Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KHGX 292043
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAYS FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE THE TALE OF 3 FRONTS. THE
FIRST FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH SE TX. WIND SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AT KSGR AND KHOU IN 20Z OBS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS AT LEAST
MADE IT THAT FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS ARE
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S UNDER CLOUD COVER WITH MVFR CIGS. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT KHGX 88D HAS PICKED UP A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND IN
FACT ONE OF THOSE SHOWERS DUMPED SOME RAIN HERE AT THE OFFICE AT
THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO THAT COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. IMPACTS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA
OF A FEW STORM SO THE 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK FOR
THE SHORT TERM. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE BY 01-03Z TONIGHT.

FRONT 1 SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH OUT INTO THE GULF WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND IT INTO THUR MORNING. LIGHT/MODERATE NE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. THIS
STILL SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THURSDAY FRONT 2 SHOULD COME INTO THE PICTURE AND WILL HAVE A MUCH
LARGER IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THIS AFTERNOON THE CANADIAN COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED AT THE CANADA/MONTANA BORDER AND SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW. A 1036MB SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVER THE
PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR FRONT 2 TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRI
MORNING. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY RAIN CHANCES SO TOOK OUT
ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION FRI INTO SAT SO MAX TEMPS FRI ARE UNDER GUIDANCE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. SAT MORNING LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE 40S TO START OUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S LOOK ON
TRACK. LOOK FOR 850MB TEMPS TO LINGER AROUND 10-11C FOR THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW DOES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW.

THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT 18 HRS APART IN FRONTAL PASSAGE OF FRONT
3. THE 12Z GFS HAS FRONT 3 COMING THROUGH HOUSTON AROUND 18Z TUE
WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT TO HOUSTON BY 12Z WED OF NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING AT MODEL TRENDS AND CONSISTENCY...LEANING A BIT MORE
ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE IS A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE
FROM THE 00Z GFS RUN. THAT SAID THE 12Z GFS IS CLOSER TO THE 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. FOR NOW WILL HEDGE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
UNTIL MODEL DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED.

EVEN THOUGH THIS IS DAY 6/7 OF THE FORECAST...DESERVES MENTION
THAT THERE WILL BE A INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STREAMING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HANGS BACK OVER THE S
ROCKIES. THE SLOWER ECMWF WILL GIVE MORE TIME FOR THIS MOISTURE TO
RIDE OVER THE ROCKIES INTO TX. GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT COULD
INTERACT WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
(PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES PER GFS). RAIN CHANCES OF 30/40
PERCENT LOOK ON TRACK DURING THIS TIME BUT COULD BE HIGHER. THIS
MIGHT BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN
AROUND SE TX THE LAST WEEK WHICH HAS BEEN DRY.

39


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH OFF SHORE FRIDAY. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED IN OFFSHORE AREAS.
THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE
FLOW TO RESUME AND QUICKLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON SUNDAY.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  80  56  73  44 /  10  10  10  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  56  75  47 /  10  10  10  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  77  64  74  56 /  20  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.