Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 191631
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1031 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL COME TO AN
END BY 21/22Z. HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THIS.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE SW ZONES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THAT IS UNLIKELY TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON. 13

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
A TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY
PERIOD HIGHER FREQUENCY OF MORE MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDER LEADING
TO IFR CATS...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. A LATE
DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AID IN SCOURING OUT LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...BUT WILL CREATE A LOW ENOUGH MOIST INVERSION TO MAINTAIN
IFR CATS IN PLACE FROM MID-LATE FRIDAY ENDING THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13



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