
think it will hold off until beyond the scope of this forecast
cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Precipitation continuing to wane with the loss of daytime heating
with the exception being along the coast/over the coastal waters.
Only minor tweaks to the going forecast for the update, mainly to
account for current radar trends. Otherwise the forecast seems to
be on track...especially for tomorrow which should be active. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      95  76  93  76  93 /  30  30  50  50  20
Houston (IAH)              94  76  93  75  91 /  50  30  60  30  40
Galveston (GLS)            89  81  89  79  89 /  20  30  50  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation/Marine...25



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