Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 222326
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES
BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM CONUS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE OF A MIDWESTERN
SURFACE RIDGE FILLING IN ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A NEW ENGLAND
NOR`EASTER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER LEVEL NORTH TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN NEEDED TO KEEP MEAN LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEW
POINTS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
NOW RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ASSERT A BIT OF AN
INFLUENCE UPON EASTERN TEXAS...IF NOTHING MORE THAN TO FORTIFY
PRECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MIX OUT WILL HAVE SURFACE
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO UNDER 50% THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PACIFIC NW
ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER AMPLIFIED WESTERN UPPER RIDGING WILL
DIVE DOWN AND DEEPEN A LATE WEEK MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH WHILE THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS CHAIN
OF EVENTS WILL AID IN VEERING EASTERLIES AROUND TO ONSHORE BY THE
COB SUNDAY. THE EASTERN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE EQUATES TO
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES AND MAKES THIS SET OF PRODUCTS PRIMARILY
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FORECASTS.

THE REGION MAY GET CLIPPED BY A THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS...IN
TANDEM WITH UPPER RIDGING ENVELOPING TEXAS...WILL VEER MID-LEVEL
WINDS AROUND TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR WEST COMPONENT. FLATTENED MID-
UPPER RIDGING/NORTHERN GULF SURFACE HIGH...WITH WEAK ROCKY MOUNTAIN
TROUGHING...MAY VEER MID-LEVEL WINDS ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO WARM
SUBSEQUENT DAYS BY A FEW DEGREES. 10-5H THICKNESS VALUES ARE
MODELED TO INCREASE BY AN ADDITIONAL 50 OR 60 METERS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FROM MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL REGULATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMTH...BUT HAVE INCREASED WEEKEND T NUMBERS BY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO SIDE WITH THE LOW STD DEV MEN NUMBERS.
EXTENDED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A PASSING TROUGH/FROPA HAVE JUST KEPT SLIGHT OR
LOWER POPS IN GRIDS. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED THE FASTER MORE
SHALLOWER TROUGH PASSAGES (GFS) SO WILL REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON WHEN TO
BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE DISCUSSION. 31

MARINE...
TD 9 LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE DEPRESSION
MOVES EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
06Z FOR MAINLY ELEVATED SEAS...BUT SEA HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DAMPEN OUT WITH TIME. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A
HALF FOOT OF NORMAL.

A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
SPEEDS WILL APPROACH SCEC CRITERIA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38



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