Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 162015
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION SO FAR IN OUR CENTRAL
AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE MORE DAYS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/LIFT
IN THE FORM OF HARD TO TIME MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT
OF ODILE`S CIRCULATION OUT WEST COULD END UP SUPPORTING THE AREA`S
PROLONGED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME SPOTS EVEN GETTING SOME OF THEIR
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
TO BE POSSIBLE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS WITH
DAILY TOTALS IN A 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. IF THESE TOTALS OCCUR OVER THE
SAME SPOTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL HAPPEN. AT THIS TIME...A FLOOD
WATCH IS NOT NEEDED. IF ACCUMULATIONS START TO ADD UP...FLOOD WATCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LESS COVERAGE CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  42
&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BRIEFLY
PICK UP AGAIN IN THE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH OF WINDS OVER THE
WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT THOUGH. WILL
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. 23


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FORM AND CONCENTRATE
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A BOUNDARY AT
850 MB. CURRENTS PWATS FROM GPS MET ARE AROUND 2.20" WITH K INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID 30S. LIFT TODAY WILL COME FROM DAY TIME HEATING
AND A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. HIGH RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING PRECIP CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE INLAND AND
EVENTUALLY FILLING IN TODAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY FILL AROUND
INTERSTATE 10 NORTH TO ABOUT KUTS. HIGH RES MODELS THEN QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TOMORROW AS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
REMAIN IN PLACE. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  90  74  90  72 /  30  60  30  60  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  89  74  89  74 /  30  60  30  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  78 /  40  60  40  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23



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