Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210539
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS
ILLUSTRATED GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER SE TX. THERE WAS ALSO A
LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD MAINLY FROM THE MID TEXAS COAST ACROSS THE
KCLL AREA. THE NAM12 FORECASTS THIS LOW-LEVEL JET TO STRENGTHEN
OVER KCLL AND KUTS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. THE RESULT
WILL BE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE LOCATED OVER KCLL AND KUTS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE REMAINING INLAND SITES AT
LEAST THROUGH AROUND 10Z OR SO.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION
OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF SE TX THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED BETWEEN HOBBS NEW MEXICO AND LUBBOCK WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE E-NE OF THE LOW. ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT 850
MB...DEW PTS HAVE INCREASE TO 10 C TO 13 C FROM BRO TO CRP. IT IS
DRIER TOWARD THE LCH AREA AND PRECIPITATION IS REALLY HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING EAST INTO THE DRIER AIR. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWAT NEAR 1.22 INCHES AT CRP AND ONLY 0.75 AT LCH. AT 700 MB...A
S/WV WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS. 18Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEATHER
BECOMING QUITE ACTIVE SATURDAY AFTN/SAT NITE. 43

CLIMATE...
TOMORROW...FRIDAY NOVEMBER 21ST...IS THE ANNIVERSARY OF ONE OF THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAKS TO AFFECT THE HOUSTON AREA.
BACK IN 1992...A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED AT LEAST SIX TORNADOES. AN EF-4 TORNADO ROARED THROUGH
CHANNELVIEW BETWEEN 330 AND 400 PM AND THIS WAS THE LAST EF-4
TORNADO TO AFFECT THE HOUSTON AREA. DAMAGES WERE ABOUT 100 MILLION
DOLLARS. THANKFULLY...THERE WERE NO FATALITIES. 43

WITH ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY...THIS SEEMS A BIT
INSIGNIFICANT BUT ON NOVEMBER 22 1937...SE TX ENDURED ITS EARLIEST
DOCUMENTED MEASURABLE SNOW - KEY WORD - DOCUMENTED. CROCKETT
MEASURED 5 INCHES OF SNOW...MADISONVILLE AND COLLEGE STATION EACH
REPORTED 3 INCHES AND HUNTSVILLE REPORTED AN INCH OF SNOW. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  73  62  71  57 /  50  60  30  80  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              61  74  61  74  61 /  50  40  20  80  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  72  65  72  63 /  30  40  20  80  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



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