Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO IMMEDIATE CHANGE TO EARLIER PACKAGE. THE ONLY MENTIONABLE
CHANGE WAS TO ADD IN AFTERNOON PROB30`S FOR -TSRA FROM METRO
SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
IN INHIBITING MONDAY CONVECTION...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH LL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE NEAR COASTAL AIR MASS TO PLACE IN THAT
SLIGHT CHANGE OF CONVECTION FORMING ON THE LOCAL BREEZES (ONCE
THE LOWER 90S ARE MET). CONFIDENCE OF SOUTHERN THIRD HUBS EXPERIENCING
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON -SHRA OR -TSRA IS 20 TO 30 PERCENT. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED SKY AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. ALSO TOOK OUT SMALL AREA OF EVENING SHOWERS THAT WERE
INSERTED EARLIER BASED ON OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE MAINLY QUIET OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE
OUT SOME STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING VERY LATE AT THE COAST AS
THEY DID LAST NIGHT. TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...HEAT
INDICES GETTING CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD NEED HEAT
INDEX OF 108 FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY. NO
MATTER WHAT THE NUMBERS TURN OUT TO BE...WILL BE LOOKING AT HOT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LBX AND SGR`S VICINITY DYING OUT WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. RETURN SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ROUGE THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TERMINALS...BUT TOO LOW
OF A CHANCE AND TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION WITHIN THIS PACKAGE.
THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A CALM WIND FIELD AND
CLEARER OVERNIGHT SKIES...FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HUBS TO BRIEFLY
EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
OF SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION MVFR IS COMMUNICATED THROUGH EARLY
MORNING TEMPOS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL
AFFECT REGIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA.

RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
OFF TO THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S BY
TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...TO BETWEEN 105 AND 107 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT
AND PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. AN
INTERESTING PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF ALASKA PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE DEEPENING AND DIVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A BIT OF RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE AS RIDGE OVER THE ARKLATEX/LA AREA
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. SEAS BUILDING FROM 1-2 FEET TO 2-4 FEET BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  94  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  90  81  91  81 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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