Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHGX 220535
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 6 HRS FOR SE TX TERMINALS WILL BE CIGS. CIG
RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR FOR AREA AIRPORTS. THINK ALL AREAS WILL HAVE
AT LEST MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. THE
00Z NAM/GFS STILL SUPPORT 2 TIME FRAMES FOR CONVECTION WHICH THE
TAFS CAPTURE. THERE WILL BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS FOR
TIMING OF THE CONVECTION. FIRST ROUND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. SECOND ROUND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR STORMS TO BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 09Z SUN MORNING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE QUITE A BIT AFTER
PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. THE BEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WAS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE 00Z NAM12 AND THE HRRR BOTH
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM. CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY.

THE MAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE 00Z NAM12 AND HRRR ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 18Z
TEXAS TECH WRF. THE NAM12 AND HRRR PUSH AN INITIAL LINE OF STORMS
INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD.
A SQUALL LINE THEN DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TEXAS TECH WRF IS ABOUT 3
HOURS OR SO QUICKER WITH THE TIMING. AFTER LOOKING OVER THE 00Z
NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE CURRENT THINKING IS STILL IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT -- A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24-30HRS.
CIGS TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR FOR SE TX TERMINALS. THERE IS
SOME VFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD FILL BACK IN AT
MVFR LEVELS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IFR CIGS WHICH LOOK MORE
POSSIBLE OVER KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT COULD EASILY DEVELOP OVER THE
HOUSTON AREA IN THE MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
WITH 06Z TAFS SHOULD THERE BE MORE CONFIDENCE IN IFR DEVELOPING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AND MAY BECOME VFR IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS LIKELY. WILL STICK WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AT THIS MOMENT. UPPER LOW OVER AZ SHOULD BE OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY NEAR DRT BY 00Z SUN. LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE OVER SE TX
BY THIS TIME OR END OF CURRENT TAF. WAVE MAY INITIATE ONE ROUND OF
TSRA FOR THE AREA. MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES TO ACT/AUS BY 06Z BY
WHICH A 2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE AREA. ADDED PROB30
GROUP FOR IAH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TIMING. OBVIOUSLY TAFS WILL
UNDERGO SEVERAL CHANGES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES BUT THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT IS TO EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO
DISRUPT AIRPORT OPERATIONS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  74  58  78  47 /  30  90  80   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  76  61  79  51 /  20  80  90   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  74  66  78  56 /  20  70  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.