Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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211
FXUS64 KHGX 280822
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A welcome quiet and dry fall morning is underway for Southeast
Texas, with 3 AM CDT temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low
70s. Early morning surface analysis showed a remnant frontal
boundary stretching from the northwest Gulf towards Mississippi,
with a coastal trough draped from the Upper Texas coastal waters
south towards the Tamaulipas coastline. Farther north, another
cold front was located across Nebraska and into the Great Lakes.
Water vapor imagery showed a cutoff low drifting north into
California/Arizona with west/northwest flow aloft ahead of this
feature drawing mid and upper level Pacific moisture across Texas.
Also noted was another closed low over the Great Lakes with a
compact disturbance rotating south along the British Columbia
coast.

Drier air will continue to filter into the region today, allowing
for a cool start this morning but enabling temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Expect quiet weather to
continue across the region today with little more than a few
passing mid/high clouds as Pacific moisture continues to stream
overhead, but an isolated shower (and maybe even a thuderstorm)
will be possible across the offshore waters this morning with weak
convergence along the coastal trough. As the upper low over the
Great Lakes wobbles south today, it will send the cold front over
the Central Plains surging towards Southeast Texas and reach the
region by late tonight. Otherwise, expect quiet conditions to
continue overnight with lows ranging from the upper 50s and mid
60s inland to upper 60s to low 70s along the coast.

Little more is expected with the front as it clears the region on
Thursday than increasing northerly winds 10-15 MPH (with some
stronger gusts during the afternoon) and a reinforcing shot of dry
air. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs to climb into the 80s. Dry
and clear conditions overnight Thursday will encourage enough
radiational cooling for temperatures to fall into the upper 50s in
many locations north of Interstate 10 (although urban heat island
effects may keep the Houston metro slightly warmer in the low to
mid 60s). Regardless, Friday morning will be one of the coolest
mornings we`ve seen since early May... and yes, some may need a
jacket as they head to work or school.

Upper ridging over Texas begins to flatten on Friday as the low
over California/Arizona becomes and open wave and lifts northeast,
with dry and pleasant conditions continuing through the weekend as
the remains closed off from Gulf moisture. It will be a fantastic
weekend for outdoor activites with cool mornings (lows in the mid
50s to mid 60s) and mild afternoons (highs in the mid 80s). Dry
weather is expected to continue into the beginning of next week,
but surface high pressure sliding east of the region and onshore
flow resuming may allow for enough moisture to move back into
Southeast Texas for low diurnally driven rain chances to return to
the forecast Tuesday.

The low off the British Columbia coast this morning is expected
to translate east over the next several days, reaching the West
Coast by the end of the weekend and the Great Plains by the middle
of next week. As this storm system moves across the country, it
may send another cold front across Southeast Texas (and possibly
bring widespread rain chances back to the region) mid to late next
week.

Huffman

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over west Texas will move slowly east and weaken
tonight. Low pressure over the northern plains will move southeast
and an associated cold front will push south Wednesday night. The
cold front will cross the coastal waters early Thursday. North
winds will gradually increase on Thursday and Thursday night in
the wake of the front. High pressure will build into Texas on
Friday behind the front and winds will begin to relax as the
gradient weakens. The high will move east on Sunday and onshore
winds will return to the coastal waters. Onshore winds will
strengthen and likely persist for the first half of next week. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      88  63  83  58  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              87  66  87  61  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            87  75  87  71  80 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43



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