Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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051
FXUS64 KHGX 291749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Still seeing activity move in from the west and dissipate over the
CWFA this morning. This subsident pattern will help to keep things
quiet here the rest of the afternoon. Anticipating another bout of
high cloud blow-off tonight/early tomorrow from storms to the west
(in Central TX). This could have an impact with the development of
patchy fog/low clouds. As such, did keep with previous forecast of
MVFR CIGS in the TEMPO group overnight. We should have better rain
chance tomorrow as the airmass continues to modify (but only going
with VCSH at IAH for now). 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Another quiet surface map this morning with weak high pressure
over SE Texas allowing for light winds. Thunderstorms have
remained west of the area over south central Texas with quite a
bit of cirrus blow off from the storms over the area. The morning
cloud cover should thin through the day but still may have been
enough to hold current temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Max temperatures this afternoon may be a degree or two lower than
yesterday but still plenty warm in the upper 80s. Forecast will
keep some 20 percent rain chances for an isolate storm or shower
but like yesterday expect most activity to be suppressed. Based on
12z CRP/LCH soundings precipitable water values range from 1.3 to
1.7 inches across the area. Capping from the elevated mixed layer
is not as strong but still some weak subsidence from ridging
aloft. That said the ridge does not appear to be as strong as
forecast so tomorrow into Tuesday could be more active with
thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorm chances still look limited
tomorrow but increase more on Tuesday as the ridge will be weaker.
Overall just minor adjustments to the forecast for the latest
observed trends and model trends.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      88  71  86  71  84 /  20  10  20  20  40
Houston (IAH)              87  70  86  72  86 /  20  10  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            82  76  83  77  85 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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