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000
FXUS64 KHGX 061652
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS APPEARING IN OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES
THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THINKING IS THAT MVFR CLOUD DECK UP NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH AND ERODE DURING THE DAY (AS SUPPORTED BY HRRR). A COUPLE
TAF SITES MIGHT GO BROKEN BUT THINK SKIES SHOULD STAY SCATTERED
FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALL THANKS TO THE AREA BEING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
REVEALED 850MB WINDS AROUND 20KTS WITH 700MB WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE. MIXING HAS ALREADY STARTED THIS MORNING ALLOWING SOME
OF THESE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. MODELS ARE ALSO ADVERTISING
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MAKING A COME BACK TOMORROW MORNING BUT KEEPING
TAF SITES VFR. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WESTERN EDGES OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS COME BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND START TO WARM THINGS
UP AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL WAIT FOR ALL OF THE 12Z MODEL
DATA TO ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENT TO OUR WEEKEND`S RAIN
CHANCES.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
IR/3.9-11 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE COAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS THE NEXT
6-12 HRS. CONCERNED THAT CLOUD COVER OVER N TX MAY PUSH INTO THE
AREA BUT MODELS ARE MIXING ENOUGH THAT DOUBT THERE WILL BE OVC/BKN
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LIKED HRRR RUNS WHERE THESE CLOUDS DO ERODE
BUT STILL DEVELOP SCT/BKN CLOUDS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
MAY BE A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS EMERGED BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL SITE MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS
DIFFERED BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO
TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR TODAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SE TX. EXPECT THE
CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY GET UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ONE
MORE NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE MORE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 WAS DRIER FOR
SATURDAY EVEN WITH THE MODEL PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE ECMWF WAS VERY WET WHILE THE GFS WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CONFIRMED BY FORECASTS OF THE LIFTED
INDEX FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF
DIFFERED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. DECIDED LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCE FORECAST AND BLEND IN WITH THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PUSH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. WILL HAVE SCEC AS
DO NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20KTS TO WARRANT SCA. SCEC WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER E TX TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST SOMETIME SUNDAY BUT ALL MODELS SHOW CONFLICTING
TIMING. GFS/ECMWF EVEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING IF A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY (ECMWF) OR TUESDAY (GFS). THIS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT WINDS/SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ECMWF HAS STRONG COLD FRONT ON WED WHERE
GFS HAS FRONT COMING THROUGH NEXT THUR.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  38  67  50  69 /   0   0  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  39  66  51  71 /   0   0  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            59  47  61  55  67 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23