Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 300247

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
947 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

The last couple of showers are finally dissipating. Expect the
area to be clear by midnight across the north and just some
lingering TSRA/SHRA debris clouds left until toward sunrise.
Expecting SHRA/TSRA to increase over the coastal waters after 3
am as well as the possibility that storms over LA coast could
propagate into the area. Overnight temperatures look on track. Did
expand the northern edge of the rain chances north a bit Thursday
afternoon as seabreeze may be a bit stronger and penetrate inland
during the heating a little further and early than today.
Soundings still showing the trend of increasing warmth aloft from
subsidence Thursday but probably not enough to shut us down.



For the 00Z TAFs, the main aviation concerns center around waning
convection for the southern terminals and patchy fog development

Isolated SHRA (with embedded TSRA) continue to impact HOU/SGR and
south this evening as outflow/sea breeze boundaries move across
the terminals. Expect this activity to dissipate with loss of
heating by early evening, with gusty and variable winds (15-25
knots) possible near the terminals as this convection weakens and
remnant boundaries move across them. VFR conditions tonight may
gradually give way to MVFR/possibly IFR ceilings and visibility
from fog again early Thursday morning, but restrictions are
expected to be brief. A few showers may also develop along the
coast Thursday morning along a remnant surface boundary and have
also added a VCSH mention in for GLS. Otherwise, VFR conditions
return by mid-morning with light easterly winds becoming
established during the day Thursday.



Currently... a few showers and thunderstorms are moving
southwestward throughout SE Texas with more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity out over the Gulf. Inland activity should
gradually diminish throughout the late afternoon and evening,
while the showers and storms out over the water will likely
persist through Friday. Thursday is expected to be somewhat drier
than today across inland areas, however isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected to return Friday afternoon. A much
drier pattern is forecast beginning this weekend as a ridge
builds in overhead.

These dry conditions will also allow high temperatures to creep
up into the weekend. Highs are forecast to range from the low/mid
90s for the next couple of days before slowly creeping upward to
the 94-97 degree range. Heat index values will also creep up
through the next several days, generally reaching the 100-110
degree range Sunday through Wednesday. 11

Mainly light and variable winds to start, but gradually become more
consistently onshore through Friday along with continued, but lower
chances for showers or a thunderstorm. By Friday night or Saturday,
a developing low over the western part of the state should induce
stronger winds over the waters. Waves will lag the strengthening
winds, but should continue to build into the latter part of the
weekend. 25


College Station (CLL)      75  94  75  95  76 /   0  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  95  76  95  77 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  90  81  91  82 /  30  30  10  30  10




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