Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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807
FXUS64 KHGX 232112
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
412 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A quiet day across the region with only light showers forming over
the southwestern counties, currently light precipitation moving
through Brazoria and Fort Bend Counties. Mostly cloudy out west in
line with the higher moisture axis, partly cloudy cumulus field
to east as temperatures achieve the lower 80s. A tight onshore
gradient exist between the southeastern U.S. high and lowering
pressures in the lee of the Rockies. Texas will remain under the
southern belly of the mid to upper level ridge centered over the
Midwestern states through mid week. Overall moisture will remain
high with greater than 1.5 inch pw air advecting in on mid-level
southwesterlies. Subsidence will likely win out through Wednesday
but, with convective temperatures in the middle 80s, there will
be slight rain chances still in play Tuesday afternoon. This week`s
highest heights/thicknesses are progged to occur on Wednesday,
lowest weekly rain chances as maximum temperatures flirt with the
lower 90s.

The current developing trough over the West Coast will nestle down
into the Great Basin as a broad open wave trough through Wednesday.
This trough`s northeastward ejection into the central Plains on
Thursday will place East Texas in the warm sector and significantly
increase north and central CWA convective probabilities on Thursday
and Friday. As of now, the bulk of the energy/upper diffulence
will remain up in northeastern Texas/Arlatex. The higher rain
chances are based upon passing shortwave disturbances traveling up
within the southwestern flow through Saturday. Moisture values
will be high, pooling to higher than 1.75 inches by Friday, within
a weakly 75H-85H capped environment. The weather pattern over the
weekend may be a touch unsettled with a southern based ridge
slowly building northward. Seasonably high resident moisture and
a continued marginally unstable background maintain as least
modest interior POPs. This to account for afternoon -TSRA redevelopment
in the vicinity of any lingering late week old convective outflow
(or mesoscale land/sea breeze) boundaries. 31

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      72  88  74  89  74 /  10  20  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              73  87  76  89  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            76  83  78  83  77 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31



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