Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 252040
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS FLARING UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW
IN THE LOWER 90S SO EXPECT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
WIDELY-SCATTERED CELLS...OR THE EXISTENCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
...ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TODAY`S LACK
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A GOOD SIGN THAT UPPER RIDGING IS BEGINNING
TO ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE UPON THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THIS ELONGATED
RIDGE WILL ALIGN ITSELF PARALLEL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE...ALONG WITH A FORECAST DRIER RESIDENT AIR MASS...TO
SUPPRESS THIS WEEKEND`S DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES. MAINLY CLEAR AND NEAR
CALM OVERNIGHTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF SHALLOW
RURAL FOG...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES THROUGH THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OR CLIMB TO WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF LATE JULY CLIMATE STANDARDS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE NWP FORECAST HAS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING
BACK TO THEIR RECENT 2 INCH PWAT VALUES DUE TO MORE HUMID AIR POOLING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN TEXAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR MASS AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AT AROUND MID-WEEK. N-NE TX CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL FORCE OUTFLOW/PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR HEATED
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. THUS...AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BACKS OFF IN FAVOR OF BROAD MS VALLEY-CENTERED TROUGHING
...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE ON THE RISE FROM TUESDAY ON
THROUGH LATE WEEK. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF PRIOR DAY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...OR A NEARLY-STATIONARY DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
LINGERING AROUND THE COAST...WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS NEEDED IN
REGENERATING DAILY CONVECTION. MINOR HEAT RELIEF WILL BE AFFORDED
IN THIS SITUATION OF RETURN RAINFALL AND THICKER OVERCAST...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE EXTREMA WILL BE REGULATED TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
31

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL EASE SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  96  77  95  77 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  92  81  92  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/42


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