Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 202016
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
316 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTN CONVECTION WILL WANE TOWARD EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
BUT A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND REACH A
BRENHAM TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON LINE BY 12Z. AFTER A RESPITE FROM
THE PRECIP THIS EVENING...ANOTHER BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN ZONES BETWEEN 04-06Z AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTH REACHING THE CENTRAL ZONES AROUND SUNRISE. PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT WILL PROBABLY DECREASE A BIT IN THE MORNING BUT AM EXPECTING
DAYTIME HEATING TO RESTART CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN. CAPE
VALUES ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 2500-3000 J/KG WITH LI VALUES BETWEEN
-6 AND -8 AND AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A
FEW OF THE STORMS BECAME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL LINGER
NEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST THURS NIGHT AND NAM FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES ON THU/FRI. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS BETWEEN 82-85 DEGREES. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.9 INCHES ON SATURDAY BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800-600 MB SO CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
ON SATURDAY IS A BIT LOWER.

ON SUNDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW MEXICO. PW
VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.8 INCHES AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
DURING THE DAY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRUDGE EASTWARD
SUN NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING AS PW VALUES
APPROACH 2.0 INCHES AND SE TX FALLS INTO A RIGHT REAR QUAD. JET
DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
NEARS WEST TEXAS. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. TRAINING OF STORMS IS LIKELY AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET. THINGS CAN CHANGE...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT
LOOKS LIKE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED LATE IN THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. JET DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE INTO TUESDAY SO THE
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TRIES TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK BUT SE TX WILL LIE IN BETWEEN THE TWO
RIDGE ALLOWING DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA TO PERSIST. 43

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHTER ONSHORE WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COOL
FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY. MODERATE SE
WINDS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EXPECT SCEC WIND CONDITIONS BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY SUN AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MON. EXPECT MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS BY A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF ON SUN AND MON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY FOR THE 2ND HALF OF
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  81  70  82  71 /  40  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  84  72  83  72 /  20  50  30  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  82  77  82  77 /  10  50  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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