Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 160030
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions at the inland terminals gradually deteriorate to
IFR/LIFR near the coast where a persistent sea fog bank is
beginning to advect inland. Deeper mixing this afternoon than
yesterday and a southerly 30 knot low level jet overnight should
allow for VFR conditions to persist inland through the evening
hours (roughly 06Z) then deteriorate to IFR or LIFR after 06Z as
the weakening jet allows for lower ceilings and visibilities to
develop inland. UTS and CLL may only see a brief window for these
lowered ceilings after 10-12Z with all terminals except GLS
improving to MVFR by mid to late morning. Sea fog lingering along
the coast may mean IFR/LIFR conditions persist into the mid-
afternoon hours.

Evening surface analysis shows a cold front moving into the
Southern Plains out of Kansas and expect this boundary to reach
CLL, UTS, CXO, and possibly IAH during the afternoon hours.
Southerly winds 10-15 knots this evening ahead of this front are
expected to decrease 5-7 knots overnight and veer to the southwest
by midday. After frontal passage, expect north to northwest winds
5-7 knots and MVFR ceilings as low level moisture remains trapped
beneath the post-frontal inversion.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Despite persistent onshore winds the past couple days, the lack
of a significant boundary and strong mid level ridging centered offshore
has limited precip. What it has allowed for is continued sea fog.
And that probably won`t change until at least Saturday night &
quite possibly longer.

A weak front will make its way into southeast Texas Friday then
probably stall around the Highway 59 corridor as it begins to lose
its upper support. This boundary will likely meander between
Highway 59 and near, or just off, the coast thru Saturday
evening. Look for fairly good chances of rain across northern
parts of the area. Closer to the coast (& proximity of the upper
ridge) there won`t be as much forcing so chances diminish as one
goes south. Should this front not make it off the coast, the
already prolonged period of sea fog will continue well into next
week.

The stalled front will move back north as a warm front on Sunday
as lee side pressures fall. Another stretch of warm and humid wx
will then persist into the middle of next week. Rain chances
should increase going into midweek as a southwest flow aloft
becomes more prominent and the next front makes its way into the
region. 47

MARINE...
Periods of sea fog (some dense) are expected to persist through the
rest of the week and likely into the weekend as the general weather
pattern stays in place. Light/moderate onshore winds will help keep
the warm airmass in place over the cooler nearshore waters.  A weak
cold front is expected to move into southeast Texas on late Fri and
then stall near coast Sat. Strengthening onshore winds and building
seas can be expected late Sun when the frontal boundary washes out.
41

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      63  68  50  60  52 /  10  20  30  60  30
Houston (IAH)              66  77  57  69  54 /  10  20  20  40  30
Galveston (GLS)            64  73  61  69  59 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14



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