Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 261654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Scattered showers and storms should start to develop as temps
warm into the mid 80`s. Will maintain vcts wording for all TAF
sites except for KUTS which appears to be in much drier air per
satellite derived PW fields. Broken VFR cigs possible for much of
the aftn with residual cirrus overnight. A weak pressure gradient
will keep light winds in place through tonight. Fcst soundings
show some dry air beneath the cloud bases so some gusty winds near
storms will be possible. Short term guidance is aggressive with
rain chances near the coast between 09-12z and added VCSH for both
KLBX and KGLS. Convective temps are in the mid 80`s again on
Tuesday and expect convection to redevelop by early Tuesday
afternoon. 43


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

Surface high over southern Missouri continues to shift to the
south, with associated drier air over the northern and northeastern
counties (GOES-16 precipitable water imagery showing 1.6-1.7
inches) likely limiting rain chances for those areas this
morning. The main update to the forecast was to lower PoPs over
the northeast through the remainder of the morning as a result,
with isolated to scattered showers and storms expected to develop
inland this afternoon as convective temperatures between 84 and
87 are reached. The KHGX VAD wind profiler shows some slightly
stronger low level winds than the past few mornings (easterly
around 10 knots) and expect storm motions today to be a bit faster
than what was observed this weekend. Forecast soundings do show a
bit of an inverted-v (indicating downdraft acceleration will be
possible from evaporational cooling), so gusty outflow winds will
certainly be possible in addition to brief heavy rain today...
with additional showers or storms developing along these outflow


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

Slightly drier air has backdoored into northeast parts of the
region overnight with observed dewpoints currently in the mid to
upper 60s there. Closer to the coast, surface troffiness
continues and is providing a convergent zone for another round of
shra/tstms to develop. These will probably persist into the early
& mid morning hours then, like the past few days, eventually
transition inland later in the morning & afternoon with daytime
heating. Convective temps a bit higher, probably ~85-86F, so it
could take a little longer for inland expansion. Can`t rule out
some localized heavy downpours w/ PW`s near 2". Also could see
some gusty winds in the stronger cells given the profiles of some
of the fcst soundings.

Guidance doesn`t project the remnants of the disturbance now
situated across nw Tx to make its way into se Tx until late
tonight & Tue, but still worth keeping an eye on in case timing
and/or details change. Wx on Tues-Thurs doesn`t look a whole lot
different that the previous several days. Upper weakness should
linger across the area along with respectable amounts of moisture
to work with. We should start seeing a bit less overall precip
coverage going into the weekend as mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area. 47

Little change to overall marine forecast, with periods of showers
and thunderstorms possible across the coastal waters through the
upcoming week. Light east to southeast flow is expected until mid
week, when winds and therefore seas increase again in response to a
developing surface low over the lee of the Rockies. Caution or
advisory flags may be required for this increase in winds/seas as
early as Wednesday.

Continued east to southeast flow this week will promote tide levels
around 1-1.5 feet above normal and strong rip currents. However,
tide levels should remain below critical thresholds for coastal
flooding issues. 11


College Station (CLL)      88  72  89  72  91 /  40  30  50  20  40
Houston (IAH)              87  73  88  73  89 /  50  30  50  20  40
Galveston (GLS)            86  79  86  79  87 /  40  50  50  50  50




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