Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 021510
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS WANED INLAND BUT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN PERSIST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AT 850 MB...DEW PTS ARE BETWEEN 14-15
BETWEEN SHV AND BRO. AT 700 MB...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NE TX
TO JUST EAST OF BRO WITH THE BEST MSTR TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
AT 250 MB...A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.80 AND
1.90 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE LCH
SOUNDINGS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB. THERE SHOULD
BE A GAP IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT IF TEMPS CAN WARM TO
AROUND 90...THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INLAND THIS
AFTN. VIS SATELLITE SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING SO AM EXPECTING WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND 90 DEGREES LOOKS
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HAVE TRENDED INLAND TEMPS WARMER AND
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS
FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THRU 18Z AND THEN LOWER THEM SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. ALSO MODIFIED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER EARLY START FOR THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING...LIKELY
DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. DID
GO AHEAD AND ADD A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY OF
UNSETTLED WX IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
MOVING UP THE TX COAST THESE LAST FEW DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS FEATURE IN/AROUND THE
MIDDLE TX COAST THROUGH TOMORROW...THEN SLOWLY FILLING IN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO KEEP
CHC POPS IN UNTIL FRI OR SO AS WE THEN EVOLVE TO A MORE DIURNALLY
SEABREEZE DRIVEN PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LONG-RANGE MODELS MAINTAINING A
BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PATTERN JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH
ALSO LOOKS TO BE WHY THEY ARE KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. OF NOTE IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED FCST - A COLD FRONT
MAYBE PERHAPS NEXT FRI? WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS TOTALLY IN FAVOR
WITH THIS THE GFS IS NOT EXACTLY DISCOURAGING EITHER. ALSO THE
TIMING IS ABOUT 4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR COLD
FRONTS IN SE TX (WHICH IS SEP 15TH). SO I GUESS WE SHALL SEE.

41

MARINE...
AGAIN COASTAL WATERS GETTING ACTIVE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INLAND AS WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT WAS ALONG THE COAST WITH NOTABLE SPEED CONVERGENCE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS INLAND. COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A LULL
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
NEAR 10 (OR LESS) THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
EXPECTING SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A LIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER.
45

AVIATION...
STORMS SPREADING INLAND PAST GLS/LBX/BYY AND SHOULD BE NEARING
SGR/HOU SOON. WILL LIKELY SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THIS
MORNING FOR HOU SOUTHWARD SHIFTING TO IAH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
INDICATIONS OF A DECENT CLUSTER TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
APPROACHES TO IAH/HOU BETWEEN 14-19Z. A FEW OF THE HIGH RES MODELS
ALSO HAVE AN AREA OF STRONG STORMS EAST OF IAH THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT OF THIS SOLUTION AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN DECREASING
AND CAN FIND ANY CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THE S/W IN THE MODELS AS OF
YET. VFR THROUGH TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH STORMS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  74  94  75  94 /  20  20  30  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  92  75  92 /  30  30  40  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  77  88  79  88 /  60  40  50  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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