Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291556
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1056 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN PROBS ARE ON THE RISE PER HIGHER REGIONAL MOISTURE...A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AND FAIR UPPER
LEVEL DIFFULENCE. HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN
TEXAS/WESTERN LA IS WHERE THIS MORNING`S PRECIPITATION RESIDES...
EASTERN FORECAST AREA SHOWERS WITH A NW GULF MCV (FROM OLD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW) GENERATING FAR SE`ERN MARINE ZONE THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR 90F
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET SHORTLY AFTER NOON SO
EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
...RANDOM IN COVERAGE. EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER MAY END UP KEEPING
MANY SITES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...VERSUS YESTERDAY WHERE
MANY TOPPED OUT IN THE UPPER 90S. THE WEEKLY TREND IS FOR MORE
OVERCAST AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL REGULATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
MAX/MIN NUMBERS CLOSER TO SEASON NORMS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
AFTER SOME MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH. 12Z TAFS HAVE A 19Z OR 20Z START TO THE CONVECTION...
ROUGHLY BETWEEN CXO AND GLS. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THEIR
WAKE. 42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO OUR EAST HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT
AND IS PUSHING OFF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES LEFTOVER FROM THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT. FEEL
THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE THUS CONTINUED THE LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEIGHTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 100-103 THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT LATER THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH THIS MORNING
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS WEEK AND THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD...DRIVING THE FRONT AHEAD OF IT. BEST RAIN CHANCES NOW
APPEAR TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MODELS KEEPING SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION AS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS/SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION/ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  73  96  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  77  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  90  81  91 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/40


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