Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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258
FXUS65 KPUB 171059
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
459 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Far Southeast Plains...

Models consistent on depicting a severe weather threat over the far
southeast plains late this afternoon and evening.  This area,
primarily including Baca, Prowers, eastern Las Animas and southern
Bent Counties, will see decent low level moisture convergence as
moist SE breezes oppose dry SW breezes in this vicinity.  In
addition, 0-6 km bulk shear values will be getting into the range to
support supercell development. Forecast soundings indicate a CAP
will hold on most of the day out that way before dissipating late in
the afternoon. By that time, lifted indices at KSPD should be around
-5 with surface based CAPES around 1400 j/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear
values around 40 knots.  So, if the CAP indeed dissipates and storms
go up, they could easily go severe.  The primary threats with any
such storms would be hail an inch or more in diameter, wind gusts to
60 mph or more, locally heavy rain and lightning.  The National
Weather Service Storm Prediction Center currently has the far
southeast plains under a slight risk for severe weather today and
this looks good based on current indications.

Elsewhere, isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible today but storm coverage and intensity should be pretty
low.  Most of the mountains and high valleys will probably see very
little activity again today as dry air continues to infiltrate those
regions.  Surface dewpoints up there remain widespread in the 30s
with satellite derived Total Precipitable Water values remaining
below average.  So, for storms outside of the slight risk area on
the plains, the primary concerns today will be wind gusts to around
50 mph and lightning.  The dry air in the high country should bode
well for the burn scar areas today, keeping the flash flood threat
to a minimum.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Primary longer term concerns are temperatures and pops as varying
degrees of upper ridging occurs over the forecast district into
Wednesday in combination with gradually increasing atmospheric
moisture.

Overall, pops are projected to run near to below mid to late
climatological averages over the majority of the CWFA from Friday
into next Wednesday, with highest potential of more widespread
precipitation anticipated Sunday and Wednesday.

Have depicted primarily afternoon and evening isolated to
scattered pops at times during the longer term in combination with
continued minimal fire weather concerns and low-grade gradient
winds.

Also, maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to run above
climatological averages over the majority of the forecast district
during the longer term with warmest temperatures anticipated from
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

A few severe storms will be possible across the far southeast
Colorado plains late in the afternoon into the evening.  The primary
threats from any such storms will include hail an inch or more in
diameter, wind gusts to 60 mph or more, locally heavy rain and
lightning. Elsewhere, isolated afternoon and evening storms are
possible today but the overall storm coverage and intensity should
be pretty low.  Primary threats from these storms will be wind gusts
to around 50 mph and lightning.  Generally VFR across the flight
area today except in areas of precipitation where MVFR to LIFR
conditions can be expected.  Thunderstorms are not included the
KCOS, KPUB or KALS terminal forecasts at this time.  The odds of
storms at these locations looks pretty low today.  However, it could
be close at KCOS.  Thunderstorms may need to be added there at the
last minute pending convective trends in the afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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