Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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862
FXUS64 KHGX 011124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The cold/dry morning should give way to perhaps our last quiet wx
day...especially when compared to the upcoming forecast for these
next several days. Models remain in generally good agreement with
the prospects of periodic episodes of rain developing across much
of SE TX starting tomorrow (spreading from the SW) on through the
weekend. Low-level moisture progged to increase dramatically with
the strengthening onshore winds tomorrow...in response to the up-
per trof that will begin to deepen near the California Baja. This
system is expected to close off to a rather discrete upper low as
it moves east across northern Mexico into South Central TX on Sat.
An increasingly deep SW flow aloft will help to draw disturbances
across the state via the upper jet to help fuel widespread shower
activity. Rainfall could be further enhanced Sat/Sat night with a
coastal surface trof developing near/just off the lower/middle TX
coast. Very high PWs associated with this system (1.8"-2.0") will
be a concern regarding the potential for heavy rains. However the
heavy rain threat will likely be highly dependent on the track of
this coastal trof. And then to top it all off there is the poten-
tial for storms Mon as the main upper low moves across the region
(with a slight negative tilt and favorable upper jet position).

Perhaps a bit of a break from the rain on Tue, but the prevailing
SW flow aloft (with the longwave trof axis still to our west) may
help to keep some clouds in the area. Extended guidance indicates
a return of low POPS as a rather strong cold front sweeps through
next Wed/Thur. 41

&&

.MARINE...
NNE-NE winds this morning should gradually come around to the east
as high pressure over SETX drifts into LA. Seas should drop slightly
before beginning to build again as gradient tightens Friday. Over
the weekend pressures fall along the South Texas coast and moderate
to strong easterly flow forms with another round of hazardous seas
developing. Easterly flow will encourage higher tide levels and
increasing seas with runup should aggravate tide levels further.
SCEC/SCA conditions should be on tap Friday through Monday. Strong
thunderstorms over the coastal waters also a good possibility with
impressive shear and greater instability. Eventually (depending on
speed of the low`s departure) dry westerly flow wraps around the
system as it swings out to the east Monday or Monday night. Track of
the low will also dictate the location of the stationary/warm front
with it either onshore or over the nearshore waters Sunday and
Sunday night.
45
&&

.Aviation...
VFR with winds veering from light NE to E today. Some patchy fog may
be possible around LBX Friday morning. Over the weekend most sites
will be experiencing an extended period of low cigs/reduced
visibility and a mix of rain/showers/thunderstorms and enhanced
easterly winds.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      65  46  65  53  58 /   0  10  30  70  80
Houston (IAH)              67  47  64  55  65 /   0  10  30  70  80
Galveston (GLS)            65  58  70  66  68 /   0  10  50  70  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99



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