561
FXUS64 KHGX 100525
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms can be
  expected each day through the upcoming weekend.

- Isolated strong thunderstorms will result in gusty winds and
  periods of heavy rainfall and could lead to ponding of water
  along roadways, as well as minor flooding over poor drainage and
  low lying areas.

- Daily high temperatures will continue to be at or just below
  seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Regardless, it is
  summer in Southeast TX and technically still hot. Make sure to
  take breaks if spending time or working outside and stay
  hydrated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast for this
issuance.

We will likely continue to see daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the next several days. This is mainly in
response to Southeast TX being wedged between a high pressure
systems situated over SW CONUS and another high pressure system
situated over the eastern Gulf, allowing for weaknesses to pass
overhead from time to time. The weather pattern will generally be
a "rinse and repeat" with passing showers possible over the waters
and coastal locations during the early to mid morning hours,
followed by stronger and more extensive development of showers and
thunderstorms further inland during the mid morning to late
afternoon hours as diurnal heating and instability increases. The
PWs on Thursday are expected to stay in the 1.8" to 2.0" range,
which could result in pocket of moderate to heavy rain with
rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour in some locations. This could lead
to ponding of water along roadways, as well as minor flooding in
areas of poor drainage. The heavy downpours may occur during the
afternoon commute, thus, make sure to check the radar and traffic
conditions before you depart to your destination. Remember, never
cross flooded roads.

Moisture is expected decrease on Friday, as drier air moves into
the region and could lead to lower PoPs. Regardless, we can at
least expect isolated showers and thunderstorms during the daytime
hours. For the upcoming weekend, our rain chances look to
increase again as an upper level trough moves across the Southern
Plains and PWs rise back to 1.8" to 2.0" which may result in
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. A similar
weather pattern can be expected on Sunday. Please be mindful of
how the weekend weather can affect your travel. Also, if you or
your family are planning to spend time or work outdoors or visit
our local beaches, keep in mind that lightning can strike many
miles away from the storm. When thunder roars, head indoors.

One good thing about the rain and cloud coverage, is that it`s
keeping our high temperatures at or just below seasonal norms.
Thus, we are expected our highs to remain mostly in the lower 90s
through the weekend. From Monday into Tuesday, however, we may see
a gradual decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity as another
pocket of drier air passes through. This could lead to higher
temperatures, which some spots possibly seeing highs in the upper
90s. As for our low temperatures, expect them to be between the
mid to upper 70s inland and the upper 70s to lower 80s for the
coastal locations.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Localized areas of MVFR cigs/vis are possible overnight into the
morning hours. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions are expected.
Winds are expected to pick up out of the SW later in the morning,
becoming more southerly in the afternoon. Winds may become more
SE by late afternoon. Some shra/tsra activity is possible during
the afternoon, mostly in association with the sea breeze boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and 2 to 4 foot seas
will prevail for the next several days. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated each day. We can expect to see
showers and thunderstorms developing along the Gulf waters and
coastal locations during the morning to early afternoon hours,
followed by less activity during the mid afternoon to evening
hours as storms move further inland. However, a strong storm or
two cannot be discarded during that timeframe, in particular over
the bays. Stronger storms could lead to strong gusty winds and
outflow boundaries and could elevate seas at times.

Along the Gulf facing beaches, persistent onshore flow will
result in a moderate risk of rip currents. High risk of rip
currents could occur at times. Please follow the beach flag
conditions, and always swim near a lifeguard.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  75  92  75 /  20  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  93  77  92  78 /  40  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)  91  83  91  84 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Cotto