Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 122057
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014


.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AND TRAVERSE THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FEET POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 4-6 FEET OFFSHORE.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BUT THEN THE WAVE OVER FLORIDA
WILL BE THE NEXT ISSUE. AT PRESENT MOST GUIDANCE TAKES A
DISORGANIZED WAVE INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
BUT IF IT DEVELOPS THEN THESE TRACKS MAY NEED CHANGES. MARINERS
SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN MINOR STREET
FLOODING ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT
MORE SERIOUS IMPACTS. FURTHER NORTH COVERAGE IS INCREASING FROM
NEAR COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO TRINITY AS MOISTURE POOLS
AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY SO HAVE
LEFT LOWER POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PLACE.

THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
THE EVOLUTION OF INVEST AL92 WHICH IS TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS DISPLAYED A WELL ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY AS IT
CROSSED LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OFFSHORE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO NOT DO MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
ORGANIZATION AND KEEP IT AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF. WHETHER IT BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED OR NOT IT WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE FOR RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AND WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE
WEEKEND. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  79  68  86  71 /  60  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  86  69  88  73 /  60  40  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  86  77  86  81 /  60  40  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...45


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