Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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698
FXUS64 KHGX 192348
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE ALL BUGGED OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING SO SHOULD
HAVE VFR CIGS HEADED INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH STIFF SE WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS A FRONT
PUSHES INTO N TX. FRONT SHOULD STALL NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. BACK TO TONIGHT...EXPECT CIGS TO GO MVFR GIVEN HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. LIKE LAST NIGHT IF WINDS DECOUPLE
ENOUGH...PROBABLY HAVE A FEW HRS OF IFR CIGS SO MENTION THAT IN
TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KHOU AND KGLS. OTHER SITES
ARE RURAL ENOUGH OR HAD THESE CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT TO KEEP A
MENTION. MVFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY LATE MORNING TO VFR CIGS.
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE A QUESTION MARK AS THERE MAY STILL BE A
MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES. UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN STILL MAY BE SUBSIDENT WITH WEAK RIDGING BUT ALSO
SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT
OF TAFS AND EVALUATE FOR 06Z UPDATE.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE LOCATED
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PER 12Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH 10 POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BECAUSE
GROUNDS ARE STILL WET AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT RELAXES... ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG
APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PROGS DO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GULF TONIGHT... AND THIS MAY HELP LIMIT FOG COVERAGE
TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING NOSES INTO THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RISE ACCORDINGLY WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS /BOTH GFS AND ECMWF 700
MB TEMPERATURE PROGS AROUND 10 DEG C/ AND THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE
SOME CAPPING TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS... BUT TOMORROW
CARRIES THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING INTO THE MID 80S.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE
RED RIVER... AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONALLY... GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST TEXAS
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT MAY SKIRT THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS... COUPLED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY... WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW
70S.

FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND... AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COUPLED WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 250 MB JET OVER THE
REGION... WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL /AS WELL AS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONCERNS/
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. GIVEN THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT... IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT AREAS AS FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL NO DOUBT SHIFT... BUT
INTERESTED PARTIES ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER SE TX. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS. AN SCA MAY BE
REQUIRED BY SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHEN. SEAS MAY BUILD TO
6 TO 7 FEET DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH. TIDES WILL ALSO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEACHGOERS SHOULD
USE CAUTION OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO INCREASE. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...REACHING THEIR ZENITH ON SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  85  71  83  69 /  10  20  20  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  87  74  86  71 /  10  20  10  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  84  77  83  76 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



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