Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
FXUS64 KHGX 272055
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
355 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across
areas north of Interstate 10 this afternoon, with the majority of
development aided by a northward moving outflow boundary now
stretching from near Temple to Palestine. While some modest
stabilization has been able to occur behind the boundary allowing
for convection to quickly dissipate, areas south and west of the
Houston metro have seen additional breaks in clouds this afternoon
has promoted additional heating an isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible in these areas through early evening. Stronger
cells will continue to be capable of 25-35 MPH wind gusts and
locally heavy rain but this threat will continue to diminish with
loss of heating this evening. And interestingly, as a result of
the intermittent rain and cloud cover today, temperatures this
afternoon have ranged from the mid 70s (IAH at 79 as of 3 PM) to
low 90s. Despite this "cool" afternoon for parts of the Houston
metro, IAH`s record low high temperature of 79 remains intact as
the airport reached 84 degrees earlier this morning.
Expect a mostly dry night across the region tonight, but may see
coastal convergence produce a few isolated showers along the coast
tonight. Have only included silent PoPs to account for this
possibility tonight with limited agreement amongst higher
resolution guidance. Otherwise, expect overnight lows in the mid
70s to low 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Afternoon surface analysis shows a surface trough/ reflection
from an upper disturbance over northwest Louisiana stretching from
North Central Texas into the Arklatex. With little change in this
overall feature expected over the next 24 hours, East Texas remaining
in between two ridges tomorrow, and precipitable water values
climbing to near 2 inches during the afternoon, expect another
round of showers and thunderstorms across the region tomorrow with
heating. Likely areas for development appear to be both along the
sea breeze tomorrow across the southern half of the region, with
northern areas possibly seeing an isolated diurnally driven storm
or activity that focuses along the surface trough north of the
region propagating southward along outflow. While overall
convective coverage is anticipated to be lower tomorrow with
precipitable water values a bit lower than today, but anything
that develops will again be capable of brief heavy rain.
Temperatures tomorrow will be warmer than today with less
anticipated rain, with highs reaching into the upper 80s to mid
The extended portion of the forecast will see a return to a more
typical summertime pattern as mid-level heights gradually rise
with upper ridging building farther east into Texas. Diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly along
the sea breeze during the late morning and afternoon hours, with
high temperatures gradually rising back into the upper 80s along
the coast to upper 90s inland.
A few showers may continue to move across the offshore waters this
afternoon before diminishing overnight. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms may begin to develop during the early morning hours
again tomorrow, but are not expected to be as widespread as today.
Light to moderate southerly winds should continue into the weekend.
Seas will be lingering around 3 feet today but decrease some as
winds decrease for the end of the week. Tide levels will likely
remain near normal levels or maybe a half foot above normal.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 95 76 96 76 / 30 30 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 77 95 77 95 78 / 20 40 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 91 83 91 82 / 20 20 10 20 10