Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011725
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE
BEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY TO BE EAST OF A GLS-IAH-UTS LINE. WILL
CARRY VCSH FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY AND AMEND THIS AFTERNOON IF ANY TSRA
DEVELOP IN/AROUND TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT INLAND SITES. IFR/LIFR LEVELS
ALONG WITH SOME SHRA COULD DEVELOP TOO. THE AREA SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY
QUICKER LIFTING OF THE MORNING LOW STUFF TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH WINDS.

COLD FRONT IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE BOUNDARY AND WIND
SHIFT MOVING THROUGH THE CLL AREA 05Z-07Z (MIDNIGHT-2AM)...THE IAH AREA
08Z-10Z (2AM-4AM)...AND THE GLS AREA 10Z-12Z (5AM-7AM). EXPECT TO SEE
SHRA/TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS QUICKLY BURNED OFF THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALSO FALLS IN BETWEEN VERY MOIST AIR TO THE EAST
WITH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST. KLCH SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SHOWING PWATS AT 2.25" WHILE KCRP SOUNDING SHOWING A 1.60" PWAT
WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700MB. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS TO HAVE MOST OF THIS COVERED. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POP
AND MAX T GRIDS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE
ARE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH HAVE LED TO PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. LOOK FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE ONCE MIXING OCCURS AFTER
SUN RISE. THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN AROUND 15-16Z TODAY AND SHOULD
SEE VFR CIGS AFTER THAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SECOND THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF A KHOU/KIAH/KCXO LINE. WILL CARRY
VCSH FOR A FEW OF THE HOUSTON AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS. MAIN
MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS EAST THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER BASIN AND
SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA IN THESE AREAS. THINK
IF ANY TSRA DO DEVELOP IT WILL BE EAST OF THESE TERMINALS.

FINALLY LOOK FOR A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR THUR MORNING. HAVE ADDED
TAF LINES TO COVER CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE AREA. DO NOT SEE QUITE AS MUCH FOG AS
WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 5KTS OVERNIGHT.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED POPS FARTHER INLAND.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST
MOISTURE AXIS WAS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH...EAST...AND INLAND OF THE SABINE. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO
MEXICO.

THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE BEST LIFT...DYNAMICS...AND INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SE TX SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

GOOD WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND
MINOR FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE QPF UNDER 1 INCH FOR THE EVENT.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A COUPLE OF COOL AND DRY AUTUMN
DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR SE TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN OFF OF THE GULF
WILL BEGIN EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

40

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND
THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS APPROACHING MODERATE
LEVELS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE UPPER TX COAST FROM LATE
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 7 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER ON
SUNDAY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  76  92  68  83 /  20  10  40  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  77  91  74  83 /  30  10  30  60  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  79  87  78  82 /  30  10  20  70  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42


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