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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271126
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
626 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP NEAR GALVESTON BAY BY MIDAFTERNOON BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH KS INTO TX/OK
PANHANDLES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT BRINGING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE PLAINS. BASED OFF 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER
DATA...PRECIP WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED ALONG THE COAST WITH BEST
MOISTURE ALONG THE N GULF. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE S PLAINS INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGE DID NOT STOP A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS FROM FORMING YESTERDAY SO IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT A FEW ISO STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE AND MENTION ISO STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 95-97F RANGE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 103-105. OVERALL
JUST YOUR TYPICAL HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF JULY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MINN WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK OVER THE C PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE THIS
UPPER LOW AND JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT NOT REALLY WEAKEN MUCH OVER TX. THE RIDGE FINALLY
WEAKENS MON INTO TUE. THIS ALSO CORRESPONDS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE MOVES INTO TX MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO SE TX TUE AND STALLS MAINLY FROM A NW TO SE DIRECTION.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT POSITION THE FRONT STALLS.
REGARDLESS THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUE THROUGH THUR. RIGHT NOW 20/30 POPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH
BASICALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PRECIP WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SO EXPECT
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BROADEN INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THUR. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE S PLAINS WED INTO THUR. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BUT PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
BE MORE OVER N TX BUT STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR. RAIN CHANCES OF
30 PERCENT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THUR BUT COULD SEE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND SO EXPECT THERE TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO
HOLD ONTO AT LEAST 20 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SO DO NOT SEE ANY SUBSIDENCE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  77  96  76  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  77  95  77  93 /  10  10  10  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38