Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 200406
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1006 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.UPDATE...
More models are jumping on board with the Texas Tech WRF in
showing a little earlier arrival of the approaching system
overnight tonight. Current thinking puts the onset of showers and
storms to around 1 to 4 am for the Brazos Valley down to Matagorda
Bay, 3 to 6 am for the Houston metro, and 5 to 8 am for Liberty
County and around Galveston Bay. Of course, this is just the
onset, and showers and storms will likely impact SE Texas for much
of the day tomorrow. Some models including the HRRR are
suggesting the formation of a surface boundary which could be a
focus for training storms and heavier rainfall. Confidence on
where this boundary ends up focusing the heaviest rainfall is
low. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of SE Texas
from 3 am to 4 pm. 11/47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      64  72  57  76  55 / 100  70  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              69  72  61  76  59 /  80 100  30  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            68  70  63  72  62 /  60 100  50  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 3 AM CST Monday through Monday afternoon
     for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...
     Burleson...Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...
     Grimes...Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
     Montgomery...San Jacinto...Walker...Waller...Washington...
     Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Monday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
     NM.

&&

$$


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