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000
FXUS64 KHGX 162346
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
646 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL HAVE VFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN
SPOTTY AREAS BUT GENERALLY THINK THERE WILL BE SCT STRATOCU IN THE
MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW BUT UNCERTAIN ABOUT
ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW ISO SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS SUNDAY.
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THEIR WAKE.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM AND MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO OUR
NORTHERN AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME FROM A SHORTWAVE AND A VERY
WEAK BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY STALL IN NORTHERN
TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD GENERATE RAINFALL OFF TO OUR NORTH. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THE RAIN WILL MAKE IT. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE IN OUR AREA WITH A CAP STILL IN PLACE AROUND 700MB. NAM
SOUNDINGS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOW SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
WITH NO CAP. THE ECMWF AND GFS APPEAR TO MATCH UP PRETTY WELL
REGARDING TIMING. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH
THE VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE STATE BUT HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
LEVEL RH. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED TO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

BY EARLY THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL START TO
MOVE OVERHEAD. THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING MORE WESTWARD THAN
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF. IF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF PAN OUT
TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. THE GFS
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES MORE AROUND THE 95 DEGREE MARK. EITHER WAY
LOOKS HOT FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WORK WEEK. 23

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. RAISED THE WINDS JUST A BIT HERE AND THERE...AND
THIS MIGHT HAVE US OCCASIONALLY FLIRTING WITH CAUTION SPEEDS.
IN GENERALLY...STILL EXPECTING SMOOTH TO SLIGHTLY CHOPPY BAY
WATERS...1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN A
5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  94  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  80  91  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...39