Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

286
FXUS64 KHGX 072033
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
233 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED EAST OF ABILENE ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
MOVE SE AND PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS SE TX EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SE TX BEHIND THE FRONT.
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SURFACE AND SFC DEW PTS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW 25
PERCENT. NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE (NW WINDS AT 925 MB OF 30-40
KTS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE) IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF A MADISONVILLE TO HOUSTON TO FREEPORT LINE. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG NW WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF SE TX IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS. MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLD AND DRY ON TUESDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MODERATE. 500 MB HEIGHTS
BUILD AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM AND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT TREND WARMER. SE TX IS KIND OF CAUGHT
BETWEEN THE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT OVER SE TX REMAINING
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT GETS DAMPENED
BRIEFLY BY A WEAK S/WV NEXT WEEKEND IN WHICH THE FLOW BECOMES
SEMI-ZONAL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REDEVELOPING. OVERALL...THE
WX PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS LOOKS DRY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES.  43

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT...VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BREEZES JUST AHEAD OF AN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES BY...EXPECT FRONT TO BE OFF THE COASTLINE AND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 5 AND 8 AM. ALL BAY/GULF WATER
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A WEAKENING OF EVENING
WINDS TO CAUTION OVER THE BAYS. CAUTION/ADVISORY LEVEL OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING
IN OVER THE WATERS FROM SOUTH TEXAS WILL VEER OFFSHORE WINDS MORE
WEST AND THEN ONSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOWERING NORTHERN
TEXAS PRESSURES WILL TIGHTEN THE ONSHORE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY
CREATE CAUTION LEVEL S-SW WINDS LATE THURSDAY. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CELL OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ENSURE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLIES
LENDING TO GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. 31


.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND MONDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL COMMENCE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT AVERAGE AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE LOWER
20 PERCENTILE OVER THE ENTIRE (NON-COASTAL) FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE WELL
CURED FUELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THESE
INGREDIENTS OF AVAILABLE FUEL/STRONG WINDS/LOW RH COME TOGETHER IN NEARLY TWO
YEARS. THE LAST TIME WE HAD A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER ANY PART OF THE CWA WAS
MAY 4TH 2014. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FIRST RED FLAG WARNING IN OVER TWO
YEARS WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CORRIDOR COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WITHIN AN AIR MASS THAT MAY
FALL TO UNDER 20 PERCENT RH. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      35  57  34  61  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  59  36  60  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            46  58  42  58  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MONDAY EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.