Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 240245
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
945 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
It is quiet this evening with just a couple showers off the coast.
Some inland locations could see areas of fog develop overnight then
lift tomorrow morning after sunrise.  42
&&

.CLIMATE...
College Station`s August rainfall total (through the 23rd) stands at
8.12 inches which is 6.28 inches above normal. The 8.12 inches is
currently the 5th wettest August on record.

Houston Intercontinental Airport`s August rainfall total (through the
23rd) stands at 9.14 inches which is 6.53 inches above normal. The
9.14 inches currently stands as the 8th warmest August on record.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
Showers beginning to wane with the loss of heating in UTS`s
vicinity. Mainly clear skies through midnight with anticipated
pre-dawn MVFR decks that will persist through late morning. A very
weak wind field with more saturated soils will be conducive to
lowering ceilings to IFR (or LIFR) with pockets of near sunrise
shallow, dense fog. Higher probabilities for IFR ceilings will
focus north of the city over more rural hubs with the better
chances for any visibility-limiting fog occuring over CXO and hubs
surrounding Houston. Widely scattered early to mid Wednesday afternoon
thunderstorms have placed in the mention of late period VCTS. 31

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...

Overall, keeping the forecast trend about the same as previous
forecast, with some minor adjustments which is typical for this
time of year.

IR satellite imagery is showing drier air moving in from the east
toward SE Texas. Thus, am expecting a lull in the activity for
Wednesday and probably into Thursday (however did not go too much
lower on rain chance just yet, as ECMWF is showing a better
moisture increase on Thursday than the GFS). After that question
however, moisture increases once again and rain chances increase
as well, as a TUTT approaches from the east. Best chance for
showers/storms appears to be Thursday night and Friday. After
that, looks like chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms
continue over the area through at least Sunday (and possibly into
early next week) as precipitable waters are over 2 inches and
ECMWF mean RH fields remain high. After the weekend, looks like
moisture remains sufficient for isolated to scattered convection
Monday and Tuesday. The good thing about the rain chance is that
it will continue to keep daytime temperatures from getting too
warm. Concerning temperatures, generally went with a blend of
previous forecast and National Guidance, which resulted in not too
many big changes anyway. Overall, forecast is not untypical for
late August in SE TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  92  74  91  74 /  10  10  10  30  20
Houston (IAH)              76  93  76  91  76 /  10  30  10  50  30
Galveston (GLS)            82  89  81  88  79 /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31



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