Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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848
FXUS64 KHGX 292348
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR through the period. Resident dry air with a moderate offshore
pressure gradient producing a light north-northeast breeze. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
A cold front has pushed through the area allowing for a nice northerly
breeze and drier airmass over SE Texas. Dew point temperatures
have dropped into the 50s to low 60s and with temperatures in the
mid/upper 80s, relative humidity levels are down to 35 to 40
percent. With clear skies and light/calm winds tonight, minimum
temperatures should drop into the 50s most areas with 60s along
the coast.

Current upper level pattern has not changed much with a closed upper
low over the Ohio river valley and a ridge over the Rio Grande Valley.
A similar pattern is expected tomorrow with good agreement of the
synoptic models. Upper level trough upstream over the Pacific will
begin to change the pattern over the weekend. As such another dry
day will be expected tomorrow with high temperatures in the low
80s. It should be a nice way to end the month. 39

&&

LONG TERM...
Ridging will remain over the area through most of the long term period,
allowing temperatures to slowly rebound back into the upper 80s to
low 90s by Tue/Wed of next week. Pleasant weather will continue
across SE Texas until an upper level trough and associated cold
front approaches from the NW during the second half of the week
next week. Current thinking is that showers and thunderstorms will
reenter the forecast next Wednesday/Thursday with the actual cold
front arriving sometime in the Thursday/Thursday night time frame.
11

&&

TROPICAL WEATHER...
Matthew has become a category 1 hurricane despite a hostile environment
with wind shear across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Matthew will
continue moving west before turning to the NW and N over the
weekend. An upper level trough is still expected to develop over
the Gulf for the weekend and help move Matthew northward into the
western Atlantic. No impacts are expected for SE Texas. 39

&&

MARINE...
A cold front passed through SE Texas today and will cause gusty
winds of 15 to 20 knots and seas of 3 to 4 feet overnight tonight.
Small craft should exercise caution. High pressure will build into
Texas tomorrow and winds will begin to relax as the gradient weakens.
The high will shift to the east on Sunday night and onshore winds
will return to the coastal waters Sunday night. Onshore winds will
strengthen and likely persist for the first half of next week.
Another cold front will cross the coastal waters next Thursday or
Thursday night. 11

PREV DISCUSSION...

AVIATION.../18Z TAF/
Surface analysis has cold front off the coast with northerly winds
behind it. Expect VFR CIGS next 24-30hrs with winds decoupling
overnight and remaining light on Friday. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      57  81  60  83  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              58  82  62  85  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            69  80  71  82  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CDT Friday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31



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