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000
FXUS64 KHGX 220505
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIMING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TONIGHT`S CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS DISPLAYING ENOUGH ROTATION TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST QUARTER-SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES NORTHWEST
OF KCXO. THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGH REZ SHORT TERM MODELS TAKE A
JAGGED LINE OF CONVECTION TO THE COAST THROUGH 09Z...TEMPO`ING
STORMS TO AFFECT THE GREATER HOUSTON AREA FROM AROUND 07Z THROUGH
09Z. UNCLEAR AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LINE WILL SAG...BUT VCTS AT
KLBX (TO COAST AROUND 10Z) JUST BEFORE SUNRISE IS OF MODERATE
PROBABILITY. SKIES CLEAR OUT TO AREAWIDE VFR THROUGH MID-MORNING.
A WEAK EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...INLAND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONS ITSELF OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MONITORING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG/SEVERE...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING UNDER A VERY GOOD LOOKING
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GREATEST RISK CONTINUES TO BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE...RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT SOME 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MADISON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
MORE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THIS AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.
42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 1 AM CDT.

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON OUR NORTH(WEST)ERN DOORSTEP...TIMED
TO IMPACT KCLL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...KUTS BY 01-02Z. MANY SHORT
RANGE HI REZ MODELS (THAT INITIATED WELL)...SLOWLY TAKE A MORE
RAGGED...OR MORE DIFFUSE...LINE TO THE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HANDLED POINTS FROM CONROE SOUTHWARD WITH A VCTS...WILL TEMPO AS
NEEDED DURING THIS 00-03Z WATCH AND WAIT PERIOD. ACTIVITY SHOULD
COME TO A CLOSE SHORTLY PAST MIDNIGHT...MAYBE CLOSER TO 09Z NEAR
THE COAST...WITH VFR FOR THE MID-LATE PERIOD. BACKGROUND WIND FIELD
WILL PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS...EARLY EASTERLY FLOW
AT COAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY PAST 19Z WITH THE INLAND MOVEMENT
OF THE LATE MORNING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS
COMBINING WITH A COLD FRONT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY LARGE CAP WAS INHIBITING ANY
CONVECTION OVER THE HGX COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 330 PM.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE CAP TO ERODE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
RES MODELS WERE PUSHING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM...AND THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL SET OF COUNTIES BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TAKEN NEAR CLL ALL
FORECAST THE CAPE TO BE AROUND 2800 TO 3000 AND A DOWNDRAFT CAPE
AROUND 1450. FEEL THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WINDS. THERE
IS A LESSOR THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOALTED
TORNADO DUE TO HELICITY VALUES OF ABOUT 150. AGREE WITH THE
MODERATE RISK GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR KURTEN
IN NORTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY TO MADISONVILLE TO LOVELADY TO
CENTRALIA. A SLIGHT RISK WAS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM EAGLE
LAKE TO HOUSTON TO LIBERTY. THE MAIN TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE
DURING THE EVENING BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

THE MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. COMBINING THIS FACT WITH A SEABREEZE AND THE ONSHORE
FLOW MEANS RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER SE TX THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
BUT THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A DRYING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING TO NEAR 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S. BOTH MODELS THEN
DEVELOP A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 40

MARINE...
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WILL LET THE SCEC EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS. HOWEVER THIS
ONSHORE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND (AND MAYHAP THE REST OF THE SUMMER). 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  91  72  91  71 /  60  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  90  72  90  72 /  50  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  84  75  81  74 /  40  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31