Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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242
FXUS64 KHGX 051426
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
926 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO
SE TX. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WHICH MATCHES UP WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
JUST OFF THE SFC IS STILL EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN IN THE AFTN WITH
LOW RH VALUES DURING THE MID/LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SOME LIGHT CIRRUS AND SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR. OTHER
THAN A FEW SHORT TERM TWEAKS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING
FCST. JUST ANOTHER VERY NICE SPRING DAY...ENJOY!43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT TODAY WILL HELP TO KEEP THINGS QUIET
ACROSS SE TX JUST A BIT LONGER. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FCST REMAINS
THE UPCOMING CHANGE WITH THE MESO SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND
THE RETURN OF RAIN CHCS TO THE REGION. THE ELEVATED RIDGING OVER
THE REGION (THAT HAS BEEN TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO ROBUST LOWS ON
EACH U.S. COAST) IS STILL PROGGED TO FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND AS THE
LOW OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. WHILE THE LATEST RUNS ARE
INDICATING A MORE N-NE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM (COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS) WE SHOULD SEE AREAWIDE POPS RETURN TO THE FCST BY MON AS
THE IN- CREASINGLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO DRAW DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DRYLINE TO THE WEST...AND PERHAPS THE SEABREEZE. AS FOR THE REST
OF THE EX- TENDED FCST...SRN STREAM JET NOT LOOKING QUITE AS
ACTIVE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BUT NOT COMFORTABLE WITH LOWERING
POPS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME. 41

AVIATION...
STILL A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME INSIGNIFICANT MIFG AT
CXO/LBX AT SUNRISE. OTHERWISE MORE OF THE SAME...VFR. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AS WEAKENING FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE AREA. VERY DRY COLUMN THIS
AFTERNOON. FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE MORE SUNNY DRY WEATHER THEN PERHAPS
SATURDAY MORNING A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE FOR MIFG AT LBX AS MOISTURE
RETURN GETS UNDERWAY.
45

MARINE...
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TAP THIS MORNING AS W TO NW WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY LEADING TO FALLING SEAS
AND WINDS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY AND
INCREASES WITH PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WILL PROBABLY
NEED SCEC/SCA SATURDAY NIGHT. LENGTHY FETCH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SEAS OF 6-8 FEET AND 15-25 KNOT SSE WINDS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  57  83  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  58  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  70  79  70  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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