Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 171527
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1027 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING SOUTH
OF HOUSTON AND ALONG THE COAST. MAIN AREA OF LIST WITH THE SYSTEM
IS OFF THE COAST WITH A BROAD AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF. LOOKING AT 12Z LCH SOUNDING THERE
APPEARS TO BE A THIN MOIST LAYER NEAR 700MB THAT WOULD MAKE
LIFTING THOSE PARCELS UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE IT. AS
THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO COME
TO AN END. THERE IS A SECOND SHORT WAVE BACK OVER THE S PLAINS
WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP 20 POPS DURING THIS TIME AS LEAD SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW 12Z GUIDANCE HANDLES THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GIVEN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...ALSO KNOCKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. MAY REACH 70F IN A FEW AREAS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...

SENT OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. SEEING ISOLATED STORMS IN
WHARTON AND FORT BEND COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. RAISED POPS
OFFSHORE WHERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.

33

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 5000 FEET. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH OCASSIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRINGER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...STAYED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  57  78  58  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  58  80  59  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  63  75  66  76 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39



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