Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 222039
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NNE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAK (BUT BRIEF)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE WX FOR SE TX GENERALLY DRY/QUIET THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS. BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN POSSIBLE (MAINLY OVER THE NRN COUNTIES) BY
THURS AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. NOT EXPECTING FROPA
FOR MOST (IF ANY) OF OUR CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN BECAUSE OF IT. THIS COULD GIVE US A FEW
MORE DAYS OF GENERALLY DRY/QUIET WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BIG CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL/ERN U.S.. A VERY BROAD/DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENT-
RAL PLAINS SUNDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THRU
THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH A POSSIBLE STRONG-FOR-THIS
-TIME-OF-YEAR COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE MON/TUES. SLGT CHC
TO CHC POPS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE FRONT STARTING LATE SAT WITH
STRONG WAA SETTING UP. BEST POPS SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
MON NIGHT/TUE. THEN COOL/DRY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
PROGGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE
STILL TALKING FCSTS FOR DAYS 7/8 AND BEYOND. 41

&&

.MARINE...
YET AGAIN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND
FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SE
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WED NIGHT BUT WILL BE BORDERLINE
SCEC CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME BUT OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ANY OTHER MARINE HAZARDS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  85  64  84  65 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  79  68  79  68 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99



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