Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 102147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
After a chilly start this morning, not much in the way of
significant impacts from weather are expected for the next several
days, as a general warming trend is expected for the rest of the
weekend. A couple weak fronts should manage to push at least
partly into the area, but don`t look to do much beyond pause the
warming and bring a stretch of low rain chances to the area
through the week.

Tonight through Monday...
High pressure continues to slide across the Ohio Valley today. As
it slides off, easterly winds will become southeasterly and
further establish onshore flow. After a partial break in clouds
this morning, overcast skies have returned to the vast majority of
the area as Gulf moisture increases. There is a chance for some
showers tonight into Sunday as a very ill-defined midlevel
shortwave should move through the area, but soundings show a
pretty dry environment above the low-level saturation, so don`t
expect more than some weak warm-advection showers as we move into
a pre- frontal environment. Perhaps the more notable weather
feature will be the increase in temperatures, as low temps tonight
will likely be similar to our recent high temperatures thanks to
the influx of warmer, more moist air. High temperatures will also
be warmer, with places closer to the coast reaching into the mid
70s for Sunday and Monday. On Monday, a weak front should push at
least partly into the area. Guidance pretty unanimously brings
this front near the coast, though there isn`t a whole lot of upper
support for the front as upper flow remains disturbingly close to
zonal for such a surface solution. Given the relatively low impact
from such a weak front, have gone ahead and followed the guidance,
even if there is some doubt it will make it so far south. If that
doesn`t pan out, the difference will be little more than a
moderate wind shift and a few degrees of temperature.

Tuesday into next weekend...
As mentioned in the previous section, the first front will do
little more than slightly set back the warming trend. Though there
may be some question as to exactly where this will happen, the
front then looks to stall and slowly wash out of the next day or
so, stretching rain chances out into the middle of next week. By
that time, a reinforcing front looks to move through, which will
continue the potential for showers and maybe a rumble of thunder,
though some pretty fair midlevel warming looks to take place, and
the environment looks at least weakly capped. However, high
pressure in that front`s wake will at least make temperatures
notably cooler for a day or so. However, the progressive pattern
looks to continue, with the high moving on and onshore flow
returning to start a new warming trend into the late week. Beyond
then, look for yet another front to move through the area, but
good luck in trying to establish a solid timeframe on it. There is
considerable spread, not just between different models, but within
individual ensemble suites. For example, high temps in the 12Z GEFS
for Intercontinental at the end of next week range from 58 degrees
to 75 degrees. If meaningful, this would indicate a slight nudge
towards the warmer scenario preferred by the last shift. And,
given that a more meaningful front will require a more amplified
pattern, and this appears to be emerging in the operational
guidance, I am similarly inclined to slow things down a bit and
keep it warmer into Saturday. That said, I only nudged temps up a
bit from the previous shift`s compromise, and keep a bit of a
hedge towards a cooler scenario. In honor of today`s Army-Navy
game, a football metaphor: the forecast is essentially punting
now in hopes that the next run of models will give us better field
position on the next drive.

Luchs

&&

.MARINE...
Will continue the SCEC 20-60nm and transition over to an SCA tonight
with the expectation that winds will increase and seas will begin to
build.  As gradient tightens up this evening and throughout the
night with LLJ axis moving over SETX Sunday and Sunday night winds
may approach 20 knots in the far coastal waters. May see some sea
fog threat Monday after 06z for the Matagorda bay area and possibly
even into the Galveston Bay region by 12z. Confidence west is much
higher than near Galveston Bay. Weak cold front stalls inland late
Monday with a stronger cold front arriving Wednesday night. At least
a short period of SCA conditions in the wake of the front before it
returns back as a warm front early Friday. May have a great chance
of sea fog with the warm frontal passage.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      49  72  60  69  54 /  30  30  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              50  74  65  75  62 /  20  30  30  20  20
Galveston (GLS)            58  71  66  70  66 /  10  20  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 PM CST this
     afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...45


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