Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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421
FXUS62 KMLB 131525
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1025 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Weak frontal boundary over N FL in the process of being the bridged
by an H100-H70 anticyclone over the Carolinas/Deep South and the Atlc
ridge axis centered just south of Bermuda. H100-H70 mean flow has
diminished significantly over the past 24hrs...from S/SE 20-25KTS to
E/SE arnd 10KTS. Moisture pooling within the frontal trof has
saturated the airmass up to H60 per the KJAX 12Z RAOB with lyr PWat
values arnd 1.75".  Moisture profile decreases to the south with
KXMR/KTBW PWat dropping to 1.25"-1.50", then to arnd 1.00" at
KMFL/KEYW. RAP40 analysis shows sparse low lvl moisture upstream
over the Bahamas with H100-H70 PWat values dropping to arnd 60pct.

Aloft, analysis shows the FL peninsula under the ascending right
rear quad of an H30-H20 jet streak moving off the ern seaboard,
generating a respectable pocket of upr lvl divergence and mid lvl
omega lift along the I-4 Corridor.  KVAX WSR-88D showing light to
moderate stratiform precip limited to the immediate vcnty of the
frontal boundary, north of Ocala/Lake George/Flagler Beach...no deep
convection present.

Frontal boundary should sag far enough south to push precip line
into the CWA, but will be limited primarily to areas along and north
of the I-4 Corridor. GFS MOS continues far too aggressive with PoPs
as high as 60pct...will continue to undercut with precip chances AOB
40pct. Higher cloud cover today along with an early sea breeze
formation will keep temps a few deg cooler than recent days...aftn
maxes in the U70s/L80s...except M70s along the coast from Cape
Canaveral northward.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 14/12Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 14/01Z...N of KISM-KTIX...N-NE 7-11KTS...S of KISM-
KTIX E/SE 8-12KTS. Btwn 14/01Z-14/04Z...N of KISM-KTIX bcmg N/NE 3-
6KTS...S of KISM-KTIX bcmg E/NE 3-6KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 13/17Z...N of KISM-KTIX areas IFR cigs btwn
FL005-009 lcl LIFR cigs blo FL005...vcnty KDAB ocnl LIFR vsbys in
FG. Btwn 13/17Z-13/24Z...N of KISM-KTIX chc MVFR shras. Btwn 14/00Z-
14/06Z...N of KLEE-KTIX slgt chc MVFR shras. Aft 14/06Z...W of KMLB-
KOBE ptchy MVFR/lcl IFR vsbys in BR/FG.

&&

.MARINE...
Frontal boundary stalled over north FL has disrupted the lcl pgrad,
resulting in vrbl sfc/bndry lyr winds acrs the lcl Atlc...light to
gentle N/NE breeze from Cape Canaveral northward, veering to E/SE
south of the Cape. Favorable boating conds to continue with seas
running 2-4FT nearshore and 3-5FT offshore, up to 6FT in the Gulf
Stream. However, these are largely due to a long pd easterly
swell...no cautionary statements necessary due to the light winds.
High moisture pooling within the frontal trof will combine with the
light winds and cool shelf waters to generate a pocket of dense fog
thru early aftn. Chc of shras this aftn thru late evng from Cape
Canaveral northward.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Listed below are the record warm lows for today. Morning low temps
point to a potential for new records at Daytona, Orlando, and
Sanford.


         02/13       7AM Min
DAB:    65 1959         68
MCO:    69 1900         69
SFB:    65 1994         70
MLB:    69 1959         68
VRB:    69 1959         63
FPR:    69 2013         62

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Long Term/Impact WX...Pendergrast



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