Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 280349
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CHURNING EASTWARD OUT OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH A COLDER AIR MASS ROTATING AROUND ITS WESTERN
FLANK AND PUSHING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...IN TANDEM WITH A SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTLINE
SURFACE LOW AND ITS APPENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
OUR NORTH CENTRAL CWA. THIS LOW TO MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY THE FOCUS
FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
COOLING BROUGHT ON BY THE NEARING UPPER CORE LOW...LEAD TO A FEW
CELLS DISPLAYING JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL ROTATION IN PRODUCING
FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN BRAZOS COUNTY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION JUST ENTERING OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELING NOT DOING MUCH WITH
THIS LINE...ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR MAINLY
A DRY LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. A VERY PLEASANT
BUT MODERATE NORTH WIND DAY TUESDAY...LOW HUMIDITIES WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION (NORTH FLOW)/LINGERING CLOUDS REGULATING WARMTH TO ONLY
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S (AN AVERAGE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL)
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE NE TX BY
TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A NORTH TO WEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
WILL LAST INTO EARLY MAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
LLVL CONVERGENT ZONE IS SET UP FROM ROUGHLY HUNTSVILLE TO BRENHAM.
DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF SE TX TO BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN. SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE SOME SCT TSTMS ONGOING TONIGHT GENERALLY N OF I-10 AND
ESP NE PARTS UP CLOSER TO LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA. STRONG UPDRAFTS &
HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY WX THREATS W/ ANY STRONGER CELLS THAT MANAGE
TO DEVELOP THOUGH STRONGER WINDS ALWAYS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO SE TX. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THRU THE MORNING HOURS W/ GRADUAL LIFTING IN THE
AFTN. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  66  50  72  52 /  40  20  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  70  50  74  53 /  40  20  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  73  57  71  62 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31


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