Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 220539
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1139 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
The cold front has now pushed through GLS and sits just off the
coast. Scattered showers will continue through the taf period with
some thunderstorms staying in the mix for the next few hours. LIFR
ceilings will be the predominant restriction at all sites
throughout the taf period. The front will lift back northward
throughout the day tomorrow, with ceilings temporarily improving
to IFR after it passes through. Improving ceilings were also
included for the far northern sites (CLL and UTS) although
confidence is lower for those locations as the front probably
won`t make it that far inland. Any relief will be short-lived as
largely LIFR conditions are forecast to return tomorrow night. Sea
fog currently just off the coast could move into GLS later
tonight depending on the location of the front, but the potential
for sea fog is higher tomorrow night as the front should be well
inland by then. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front was very close to the coast and should continue to
trek into the coastal waters. Temps at 8 PM were 71 degrees at
KGLS with a south winds and 58 degrees at KLBX with a north wind.
850 mb moisture is still rather plentiful with 850 dew points
between 13-15 C. A weak 850 low was over east Texas with a weak
trough axis extending to the S-SW of the 850 low. 300 mb winds
show a broadly diffluent flow over East Texas. 00z CRP sounding
still showed a PW value of 1.80 inches and LCH was around 1.65
inches. Showers not quite as numerous as earlier in the evening
but lift from the 850 trough and the copious moisture should keep
showers/iso thunderstorms going through the night. Will lower PoPs
slightly and tweak hourly temp grids but rest of the forecast
looks in good shape.

The rain earlier today was enough to produce a rise on Long King
Creek and a river flood warning was issued for that watershed. 43


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      42  55  53  76  64 /  60  70  70  50  40
Houston (IAH)              54  71  62  80  67 /  70  50  50  30  30
Galveston (GLS)            62  69  64  74  65 /  60  50  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Thursday for
     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...11



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