Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 241523
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
A BEAUTIFUL STRING OF DAYS AHEAD FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITHIN A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND A LIGHT VARIABLE BREEZE
MAKES FOR A PRISTINE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RECENT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOUNTING RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING STABILITY
AND STEERING ANY INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF
INTO THE MIDWESTERN U.S.. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRIEST AIR OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ADVECTED IN ON ENTIRE
COLUMN NORTHERLY FLOW ORIENTED EAST OF THE APPROACHING MID-UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE BEHAVIOR TODAY...WITH THE
MORNING CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WIND FIELD AFFORDING MANY
INTERIOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE COOLEST SPOT WAS CONROE AT 50F. A WARMER WEEKEND AS THE MID-
LEVELS WARM TO AROUND 17C...A LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR MASS WITH GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW...AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE MIDDLE
80S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW UPPER 80F READINGS TOMORROW. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS TO CONTINUE. A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KLBX WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT BASED ON LOW CONFIDENCE REMOVED MENTION
FROM TAF. 14

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMER ON THE ISLAND FOR LOWS
ALL WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING BUILDS EASTWARD AND OUT INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY TURNING WINDS ACROSS SETX TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING NOTICEABLY ON MONDAY...MAY EVEN APPROACH
BREEZY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOISTURE
RETURNS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY
INCREASING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLOW
AND STALL OVER N TX KEEPING SETX IN WAA WITH WEAK S/W FORCING TUE
AND WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY BY THIS POINT
WEDNESDAY WITH ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AS UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND BLEND IT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE REGION ON FRIDAY SETTING
US UP FOR A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AROUND THE 1ST OF NOVEMBER. 45

&&

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS... WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL ENCOURAGE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BY
SATURDAY EVENING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE GULF. ANTICIPATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GENERATING BUILDING SEAS... STRONG
WINDS MAY WARRANT AN SCEC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  58  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  54  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  64  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43



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