Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 251733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Scattered SHRA and TSRA are developing near the southern
terminals (IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS) early this afternoon, with
activity expected to spread into the northern terminals with
continued heating. IFR to MVFR conditions are possible in
convection from locally heavy rain, but VFR conditions are
expected through the end of the TAF period. Cloud debris from
storms today may provide enough sky cover overnight to limit fog
development, but if skies do clear... MVFR visibilities will be
possible early to mid-morning Monday.

Will have to monitor trends for adjustments in timing of
TSRA/SHRA at terminals and have low confidence in trends beyond 6
hours given the weak flow aloft and presence of several outflow
boundaries across Southeast Texas. Expect most activity to wane
this evening with loss of daytime heating, but energy from a mid-
level disturbance shearing out across the region may provide
enough lift to keep SHRA going overnight... or start it earlier
than advertised in the 25/18Z TAF package (sometime between 06-12Z
Monday). Another round of scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA is
expected during the day Monday. Otherwise, light northeast to east
winds 5-10 knots are expected to prevail but variable directions
are possible near convection or any boundaries that move across
the terminals.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

Messy surface pattern this morning and subsequent forecast for
this afternoon. Primary surface cold front extends across sern TX
from srn LA into nrn Mexico. Boundary is masked in sections from
numerousmesoscale boundaries resulting from earlier and ongoing
moist convection. In addition, several boundaries remain
convectively active just off the coast which should push inland
through the late morning/early afternoon. A persistent cluster of
showers/tstms near Lake Livingston should continue to gradually
diminish late this morning, while showers increase to the south
and west of this activity. Both CRP and LCH soundings indicate
convective temps around 85-86F suggesting showers and tstms will
become increase/develop with continued heating across most of the
region, focused along surface boundaries. With little or no
steering flow and abundant moisture /PWs near 2"/, we expect heavy
downpours with any stronger cores.

Have bumped PoPs a little and tweaked grids to better match
ongoing conditions. Otherwise, current forecast on track.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

Showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing across SE Texas should
continue to diminish this morning. If the current activity
dissipates in the next few hours, there will be some time for
clearing and heating to kick off another round of showers and
storms this afternoon/evening. This second round will likely be
scattered in coverage and is handled with VCTS wording in the
tafs as more specific timing will be hard to pin down before it
actually begins to fire up. Otherwise, low cigs currently over the
northern half of the area should lift to VFR through the morning.
Some MVFR cigs may develop again overnight tonight, but these were
left SCT in the taf as confidence is on the low side for now.  11

An unsettled weather pattern will continue this week with periods of
showers and thunderstorms expected each day through at least mid
week. Generally light to occasionally moderate easterly to
southeasterly flow is expected through mid week, at which time the
flow becomes more southerly and increases as SE Texas becomes wedged
in between surface high pressure over the E CONUS and a low pressure
system over the lee of the Rockies.

Tides still seem to be running about 1.0-1.5 feet above normal this
evening, and this will likely continue for the next several days.
High tide this morning should come in near or just below 3 feet,
which should keep the threat of wave run up over Hwy 87 on Bolivar
relatively low in comparison to previous mornings. However, the
easterly to southeasterly flow over the next several days could
produce strong rip currents and longshore currents along Gulf-facing
beaches, and a Beach Hazards Statement for hazardous swimming
conditions may be required later this morning.  11


College Station (CLL)      71  89  72  90  72 /  30  40  20  30  20
Houston (IAH)              73  88  73  89  73 /  30  50  20  40  20
Galveston (GLS)            78  87  78  87  79 /  30  30  30  40  40




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