Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 231138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF/
Satellite imagery and observations are showing patchy fog mainly
SW of Houston but impacting KLBX this morning. Fog will be close
to KSGR but not expecting any impacts the next few hours. Winds
should increase 15-18Z with a few gusts to 20 knots in the
afternoon and VFR ceilings.

Overnight there will be some very shallow moisture return ahead
of a cold front. Model soundings show possible IFR ceilings
developing and with winds decoupling, fog may be possible as well.
For now will go with IFR ceilings and visibility in TAFs but very
well could see LIFR conditions. Fog will largely depend upon
where winds can decouple since there will be a solid 35 knot LLJ
at 925-850mb which will cause some mixing. SREF probabilities of
fog still look high suggesting there will be some decoupling of
winds.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

UPDATE...
Patchy fog has formed over portions of the southwestern counties.
Update includes fog over portions of Jackson, Wharton, Matagorda,
and Colorado counties. Satellite and observations show that the
fog is fairly patchy; however, it could become more widespread
over these areas before lifting after sunrise.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge of high pressure will bring another warm and dry
day to Southeast Texas today. The ridge will push eastward as a
storm system moves across the northern Plains on Friday and pushes
a front across our forecast area. A model consensus keeps the
front dry until it gets well off the coast; although, patchy fog
may form late Thursday night/early Friday morning in advance of
the front. The front is expected to push over the forecast area
during the day Friday and off the coast Friday evening. Much
cooler temperatures will follow the cold front over the weekend.

Onshore winds will return Gulf moisture on Sunday and a warming
trend will occur during the first few days of the upcoming week.
A deeper trough is then expected to move across the plains on
Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will help push another front
across Southeast Texas on Wednesday. Slight chances of rain will
return on Sunday through Tuesday due to the increased Gulf
moisture and warm air advection. Slight better chances of showers
and thunderstorms are then expected on Wednesday ahead of the
frontal passage.

Temperatures will continue to be one of the main stories of the
next several days. Well above normal daytime highs are expected
today with some cooling on Friday with the front moving through.
Near or slightly cooler than normal daytime highs are expected on
Saturday. The trend to above normal daytime maximum temperatures
will return after the one day reprise, with 70s expected on Sunday
and Monday and lower 80s possible by Tuesday. Another frontal
system will help lower daytime temperatures on Wednesday.

Here is a brief look at the normal daytime highs as compared to
the forecast highs for the next several days. It is interesting to
note that the inland areas are expected to experience double digit
above normal highs on Monday while Galveston will stay near normal
both Sunday and Monday.

             ...Forecast Highs Compared to Normal...
                (from the 3:00 AM 2/23 Forecast)

Site  Normal  Thursday    Friday    Saturday    Sunday     Monday
       High   MaxT Dep   MaxT Dep   MaxT Dep   MaxT Dep   MaxT Dep

CLL     66     85  +19    80  +14    65  - 1    73  + 7    77  +11
GLS     66     73  + 7    75  + 9    66  + 0    65  - 1    66  + 0
IAH     68     83  +15    84  +16    69  + 1    72  + 4    79  +11

40

MARINE...
Southerly winds should increase today and tonight with gradually
building seas. Winds may reach 15 to 20 knots in offshore waters of
the Upper Texas coast tonight and exercise caution may be needed.
Models are in good agreement with a cold front pushing off the coast
Friday night with strong north to northeast winds developing by
Saturday morning. Winds will be borderline advisory level with
seas around 4 to 6 feet in most areas going into Saturday morning.

High pressure shifts east from the Plains to the Mississippi River
valley on Saturday. Winds turn to the southeast Saturday night into
Sunday while maintaining 15 to 20 knots. Caution flags may be needed
for most of Sunday and Sunday night. Winds weaken on Monday as the
pressure gradient slackens but the fetch of winds may still maintain
seas around 4 to 6 feet.

Tide levels have pushed about a half foot above normal with the
return of southerly winds today. Tides should be about a half foot
to a foot above normal going into the weekend. Tides may decrease
slightly with the cold front but the northeast winds can still
elevate tides for western areas of Galveston Bay.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      85  59  80  45  65 /   0  10  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)              83  63  84  49  69 /   0  10  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            74  65  75  57  67 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39


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