Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 270858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
358 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

The much anticipated first cold front of fall has pushed into the
Gulf early this morning, with scattered showers ahead of this
feature continuing across the offshore waters. Early morning water
vapor imagery showed the upper low associated with our cold front
churning over Ontario, with another cutoff low located farther
southwest over Baja California. 3 AM CDT observations show dew
points have fallen into the mid to upper 60s north of Highway 59,
but the bulk of the drier air is straggling behind the front a bit
and is located over parts of North Texas and southern Oklahoma
early this morning. This drier air will slowly filter into the
area through the day as surface high pressure pushes farther south
into Texas, providing our first taste of drier fall weather.

Upglide behind the front this morning is resulting in low clouds
and these clouds are expected to lift (but persist) as the post-
frontal layer deepens through the day. These clouds will help keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s today. As a result of the
drier air`s slow progression, deeper moisture will remain pooled
along the coastal counties and an isolated shower or possibly
thunderstorm will be possible as temperatures rise into the low
80s (even with cloud cover today). Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the coastal waters closer to
the frontal boundary.

The cold front will continue to push farther into the Gulf
tonight, shunting rain chances farther away from the region as it
exits. The continued southward push of the drier air north of the
region will result in skies gradually clearing overnight and
through the day on Wednesday, with relatively pleasant overnight
lows falling into the 60s inland and low 70s along the coast. Dry
air and clear skies in place across the region on Wednesday and
Thursday will allow for temperatures to warm back into the mid to
possibly upper 80s. However, a reinforcing cold front looks to
work its way into the region Thursday afternoon providing another
shot of dry air and holding high temperatures in the lower 80s on
Friday. Low temperatures on Friday and Saturday mornings are
forecast to be some of the coolest the region has seen since early

Dry and pleasant fall weather will continue into the upcoming
weekend and beginning of the upcoming week as surface high
pressure and offshore winds keep the region closed off from Gulf
moisture (forecast precipitable water values remaining below 1
inch). Highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to
mid 60s will continue this weekend, with slightly warmer lows
along the coast.

Return flow looks to resume Tuesday as surface high pressure
builds farther into the northern Gulf, possibly allowing for low
diurnally driven rain chances to return to the forecast in the
mid-week time period. This is all dependent on how quickly low
level moisture returns though and only highlighting silent 10 PoPs
for the end of the forecast period. Another cold front may
approach Southeast Texas late next week as a trough swings across
the Great Plains, but medium range guidance still differs
considerably on timing/placement of this potential feature.



A weak cold front has pushed off the coast and winds have
increased slightly. Winds will likely remain light to moderate
this morning before decreasing again tonight. Light offshore winds
are expected Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure settles over
the central plains. Another weak cold front will cross the coast
Thursday night. The gradient behind the second front will be a bit
tighter and slightly stronger offshore winds are expected Thursday
night and Friday. High pressure will move into the southern plains
next weekend with lighter winds expected. Onshore winds will
return late Sunday as the area of high pressure shifts east. 43


College Station (CLL)      80  63  86  62  85 /  10  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              84  66  88  66  88 /  10  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            83  74  84  75  86 /  20  20  10   0   0




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