Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 230519
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1119 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER...MAINLY TO TAKE OUT THE SEVERE MENTION
AND TO TWEAK THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE END
OF THE RAIN CHANCES.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH WAS SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AT 845 PM...WITH VERY GOOD DIFFLUENCE NOTED AT 300 MB
OVERHEAD OF SE TX. WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST WEST OF KCLL AND
CROCKETT...AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIKE THE 01Z HRRR AND THE 00Z
NAM12 WHICH PUSHES THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. THIS TIMING WILL BE TIED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE TWO DOMINATE LINES OF
CONVECTION WHICH WERE FORMING AT 9 PM. ONE WAS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND THE OTHER FROM NEAR FRIENDSWOOD AND
PEARLAND SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID TX COAST.

AGREE WITH SPC WITH THE UPDATED SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
BEING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR COLLEGE STATION
TO DAYTON IN SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY. THIS MEANS THAT ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR...MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS WASHINGTON...GRIMES...AND INTO
WALKER COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TWEAK THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO PAST
MIDNIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW
OVER BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE VALLEY MOVING ACROSS SE TX. SFC ANALYSIS
HAS WARM FRONT DIAGONAL FROM NORTH OF KAUS TO KCLL DOWN TO THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION BASED ON HRRR/RAP
TRENDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z. ALREADY
SEEING THE START OF A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING UNDER UPPER LOW OVER
WEST HILL COUNTRY.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...FAIRLY STOUT CLUSTER OF TSRA W OF KUTS AND E OF
KCLL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE FOR KUTS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THINK SQUALL LINE OF STORMS WILL REACH THESE TERMINALS
03-04Z AND MOVING OUT PAST 06-07Z. CIGS AND OVERALL AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT WITH SW WINDS TOMORROW.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...CURRENT AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH HOUSTON TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HR. STORMS MAY DROP CIGS
TO IFR WITH SOME LIMITED VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS. SHOULD HAVE A BREAK
FOR A FEW HRS AHEAD OF NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE A
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. LOOK FOR STORMS TO REACH HOUSTON TERMINALS
05-07Z SO ADDED TEMPO FOR +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS. ONCE LINE MOVES
THROUGH EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE ALONG WITH OVERALL AVIATION WEATHER
CONDITIONS. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

KLBX/KGLS...LINE OF SHRA CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED AND MOVE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HR. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT FROM 05-08Z WHEN A LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. MENTION +TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS FOR POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH. CIGS AND OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 08-09Z. VFR TOMORROW WITH SW WINDS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  45  64  40 /  90  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  49  65  41 /  90  10   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  56  64  50 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39


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