Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260845
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OVER THE PAST DAY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED A
TOUCH EAST WITH NORTHERN AMPLIFICATION...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL BE ADVECTING IN A NEAR 1 INCH PWAT
AIR MASS FROM LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHER THAN
ONE LONE SHOWER OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN MARINE ZONE...THE
RADAR IS QUIET AND THE CONTINUED EASTERN EXPANSION OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY REGIONAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE RESIDENT DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL
LINGER ON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY (PER A REINFORCING NORTHEASTERN
FLOW PATTERN) WILL ALLOW DAYS TO WARM UP QUICKLY INTO THE 90S AND
ACHIEVE AVERAGE MIDDLE 90S...EXTREMES WILL CENTER OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS MAY
REACH THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BEST BE FELT OR ENJOYED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE INTERIOR MID-UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG COAST WILL
BE MOST REALIZED IN AVERAGE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. AS NORTHERN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...PLEASANT LATE WEEK WEATHER UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A VARIABLE BREEZE.

ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH/CENTRAL CONUS-CENTERED RIDGE REMAINS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF OUR WEEKEND WEATHER...SLOWLY LOWERING
MID-UPPER HEIGHTS WITH A RETURN FLOW OF THE GULF INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY. THIS WILL THICKEN UP CLOUDS
AND PROVIDE AN UPTICK TO EARLY WEEK SOUTHERN COUNTY/MARITIME RAIN
PROBABILITIES. BY MONDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE VICINITY OF THIS
LOW...OR ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT...WILL DETERMINE NEXT WEEK`S
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. AS OF NOW...THE GFS RETROGRADES THIS LOW BACK
TOWARDS THE BIG BEND WHILE THE ECMWF STICKS THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EXPANDS IT UP THE COASTLINE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
THIS LATTER MORE WET SOLUTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO AT LEAST HIGH END OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON FROM AROUND TUESDAY ON THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THUS...AFTER 4 TO 5 DAYS OF MAINLY CLEAR...WARM AND RELATIVELY
DRY WEATHER...THIS SOUTHERN-BASED UPPER LOW SCENARIO WILL TRANSITION
NEXT WEEK`S THEME TO CLOUDIER...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE HUMID WITH
HEIGHTENED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. 31

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT THIS
MORNING & EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FILTERS INTO
THE AREA. MAY SEE SOME SCT TSTMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF
FREEPORT THIS MORNING AS WELL. GRADIENT/WINDS WEAKEN LATER IN THE
DAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE A WEAK SEA BREEZE TRY TO MOVE ONSHORE
TOWARD EVNG. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SE THURS NIGHT AND PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND. NO FLAGS
ANTICIPATED. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING AS
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE.
VFR CONDITIONS & MCLR SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTN INTO THURS. 47

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  68  97  67  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  69  96  71  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  77  92  80  92 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31



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