Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 241624

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1124 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Scattered showers are continuing to move inland from the coast
this morning, with a little more coverage over the eastern zones
than was originally anticipated. Have adjusted the PoPs for this
morning and afternoon accordingly. The rest of the previous
forecast appears to be on track. High temperatures this afternoon
are forecast to range from the upper 80s to the low 90s, with heat
index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.




Shower activity has increased offshore across the Gulf waters of
the Upper Texas Coast. Shower activity should spread inland but
may stay west of most of the terminals. At this point convection
should be isolated enough to amend TAFs as needed for shower
activity. Overall VFR CIGS should prevail today with S/SE winds.



Early this morning SE Texas was caught between an upper low
moving inland over northeastern Mexico and a broad upper level
high pressure ridge over the northern part of the state. PW/s
overhead were generally around 1.3 inches at 3 AM; however, a more
moist airmass was moving northward from the southern Gulf around
the east side of the upper low (the RAP analysis on the SPC
website showed PW/s in the southern Gulf around 2 inches). The
most likely scenario for today is that the drier airmass will stay
over the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area but
that the more moist airmass will affect the coastal and
southwestern areas. This should lead to isolated to scattered
rainfall coverage today.

Better chances will occur on Saturday as the upper level ridge
retreats eastward and allows deeper layer moisture to move
overhead. The models are then in good agreement with the center of
the ridge building back overhead on Sunday. Thus, better rainfall
coverage is expected on Saturday with less on Sunday.

There are still some differences between the models as to the high
pressure ridge`s movement through the work week. Both the GFS and
ECMWF indicate that a backdoor cold front will sink southward as
the main ridge builds westward. Still, each differs on coverage
due to competing solutions on the strength of the ridge over the
state. Also expect some seabreeze activity each day. Thus,
generally kept isolated to scattered rainfall possibilities from
Monday through Thursday.


Weak upper level low over the Rio Grande Valley will support an
increase in moisture through the Upper Texas Coast. Radar already
shows some shower activity just beyond the 60 nm waters which are
moving towards the coast. Widely scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms may be possible later this morning and into the
afternoon. Along the coast, a sea breeze should develop again
which could support showers and thunderstorms inland today and
tomorrow. Overall moderate southerly winds will continue into the
weekend, but decrease early next week as high pressure over the
northern Gulf expands. This will allow for low seas through next



College Station (CLL)      93  75  92  76  93 /  20  10  30  10  20
Houston (IAH)              93  76  93  76  94 /  30  10  40  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            90  82  90  82  90 /  30  20  20  10  20




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