Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 291125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Other than cosmetic tweaks to better match observations, very
little change with the 12Z TAFs. Expectation is still for the
typical diurnal thunderstorm activity, but perhaps a little
reduced in time as upper ridging starts to build. More significant
impacts to precipitation potential could be in store for the
weekend as the ridge continues to strengthen, but for the time
being things should not change very much from the past day or two.




As has been the case the last few mornings, widely scattered
showers continue to develop over the Upper Texas Coastal waters of
the Gulf of Mexico. A few of these showers are moving inland but
weaken rapidly. Upper air analysis at 500mb for 00Z shows upper
level ridge over the Desert SW with another ridge over the W
Atlantic off the coast of the Carolinas. In between the two ridges
is a weakness with slight troughing from the Great Lakes towards
the Texas Gulf Coast. This pattern supports mainly NW flow aloft
through the Plains with a couple of short waves moving across the
Plains and Midwest. Water vapor imagery shows a TUTT over the
western Gulf which will provide at least some ascent today as it
moves towards the Rio Grande and Mexico coast. The CRP/LCh 00Z
soundings show about 2 inches of precipitable water and expect
this moisture to remain over the area today. Forecast will keep 20
PoPs this morning with an increase to 30/40 PoPs along the coast
as lift from the sea breeze supports more scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity during peak heating. A few of the stronger
storms could produce some gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall
like the last few days.

Synoptic models are in pretty good agreement with the evolution of
the upper level pattern for the next 7 days. The troughing over
the Great Lakes into Texas flattens through the weekend and the
upper level ridge near Carolinas retrogrades more over the N Gulf
Coast by Monday. Precipitable water trends through the weekend
range from 1.8 to 2 inches but then decrease below 1.8 inches
going into the work week. Forecast will keep 20 to 40 PoPs for the
weekend but expect a dry forecast going into the work week.

Upper level ridge builds over much of the Plains through the
middle of next week supporting a few rain free days and max temps
reaching the mid/upper 90s. Heat index values will push above the
105F mark in a few areas for early next week but this will be
typical for the end of July or beginning of August. The ridge
seems to weaken a bit next Thursday/Friday as a weak upper low or
TUTT forms over the NW Gulf during this time. Precipitable water
values also increase to above 1.8 inches during this time. This
will support the return of rain chances for the end of next week.


Winds largely continue to be southerly and in the 10 to 15 knot
range, generating waves of 3 feet or less. Radar shows a handful of
showers over the Gulf zones, but no lightning has been observed.
Expect much of the same through the weekend. The relatively
quiescent conditions should also result in tide levels that do not
stray too far from normal levels. Should any thunderstorms develop,
winds and waves could be locally higher in and near the storm.



College Station (CLL)      96  76  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  77  96  77  96 /  30  10  30  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            92  82  92  82  92 /  20  10  30  10  20



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