National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161507
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THERE WAS SOME RAIN OVER TRINITY BAY AND
GALVESTON THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD SOME REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
OVER TRINITY BAY WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR
MASS. HAVE PUT OUT AN SPS CONCERNING THE FUNNEL CLOUDS. ANY OTHER
FUNNEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED THIS MORNING.

CURRENT SOUNDINGS FOR LCH AND CRP THIS MORNING SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF
DRY AIR IN PLACE AROUND 700MB. THE LCH SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GIVEN THE SLIGHT INVERSION
AROUND 800MB. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SAME THING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LIMITED CHANCE OF RAIN. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE SAME IDEA FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHILE THE COLLEGE
STATION FORECAST SOUNDING HAS NO REAL CAP AND ALMOST 2.00" OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKED AT ACARS SOUNDINGS AND
THEY MATCH CLOSELY TO THE OBSERVED LCH/CRP SOUNDINGS AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GOES SOUNDER ALSO SHOWS PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5" THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
AND OTHER DATA FEEL THAT THE GFS IS THE WAY TO GO. HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR THIS MORNING NEAR TRINITY BAY BUT HAVE
LEFT OTHER POP GRIDS UNCHANGED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE NORTH MIGHT
PRODUCE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES (SUCH
AS BRAZOS OR HOUSTON COUNTIES) BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
10%. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED. BESIDES UPDATE TO CURRENT
POP GRID TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN NEAR GALVESTON BAY NO CHANGES MADE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FCST PACKAGE. TAIL END OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS AND THE
SEABREEZE MIGHT GENERATE A SHRA OR TWO TODAY BUT CHANCES/COVERAGE
PROBABLY NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS.

WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY TAKES SHAPE DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE/TROF AND SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO N/NE TX ON
TUES AND SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THERE. MAY SEE THE
BOUNDARY SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WHERE EXTREME N/NE PARTS OF THE CWA
COULD SEE SOME ISO/SCT ACTIVITY TUE AFTN-WED.

LLVL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP
POPS LOW. WX IN THE YUCATAN SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD BUT WITH RIDGE IN THE VICINITY BULK OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP
SHOULD STAY SOUTH. 47

MARINE...
WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE FAIRLY QUIET FCST OF GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (AND LIKELY BEYOND).
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT SFC HIGH TO KEEP
FLAGS/ADVISORIES OUT OF THE FCST. 41

AVIATION...
NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE AS THE EXITING UPPER TROF/
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT HELPS TO KEEP THINGS QUIET. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF PCPN TODAY WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  75  95  75  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  80  91  80  91 /  20   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23