Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 150248
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
948 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WAS
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WAS HELPING TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT WHICH MOVED OFF THE COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS
AGO SHOULD BEGIN MOVING BACK TOWARD LAND LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. DID TWEAK THE CLOUD
COVER A BIT FOR THE UPDATE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE STILL EXTENDS INTO SE TX ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT THAT KEPT MOISTURE TRAPPED AND
SUPPORTING MVFR CIGS HAS WEAKENED. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER
ERODING OVER THE AREA SO EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO GIVE WAY TO VFR
THROUGH 01-02Z. THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
AT SOME OF THE RURAL TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME TERMINALS WITH
4-5SM VSBY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CIGS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TOMORROW. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHRA/TSRA BUT CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES HAVE REMAINED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS AGAIN HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO BE
HELD DOWN A BIT. THE SURFACE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS COOLER
AIR HAS QUICKLY PULLED OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING THE AIR
MASS TO MODERATE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOMORROW BRINGING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY START
TO COME BACK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T LOOK GREAT
THOUGH WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECASTED
TO BE AROUND 1.80" WITH K INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL BE OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES AND APPROACHING WAVE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA YESTERDAY. ON THE WATER VAPOR
THE WAVE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BOTH GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THE WAVE FORECASTED
TO CURRENTLY BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE EURO IS ONE OF THE FEW
MODELS TO HAVE THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH. YESTERDAY RAIN CHANCES
LOOKED GOOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THANKS TO MOISTURE STREAMING IN
FROM THE WAVE. NOW THAT THE WAVE IS FARTHER SOUTH PWAT VALUES ARE
NOT AS ENCOURAGING AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. 2.3" PWAT VALUES
YESTERDAY ARE NOW AROUND 2.00". UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THERE STILL EXISTS
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME ENERGY
FROM ODILE WILL START TO BE PICKED UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH STREAM WEAK PVA OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. 23

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  THIS AFTERNOON`S MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL CALL FOR LIGHT MAINLY EAST WINDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN WINDS A LITTLE MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST  (JUST A TAD STRONGER)
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME... ANTICIPATE MARINE
AREAS TO BE FLAG FREE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS. AS
FOR RAIN... BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO EDGE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  91  74  91  74 /   0  20  10  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  91  75  90  75 /   0  20  20  60  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  88  80  88  79 /  20  30  30  60  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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