Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271522
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1022 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Surface analysis this morning continues to sink the boundary
associated with the shortwave that moved through the region
yesterday southward today, and into the eastern zones of the
forecast area. This boundary along with the seabreeze as it moves
onshore, should act as potential lifting mechanisms for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening. 12Z Upper air
soundings this morning across SE Texas show a decent amount of
moisture in the lower levels between 900-850mb, and PWs ranging
between 0.70 and 1.10inches. Surface observations have dewpoints
across the CWA between the mid 60s and into the lower 70s. If high
temperatures pan out as forecasted, the convective temperature
should be met by late afternoon.

Forecast soundings are especially in favor of the 21-03Z time frame,
when convective initiation will be possible, with CAPE values
stretching between 2500-3000J/kg. This focus for showers and
thunderstorms will shift from the eastern half of the CWA in the
afternoon, into the northeastern region of southeast Texas as we
move into the evening hours. Therefore, added PoPs to the forecast
between the 00Z to 06Z time frame to account for the chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

Minor changes to the temperature forecast in this morning`s update.
Tweaked high temperatures slightly in the southwest corner of the
CWA to account for the cloud cover as seen on visible satellite
imagery. High temperatures should range between the lower 80s near
the coast and into the mid 80s farther inland.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      84  67  85  68  79 /  10  20  10  20  80
Houston (IAH)              84  69  85  71  82 /  30  10  10  10  80
Galveston (GLS)            82  72  81  74  80 /  20  10  10  10  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...08



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