Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 151846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1246 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

UPDATE... The forecast was strongly on track this morning, with
temps that tracked very close to forecast and scattered showers
with a thunderstorm or two. Of late, not only has fog dissipated,
but some breaks in the clouds have been seen, allowing for
temperatures to quickly jump into the middle 70s where the most
sun has been able to peek through. Additionally, showers have
become more numerous along a mesoscale boundary lifting into the
northern part of our area, and so have increased both PoPs across
the area and temps in the south. While the HRRR keeps the area
essentially dry in the wake of the northern showers and storms,
there is concern with offshore showers on radar, some favorable
jet placement, plenty of moisture, and potentially more
instability from higher than forecast temperatures. So have
instead opted to raise PoPs farther south rather than decrease
them as the model guidance might imply. Still, in deference to the
dry models, have kept them markedly lower than the likelies now in
place in the north.


Showers and a few thunderstorms lifting north nearing the CLL/UTS
TAF sites. Speed max moving over Coastal Bend/SETX area and
appears that it is helping to enhance storms in the north and
starting to help with RR and showers around Matagorda Bay. As the
speed max moves east and showers continue to develop with heating
may see some further enhancement and could see some isolated TSRA
develop in the vicinity of LVJ/HOU/IAH after 21z. Will be watching
closely for this to set up. Otherwise mix of VFR/MVFR cigs in the
deeper mixed airmass in the southern CWA...MVFR in the north.
After 02-05z window tonight CIGS should lower with stronger more
southerly trajectories. Expect mainly MVFR conditions turning into
IFR/LIFR CIGS after 09z across the region. Stratus deck should mix
out again Monday 15-16z as frontal boundary CLL around 18z.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms again a threat with late
morning/afternoon heating. CIGS at CLL may drop during the
afternoon if stalling front makes it through CLL (if so probably
after 20z).


College Station (CLL)      72  64  74  55  63 /  60  60  70  60  50
Houston (IAH)              75  66  77  62  71 /  40  40  50  60  60
Galveston (GLS)            74  63  70  63  70 /  30  30  40  50  40


     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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