Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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417
FXUS64 KHGX 282113
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
413 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A dynamic upper level pattern will bring several rounds of stormy
weather to SE Texas throughout the forecast period. The first
round will begin early tomorrow morning as a cluster of showers
and thunderstorms approaches from the west and pushes through SE
Texas throughout the day and into the night tomorrow night. Some
of these storms may be strong to severe, with all modes of severe
weather including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes in
play. The greatest severe potential should generally occur during
the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow as the storms push into
the western half of the CWA. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible with this system, especially if it slows down as PWs
should spike up to around 1.6-1.75 during the afternoon. As far as
major changes to the forecast, some of the latest guidance
suggests a slightly earlier onset over the western zones than was
previously forecast, but otherwise not too much has changed from
the previous forecast package.

Once tomorrow`s system finally pushes out of the area, there will
be a brief lull in active weather until the next system approaches
sometime in the Saturday/Saturday night time frame and lasts
through the rest of the weekend. Some severe weather may also be
possible with this system as well, but the greater threat for this
weekend`s system will most likely be heavy rainfall.

Once this second system finally pushes out sometime on Monday,
another lull in action is expected before another front possibly
reaching SE Texas sometime around next Wednesday.
11

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the coastal waters and across SETX increasing and SCEC-SCA
conditions will prevail tonight. Seas should build to 7-9 feet
offshore. Elevated tide levels with stronger rip currents should
prevail. The southeast to south winds of 15-20 bays and 20-25 knots
over the Gulf waters will steadily build seas and with a long fetch
will maintain the elevated seas through early Wednesday. The SCA
will probably need extending. Once the Pacific front moves through
Thursday westerly to northwesterly flow will follow but mainly light
to moderate winds of 10 to 15 knots should be the strongest wake of
the front winds. Another storm system arrives Saturday and Sunday
and will ramp the winds back up again and SCA conditions will be
redeveloping.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      69  81  58  75  53 /  60  80  40  10   0
Houston (IAH)              71  83  66  79  57 /  20  80  50  20   0
Galveston (GLS)            72  78  69  76  66 /  10  70  60  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday morning
     for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...45



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