Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 152049
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PLEASANTLY COOL DAY UNDER FULL SUN WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STOUT NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS YESTERDAY`S UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS WELL EAST...ITS
AXIS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL LAY DOWN TONIGHT
AND...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...MANY WILL EXPERIENCE A CHILL SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING`S COLD BITE. ALL FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES WILL FALL
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
GALVESTON HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT TYING (OR BREAKING) ITS MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORD AS THEIR APRIL 16TH RECORD OF 51 F 86 YEARS
AGO IS 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S RECORD. WINDS VEER
AROUND TO ONSHORE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO THE DAY WILL WARM A BIT
FASTER THAN TODAY...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURNING EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL POSSIBLY INTRODUCE LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THAT AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS A WEAK LOBE OF PVA THAT SKIRTS THROUGH
AHEAD OF THIS SHALLOW 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. PROFILES WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY ABOVE 85H...A 7-85H CAP IN PLACE SO THERE MAY BE
WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT FORM UNDER THIS WARM NOSE AS LATE
AM INTO EARLY PM TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S. THE GFS/ECWMF
SOLUTIONS STAY TOGETHER ON THE TIMING OF FRIDAY`S UPPER TRANSITORY
RIDGING...BUT BEGIN TO GO OUT OF PHASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SURPRISES WITH MODEL BEHAVIOR AS THE FASTER GFS PUSHES A NORTHEAST-
LIFTING TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS OVER EASTER...WHILE THE SLOWER-
PACED EURO HANGS ITS TROUGH AXIS WEST. THE FASTER GFS INTRODUCES
RAIN SATURDAY WHILE BOTH MODELS DEPICT WIDESPREAD (LOW) QPF OVER
EASTER. IN AN ATTEMPT TO TIME THESE OUT-OUT-PHASE SOLUTIONS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT ON SATURDAY AND WENT WITH LOWER END CHANCE
POPS EASTER DAY. IT APPEARS THAT MANY WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT MODELS ARE KEEPING THE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
LOW (GENERALLY UNDER AN AVERAGE HALF AN INCH). THE CAP DOES ERODE
EARLY IN THE WEEK SO THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTER ONWARD INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOWER LEVEL
BOUNDARY MONDAY (PER GFS) CONTINUES THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN CWA. EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS WEEKEND ONWARD...MILD
OVERNIGHTS IN THE 60S...UNDER MORE OVERCAST/HUMIDITY AS ONSHORE
WINDS PUMP UP GREATER THAN 1.50 INCH PWAT MOISTURE INTO SE TEXAS.
31

&&

.MARINE...
COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER WARMER SHELF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
NE WINDS TONIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVER EAST OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DECREASE BEFORE BECOMING EAST TOWARD MORNING AND
INCREASING AGAIN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
ON WEDNESDAY...AND ELEVATED SPEEDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      39  71  53  72  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              40  71  55  74  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  68  60  72  65 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31



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