Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 051456
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
956 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN BUMPING TEMPS AND DEW POINTS UPWARDS A NOTCH TO BETTER
MATCH OBS...NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HEAT INDICES THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL
DIURNAL MIXING AND INCREASING WINDS BEGIN TO DIP TDS OUT OF THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. MANY SITES WILL APPROACH 105F FOR HEAT
INDICES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE COAST AND ALONG NORTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL SETUP MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY.

48

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 3 AM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FLORIDA WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COAST IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND THEN COME TO AN END. AT 850 MB...DEEPER MOISTURE WAS
LOCATED NEAR BRO AND ANOTHER SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SE TX. A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH EXTENDED
ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA INTO EAST TEXAS AND 700 MB TEMPS HAD COOLED
SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS TO A WEAK 500 MB LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. AT 250
MB...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A SHARP
TROUGH AXIS FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN BROADLY DIVERGENT BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
DIVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN
1.7-1.8 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE BETWEEN 88-91 DEGREES. THE MODEST
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE 700-500 TROUGH AXIS SHOULD YIELD A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COVERAGE TODAY AND THE 20 POPS IN THE GRIDS SEEM MORE THAN
GENEROUS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 98-103 DEGREES
INLAND AND BETWEEN 102 AND 109 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES
TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY. STAY HYDRATED WITH WATER IF HEADING TO
AREA BEACHES TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS A BIT WEAKER ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH
RESIDES OVER FLORIDA AND A SECOND HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
LEAVES SE TX IN A BIT OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. MOISTURE ON MONDAY IS
RATHER SPARSE WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES AND
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S. WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF
THE FORECAST ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK S/WV TROUGH WILL SCOOT
EAST BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES AND PW VALUES INCREASE TO
1.8 INCHES BY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN LOWISH POPS FOR TUESDAY BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE NOT LOOKING TOO IMPRESSIVE. THE UPPER HIGH OVER
FLORIDA AND THE OTHER HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WILL YIELD A BROAD
BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO
ACROSS TEXAS TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS
REMAIN MODEST STAYING AROUND 5920 DM. IT`LL START GETTING WARMER
BUT NOT LOOKING AT HOT TEMPERATURES JUST YET. THE RIDGE SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF SE TX WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.  43

MARINE...

SSE WINDS 10-15KTS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FEW KNOT INCREASE
TONIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE LLJ INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST
AS A S/W MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA AND THIS SHOULD TAP INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ELEVATE THE WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGING TAKING
HOLD ON TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND SQUASHING SHOWER CHANCES AND WINDS
LOWER INTO THE 8-14KT RANGE.
45

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG AT CXO AND ARM WITH ST 600-1200FT NEAR CLL/11R AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE FOG AND ST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE. SHOWERS IN THE GULF ARE
REALLY STRUGGLING AGAINST THE SUBSIDENCE SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
GLS BUT FOR NOW DON`T PLAN TO INCLUDE LBX. TODAY ACROSS THE MAIN
TERMINALS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD LOW AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THEY WOULD IMPACT
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR
EAST AS CXO AFTER 06Z AND CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT CLL WILL GO
MVFR AFTER 06Z.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  77  93  76  92 /  20  10   0   0  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  78  94  78  92 /  20  10  10   0  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  90  80  89 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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