Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 021540
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A NICE QUIET MORNING OVER THE CWA PER THE REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS...FROM THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DOWN TO THE MIDWESTERN-BASED SURFACE HIGH
EXPANDING BACK SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THE FEW OVERNIGHT
NORTHWESTERN GULF SHOWERS ALONG THE LAND BREEZE HAVE DISSIPATED
AND...UNDER A WEAK VEERING FLOW...THERE MAY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE-INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWER. THE LAST DAY FOR
SUB 50 PERCENT HUMIDITIES AS LOWERING WESTERN PLAINS PRESSURES
PULL IN A LARGE SCALE ONSHORE FLOW BY TOMORROW AND LIFT DEW POINTS.
AREAWIDE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW...MINIMUMS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM 70 F. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
OVERALL EXPECTING VFR CIGS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30HRS. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME HIGH
BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE JUST HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA WITH SEA/LAND BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST. 39

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SE TX WAS UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALSO LOCATED FROM LAKE SABINE TO ALONG
THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND THEN INLAND INTO METRO HOUSTON. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PATTERN
ALOFT WILL SLOWLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT AS THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE DRIFTS WESTWARD.

THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL ACTUALLY
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH A SEA BREEZE TO GENERATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE 00Z NAM12...00Z ARW/NMM...AND 06Z RAP13
ALL HAD AT LEAST SOME COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...CONTINUED THE ISOLATED POPS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED THE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EVENING
PERIOD TONIGHT. BEYOND THIS EVENING...WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AND ALSO UPSTREAM IN THE
PLAINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL TO DROP TO UNDER 10 PERCENT OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE AFTER TODAY ARE TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH TO AROUND 90 AND INTO THE LOWER 90S MOST
DAYS OVER THE INLAND AREAS. 40

&&

MARINE...
OVERALL FLAT SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT
WINDS. ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN OFFSHORE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING
EARLY THE FOLLOWING MORNING. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE OFFSHORE AREAS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      88  68  88  69  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              88  69  89  70  91 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            86  76  87  76  86 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/41


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