Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 221115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
515 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

IR Satellite imagery shows clear skies. Upper air analysis has
ridging aloft. Surface high pressure will move across the area.
Expect VFR with light winds today. Southerly winds increase
tomorrow. One line TAFs for everyone.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

A building upper level ridge will lead to well above normal
daytime temperatures over the next few days. A couple of upper
level systems moving across the country will then bring cooler
temperatures to SE Texas over the upcoming weekend, but warmer
conditions with rain chances early next week.

Temperatures today and Thursday should reach into the lower 80s
with some locations possibly reaching into the mid 80s. There is
an outside chance that upper 80s could be experienced on Thursday
afternoon as southwesterly winds result in some rather warm
temperatures for this time of year in the mid-levels. For
example, the 06Z NAMBufr forecast sounding for Thursday at
College Station was showing about 18 degrees Celsius at 850 mb. A
rather large capping inversion will keep rain chances nil over
the entire forecast area as a cold front moves through on Friday.
The major impact of the front will be much cooler conditions over
the weekend as highs on Saturday will likely only reach into the
60s to around 70.

Onshore flow will return by the first of next week as an upper
level storm system moves into the Rockies. The warm air advection
and moist advection will result in chances for rain returning by
Monday. Temperatures will also warm back into the 70s to around 80
both Monday and Tuesday.


Light northwest winds today should become southerly tonight into
Thursday. Southerly winds are forecast to increase Thursday night
into Friday. Winds will likely reach 15 to 20 knots with seas around
4 to 5 feet by Friday morning. Southerly winds turn more southwest
during the day Friday as a frontal boundary approaches the Upper
Texas Coast.

A cold front is still expected to push off the coast Friday night
into Saturday allowing for increased northeast winds mainly in the
offshore areas. Winds just off the coast do not look as strong as
previously forecast but wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots can still be
expected. Caution flags may be needed along the coast with an
advisory for offshore areas.

High pressure quickly moves east allowing for southeast winds to
develop on Sunday. Cautions may still be needed on Sunday with
strong winds from the southeast and seas close to 5 to 7 feet.



College Station (CLL)      82  55  84  59  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)              81  57  82  63  82 /   0   0   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            72  62  74  65  76 /   0   0   0  10  10




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