Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 112122
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. A FAIRLY LARGE
CAP WILL BE IN PLACE BUT SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON
MONDAY.

WITH THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE ON THE RISE...AS SEEN BY INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE GUIDANCE
ARE ALL SHOWING THE BEST TIME PERIOD TO BE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE FOG LIFTING BY MID MORNING. IF SEA FOG
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ONSHORE...THE FOG MAY LINGER OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS LONGER. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS CONDUCIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES. A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY
SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IF THE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...COULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 80.
HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND. SOME COOLING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN STARTING ON
TUESDAY. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE FAR INLAND AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS
BUT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A BIT LONGER FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL
MAINTAIN CAUTION FLAGS FOR NOW. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARMER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE
COAST SOMETIME ON MONDAY. 47

&&

.FIRE...
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY. VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 30-45%
NW OF HIGHWAY 59 ON FRIDAY AND 45-65% FURTHER SE. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THEY WERE TODAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY THE GUSTINESS. 47

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY SW WINDS...NO REAL CONCERNS THRU THE LATE
EVENING HOURS W/ VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. TIME PERIOD FROM 9-15Z
(3AM-9AM CST) BECOMES QUITE TRICKY. ALMOST ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS FOG ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SE TX...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. DIGGING INTO THE DATA A LITTLE BIT
MORE...MOST SHOW SFC TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS DON`T REALLY GO BELOW
2-5F AND SW FLOW 10-25KT JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO 2000FT SUGGESTS AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL MIXING. SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG LIKE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION SAW LAST
NIGHT. TWEAKED FCST VISBY`S DOWN FROM THE 12Z PACKAGE...BUT NOT
QUITE READY TO GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST
YET. TRANSITION BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15-16Z FRI. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      51  74  48  67  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  77  50  68  48 /   0  10   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  71  55  64  54 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47


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