Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 170913
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
413 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
This morning`s main forecast problem will be patchy fog. The
NAMBufr model forecast soundings indicate that any fog that does
form should lift by mid morning. In the meantime, isolated showers
occurring south of LA are expected to spread into the Upper Texas
coastal waters this morning. High resolution models do show the
potential for isolated showers spreading inland during the
afternoon. Model soundings do show some decent CAPE values but the
cap will probably be too much to overcome. For this reason, think
the main chances for precipitation will be showers only.

Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur Monday
through Wednesday. The upper ridge overhead of the area will
break down as upper level troughs move across the northern and
central Plains. The ridge looks to begin building back overhead by
late in the week. This should lead to diminishing chances for
rain on Friday and Saturday.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy fog currently at LBX/CXO and should drop lower the next few
hours and will likely see fluctuations that bounce around between
VLIFR-MVFR. After warming up this morning-14z VFR conditions should
prevail with CU field and possibly a few showers beneath the
moderately strong cap. Will likely continue the mention of VCSH at
LBX/SGR/HOU and drop it further inland. Overnight tonight
expect patchy fog at the rural sites again.

45

&&

.MARINE...
Moisture increasing across the coastal waters this morning with
light east to southeast flow. Isolated showers should continue to
develop outside the marine areas and expand into them this morning.
Instability present but capping inversion should limit precipitation
to just showers today and tonight. Seas 1-3 feet should prevail
through Tuesday with a gradual uptick in wind speeds Tuesday night
and again Wednesday night. Short wave passing by through North TX
may be enough to edge winds up Tuesday night or Wednesday night to
SCEC but only briefly if reached. Wednesday coverage of showers
should be greater with deeper plume of tropical moisture exceeding
PW 1.9-2.0".

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      93  73  92  74  93 /  10  10  30  10  30
Houston (IAH)              93  74  91  75  91 /  20  10  40  10  40
Galveston (GLS)            88  78  86  78  86 /  20  20  30  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...45



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