Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 220953
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
453 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF PRE-DAWN FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...
LOCALLY DENSE...AS WINDS HAVE LAID DOWN OVER MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES. LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. A WEAK NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE DAY...HANGING UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
CITY AND THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT PROVIDE THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS...WITHIN AN MOISTENING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...TO
INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A
RESIDENT MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINT AIR MASS...WITH LOW 80 F
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RECEIVING
A BRIEF AFTERNOON DOWNPOUR OF HEARING A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO.

5H LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLIES...WILL BE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE STATE THAT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMS EARTH DAY. MILD
AND MORE HUMID MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE MID 60S WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS (NEAR) STATIONARY SHALLOW
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND...WITH DAILY CLOUD COVER BREAKS WORKING IN TANDEM
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVELS/INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...EACH
SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LAST.

THE PASSAGE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH
IN CLOSING OUT THE WORK WEEK SO...AS EARLY MORNING WINDS DIE
OUT...FOG WILL BECOME MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD. MODELING HAS A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...REGIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING THE TARGET DAYS. 85H
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE 20 DEG C THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE
80S. THE PERIOD ENDS UNDER MORE OVERCAST WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SETTLES INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND
SETS UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY-
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...OVER EASTERN TEXAS. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY FEW CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO ONGOING TAFS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE.
PATCHY MVFR FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. ALSO EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS W/ SOME HEATING. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGHT DRIFT INTO AREAS BETWEEN I-10 AND THE COAST DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA. MEAGER AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN
THRU LATE EVNG HOURS. PATCHY FOG/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD
SUNRISE WED. 47

&&

.MARINE...
PARTS OF THE BAYS MIGHT SEE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS IN ASSOCIATION W/ WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE BRIEF IT DOES OCCUR WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING LATER IN THE DAY. GENERAL LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THIS WEEKEND SO WOULD EXPECT CORRESPONDING RISE IN
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS (POSSIBLY TO CAUTION CRITERIA AT TIMES). 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  62  85  64  84 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  85  65  84 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  67  79  68  79 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31



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