Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 051023
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND EVEN UPPER
20S IN A FEW AREAS LIKE CONROE AND CLEVELAND. SFC ANALYSIS HAS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE S ROCKIES ABOUT
TO MOVE INTO TEXAS TODAY/TONIGHT.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE TX FOR
THE NEXT 8 TO 10 DAYS. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PHASING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE N PLAINS WITH
THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE S ROCKIES INTO TEXAS FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM THEN RAPIDLY MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
TOWARDS THE SE U.S. ON SUNDAY. IN ITS WAKE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REALLY AMPLIFIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

AT THE SURFACE AND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS TODAY AND TURNS SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FIRST PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850-700MB BUT THIS MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF MOISTURE RETURN IS
MORE THAN EXPECTED AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FORM...POSSIBLE THAT AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FORM SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT LOOK GOOD
TO COVER MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MESOSCALE WRF NMM/ARW
RUNS AS WELL AS THE TX TECH WRF SHOW POSSIBLE LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY FAST MOVING
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN A 1040
MB HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA. MONDAY COULD BE QUITE
CHILLY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS 850MB TEMPS DROP FROM 6C
TO 8C TO 0C TO -4C ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S LOOK
REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR TRENDS
IN FORECAST DATA FOR COLDER AIR. TEMPS MAY REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY
BUT STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE
AMPLIFIED BUT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO EDGE OVER THE S
ROCKIES AND NOR MEXICO. TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. TEMPS REALLY BEGIN TO
REBOUND WED/THUR/FRI AS 850MB FLOW BECOMES NW TO W AND THERE IS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS AT 850MB INCREASE
TO 10C ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN 12C ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH VERY DRY AIR. MOISTURE LEVELS MAY NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS THERE COULD BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THESE DAYS
FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH SO
RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY NOT BE NEEDED BUT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE. COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS DUE TO LACK OF
RAINFALL...RAPID FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

39

&&

.MARINE...
FAST MOVING PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH CHANGEABLE WINDS AND SEAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD APPROACH ADIVSORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  38  58  36  64 /   0  30  20   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  39  60  37  65 /   0  20  30   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            57  48  62  46  62 /   0  10  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...46


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