Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 210523
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1123 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS HANGING TOUGH TONIGHT AS CLEARING LINE INCHES EVER
CLOSER. THE CLEARING LINE IS ALMOST TO KUTS AND NOT SURE THEY WILL
STAY OVC025 OVERNIGHT. OVERALL TREND IS FOR MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE THROUGH 15Z OR SO WITH AGAIN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT VEERING TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING AND SE DURING THE AFTN. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...
EVENING STRATUS DECK SHOWING EROSION OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA... AND THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL CENTER AROUND THE PRESENCE /OR
ABSENCE/ OF LOW CLOUDS AND ITS EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A
FAIRLY STOUT INVERSION NEAR 900 MB... ALLOWING CLOUDS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SOLUTION AND CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES...WHILE RAW MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATES A MORE DRAMATIC CLEARING. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS /DECREASING CLOUDS
OVER THE EAST/...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST SKIES WILL
CLEAR...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION IN FOR MOST OF THE REGION
AND ALSO TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN OVER THE EAST WHERE MORE
CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF DRIER AIR
IS ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER CLEARING THAN ANTICIPATED...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN ADVERTISED WITH AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING /WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE/. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50
ALONG THE COAST.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  61  50  69  52 /  10   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              46  62  50  71  58 /  10   0  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            52  61  55  68  61 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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