Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 010451
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS REMAINING SO FAR TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH MAYBE
A MIX OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY FOR KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. THINK HOUSTON
TERMINALS STAY VFR FOR THE MORNING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS BUT SCT STRATOCU MORE LIKELY.

CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE THE TRICK FOR TOMORROW. MONITORING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE W GULF WHICH COULD SURGE NORTH AGAIN
TOMORROW. HAVE VCSH/VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL INITIATE SO
LEFT OUT MENTION IN KCLL/KUTS. MAY NEED TO ADD VCTS TO THESE TAFS
FOR 12Z UPDATE. WHILE NW FLOW WILL STILL BE PRESENT
TOMORROW...EXPECTATION IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A BUSY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HOUSTON
AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM THE HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM PEAKED AT 3 TO 4
INCHES...AND A LOT OF THAT FELL IN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD RESULTING IN
THE FLOODING AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND INTO THE AREA WITH A SUPPORTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND STRUCTURE.
DURING THE EVENT...WE WERE ABLE TO VIEW ONE RAINFALL RATE OF 0.56 INCHES
IN JUST 15 MINUTES!

EVERYTHING HAS CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING...AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WERE AROUND THE AREA TODAY. WE MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER
BUSY DAY...AND MORE DETAILS WILL COME WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. 42

CLIMATE...
HOUSTON IAH SET A RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE DAY TODAY WITH 2.26 INCHES
(OLD RECORD WAS 1.52 INCHES IN 1948). THIS BROUGHT THE MONTHLY TOTAL
UP TO 11.39 INCHES...WHICH MAKES JUNE 2015 THE 8TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD. ALSO...

- JUNE`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH MAY`S 14.17 INCHES MAKES THE TWO MONTH
TOTAL 25.56 INCHES WHICH IS 0.99 INCHES MORE THAN THE RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR ALL OF 2011 OF 24.57 INCHES.

- HOUSTON IAH`S YEARLY TOTAL FOR 2015 SO FAR IS 41.62 INCHES. THIS IS
MORE RAIN ALREADY THAN WE HAD IN A YEAR FOR BOTH 2013 AND 2011. THIS
IS ALSO WITHIN 2 INCHES OF THE YEARLY TOTALS OF 2014...2012...AND 2010.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA
ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED
TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE
MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART
THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION
WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  92  76  92  76 /  10  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  76  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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