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000
FXUS64 KHGX 061029
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
429 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS WERE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS EMERGED BEGINNING SUNDAY. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL SITE MEX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS
DIFFERED BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO
TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODELS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR TODAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO SE TX. EXPECT THE
CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND TEMPERATURES TODAY AT SOME
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY GET UP TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO ONE
MORE NIGHT OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE MORE DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 WAS DRIER FOR
SATURDAY EVEN WITH THE MODEL PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE ECMWF WAS VERY WET WHILE THE GFS WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS DID NOT SHOW A LOT OF INSTABILITY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS CONFIRMED BY FORECASTS OF THE LIFTED
INDEX FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF
DIFFERED EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY. DECIDED LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE
PREVIOUS RAIN CHANCE FORECAST AND BLEND IN WITH THE SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND LOCATION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS PUSH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES TOWARD
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.

40

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX TODAY SHOULD
REACH THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N/NW WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. WILL HAVE SCEC AS
DO NOT SEE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20KTS TO WARRANT SCA. SCEC WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER E TX TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH
OFF THE COAST SOMETIME SUNDAY BUT ALL MODELS SHOW CONFLICTING
TIMING. GFS/ECMWF EVEN HAVING TROUBLE DETERMINING IF A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY (ECMWF) OR TUESDAY (GFS). THIS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT WINDS/SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ECMWF HAS STRONG COLD FRONT ON WED WHERE
GFS HAS FRONT COMING THROUGH NEXT THUR.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  38  67  50  69 /   0   0  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  39  66  51  71 /  10   0  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            59  47  61  55  67 /  10   0  10  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39