Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291742
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION...
Isolated areas of MVFR are possible early and then lift to VFR.
Airmass worked over from storms last night and from subsident zone
north of the activity over the Gulf. Texas Tech 3km WRF shows the
potential for redevelopment after 20-21Z with best chances for
thunderstorms from KCXO to the coast. Texas Tech 3km WRF and the
NAM end this activity around 03Z or shortly thereafter. Guidance
and GFS20 show potential for a return to MVFR starting around 09Z
to 11Z.

40

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Precip off the coast has been contracting and dissipating as the MCV
weakens. Gradient is loosening and we can probably cancel the
Coastal Flood Advisory and Gale Warnings early if this trend
persists.

For the update, we brought grids up to date with latest
obs/satellite/radar trends. Think we`ll mostly see a break in the
action for a while as atmos recovers. But suspect with daytime
heating and residual boundaries we can probably get some sct
showers and tstms to redevelop across inland areas later this
afternoon. Think broadbrushed 30-50% pops look good. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      80  69  84  69  85 /  40  30  40  20  50
Houston (IAH)              80  70  84  71  85 /  50  30  60  30  50
Galveston (GLS)            80  74  81  76  83 /  40  50  60  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
     zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Matagorda.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
     following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...
     Matagorda.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
     following zones: Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this
     afternoon for the following zones: Galveston Bay.

     Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...40



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