Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 181103
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
603 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRANSIENT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES
WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING VFR. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE COME IN
DRIER FOR RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOW PWAT VALUES AROUND AVERAGE VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
K INDEX VALUES AROUND 30 FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS FARTHER TOWARDS THE NORTH AT KCLL WHERE NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW K INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO 40 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS NORTHWARD GRADIENT MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
SHEAR AXIS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SOME MVFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING BUT CHANCES LOOK LOW FOR THIS
GIVEN WINDS STAYING UP AND POSSIBLE OVERRIDING CIRRUS. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY SHOULD UNFORTUNATELY BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY IN THE WEATHER
ARENA. ALONG THE COAST YESTERDAY HEAT INDEX READING REACHED OR
EXCEED 108 (PEAKED AT 110 AT GALVESTON)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INLAND AND MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 10 AM
THROUGH 8 PM WHICH SHOULD COVER THE WINDOW WHERE 105 HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL OCCUR. TODAY WHAT FEW STORMS FORM SHOULD BE MORE OF
THE SHOWER VARIETY AND WILL BE FIGHTING AGAINST BROAD SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH WILL BE
GETTING STRONGER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST IS IN ITS DEATH THROES AND THE RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND GULF IN THE COMING DAYS
WHICH WILL BRING IN MORE DRY AIR ALOFT AND SHOULD KEEP THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FORECAST HOT AND MOSTLY FREE OF RAIN. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY FORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD VERY SMALL.

BACK TO THE HEAT ISSUE AM EXPECTING THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE HOUSTON AND THE SURROUNDING
COUNTIES TOMORROW GIVEN THE LIMITED MIXING OF THE DEWPOINTS TODAY
AND TUESDAY. AT THIS RATE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COAST MAY NOT
COME DOWN UNTIL SATURDAY AT THE SOONEST IF MY CURRENT FORECAST FOR
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

TODAY IS ALSO THE 31ST ANNIVERSARY OF HURRICANE ALICIA.

45

MARINE...
A NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE
EVENING TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS THEN RELAX BELOW CAUTION LEVELS IN
THE MORNING. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTS
TOWARDS LOUISIANA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO RELAX ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS TO
REMAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  77  98  77  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  78  96  77  97 /  20   0  20  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            94  83  92  81  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23



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