Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 182341
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
641 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS SFC FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER THE
MISS RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EAST WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL EXPECTING WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT KCXO/KLBX SO
LIKE 6SM MIFG FOR THOSE TAFS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS BETWEEN
GALVESTON BAY AND THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA AREA. STILL WAITING TO SEE
IF ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS UP NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE.
FOR NOW...STICKING WITH THE DRY FORECAST UP THERE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PERSISTS. BECOMING A TAD LESS CONFIDENT ON
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE WEAKER WITH SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
AND ALSO HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE
CUT OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL
NOT MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF FORECAST CHANGES.  42

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AS THIS FLOW PERSISTS TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WILL BUILD
TO AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CAUTION AND/OR ADVISORY
FLAGS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 38

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT A FEW
SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  82  62  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  80  70  81  70 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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