Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
FXUS64 KHGX 280511
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Little change made to this set of TAFs, as things seem largely on
track. Main exception is at LBX, which has slid into IFR a few
hours early. There is certainly the potential for the sites which
are forecast to see IFR visibility from fog to slip even lower for
periods, but given how poorly trying to pick those periods out
worked last night, will refrain from attempting TEMPOs again
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/
Once again looking like another quiet night with weak high
pressure over SE Texas allowing for winds to decouple tonight with
clear skies. There is still enough low level moisture that patchy
fog and some dense fog will be possible for commute hours in the
morning. Aloft, an upper level ridge should edge over much of
Texas for the weekend keeping rain chances out of the forecast.
The next best chance of rain looks to come Halloween into Tuesday.
Upper ridge shifts east by then with the possibility of a weak
shortwave trough moving over the area. Higher moisture axis may
set up Monday but west of the area through S Tx. This axis may
move over the area Tuesday. ECMWF shows better rain chances
Tuesday with this moisture axis and the weak short wave moving out
to the NE. Overall think rain chances will be low for Halloween
night except for areas between Sugar Land and Victoria.
When will the next cold front push through the area? That`s a good
question and the prospects of a frontal passage do not look good
through the next 10 days and we typically don`t trust any model
solution or trend beyond 7-8 days. Both the GFS and ECMWF are
showing very different solutions that far out but neither really
indicates any frontal passage.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/
With a persistent surface and upper air pattern, tonight and
tomorrow should largely be a repeat of the past couple days. At
least some shallow ground fog seems a fair expectation at most
sites, and have begun to create the skeleton for MVFR visibilities
and at the foggier sites, some IFR visibilities as well. Did bring
in some few/sct mentions at low altitudes from IAH north - if UTS
and CXO from last night are any indication, these may need to
become cigs later tonight.
Not a real big fan of how HOU is structured for late tonight, but
none of the changes I would make would actually impact the flight
category and the TAF is long enough as is. So for now will keep
with continuity in the forecast rather than introduce pointless
small tweaks. Suffice to say, patchy fog and/or some scraps of low
cloud are expected, but should not alter conditions appreciably.
May make this a bit more explicit in the next cycle once a couple
lines drop off.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 86 63 87 64 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 65 86 65 87 64 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 73 83 72 82 72 / 10 10 10 10 10