Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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448
FXUS64 KHGX 121559
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
959 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Observations at 15Z showed temperatures in the mid 50s for most
of the area with some upper 50s along the coast and low 50s
towards the Brazos valley. Dewpoint temperatures at the surface
were already lower than forecast which will contribute to some low
humidity this afternoon. High temperatures with cold advection
over the area should still reach the low to mid 60s. This will
allow for humidity levels around 25 to 30 percent across the area
but would not be surprised if humidity levels ended up being
lower. We will be updating the short term forecast to keep up with
ongoing humidity trends. With winds near 15 mph across the area,
any fires could grow quickly. With recent rain across the area
fuel moisture has increased but still some pockets of 300-500 KBDI
indicating some dry spots. We will keep with the elevated fire
weather conditions messages as winds should stay below red flag
warning criteria today. We are still concerned about lower
humidity than forecast. The main changes were to update the
forecast for ongoing temperature and dewpoint trends to stay ahead
of any fire weather concerns.

Overpeck


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 250 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/...

It the wake of this morning`s cold front, today`s high
temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s, some 5 to 10 degrees
cooler that yesterday`s highs that were in the low to mid 70s.
North winds will generally be in a 10 to 15 mph range (maybe
occasionally gusty, especially near the coast and offshore) with
decreasing speeds as the afternoon progresses when high pressure
begins to ridge into the area from the west. Weather stays on the
quiet side (dry with temperatures close to normal) ahead of the
area`s next cold frontal passage on Thursday/ Thursday evening.
While we continue to see some run-to-run model inconsistency in
regards to the weekend forecast, have gone ahead and raised
Sunday`s rain chances just a little in response to better/wetter
model agreement with the most recent run. When we start to see
better consistency in these wetter model solutions, do not be
surprised if we eventually carry higher rain chances in the
extended forecast. 42

.AVIATION...
Breezy north winds during the mid morning thru afternoon hours will
be about the only aviation concern today. Otherwise, VFR for the
next 30+ hours. 47


.MARINE...
Northerly winds should pick up in the wake of a passing cold front
early this morning. We may see speeds briefly hit SCA criteria for a
short duration this morning, but think 15-20kt winds should many
prevail into the afternoon so will keep the caution flags going for
now and keep an eye on things. Winds/seas diminish later tonight and
Wed followed by the next front later Thurs. Looks like a SCA may be
required Thurs night in its wake.  Onshore winds resume by early Sat
and rapidly increase as pressures fall across the Plains. Seas build
and warmer/deeper moisture overrides the cool nearshore shelf waters.
Sea fog may become an issue until the next stronger front clears the
coast later on Sunday. 47


.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today with RH values
bottoming out between 25-30% along with increasing wind speeds.
Gusts between 15-20 mph will be possible from mid morning to
mid/late afternoon. 47


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  64  35  65  42  65 /   0   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)          65  37  63  44  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)        66  46  61  53  66 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE...Overpeck



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