Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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017
FXUS64 KHGX 120545
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF BASED ON LATEST DATA.
FOG DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERMINALS... ALTHOUGH 00Z
GUIDANCE VISIBILITIES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IFR INLAND
LIKELY OWING TO THE SHALLOW/LIMITED DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MIXING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
PER KHGX VAD WIND PROFILER. STILL CARRYING MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
INLAND SITES GENERALLY 11-15Z... BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPORARY DIPS TO IFR WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 15-16Z WITH SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A
DISTURBANCE SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TO BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z AT COLLEGE STATION/HUNTSVILLE AND
AFTER 00Z FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT... RAISING CONCERNS FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN FOR GALVESTON AND POSSIBLY ANGLETON BUT NOT
INCLUDING ANY CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS ATTM.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE LL MOISTURE WORKING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE REGION AS OF 00Z. AS WINDS RELAX AND
MOISTURE INTRUDES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS NORTH
IF/AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG TO THE SOUTH AND DELAYED THE ONSET ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL
AROUND 2 AM. ACROSS THE SOUTH IT MAY START CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
INLAND AND THEN SHORTLY AFTER FOR SEA FOG. STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT
HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CAN`T RULE OUT THE FORMATION OF DENSE
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IT.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      51  74  48  67  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  77  50  68  48 /   0  10   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  71  55  64  54 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14



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