Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 212315
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
615 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH A SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT OVER NEW
MEXICO AHEAD OF IT. FARTHER EAST... A CUTOFF LOW WAS CHURNING OVER
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE KEEPING THINGS NICE AND DRY
OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED US TO HEAT UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS OF 2 PM...
WITH MORE QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE
60S.

THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE TROUGH WILL PICK UP THE
REMAINING ENERGY FROM THE NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE AND SHIFT THE RIDGE
OFF TOWARDS THE EAST. EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR WITH LITTLE FANFARE
BEYOND AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE/VE BEEN
EXPERIENCING. DESPITE WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES APPEAR SCANT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
/STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF/ HAS
KEPT MOISTURE FROM RETURNING TO THE REGION. FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ACCORDINGLY. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM BY SUNDAY... SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL RESUME AND
TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.

TAKING A LOOK AT NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A MID-WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE FAR
EXTENDED FORECAST /NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY/ ACCORDINGLY. THIS
IS STILL CLOSE TO A WEEK OUT AND ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS WILL NEED
TO BE MADE TO THE FORECAST...BUT THAT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT BEST
SHOT AT RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

14

MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN AN E-NE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT SO
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND AN SCEC IS IN EFFECT FOR THE 20-60
NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT THU-SUN AS THE LOW
OVER THE SW GULF WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND LIGHTER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  83  58  81  58 /   0   0  10   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  83  58  81  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  81  68  79  66 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38



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