Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 202023
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
323 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT TOO MUCH BY WAY OF PCPN FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SO FAR
THIS AFTN...WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL NNW OF
THE AREA. AS PER THE GOING TRENDS WITH THE MOTION OF THIS PCPN AND
ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POPS SHOULD STAY
OVER THE NRN PARTS OF SE TX TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE
OUT WAA TYPE SHRA OVER THE SRN HALF AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TIGHTENS
UP. AS SUCH THE BLANKET 20% POPS LOOK GOOD. THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES
TO LINGER MON INTO TUES MORNING GIVEN THE PROGS OF A VERY SLOW SWD
MOVEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS TO BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUES
AND WEDS. BUT MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PATTERN APPEAR TO BE
OUR NEXT "BEST" CHANCES FOR PCPN STARTING FRI (AND MAYBE EXTENDING
INTO THE WEEKEND). OTHERWISE WARMING TEMPS/INCREASING HUMIDITY FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A STRONG (FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) COLD FRONT NEXT TUE. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF THIS HOLDS UP. 41

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY PERSIST. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE UPPER TX COAST AND MAY TURN WINDS TO THE SW ON
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK FROM THE SOUTH
AND MAY BUILD SEAS TO MODERATE LEVELS. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  81  63  84  61 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  81  64  84  62 /  20  20  20  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  67  77  65 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99



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