Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 310904
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT HAS
TRIGGERED SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AREA OF
PRECIP IS CLIPPING THE WESTERN EDGE OF SE TX. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL EITHER WANE OR BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z SO WILL NOT CARRY
POPS THIS MORNING. AT 3 AM...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
SHREVEPORT TO COLLEGE STATION TO HONDO. A COLD FRONT LAGGED A BIT
BEHIND AND EXTENDED FROM TEXARKANA TO WACO TO SAN ANGELO. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE RAPID PROGRESS SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 12-15Z. DEW PTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE
30`S AND THIS DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY. RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER 20S BY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE SO THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. TEMPS ARE TRICKY TODAY AS CAA
WILL COMPETE WITH A RELATIVELY WARM START. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND THEN PUSH
EAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH SAT/SUN MORNING WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NE ZONES EACH MORNING AND
LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES.

THINGS GET MUDDLED IN A HURRY FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK. 00Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE 12Z RUNS. NOW THE
ECMWF/GFS BOTH HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY
STALL OR SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL MAKE
IT INTO SE TX. THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT TO A CROCKETT TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLUMBUS LINE ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND AN ACTIVE JETSTREAM ALOFT...FEEL
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
WILL CARRY POPS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AND INCREASED SKY COVER. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. 43

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFF THE COAST MIDMORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE REACHING
SCEC CRITERIA AROUND 10 AM AND THEN ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A SCEC FOR THIS MORNING AND A SCA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECASTED. SEAS
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD AND LIKELY REACH 7 FEET BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO PULL EAST SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE EAST.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA QUICKLY SUNDAY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES. ONSHORE WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AGAIN
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. 23

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING ALLOWING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20%
RANGE WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A DRY
SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. 23


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  40  65  42  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  45  67  43  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  56  65  56  71 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
     BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20
     NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



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