Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 242052
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTERS OF DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CELLS WORKING IN TANDEM THIS
AFTERNOON OVER (EASTERN) BRAZORIA COUNTY TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2.5 INCH
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. NEARLY STATIONARY
..THESE CELLS HAVE SPIT OUT NORTHWARD-MOVING COLD POOLS THAT HAVE
THEIR LEADING EDGE GUST FRONTS ENTERING THE CITY OF HOUSTON. THE
AIR MASS OVER THE CITY IS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 90S OVER LOWER 70S
AND 12Z RAOB PROG SOUNDINGS (NAM) SUGGEST THAT THIS OUTFLOW WILL
BE ENTERING AN UNSTABLE OF ENOUGH AIR MASS TO PRODUCE FURTHER
SLOW MOVERS WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR DOWNBURST WIND (WEAK
85H WIND AND INVERTED V PROFILES). NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE NOTED IN THE NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW INDICATES
THAT ONCE HEATING IS LOST AT SUNSET...THIS MESOSCALE BEHAVIOR WILL
WANE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND GO QUIET LATE IN THE EVENING.

AS WAS THE CASE WITH PRIOR SPECTRAL SCALE MODELING SOLUTIONS...THE
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
AND ENCOMPASS EASTERN TEXAS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION WAS TRIGGERED BY NORTHERN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
..THIS AFTERNOON`S ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE MORE MESOSCALE IN NATURE
AND FOCUS UPON DISCERNIBLE LOWER LAYER BOUNDARIES. FRIDAY`S POPS
WILL DEPENDENT UPON ONE MAJOR FACTOR...THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING. AS
MOISTURE/STABILITY INDICES REMAIN NEARLY UNVARIED... IF EASTERN
TEXAS STILL LAYS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF WESTERN RIDGING BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT IN THIS SCATTERED
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING BLOSSOM-TYPE CONVECTION. THE
FOCUS WILL EITHER BE ON AN EVOLVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OR UPON
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TODAY`S ACTION. FORECAST LEANS
TO STRONGER RIDGING AND THUS LESS INITIALIZATION OVER A SMALLER
AREA...AROUND SLIGHT CHANCES WILL BE THE CALL. THE WEEKEND IS WHEN
ALL-LEVEL RIDGING TAKES BETTER ANCHOR OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
...SHUTTING OFF THE SHRA/TSRA VALVE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
A FEW DAYS OF SUPPRESSION WILL MAKE FOR SUNNIER SKIES AND EVER-
WARMER MORNINGS THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY LEAD TO INTERIOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COMING VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 1000-5H THICKNESSES INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 580S...WITH
85H TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 20S...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ARE GOOD SIGNS THAT...IF THIS RECENTLY-MOIST GROUND DRIES OUT (AND
IT SHOULD OVER THE WEEKEND)...THAT LATE JULY TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND
EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO CREEP INTO NEXT WEEK`S DAY-TO-DAY
CONVERSATION(S). 31

MARINE...
STILL EXPECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THEN DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES EAST TX AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY LOW SEAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  98  76  98  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  97  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  92  80  90  81 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31



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