Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE NW ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
KCLL HAS CIGS NEAR 500 FEET AND NNE WIND. TAF SITES FURTHER SOUTH
ARE ENDURING SOME PATCHY FOG. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CWA
TODAY WITH BRIEF LIFR/MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. THE
FRONT IS NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN. AS THE FRONT
TRUDGES SOUTH...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WEAK SEA BREEZE AND FEEL THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP WILL BE KHOU/KSGR SOUTHWARD
DURING THE LATE AFTN. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT
AND FEEL SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR KLBX AND POSSIBLY
KGLS. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY SAGGING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...HAVING JUST BREACHED THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
/BURLESON...BRAZOS...MADISON..HOUSTON/ AS OF 08Z. GULF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE
MILE. DEPENDING ON TRENDS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT TRUDGES TOWARDS
THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WEATHER CONCERNS WILL SHIFT FROM
FOG THIS MORNING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KFWD...KLCH...KCRP...AND KSHV SHOWED A DEFINED
CAP IN PLACE BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. BOTH GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME EROSION OF THE CAP THIS
AFTERNOON... AND WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG THINK AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE ANY KIND OF ENHANCEMENT A
POTENTIAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT WILL HAVE FOR
COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE IF A SEABREEZE DOES DEVELOP AND HAVE NUDGED POPS UP
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

BY THURSDAY EVENING...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN IMPULSE MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN THIS FLOW WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE
CLIPPED BY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SECONDARY
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GIVEN QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE RETURN HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED 20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING MORE FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN...ALTHOUGH HOW FAR SOUTH
THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA WILL AFFECT HOW COOL OUR
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY GET. THE LATEST 00Z SUITE CONTINUES TO
BUILD THE SURFACE HIGH FARTHER WEST AND OUR TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
TRENDED DOWN ACCORDINGLY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMBINED WITH THE COOL SURFACE HIGH IS MAKING
THE WEEKEND LOOK DOWNRIGHT PLEASANT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
UNDER 70 ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY WITH LOW 40/S CREEPING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS
A TROUGH BEGINS SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM APPROACHING TEXAS BY MID-WEEK...DRAWING
IN BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE AS IT DOES. BOTH MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TO MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN /EFFECTIVELY OMITTING THE
CUTOFF LOW THEY WERE ADVERTISING YESTERDAY OVER THE OZARKS/ BUT
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WITH THE
GFS PUSHING IT THOUGH THE AREA AND THE ECMWF HANGING IT UP OVER
NORTH TEXAS. DEPENDING UPON THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...WE MAY MISS
OUT ON THE BETTER RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT. GIVEN THESE
DISCREPANCIES...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST.

14/MH

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MEANDER NEAR THE COAST BEFORE GETTING A
SECONDARY PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT ON FRIDAY IS LOOKING
A BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS PROBABLY REACHING CAUTION CRITERIA ON FRI
NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH WILL PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RETURN. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED SUN-TUE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUN AFTN AND BEYOND. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  58  79  57  73 /  30  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  60  79  58  75 /  30  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  76  66  75 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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