Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 251714
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1214 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conds expected through 06z. MVFR cigs expected to develop as
low level moisture increases beneath a strong capping inversion.
HRRR is showing IFR cigs developing west of Houston by 08z.
Confidence is low with regard to IFR development. Fcst soundings
keep MVFR cigs in place for much of Friday with cigs mixing out
between 18-20z. Winds will remain gusty this afternoon and drop
slightly overnight but never fully decouple with gusty winds
expected again on Friday. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

UPDATE...
Another gorgeous morning under sunny skies and a brisk southwest
to south wind, upper 70 regional temperatures. Moisture will
return through the day, increasing cloudiness from the west during
the overnight early Friday morning hours. Increased cloud cover
and winds staying up at around 10 mph should provide enough
insulation and mixing, respectively, to regulate Friday minTs to
the lower to middle 70s. Very low rain chances Saturday will begin
to reach chance categories Sunday. The target window for the area
receiving rainfall will be from Sunday evening through Memorial
Day. A shortwave trough passage with the best upper level support
occurs early Monday. As of now, QPF values are low with the
highest QPF of around half of an inch to an inch being focused
across the northern third of the CWA through early Tuesday. A
slow-moving surface boundary sagging into a southeastern Texas
near 2 inch pwat air mass Monday is certainly a situation that
needs to be monitored for the potential for high rainfall going
into the weekend. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cool/quiet conditions across SE TX this morning. As the surface
high moves off to the east...we should see onshore winds return
through this afternoon. Warmer temps expected the next few days
along with increasing moisture levels (as S/SE winds strengthen
in response to a low pressure moving into the Southern Plains).
Highs in the lower 90s with lows in the 70s should prevail.

No real forecast issues are expected for SE TX until the latter
part of the upcoming weekend. The system moving into the Southern
Plains will help to drag a cold front into the state on Sat and
the boundary should eventually make its way into the northern
portions of our CWFA by Sun night. The flattened upper flow will
likely keep the front over the area which will then act as a focus
for wet/active weather for perhaps much of next week. PWs are
progged to around 2" as a series of shortwaves approach from the
west. Extended models have been fairly consistent with this
scenario these last few days, so will continue to keep elevated
POPS in for this time frame. 41

MARINE...
Onshore winds will quickly strengthen during the day today as the
pressure gradient tightens in response to developing low pressure in
the lee of the Rockies. A moderate onshore flow will prevail through
the weekend with low pressure over West Texas and high pressure over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A SCEC will likely be required at times
through the weekend, with SCA conditions possible overnight tonight
into Friday morning. A weak cold front will approach SE TX Sunday
night but is not forecast to make it off the coast. Lighter onshore
flow is forecast for the beginning of next week. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      90  72  91  76  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              88  74  89  78  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            84  78  85  80  85 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
     Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...43



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