Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 281728
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop. Will carry VCTS at all TAF sites
with a TEMPO from 18-22z. Have added a wind gust group at all TAF
sites as well since fcst soundings show an inverted V signature.
Fcst soundings continue to advertise PW values in excess of 2.00
inches so vsby may fall below 3 miles in some spots in heavy rain.
Precip should end around 02z with additional SHRA possible near
the coast toward sunrise. Generally VFR conds expected outside of
areas with convection. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
GPS-Met data and aircraft soundings indicate atmos over SE Tx
more similar to 12Z soundings from LCH which indicate 2-2.2" PWs.
Sky remains mclear at 10am...but do anticipate a fairly rapid
increase in clouds & storms by early afternoon once readings make
it to 89-93F. Atmos should become quite unstable and the possibility
of some strong storms exists with winds being the primary threat.
Fcst soundings show a fairly distinct inverted-v profile by
21z/4pm. Morning analysis shows diffulent upper flow & will need
to keep an eye on eventual position of seabreeze/baybreeze where
storm mergers may enhance overall strength and rainfall amounts.
Update consisted to mainly minor tweaks to grids to match current
obs...the rest is about the same, but did include some iso svr &
heavy rain wording for the more susceptible spots. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      92  75  93  75  94 /  60  20  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)              92  75  92  75  93 /  60  40  30  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            88  79  89  80  89 /  50  50  40  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...43



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