Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 282130
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST 21Z SFC OBS AND ANALYSIS HAS COASTAL LOW NOW OFF THE
COASTAL BEND/MIDDLE TX COAST IN THE GULF. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED A
BIT MORE NORTH BUT STILL STRETCHES EAST OUT OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
N GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE S U.S. WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN AND THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE N PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. OVERALL EXPECT A
LITTLE RIDGING ALOFT INTO MON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE WARM FRONT TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN FORECASTING
TEMPS/WX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARM ADVECTION DOES INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LATEST RADAR SHOWS AN AXIS OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER C TX WHICH LOOKS TO BE EDGING/SPREADING EAST.
RAIN CHANCES OF 50/60 PERCENT LOOK GOOD...AT A MINIMUM THINK THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH -RA/DZ TO PRODUCE MINIMAL RAIN AMOUNTS. THE OTHER
ISSUE TONIGHT MAY BE PATCHY FOG. MOISTURE MAY NOT BE QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SEA FOG FORMATION BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE THAT WAY SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WHEN SFC DEWPOINTS REACH MID 60S.

WARM FRONT TOMORROW MAY NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTHWARD. GFS
SEEMS TO WANT TO PUSH IT FARTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF/NAM. NAM HAS
VERY LITTLE WARM FRONTAL PUSH TOMORROW. WARM FRONT MAY STALL SUN
NIGHT AND THEN PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY. GFS SEEMS TO
BE FASTER WITH THE WARM FRONT BUT EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MORE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH WILL BLAST THE WARM FRONT
NORTH BRINING TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MON NIGHT AND THEN 70S FOR TUE.
SEA/COASTAL FOG MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE SINCE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER AND KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

TUE INTO WED RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS UPPER LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA FINALLY MOVES SE TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE WAVES LOOK TO PHASE
TOGETHER WED INTO THUR AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW STARTS TO FORM OVER
THE DESERT SW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED WHICH SHOULD HAVE
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPS THUR MORNING
SHOULD REACH FREEZING MAINLY FOR COLLEGE STATION OVER TO
HUNTSVILLE. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE EARLY THUR MORNING FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP FOR THESE
SAME AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE ENDING THROUGH THE MORNING SO
DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT. STILL WILL MENTION TO
KEEP PEOPLE ON THEIR TOES AFTER A RAPID INCREASE IN TEMPS FOLLOWED
BY THE COLD FRONT.

39

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURES CONTINUING TO FALL IN AND AROUND THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST
THIS AFTN...WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE/STRONG EAST FLOW
OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. STILL EXPECTING THIS COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE E/NE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED PCPN
AND SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTH. THIS DEEPENING SOUTH-
ERLY FLOW SUN/MON COULD PRODUCE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVEL-
OPMENT OF SEA FOG (AS WARMER/MOIST AIR MOVES ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS). THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MODELS
STILL FORECASTING THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON/AROUND WED NIGHT. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  57  52  61  60 /  60  40  50  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              52  65  60  69  64 /  60  50  30  40  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  66  61  68  62 /  50  50  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41



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