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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 091850 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1250 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013 .UPDATE... DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHIELD HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND UPDATED WX GRIDS. NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013/ DISCUSSION... SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION... FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TREND OF VERY LOW CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND RADAR SHOWS EXPANDING COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX THIS EVENING AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE. SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES ON TUESDAY BUT PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME CIRRUS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND ADDED SOME GUSTS FOR MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013/ UPDATE... SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE. DISCUSSION... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS TWO BOUNDARIES CLOSE TO OUR AREA. A REMNANT BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARDS DURING THE DAY TODAY AND REACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TODAY GIVEN THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS DUE TO THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE COVERED NICELY. NO UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. 23 MARINE... MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTN AND BORDERLINE SCEC CONDS ARE EXPECTED. AN SCA WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS ON WEDS DURING THE DAY THEN THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AGAIN BY WEDS NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT. ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS (NEAR ADVISORY/CAUTION CRITERIA) PROGGED FOR WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS AFTN OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS BY FRI. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013/ DISCUSSION... ANOTHER CLOUDY COOL DAY ON TAP WITH INCREASING AREAS OF DRIZZLE/-RA DEVELOPING THRU THE DAY. A REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THRU THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHUNT PRECIP SEWD WITH THE COOLER/DRIER AIR. THOUGH GUIDANCE IS ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS...STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS TO VERIFY SINCE TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MANY LOCATIONS COULD ACTUALLY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON TUES FOR A CHANGE...BUT WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT THERE`S NO GUARANTEES. A 2ND REINFORCING FRONT MOVES IN LATE WED AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES SEWD FROM THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE EAST COAST. UPPER TROF NOW SITUATED OFF THE N CA COAST WILL BE THE NEXT WX MAKER HERE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS IT MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THU-SAT AND INTERACTS WITH COASTAL TROF OR WARM FRONT NEAR TX COAST. EXPECT INCREASING POPS EARLY FRI...ENDING W/ FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT MORNING OR AFTN. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 28 45 29 50 36 / 30 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 35 49 33 51 39 / 40 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 40 50 42 55 45 / 60 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY... WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...23
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