Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221738
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE. BEST SHRS/TSRA CHANCES LOOK TO
BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS STARTING UP
NORTH (IN/AROUND A CLL TO UTS AREA) AND ALSO MAYBE NEAR THE
COAST (LBX AND GLS). EXPECT MULTIPLE TAF AMENDMENTS AS THE
SHRA/TSRA COMPLEX EVOLVES ON INTO THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH +SHRA/+TSRA AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND ANTICIPATE SKC
ENTIRE AREA AFTER 18Z WITH SSW/SW WINDS 9-13 KNOTS.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WE/VE
BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON THE PAST FEW DAYS DIGGING INTO THE BIG BEND
AS OF 11 AM...WITH LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING /COURTESY CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WAA/ HAVE REMAINED PRIMARILY OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON... BUT
CONCERNED ABOUT THE ROLE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY IN
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER WITH 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...CAN/T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM /PWATS APPROACHING
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AT AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ SO
MINOR STREET FLOODING WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA BASED ON TRENDS AND LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT GIVEN CLOUD COVER.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  59  79  46  64 /  90  90   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  62  80  51  66 /  90  90   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  66  76  57  65 /  60  80   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42


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